Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

Thanks @brideck for alerting me!

I believe in the power of 2.5X (or less!)

Mufasa is still in a couple dozen theaters pulling in a few hundred bucks per day heading in to Easter weekend, but I don't think we should wait any longer to do a final summary that Christmas movie.

Mufasa made about $40 Million in profit.

I think this is a good example of how daunting those huge $200+ Million production budgets are for all of Disney's various flagship studios. You really need to get closer to a Billion in global box office to start pulling in decent profit for mega-budgets like Mufasa. Especially when you consider the foreign box office generally nets an American studio only about 40% of the ticket sales, compared to the 60% of ticket sales American box office sends to Burbank.

Here's how that 2024 money maker looked for Burbank...

Mufasa: $200 Production, $100 Marketing, $153 Domestic, $186 Overseas = $39 Million Profit

View attachment 853586

Mufasa: The Lion King (2024) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Mufasa: The Lion King (2024) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

I have it more like 110+. Maybe heavy on the plus since it really swelled in the back half and that may make the backend more asymmetric than usual.

Good news is we can swing back around to this one pretty shortly. Deadline’s box office tournament with more granular details will kick off in May.

 

[HoustonHorn]

It's a good time. We see old movie releases all the time in the theater. I remember seeing Empire Strikes Back at a theater during COVID. We had a private screening. It was really fun.

I'm going with my buddy and his two sons (his oldest is one of my Godsons) on Saturday.

My buddy and I saw it opening night at midnight on the IMAX here in town. It was so bizarre leaving the theatre and the lobby looked like mid-day, and it was probably about 3AM, with tons of folks lined up for the 3:30 (AM!) show. Great times.

Anyway, this is my first time seeing a movie in the Cinemark 4D theatre with the moving seats. I'm excited. Sith is my 3rd favorite of the main 9 movies, and is probably 4th of all of the theatrical releases.

 

[TP2000]

Go Hornets!

I owe you a drink for that one.

 

[Ghost93]

Seems like Rotten Tomatoes no longer allows you to see the average score of a movie, which is a shame as that's often how I determined whether to see a movie.

I thought the average score was more reliable than the percentage of critics who liked a film. For example a movie could have 100% with all critics thinking its a "fine" 6.5/10, but a more divisive movie with 68% could have a higher average score of 7.5 or 8/10 if it's a situation where it's a love it or hate it type of movie.

I bet it won't impact the box office too drastically however as I still know a lot of people who don't get how Rotten Tomatoes works.

 

[LittleBuford]

Agreed, Anora left me feeling emotionally devastated. It has a completely different aim than Pretty Woman as a film.

It's also not really a movie with "heroes."

My original post somehow got deleted in the cleanup, so allow me to piggyback on yours to state again how much I enjoyed Anora (one of the best films I’ve seen in recent years), how deserving I feel it is of the accolades it’s received, and how highly I recommend it to those who don’t mind gritty, mature content.

 

[Phroobar]

I always make sure to check the content ratings of a movie to make sure it conforms with my personal viewing habits and that I'm comfortable with it.

 

[Chi84]

I always make sure to check the content ratings of a movie to make sure it conforms with my personal viewing habits and that I'm comfortable with it.

Makes sense. Whenever I see excessive gore warnings I tend to stay away.

 

[Phroobar]

Makes sense. Whenever I see excessive gore warnings I tend to stay away.

I do the same with excess nudity and profanity. I've found excess gore gets stupid and ridiculous after a while.

The anger in excess profanity just hurts emotionally. I don't think I could endure 500 instances of it in a 2h+ movie.

 

[Chi84]

I do the same with excess nudity and profanity. I've found excess gore gets stupid and ridiculous after a while.

The anger in excess profanity just hurts emotionally. I don't think I could endure 500 instances of it in a 2h+ movie.

Don't ever watch Succession! The only adjective they know is the f-word - makes no difference what is being described lol.

 

[DKampy]

Makes sense. Whenever I see excessive gore warnings I tend to stay away.

My Wife is the same as you…. Sometimes I will watch a movie first to see if it would be tough for her to sit through…. Which I did for The Substance…. Which my wife watched anyway despite my warnings after seeing all the awards attention it was getting…,it actually became one of her favorite films of last year

With myself it depends how the gore is used… if it is all about the gory details like Saw or Terrifier and nothing more…. That does not sound like an enjoyable time at the cinema

 

[Chi84]

My Wife is the same as you…. Sometimes I will watch a movie first to see if it would be tough for her to sit through…. Which I did for The Substance…. Which my wife watched anyway despite my warnings after seeing all the awards attention it was getting…,it actually became one of her favorite films of last year

With myself it depends how the gore is used… if it is all about the gory details like Saw or Terrifier and nothing more…. That does not sound like an enjoyable time at the cinema

For me, it’s realistic violence or gore. Stuff like The Walking Dead is so fake it’s mostly (not all) funny.

