Like much of the USA market….my first introduction to Bong Joon-jo was Parasite… i had heard his par stuff was great…. I will definitely keep my eye out for those films
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
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TP2000
Well-Known Member
Well, I do like quite a few movies actually. But with modern technology in my home now, I only go to the theater about once every year or two. Post-Covid, Elvis and Barbie got me back in '23. In '24?... nothing got me to the theater.
As for the small indy arthouse films that Disney's Searchlight Pictures turns out, none of those are my scene at all. They all seem rather dreary and/or just plain smutty to me usually. I'm not a total prude, and my taste in artsy films trends very much in the John Waters vein (I've seen all of his, own several on DVD), and those always make me laugh. I like to laugh when I'm at the movies in general. Murder, gore, dreariness, and smut usually aren't big draws for me.
We can certainly do the Searchlight Pictures movies for '24. I'll throw in A Complete Unknown, although it's profit/loss shouldn't really count for '24 since like Mufasa it wasn't released until Christmas. But it's there, and interestingly when I Googled its production budget the results were all about how expensive it was for an arthouse movie. IMDB has it pegged at $65 Million, though some trade papers had it as high as $70 Million. I'd never heard of it until now, so I have to assume the marketing budget was very small. I think it's fair to give it a marketing/distribution budget of notably less than half its production, so maybe $25 Million instead of $35 Million?
Ladies and gentlemen, the box office data for Searchlight Pictures in 2024!....
2024 = $13.8 Million Loss
Kinds of Kindess: Production $15, Marketing $7, Domestic $3, Overseas $5 = $14 Million Loss
A Real Pain: Production $3, Marketing $2, Domestic $4.6, Overseas $0.6 = $200,000 Profit
2025:
A Complete Unknown: Production $65, Marketing $25, Domestic $19, Overseas N/A = $71 Million Loss & Narrowing
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easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
Saw the preview for Superman during Sonic 3 yesterday. It just looked weird. The guy playing Superman didn’t seem like he could pass for Clark Kent to me. He looked like a giant lol. The whole trailer just felt off. I dunno
easyrowrdw
Well-Known Member
Memories of Murder is great. It’s based on a true story too. I think I’d recommend any of Bong’s movies, but I do think Parasite and Memories are his best. The Host is also a lot of fun.
Or, and just hear me out, you live under a rock and don't actually pay attention to modern movies, which is what I meant by saying that it'd be great if you actually liked movies. We all know that you love a ton of stuff, so long as it's at least 40 years old. But you don't like movies today... or know anything about them.
Chalamet is pretty popular and has reportedly turned in a great performance as Dylan here. A decent comp for this would probably be Mangold's other musician biopic Walk the Line, which ended up just shy of $120m domestic, though that one had the benefit of being released before Thanksgiving, so it got the full holiday period to play through.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Just FYI, movies released during a certain calendar year count toward that calendar year, even if a majority of their box office is earned the next calendar year.
So all movies released in 2024 count toward 2024 even if most of their box office will be earned during 2025. This is why Avatar 2 counted toward 2022 and not 2023 even though it released the week before Christmas 2022.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Not actually true. But as with most folks who post on message boards, we aren't generally the type to get invites to the Met Gala or the Oscars or Mar-A-Lago for dinner. Likewise, I've never been listed in the Social Register of any city I've lived in, have you? But I wouldn't call that living under a rock.
I do have friends over for dinner often, happily accept most social invitations, and now travel quite a bit in my retirement.
Now that second part of the sentence is fair and more accurate.
I don't spend every other weekend at the multiplex. I only go to movies that really interest me for whatever reason, but I can be swayed by family or close friends. I actually got my entire family to attend Barbie with me, and it was hilariously memorable. The nephews turned up their noses at first, but their wives forced them.
That's why @Disney Analyst so wisely created this thread; so that the individual movie threads can discuss the artistic merits and demerits of individual movies, without getting cluttered up with money talk and profit/loss statements.
The box office data already speaks for itself. It simply needs to be posted and then commented on by us. Free markets speak very loudly and clearly, and are very efficient.
I read the little summary of that movie, and it sounds kind of interesting to be honest. My 1960's tastes were always more Motown than alternative folk rock. The only white bands I liked were the surfers and a few white girl singers like Dusty, Petula and Leslie. The other white bands didn't interest me much, I was a Wall Of Sound and Motown guy from very young. But I imagine if this Bob Dylan movie is done as well as critics say, it will be popular with many.
Still, $65 Million seems like a lot for an artsy niche film like this. Searchlight maybe knows something we don't, though?
