Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Like it or not, it was a business decision made by Disney leadership, including Iger, not a command handed down by a government body.

Exactly.

Or, put another way, it was the free market of Billions of consumers across the planet voting with their wallets which cartoons they will take their children to see at a movie theater.

Like every other time the free market of mass consumers has spoken, their message was very clear.

The only real angle to this story is how long it took Burbank bosses to hear that message. It took a bit longer than it should have, but when you are in an echo chamber and sitting at the same Silver Lake brunch table every weekend, it's hard to hear.

 

[TP2000]

Governmental assaults on protected speech is THE issue here.

Which government agency, either at the Federal level the past four years, or at the State of California level the past 20 years, told Disney what they can and can't put in their children's cartoons that forced them to make this statement?

"When it comes to animated content for a younger audience, we recognize that many parents would prefer to discuss certain subjects with their children on their own terms and timeline." -Disney media statement, December, 2024

Which exact government agency or executive, federal or state, forced Burbank to issue that statement?

 

[TP2000]

Now do an inflation on the budget for The Jungle Book for a better comparison

It's already there in that inflation adjusted data I posted. Adjusted for inflation from 2016, the production budget for The Jungle Book was $218 Million in 2024 dollars. In 2016, the non-adjusted budget was $175 Million. Which given the budget inflation in many recent Burbank movies, makes the $200 Million they just spent on Mufasa seem like a modest discount.

Using the standard 60/40 split for domestic/overseas box office takes, plus a standard assumption that the marketing/distribution budget was one half of the production budget, the inflation adjusted profit or loss looks like this for those two Disney live action remakes of beloved classics...

Jungle Book '16: Budget $218, Marketing $109, Domestic Take $272, Overseas Take $293 = Profit of $238 Million
Mufasa '24: Budget $200, Marketing $100, Domestic Take $68 so far, Overseas Take $86 so far = Loss of $146 Million so far

Mufasa would seem to have about one more week of big box office potential globally, before it starts to drop off in January. Will it get to breakeven and pull in a small profit by February 1st? It seems to be uncomfortably close for Burbank right now.

 

[MisterPenguin]

the diminishing returns on established franchises,

Frozen II, Inside Out II, and Moana II would like to have a word with you...

 

[LittleBuford]

You are absolutely free to control the media your children consume. If that means you don’t let them consume Disney products, that’s fine - Disney is absolutely not entitled to your money.

On the other hand, you are absolutely not entitled to determine what content other people’s children consume or what content Disney produces. When you cheer on or even ignore governmental assaults on a company’s speech because you like the outcome, you have crossed a bright line.

Governmental assaults on protected speech is THE issue here. It is immense, out of all proportion to the petty squabbles we’re used to in America. It will have a monumental impact on the country your children live in.

I place the blame directly and solely at Disney’s feet. No government has forced them to take such a craven decision. The whole thing is a disgrace, and I hope the company’s reputation suffers accordingly. It certainly has in my eyes.

Since the inexcusable deletion of certain posts from a now-locked thread, I have been staying away from the forum (at least as an active participant) and have felt much better for it. I am grateful to you and @Mr. Sullivan for continuing to shine a light on the issue (even if your framing is rather different from mine).

 

[TP2000]

No government has forced them to take such a craven decision.

Agreed. But the decision was forced on Disney by the free market of Billions of consumers around the world who buy tickets to their movies. In particular, children's animated movies aimed at... their own children. No government agency was involved in the creative decisions behind Disney's or Pixar's children's movies, or needed to be involved to get the results Disney saw at the box office for those children's movies the past few years.

It was all done by the audience of a couple Billion free consumers, mostly parents, voting with their wallets.

The whole thing is a disgrace, and I hope the company’s reputation suffers accordingly. It certainly has in my eyes.

The reputation has begun to heal in many parents minds, but is still not healed. It will take time. Some folks may never return to their Disney-spending ways of the past. But some might return, if the product is good enough and the company seems to be genuinely trying to course correct from their decisions of 2020-2023. That will take some time to watch and observe.