 

[Andrew C]

The Walking Dead is so fake it’s mostly (not all) funny.

Nah...once what's his face showed up and smashed what's his face with a bat, I was done....

 

[Chi84]

Nah...once what's his face showed up and smashed what's his face with a bat, I was done....

That’s why I included “(not all).” I knew in advance and skipped that episode. But I heard they lost half their audience with that episode.

I loved Yellowstone, 1883 and the first season of 1923. Then Taylor Sheridan lost his mind and decided his audience wanted a season of sexual violence. Strange.

 

[Dranth]

Makes sense. Whenever I see excessive gore warnings I tend to stay away.

Child or animal torture is really the only thing for me that gives me pause. Now if I were to see some of the stuff in movies in real life? No way, but on a screen knowing it is all fake, sure.

 

[brideck]

Child or animal torture is really the only thing for me that gives me pause. Now if I were to see some of the stuff in movies in real life? No way, but on a screen knowing it is all fake, sure.

Yeah, I've seen some real stomach-turning stuff up on the big screen -- the unrated director's cut of The House That Jack Built comes to mind, among others -- but I don't really have any red lines, at least not in stuff that gets theatrically released.

I always think of the more intense elements of a movie as an opportunity for emotional response practice in the unlikely (but real) event that I ever find myself in an actual crisis situation. A lot of people tend to shut down during an emergency because of the flood of novel stressors that come along with one.

 

[donaldtoo]

I saw the original Friday the 13th in the theater shortly before I graduated high school in 1980. Was not a fan.
Terror Train came out a few months later, and 2 girl friends of mine from school talked me into taking them. They were friends and paid their own way. They each sat on either side of me. There were so many jump scares in that movie, that I never had so many bruises on my arms since…!!!!!
After that, no more.
I loved the attention from them, but it was painful…!!!!!
I can do spooky, but no more horror and gore.

 

[Chi84]

Yeah, I've seen some real stomach-turning stuff up on the big screen -- the unrated director's cut of The House That Jack Built comes to mind, among others -- but I don't really have any red lines, at least not in stuff that gets theatrically released.

I always think of the more intense elements of a movie as an opportunity for emotional response practice in the unlikely (but real) event that I ever find myself in an actual crisis situation. A lot of people tend to shut down during an emergency because of the flood of novel stressors that come along with one.

You’ll do well in the zombie apocalypse.

 

[TP2000]

I believe in the power of 2.5X (or less!)

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Now that's interesting, because it seems to prove my current 60/40 mix is very fair, and even a bit too generous to the studios on my part. And yet it's also adding in almost an additional $300 Million in revenue from "Home Entertainment" (please don't tell me that's DVD's!) and "Television and Streaming".

But it reinforces the Google searches that told me most big Hollywood studio movies are lucky to earn 60% of ticket sales domestically, and 40% of ticket sales overseas for their American studios. Deadline seems to downgrade that a bit to around 58/38, but I'm going to stick with 60/40 and err on the side of Burbank. The Deadline equation also reinforces that using half the production budget for "Marketing" is a good practice, and if anything is erring on Burbank's side just like the 60/40 thing.

I'm guessing they consider "Home Entertainment" to be someone renting Mufasa via Amazon Prime for the night, versus "TV and Streaming" as someone who watched Mufasa via their existing Disney+ subscription payments. How on earth they get those numbers is a mystery, especially considering Disney+ is only creating a few hundred million in revenue per quarter.

Here's how my now-beloved box office profit equation works on Mufasa. It gets to a $39 Million profit from a net 60/40 box office take of $339 Million. But I don't add unknown profit from future streaming or rental estimates.

Mufasa: $200 Production, $100 Marketing, $153 Domestic, $186 Overseas = $39 Million Profit

If you were to create a similarly easy and breezy format for the equation, but using Deadline's inclusion of studio finance fees and personnel overhead (added to "Production"), plus an assumption of future TV rental/stream revenues, it looks like this;

Deadline's Version:
Mufasa: $300 Production, $135 Marketing, $147 Domestic, $173 Overseas, $290 Home TV = $175 Million Profit

The key to that big jump in profit seems to be based on an assumption that Mufasa will generate an extra $290 Million in profit in the future based on TV rentals and Disney+ subscriptions. That's certainly not "box office", and it's money that isn't there now as the movie leaves theaters, or even next fiscal quarter, or the next quarter after that.

How much time is Deadline giving Mufasa to generate that $290 Million in future profit from streaming services? Two years? Five years? Thirty years?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Thanks to the fake 2.5 multiplayer and the fake budget numbers for Snow White 2025, Snow White 2025 will only lose a little over 200 million on paper.

 

[TP2000]

Thanks to the fake 2.5 multiplayer and the fake budget numbers for Snow White 2025, Snow White 2025 will only lose a little over 200 million on paper.

Give me a few minutes to get another cocktail napkin just a bit damp, and then I'll get to work on that math!