Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

That's exactly my point. They might have a good size budget, but I wouldn't know. And that's one of the issues of getting the word out on your film. Balancing targeting certain groups or trusting the algorithm.

Sure it is, and I did, hence finding the trailer. But don't be fooled to think normies are going to do that though. The average person isn't going on Kinocheck to find trailers. If it doesn't show up on something they're watching, they just won't see it.

Do “normies” not know how to Google “upcoming movies in 2025”?

You don’t have to belong to some specific site to find trailers. We live in a world with almost unlimited information, so it’s easy if you want to know.

 

[Disney Irish]

I guess that makes me a normie since I have no idea what Kinocheck is. All you need is a little interest, a reliable release calendar (e.g. IMDb), and YouTube.

Don’t worry, I didn’t know what it was either.

 

[DKampy]

Tbf that’s true for most people and it’s one of numerous reasons why ticket sales continue to decline.

When you factor in a large number of non-IP releases are horror/suspense and biopics, the industry has lost a lot of people who don’t like going to the movies to feel uneasy and who find biopics to be hit-or-miss based on their investment in the subject.

Execs of big studios are typically not creatives and want as sure of a path to profits as possible…. I still see original movies all the time….even great ones have a tough time getting attention … even Fall Guy had a touch time with blockbuster marketing and budget plus a good response…and horror and biopics can still do well…I think Michael Jackson’s biopic could be one of the biggest earners next year… even though as of now I don’t really have an interest in it… I suspect it will be watered down… as it appears to be Jackson family approved

Speaking of biopics…. I have seen a Complete Unknown described as an art house film…. I have not see it yet… but from what I understand it is a pretty standard biopic….but it is from the same art house director that gave us The Wolverine and Indiana Jones DOD

 

[DKampy]

That sure could be true. It's more likely though that they just aren't advertising effectively. I keep up on movies and it's amazing how little some big films show up on my feeds. Example, Mickey 17 was being talked about earlier. I have yet to see a trailer come across my socials, YouTube... I had to search that one out. So it isn't always that someone has removed themselves. I personally believe there's plenty of bigger films that don't get the exposure because of missed placed marketing budgets or crappy algorithms.

As someone who also keeps up with movies… I always search out what new trailers Are available… all it takes is once a week I search new trailers on YouTube snd shocking I get the newest trailers… it really is not that tough for anyone interested in movies

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

There's a reason you don't hear about movies, and it's not for lack of marketing. It's because you have removed yourself from the loop and only hear about things if they're a) by Disney or b) such a massive blockbuster that word of mouth reaches you.

When I went to the theater a couple times a month I always had a movie or 2 I was looking forward to just from the previews alone, since 2019 I watch 99% of movies at home and as a result I haven’t even heard of 90% of the movies being discussed here.

It’s a self perpetuating problem, fewer people going to movie A means fewer eyes seeing the trailer for movie B, which leads to fewer people going to movie B, which means fewer eyes seeing the trailer for movie C… Hollywood could really use another must see series like Infinity Stones, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, etc to get people back into the habit of going to the actual theater.

 

[TP2000]

You don't have to live at the movie theater in order to know what movies exist, but you don't do any of the things that would make you aware of what's going on in the marketplace. Which is why when you say things like this, and proceed to alter your numbers based on that, it's laughable:

"I'd never heard of it until now, so I have to assume the marketing budget was very small."

We can certainly guesstimate that the marketing budget for A Complete Unknown was the usual 50% of the production budget. But that's going to set it back by ten million or so and make it's box office performance less flattering. But if you insist...

2024 Searchlight Pictures = $91.8 Million Loss

Kinds of Kindness: Production $15, Marketing $7, Domestic $3, Overseas $5 = $14 Million Loss
A Real Pain: Production $3, Marketing $2, Domestic $4.6, Overseas $0.6 = $200,000 Profit
A Complete Unknown: Production $65, Marketing $32, Domestic $19, Overseas N/A = $78 Million Loss & Narrowing

There's a reason you don't hear about movies, and it's not for lack of marketing. It's because you have removed yourself from the loop and only hear about things if they're a) by Disney or b) such a massive blockbuster that word of mouth reaches you.

Yes, that's mostly true. I heard about Barbie from the neighbor kids at an early summer barbecue. I watched the preview on their sparkly phone and was instantly hooked; I knew I had to see it. I heard about Elvis from some friends I play tennis with, and went to that one with them.

