Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[doctornick]

Have they ever released D+ projections?

I’d love to know what the internal forecasts looked like, if they were/are expecting 250 million subscriptions at $10 a month the logic to forego a couple hundred million from Netflix makes a lot more sense compared to the 100 million at $8 a month (or whatever) they are currently making.

Well they have long projected profitability in 2024. Don’t know if it will happen but seems plausible with another price raise planned (getting the same rate as Netflix or Max would likely make them profitable). I get that’s not really your question because no I don’t think we have any idea how much Disney hopes/expects to make via streaming long term.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Have they ever released D+ projections?

I’d love to know what the internal forecasts looked like, if they were/are expecting 250 million subscriptions at $10 a month the logic to forego a couple hundred million from Netflix makes a lot more sense compared to the 100 million at $8 a month (or whatever) they are currently making.

The need for new content is what sinks the streams. That will NEVER go alway.

My son was watching a film theory - ironically - that talked about the fuzzy math on streaming the other day…
What stuck out was just how much massive money Netflix has doled out to try and stay ahead of the other entries. It will never change.

As far Disney goes…covered in their flop fallout is they are declining a billion dollar lifetime of streaming revenues per Tentpole by keeping it in house. So now they’re stuck to “hope” to get ads. Good luck.

 

[BlakeW39]

You know…I don’t wish for any Disney to fail…
Well…ok…the last Johnson was the biggest piece of hot garbage in history and should have been booed out of the theater on night one…
But aside from that I don’t want any Disney movie to fail.

Why? Cause it’s awful for US…Disney fans. There’s nothing “good” about loses.

Well for me it goes like this. If Disney makes a bad product, I want it to fail. If Disney makes a good product, I want it to succeed. I don't want things to succeed or fail simply because they're made by Disney. TLM deserved to flunk. Elemental I'm neutral on. If Wish is good, I hope it's successful.

Thing is, while losses aren't good for the company and won't do anything good for us as fans.... Disney at this point has proven to me that whether they are financially successful or unsuccesful, it's completely irrelevant, because they will still treat the parks— and parks fans —badly. So why would I need them to succeed? It does nothing for me personally. Either way Disney has no interest in making a product that appeals to me.

 

[Disney Irish]

The need for new content is what sinks the streams. That will NEVER go alway.

My son was watching a film theory - ironically - that talked about the fuzzy math on streaming the other day…
What stuck out was just how much massive money Netflix has doled out to try and stay ahead of the other entries. It will never change.

As far Disney goes…covered in their flop fallout is they are declining a billion dollar lifetime of streaming revenues per Tentpole by keeping it in house. So now they’re stuck to “hope” to get ads. Good luck.

The issue with Netflix is they don't have a real studio system like other streamers, hence they have to buy up their content to keep up/ahead which ends up costing more and more.

Disney doesn't have that issue, so their studio system can feed D+ just like it has for linear for decades. As linear investment fades, and it is and will continue, D+ will get the primary content spend without much overall increases to the bottom line. Its the short term pains of feeding both that just have to be gotten through, but the days of profitability for D+ are fast approaching.

 

[Trauma]

The issue with Netflix is they don't have a real studio system like other streamers, hence they have to buy up their content to keep up/ahead which ends up costing more and more.

Disney doesn't have that issue, so their studio system can feed D+ just like it has for linear for decades. As linear investment fades, and it is and will continue, D+ will get the primary content spend without much overall increases to the bottom line. Its the short term pains of feeding both that just have to be gotten through, but the days of profitability for D+ are fast approaching.

I’n order to have a profitable streaming service you need to have content people want to watch.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’n order to have a profitable streaming service you need to have content people want to watch.

That is subjective, as I find plenty on D+ that I want to watch.

However with that said, if there is high ARPU subs that continue to sub D+ monthly even with your perceived little "watchable" content imagine the gain in subs with "watchable" content. Point is that the D+ high ARPU subs, which is what leads to profitability, continue to grow.

 

[LittleBuford]

Well for me it goes like this. If Disney makes a bad product, I want it to fail. If Disney makes a good product, I want it to succeed. I don't want things to succeed or fail simply because it's a Disney product. TLM deserved to flunk. Elemental I'm neutral on.

Have you seen either Mermaid or Elemental to know if they’re good or bad?

 

[TP2000]

Will Barbie beat Little Mermaid? Advance ticket sales and projections are now pointing that way.

@Phroobar is my witness on this, but about two weeks ago I learned of this Barbie movie by chance, and after one viewing of the trailer on YouTube I was all in on it. So all in on it that I did the following in rapid succession;

1. Convinced my extended family to all go see this as a group at the Del Mar Cinepolis in late July. (They're now as excited as I am)
2. Went on record in another corner of this forum stating I was not ashamed to admit that.
3. Doubled down on it by declaring Barbie would be "The hit of the summer".
4. Changed my signature line on my profile here on this site.

I stand by those decisions, and by that prediction. I watched the Barbie trailers a couple weeks ago and thought "TP2000, my man, this is going to be a hugely successful movie that will bring Americans together in laughter and emotion and be the hit of the summer."

‘Barbie’ Glamming Up For $80M-$100M Opening With Presales Bigger Than ‘Little Mermaid’; ‘Oppenheimer’ Has Shot At $50M – Box Office Outlook

'Barbie' Eyeing $80M-$100M Opening, 'Oppenheimer' $40M-$50M: Box Office

deadline.com

"Warner Bros.’ comedic feature take on girl toy Barbie starring Margot Robbie in the title role and Ryan Gosling as Ken cruised onto tracking today, and hot would be a modest way of describing the box office outlook here. While Warners conservatively is saying $60M, tracking shows that Barbie is bigger than last month’s The Little Mermaid in pulling in general audiences and young women under 25. A weekend start of $80M minimum is what we’re hearing, and that too is a tampered-down expectation because Barbie on paper has all the glitz for a potential $100M start. Little Mermaid‘s 3-day over the Memorial Day holiday weekend was $95.5M."