As of now, Disney isn't quite as bad off as Bud Light (long term brand image damage and major long term market share loss), but seems to be as bad off as Jaguar (short term brand image damage that has yet to be seen if it can be corrected).

 

[Casper Gutman]

I place the blame directly and solely at Disney’s feet. No government has forced them to take such a craven decision. The whole thing is a disgrace, and I hope the company’s reputation suffers accordingly. It certainly has in my eyes.

Since the inexcusable deletion of certain posts from a now-locked thread, I have been staying away from the forum (at least as an active participant) and have felt much better for it. I am grateful to you and @Mr. Sullivan for continuing to shine a light on the issue (even if your framing is rather different from mine).

Disney absolutely deserves contempt, condemnation, and economic pushback for its cowardly capitulation.

The issue is that a corporation cravenly bowing to forces it fears will impact its profits, proving that it will only stand for civil rights when there is little to no risk, is not surprising. Sadly, it’s the way companies have tended to behave.

Multiple levels of the US government explicitly attacking a corporations right to free speech, employing legislative and legal action to punish and threaten that corporation because it was saying things the government didn’t like, IS new. I cannot think of a historical precedent in American history. And it’s a really big deal.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Here is the other side of the coin:

Disney’s opposition to Florida’s Parental Rights in Education Act, which restricts classroom discussions on sexual orientation and gender identity for children 9 and under, began with public statements that fall under free speech. However, the company went further than expressing an opinion by pausing political donations, advocating for the law’s repeal, and leveraging its significant cultural and economic influence. These actions moved Disney from a neutral business entity to an active participant in a political and cultural conflict. This step into corporate activism may help explain why Florida’s government responded with more than criticism, using legislative action to revoke Disney’s unique self-governance privileges.

The situation is less about Florida attacking Disney “out of the blue” and more about a clash of ideologies. Disney took a political stance by opposing a bill that its proponents framed as protecting young children, and Florida responded by leveraging its governmental authority to counter Disney’s influence. This escalation highlights the unique and controversial nature of the conflict.

From one perspective, Disney exercised its free speech rights; from another, it engaged in political activism and faced political consequences for doing so.

I’m sorry, but this isn’t another perspective or side of the coin, it’s a fundamental, unambiguous misunderstanding of foundational American freedoms. Disney pausing political donations and advocating against a law were completely within its free speech rights - they changed absolutely nothing. The government taking action against you because you don’t give them voluntary donations or advocate for changes to laws is as clearly, unambiguously unconstitutional as anything the government can do. I simply cannot stress enough how much it violates the most basic principles of the US.

 

[TalkingHead]

Frozen II, Inside Out II, and Moana II would like to have a word with you...

Keep going: Mufasa, Furiosa, Joker, The Marvels

 

[DKampy]

Keep going: Mufasa, Furiosa, Joker, The Marvels

All of this is cherry picking…. You can find diminishing returns as well as the opposite at any given point in film history.. as we could. Also include Deadpool and Aliens as film franchises that improved it’s grosses over the last this past year

 

[TalkingHead]

All of this is cherry picking…. You can find diminishing returns as well as the opposite at any given point in film history.. as we could. Also include Deadpool and Aliens as film franchises that improved it’s grosses over the last this past year

Obviously there are exceptions like Deadpool, which benefited from several novelty factors (first MCU entry, Wolverine, R-rating, only Marvel release of the year, etc)

But Alien is exactly the kind diminishing return I’m talking about. It was a surprise hit *by today’s standards* and it did about the same as Covenant when adjusted for inflation.

But it made much less worldwide ($350M) than Prometheus ($400M) unadjusted for inflation. It would be closer to $550M for Prometheus in 2024 dollars. It’s also in the horror genre which has remained resilient post-Covid.

But the Alien is franchise isn’t what it was even in the early 2010s.

 

[DKampy]

Obviously there are exceptions like Deadpool, which benefited from several novelty factors (first MCU entry, Wolverine, R-rating, only Marvel release of the year, etc)

That may be the wrong lesson that is learned…. An R rating does not make a film successful…. Just look at Kraven

But Alien is exactly the kind diminishing return I’m talking about. It was a surprise hit *by today’s standards* and it did about the same as Covenant when adjusted for inflation.