But as for artsy movies like Poor Things? No, my crowd doesn't go in for that sort of thing. And I'm okay with that.

 

[erasure fan1]

I guess that makes me a normie since I have no idea what Kinocheck is. All you need is a little interest, a reliable release calendar (e.g. IMDb), and YouTube.

Do “normies” not know how to Google “upcoming movies in 2025”?

You don’t have to belong to some specific site to find trailers. We live in a world with almost unlimited information, so it’s easy if you want to know.

It's settled then. I guess there's no other reason someone might not see a trailer or not be familiar with a film. It's gotta be you're just actively shutting yourself off. Sorry, my mistake.

 

[TP2000]

I guess that makes me a normie since I have no idea what Kinocheck is. All you need is a little interest, a reliable release calendar (e.g. IMDb), and YouTube.

Is it bad or is it good that when I read Kinocheck in the context of movies, I only thought of the Kinoautomat weird movie thing at the Czechoslovakia Pavilion at Expo '67 in Montreal, but that I didn't see until it showed up at the 1974 Spokane World's Fair?

I mean, that could either make me a real hipster for knowing that bit of movie trivia, or it could make me an old dinosaur watching The Lawrence Welk Show reruns on PBS. Either way, it's still me. Without Googling, I have to assume the word "Kinocheck" has some sort of connection to Czechoslovakia before the USSR collapsed, or simply their unique interactive movies at the 1974 World's Fair.

Right? Or is it something completely different?

 

[MisterPenguin]

IMDb determines its list of the most anticipated movies by the actual page views of the more than 250 million monthly visitors to IMDb. The website's rankings reflect real user interest and engagement.

Minecraft is the only one that isn't part of a cinematic franchise.

People have spoken. They want more of what they like.

Sorta like a TV series. Whether there is an arc in the season or just a bunch of bottle episodes; when people like a set of characters and their high-jinks/drama, they'll tune in* over and over again. In fact, early cinema had many serialized/episodic movies. Usually ending with a cliff hanger.* Movie franchises are as old as movies.


*Zoomers, ask a boomer where those terms come from.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[Disney Irish]

It's settled then. I guess there's no other reason someone might not see a trailer or not be familiar with a film. It's gotta be you're just actively shutting yourself off. Sorry, my mistake.

What is being said is that unless you live under a rock the information is out there and easily obtainable. It’s not like the old days where you only know about upcoming movies by going to the movies and seeing a trailer or seeing it on tv. If one is interested and wants to know about upcoming movies it’s an easy 3 second search. They also literally have YouTube channels dedicated to showing upcoming trailers too. All one has to be is interested enough to find out. If one doesn’t care, well it’s easy to shut one’s self off from that information.

 

[MisterPenguin]

 

[Mr. Sullivan]

That sure could be true. It's more likely though that they just aren't advertising effectively. I keep up on movies and it's amazing how little some big films show up on my feeds. Example, Mickey 17 was being talked about earlier. I have yet to see a trailer come across my socials, YouTube... I had to search that one out. So it isn't always that someone has removed themselves. I personally believe there's plenty of bigger films that don't get the exposure because of missed placed marketing budgets or crappy algorithms.

Your socials are calibrated by you though. If you aren’t seeing something it’s because the algorithm you’ve curated isn’t showing it to you because it doesn’t fit your recognized interests. My socials are mainly film related, so I’ve seen the M17 trailer multiple times since it released.

 

[LSLS]

IMDb determines its list of the most anticipated movies by the actual page views of the more than 250 million monthly visitors to IMDb. The website's rankings reflect real user interest and engagement.

My read into this, I'm not shocked Superman is 1st, it just released their teaser. Really this shouldn't be that big a surprise, all these movies are coming out in the first half of next year. I'd think the closer you get to release date, the more people would be looking at it. So, it'd bode well for the first 3-4 movies which release later in the year, and it could be more worrisome for like Brave New World and Snow White (stress on could be, I'm not using this as any sort of a barometer at this point).

 

[DKampy]

not saying it is anyone here…. However there is a certain sect of angry YouTubers who claim they follow all pop culture… but in reality they only follow certain films to rage over and fire up their base…. They are not going to cover a film such as Mickey 17…. But most movie vloggers who don’t have such biases have mentioned Mickey 17

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Had to see how this differs from Letterboxd's 2025 films sorted by "popularity". I know it's more of a film snob site, but I'm still shocked to see what's at #1.