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Oh, well we can certainly reframe the 2024 Searchlight Pictures lineup that way if we want.
It's not nearly as financially flattering as before, but it looks like this then...
2024 Searchlight Pictures = $84.8 Million Loss
Kinds of Kindness: Production $15, Marketing $7, Domestic $3, Overseas $5 = $14 Million Loss
A Real Pain: Production $3, Marketing $2, Domestic $4.6, Overseas $0.6 = $200,000 Profit
A Complete Unknown: Production $65, Marketing $25, Domestic $19, Overseas N/A = $71 Million Loss & Narrowing
You don't have to live at the movie theater in order to know what movies exist, but you don't do any of the things that would make you aware of what's going on in the marketplace. Which is why when you say things like this, and proceed to alter your numbers based on that, it's laughable:
"I'd never heard of it until now, so I have to assume the marketing budget was very small."
There's a reason you don't hear about movies, and it's not for lack of marketing. It's because you have removed yourself from the loop and only hear about things if they're a) by Disney or b) such a massive blockbuster that word of mouth reaches you.
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Disney Irish
Premium Member
Not just for Searchlight though, but all Disney movies under any of their studios including Mufasa even though its only had 12 box office days in 2024.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Tbf that’s true for most people and it’s one of numerous reasons why ticket sales continue to decline.
When you factor in a large number of non-IP releases are horror/suspense and biopics, the industry has lost a lot of people who don’t like going to the movies to feel uneasy and who find biopics to be hit-or-miss based on their investment in the subject.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
We did this last year with Poor Things. It's exceedingly silly framing a studio based on 80% of its production spend for a single film that has been out for 5 calendar days in 2024. One that actually seems to be doing well for specialty box office. What's the point?
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
That sure could be true. It's more likely though that they just aren't advertising effectively. I keep up on movies and it's amazing how little some big films show up on my feeds. Example, Mickey 17 was being talked about earlier. I have yet to see a trailer come across my socials, YouTube... I had to search that one out. So it isn't always that someone has removed themselves. I personally believe there's plenty of bigger films that don't get the exposure because of missed placed marketing budgets or crappy algorithms.
It's one thing to make that claim about Mickey 17, which has had its release date shifted 4 times now, had troubling test screenings (which... who cares? It's Bong Joon-ho), and which WB seems to be seeking to actively bury (a la Clint Eastwood's Juror No. 2), and another to make it about A Complete Unknown, which has been pretty widely marketed -- to the point where Chalamet turned up on College GameDay a few weeks back promoting it and immediately went viral among college football fans. [Note: I'm also in Minnesota where I'm sure it's being promoted more because Dylan's from here originally.]
Besides... we have 600+ pages here that more than amply demonstrate how not plugged in said poster is re: movies.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
We must be on different algorithms then, because I've seen ads for Mickey 17 at least 10x since October. Not to mention seeing it several times in theaters in-front of several movies. Targeted marketing is specific for a reason, if you aren't in the target demo they are looking for then it might be why things aren't showing up in your feed.
Its easy to get up-to-date information on upcoming films, if you want to be informed. Its also just as easy to be removed from such information if you don't want it or aren't seeking it out. It should be no surprised that the poster being talked about isn't up-to-date on any new movies as they have admitted to not going out to movies very often.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
That's exactly my point. They might have a good size budget, but I wouldn't know. And that's one of the issues of getting the word out on your film. Balancing targeting certain groups or trusting the algorithm.
Sure it is, and I did, hence finding the trailer. But don't be fooled to think normies are going to do that though. The average person isn't going on Kinocheck to find trailers. If it doesn't show up on something they're watching, they just won't see it.
I guess that makes me a normie since I have no idea what Kinocheck is. All you need is a little interest, a reliable release calendar (e.g. IMDb), and YouTube.
IMDb determines its list of the most anticipated movies by the actual page views of the more than 250 million monthly visitors to IMDb. The website's rankings reflect real user interest and engagement.
Had to see how this differs from Letterboxd's 2025 films sorted by "popularity". I know it's more of a film snob site, but I'm still shocked to see what's at #1.
1) Mickey 17
2) Wake Up Dead Man (Knives Out 3)
3) 28 Years Later
4) The Fantastic Four: First Steps
5) Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)
6) Avatar: Fire and Ash
7) Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
8) Captain America: Brave New World
9) Superman
10) Thunderbolts*
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Do “normies” not know how to Google “upcoming movies in 2025”?
You don’t have to belong to some specific site to find trailers. We live in a world with almost unlimited information, so it’s easy if you want to know.