But it made much less worldwide ($350M) than Prometheus ($400M) unadjusted for inflation. It would be closer to $550M for Prometheus in 2024 dollars. It’s also in the horror genre which has remained resilient post-Covid.

But the Alien is franchise isn’t what it was even in the early 2010s.

I agree it was not where it was before Covenant…. That film did a lot of damage to the brand….but I think Romulus. Did turn the franchise around for many….even if I am in the minority and did not care for it…. Every franchise is only one good film away from turning it around

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…down the well here

 

[Dranth]

From one perspective, Disney exercised its free speech rights; from another, it engaged in political activism and faced political consequences for doing so.

This is the problem, there should be no state sponsored political consequences.

It always amazes me how short sighted we are as a spices. People continually mistake now for the future so don't think about how normalizing this kind of action is going to allow it to be turned back on them in the future.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I’m sorry, but this isn’t another perspective or side of the coin, it’s a fundamental, unambiguous misunderstanding of foundational American freedoms. Disney pausing political donations and advocating against a law were completely within its free speech rights - they changed absolutely nothing. The government taking action against you because you don’t give them voluntary donations or advocate for changes to laws is as clearly, unambiguously unconstitutional as anything the government can do. I simply cannot stress enough how much it violates the most basic principles of the US.

More often than not we’re on opposite sides of an argument but I think we’ll always see eye to eye on this one. I thought it was a dumb business decision for Disney to get involved in a highly politicized issue but they had every right to do so, the only retaliation they should have had to worry about was their customers closing their wallets, not the government punishing them.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Can we please not get the box office thread closed…

Luiz see’s Moana 2 hitting 1-1.1 billion.



“
#Moana2 approaches 500M overseas, & 900M mark at Global #BoxOffice despite #Mufasa & #Sonic!

Overseas, #Moana2 grossed STRONG 36.1M on 5th weekend, going actually up +3.7% from last weekend, despite all competition, for a 487.9M intl. cume over 53 markets.

Allied to its 394.6M cume in the US, the #Moana sequel hits a 882.5M Global cume.

900M+ next week already!

Eyeing a 1B-1.1B Global run”

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Can we please not get the box office thread closed…

Luiz see’s Moana 2 hitting 1-1.1 billion.



“
#Moana2 approaches 500M overseas, & 900M mark at Global #BoxOffice despite #Mufasa & #Sonic!

Overseas, #Moana2 grossed STRONG 36.1M on 5th weekend, going actually up +3.7% from last weekend, despite all competition, for a 487.9M intl. cume over 53 markets.

Allied to its 394.6M cume in the US, the #Moana sequel hits a 882.5M Global cume.

900M+ next week already!

Eyeing a 1B-1.1B Global run”

It’ll probably hit $900M tomorrow on New Year’s Eve and hit $1B WW by Martin Luther King Jr. Day Weekend.

The question is will that win be enough to persuade Disney to turn Tiana’s Paperman-style animated Disney+ series into a fully 2D/hand-drawn animated theatrical film sequel to The Princess and the Frog for a wide Thanksgiving 2029 release?

We’ll just have to wait and see.

I mean they’re doing it with turning Season 4 of The Mandalorian into The Mandalorian & Grogu: A Star Wars Story, turning Marvel Studios’ Armor Wars from a Disney+ series into a movie, and giving Bluey a movie.

So they can’t put a genie back in the bottle when they’re doing things like this.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Everyone knew even though Moana 2 was cobbled together from a D+ series, the movie would be a blockbuster!

I call out Disney when the do stupid things, and I will call out when the do super smart things. This was smart!

 

[Disney Analyst]

So, coming into 2024… did anyone have this on their Bingo card, and if so… what are the winning lottery numbers for next week?

 

[Disstevefan1]

So, coming into 2024… did anyone have this on their Bingo card, and if so… what are the winning lottery numbers for next week?

I thought this would do OK at the box office, but after seeing it I was sure, but did not expect 1.6M - WOW!

Disney please create a big beautiful Inside Out omnimover dark ride in the WoL pavilion in EPCOT... After all, you already fixed the roof!!