 

[BlakeW39]

Have you seen either Mermaid or Elemental to know if they’re good or bad?

The Disney remakes are inherently bad products imo. I don't need to see TLM myself to know it's inherently a bad product. If you liked it, that's fine, but I'm not gonna pay for a product just to make sure it's as bad as I think it will be.

Elemental I have not seen, but that's why I feel neutral on if it succeeds or not. I don't really have any feelings on it either way

 

[Jedijax719]

The Disney remakes are inherently bad products imo. I don't need to see TLM myself to know it's inherently a bad product. If you liked it, that's fine, but I'm not gonna pay for a product just to make sure it's as bad as I think it will be.

Elemental I have not seen, but that's why I feel neutral on if it succeeds or not. I don't really have any feels on it either way

LOL-that's funny stuff. I would love to know why it's inherently a bad product.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

If you liked it, that's fine, but I'm not gonna pay for a product just to make sure it's as bad as I think it will be.

This is how I feel also, I’ve never watched a full Fast and Furious movie but I’ve seen enough of the previous 9 on TV to know they’re all bad “to me”, since FF10 is going to mirror all the others I feel safe saying it’s bad even though I didn’t waste my money watching it. They’ve made billions of dollars on them though so a lot of people do like them.

It’s all subjective.

 

[LittleBuford]

The Disney remakes are inherently bad products imo. I don't need to see TLM myself to know it's inherently a bad product. If you liked it, that's fine, but I'm not gonna pay for a product just to make sure it's as bad as I think it will be.

Elemental I have not seen, but that's why I feel neutral on if it succeeds or not. I don't really have any feels on it either way

I don’t think one can declare a film bad (or good) without having seen it. The remakes are as variable as any other category of movie: of the ones I’ve seen, I thought The Lion King was dreadful, really enjoyed The Little Mermaid, and didn’t have strong feelings one way or the other about the rest.

Now, it may well be that the remakes simply aren’t to your taste as a genre. But that doesn’t make them inherently bad.

 

[BlakeW39]

LOL-that's funny stuff. I would love to know why it's inherently a bad product.

Let's rephrase. Remaking a 90 minute animated film, beat for beat, into a 2 hour + live action film, which isn't even actually live action but just bad looking CGI (i.e. animation) is an inherently dumb concept. On the face of it, all these remakes are just disingenuous cash grabs. There is no reality where I support that. None. They're literally Iger-Disney's IP obsession incarnate. I want them all to fail because I think they are bad products, based on those premises. It's nothing personal, but I sure as $#!% am not buying a ticket to any of that schlock.

 

[BlakeW39]

This is how I feel also, I’ve never watched a full Fast and Furious movie but I’ve seen enough of the previous 9 on TV to know they’re all bad “to me”, since FF10 is going to mirror all the others I feel safe saying it’s bad even though I didn’t waste my money watching it. They’ve made billions of dollars on then though so a lot of people do like them.

It’s all subjective.

100% agreed, it's totally subjective. I don't like, hate TLM either or anything.... I don't have very strong opinions on it really. The remakes aren't my biggest issue with what Disney is doing, they just sort of exist. I don't like they Disney does them, so I don't want Disney to be encouraged to make more of them, but that's about as far as my feelings go on the matter.

And yeah, Fast & Furious ain't my thing either.... haven't seen one since 5 I think

 

[LittleBuford]

Remaking a 90 minute animated film, beat for beat, into a 2 hour + live action film

This underscores your lack of familiarity with these films, most of which aren’t beat-for-beat remakes (The Little Mermaid in particular diverges from the original is several significant ways).

 

[LittleBuford]

100% agreed, it's totally subjective. I don't like, hate TLM either or anything.... I don't have very strong opinions on it really.

You implied it was a bad product and said it deserved to fail! That seems a pretty strong opinion to me.

 

[BlakeW39]

You implied it was a bad product and said it deserved to fail! That seems a pretty strong opinion to me.

It's not bro. I want all bad products to fail because I don't want companies to be incentivized to make more of them. It's not specific to TLM. Really, the remakes don't bother me as much as they probably bother some. I'm just not that invested in what Disney does as a studio. If they make bad products, I'll go somewhere else (which they have and I have). The only things I strongly care about in TWDC are the Disney theme parks and Marvel Comics/Entertainment. Both of which are in decline, hence why I don't really cheer Disney on.

 

[LittleBuford]

I want all bad products to fail because I don't want companies to be incentivized to make more of them.

Again, that’s a strong opinion to hold of something you have no first-hand experience of.

 

[BlakeW39]

Again, that’s a strong opinion to hold of something you have no first-hand experience of.

What is a strong opinion? That TLM is a bad product, or that bad products deserve to fail? In the case of the former, I believe the TLM is a bad product due to the transitive properties it possesses as a remake. In the case of the latter... well, I don't think it's a strong opinion... or at least not a controversial one... really, I think all consumers should feel the same way. It's how our economy works. For our interests as consumers to be fulfilled, good products must succeed and bad products must fail, so that the former are incentivized and the latter are deincentivized.

 

[LittleBuford]

What is a strong opinion?

Condemning something you’ve never even seen as inherently bad.