1) Mickey 17
2) Wake Up Dead Man (Knives Out 3)
3) 28 Years Later
4) The Fantastic Four: First Steps
5) Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)
6) Avatar: Fire and Ash
7) Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
8) Captain America: Brave New World
9) Superman
10) Thunderbolts*

Can you link me to Letterboxd’s list, please?

 

[erasure fan1]

What is being said is that unless you live under a rock the information is out there and easily obtainable.

Yes the info is out there. The point is that not everyone is you or I. You are siding with a losing strategy. A lot of people aren't going to say on some random Tuesdays, "I wonder if there was some movie trailers I missed last week?" Then go on YouTube and seek them out. That's not the norm for the majority of people. I haven't argued that it isn't easy to find the content. Nothing is hard to find with the Internet. I'm saying just because someone might not be that aware of a movie, doesn't mean they live under a rock like you and a few others seem to think. It's the studios job to get the eyes on the content. And getting a handle on that will only improve engagement with films.

Your socials are calibrated by you though. If you aren’t seeing something it’s because the algorithm you’ve curated isn’t showing it to you because it doesn’t fit your recognized interests. My socials are mainly film related, so I’ve seen the M17 trailer multiple times since it released.

You're putting a lot of faith in algorithms. As I said earlier, movies are a huge part of what I interact with. I watch a lot of trailers, trailer breakdowns, movie analysis, general movie news... But m17 never showed up for me. I've watched it a couple times now and guess what, it still hasn't shown up on its own. The point is, it doesn't always work. I don't live under a rock because I didn't see that trailer, it happens. The difference is I went and searched out the new trailers. A lot of people aren't going to do that, it's not important enough in their priorities. And that's fine. Some people just like seeing movies but they don't go searching out trailers to make sure there's not something they missed.

 

[easyrowrdw]

That sure could be true. It's more likely though that they just aren't advertising effectively. I keep up on movies and it's amazing how little some big films show up on my feeds. Example, Mickey 17 was being talked about earlier. I have yet to see a trailer come across my socials, YouTube... I had to search that one out. So it isn't always that someone has removed themselves. I personally believe there's plenty of bigger films that don't get the exposure because of missed placed marketing budgets or crappy algorithms.

Yeah. I posted earlier about Bong’s movies. I’ve seen every film he’s directed (and even a couple of the shorts) but I had not seen anything for Mickey 17 outside of this thread. It hasn’t been pointed at me apparently.

I don’t make it to the theater much (I blame my kids lol) but I enjoy movies and try to see the stuff that really interests me. But I guess I don’t search for new movies as much as I used to. I think part of it is that so many new movies seem to be either remakes or franchises that it’s left me disengaged.

 

[DKampy]

Y
You're putting a lot of faith in algorithms. As I said earlier, movies are a huge part of what I interact with. I watch a lot of trailers, trailer breakdowns, movie analysis, general movie news... But m17 never showed up for me. I've watched it a couple times now and guess what, it still hasn't shown up on its own. The point is, it doesn't always work. I don't live under a rock because I didn't see that trailer, it happens. The difference is I went and searched out the new trailers. A lot of people aren't going to do that, it's not important enough in their priorities. And that's fine. Some people just like seeing movies but they don't go searching out trailers to make sure there's not something they missed.

Most people that enjoy going to the theaters to see a movie don’t think I saw a trailer the other day….let’s go to the movies even though they had no desire to before…they say let’s see what movies are playing at my local Theater… and if there is anything playing that they have not heard of and are curious about… then they will search out the trailer and see if it interests them may see that movie

I always use my parents as a gauge for “the normies” as you call them… they are in their 70’s and do not follow the latest social media trends… they will do the above…For example… when I was visiting home last Christmas…they mentioned should we see a movie…. Looked to see what was playing and decided to see The Iron Claw which I feel got way less promotion then the movies being discussed here

 

[Phroobar]

Yeah. I posted earlier about Bong’s movies. I’ve seen every film he’s directed (and even a couple of the shorts) but I had not seen anything for Mickey 17 outside of this thread. It hasn’t been pointed at me apparently.

I don’t make it to the theater much (I blame my kids lol) but I enjoy movies and try to see the stuff that really interests me. But I guess I don’t search for new movies as much as I used to. I think part of it is that so many new movies seem to be either remakes or franchises that it’s left me disengaged.

I saw the Mickey 17 trailer in front of Sonic 3 in the theater. Not sure why it was there since it wasn't the target audience.