Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Animaniac93-98]

Third times a charm? Looks like no:

"Disney has Pixar’s Luca, which was previously relegated to Disney+, in theaters, but similar to the other Pixar re-releases this year (Turning Red, Soul), there was no muscle behind these in marketing. The Italian-set animated movie did $150K yesterday at 1,390 for what will be a very underwhelming $510K or $367 per theater."

- Deadline

My concern is that Disney will take the wrong lessons from this and think re-releases are not worth it, instead of understanding that these three titles and how they were marketed factored into their lack of success.

 

[brideck]

I wonder how wide the film went… It is actually playing at several theaters here this weekend… I was not expecting the film to… as I thought it was a very limited first week… caught me by surprise… saw it… enjoyed it

Wow. 1034 screens (although I should caveat that it's only been given half screens at my AMCs) -- that's by far the largest IFC opening I can find, and higher than Boyhood or The Death of Stalin at their peaks. I think it's also going to blow by that previous estimate -- sitting at $1.15m after Thu/Fri. Immaculate sitting at $2m, so some of the prospective audience appears to have flipped which movie they went to see.

 

[Tha Realest]

NBC’s Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony Coming to Imax

The live Summer Olympics opening pageantry set around the River Seine will be supersized for audiences in more than 150 Imax locations across the U.S.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

I found this to be interesting considering this is the same day the Deadpool and Wolverine opens.

I figured they would have had IMAX exclusivity locked down

 

[brideck]

I figured they would have had IMAX exclusivity locked down

It shouldn't really get in the way of (m)any important screen times, even on opening day. A live showing would be in the 3:00-7:00 time block on the East Coast.

 

[Disney Irish]

It shouldn't really get in the way of (m)any important screen times, even on opening day. A live showing would be in the 3:00-7:00 time block on the East Coast.

Yep (actually earlier), opening ceremonies are to start around 7:30pm Paris Time, which would be 1:30pm Eastern/10:30am Pacific. And given a normal ~3 hour run time, will probably be over by 5pm Eastern (maybe 6 at the latest).

https://olympics.com/en/news/paris-2024-start-time-opening-ceremony-seine

So this isn't really going to get into prime evening viewings for any movie opening.

 

[vikescaper]

Yep (actually earlier), opening ceremonies are to start around 7:30pm Paris Time, which would be 1:30pm Eastern/10:30am Pacific. And given a normal ~3 hour run time, will probably be over by 5pm Eastern (maybe 6 at the latest).

https://olympics.com/en/news/paris-2024-start-time-opening-ceremony-seine

So this isn't really going to get into prime evening viewings for any movie opening.

That’s what I figured but it still caught me off guard.

 

[brideck]

Yep (actually earlier), opening ceremonies are to start around 7:30pm Paris Time, which would be 1:30pm Eastern/10:30am Pacific. And given a normal ~3 hour run time, will probably be over by 5pm Eastern (maybe 6 at the latest).

https://olympics.com/en/news/paris-2024-start-time-opening-ceremony-seine

So this isn't really going to get into prime evening viewings for any movie opening.

So weird. I had found a third-party article claiming that the ceremony started at 20:24 (8:24) Paris time and I thought that seemed silly yet plausible. Obviously your source seems like it'd be more trustworthy. I think that the summer opening ceremony is typically closer to 4 hours, though -- longer parade of nations, typically more hoopla than the winter version, etc. But whatever, the point remains the same.

 

[Disney Irish]

So weird. I had found a third-party article claiming that the ceremony started at 20:24 (8:24) Paris time and I thought that seemed silly yet plausible. Obviously your source seems like it'd be more trustworthy. I think that the summer opening ceremony is typically closer to 4 hours, though -- longer parade of nations, typically more hoopla than the winter version, etc. But whatever, the point remains the same.

Since it’s the official Olympic website for the Paris Games themselves, yeah I’d say it’s pretty trustworthy lol.

 

[TalkingHead]

Third times a charm? Looks like no:

"Disney has Pixar’s Luca, which was previously relegated to Disney+, in theaters, but similar to the other Pixar re-releases this year (Turning Red, Soul), there was no muscle behind these in marketing. The Italian-set animated movie did $150K yesterday at 1,390 for what will be a very underwhelming $510K or $367 per theater."

- Deadline

My concern is that Disney will take the wrong lessons from this and think re-releases are not worth it, instead of understanding that these three titles and how they were marketed factored into their lack of success.

Or that old chestnut “see, people don’t like original stories.” You can bet they’ll take the wrong lesson, either way.

 

[brideck]

Wow. 1034 screens (although I should caveat that it's only been given half screens at my AMCs) -- that's by far the largest IFC opening I can find, and higher than Boyhood or The Death of Stalin at their peaks. I think it's also going to blow by that previous estimate -- sitting at $1.15m after Thu/Fri. Immaculate sitting at $2m, so some of the prospective audience appears to have flipped which movie they went to see.

Or I'm wrong and they're both going to overshoot their prediction. Late Night is now showing $2.83m for the weekend. That is actually bigger than any individual weekend of even Boyhood. A tremendous showing for IFC. Meanwhile, Immaculate came up with $5.36m (a million over projection), which is Neon's largest opening ever.

Obviously, neither are huge openings in the grand scheme, but horror audiences are still just lurking out there really ready to show up.

 

[Disney Irish]

Or I'm wrong and they're both going to overshoot their prediction. Late Night is now showing $2.83m for the weekend. That is actually bigger than any individual weekend of even Boyhood. A tremendous showing for IFC. Meanwhile, Immaculate came up with $5.36m (a million over projection), which is Neon's largest opening ever.

Obviously, neither are huge openings in the grand scheme, but horror audiences are still just lurking out there really ready to show up.

Could be a good indication for First Omen doing well.

 

[TalkingHead]

Horror audiences never stopped showing up. It’s why something like mid-budget Smile was a hit for Paramount a couple years ago. Or why Talk to Me was a huge hit for A24. It’s one of the few genres where original stories can still get through and turn a nice profit. But it helps that horror audiences seem to always show up like junkies looking for their next fix.

 

[brideck]

Horror audiences never stopped showing up. It’s why something like mid-budget Smile was a hit for Paramount a couple years ago. Or why Talk to Me was a huge hit for A24. It’s one of the few genres where original stories can still get through and turn a nice profit. But it helps that horror audiences seem to always show up like junkies looking for their next fix.

For sure, but they're still clearly looking for something to really rally behind this year. It sure wasn't Night Swim or Imaginary. They both had pretty identical $30m trajectories, which is about the bottom for large studio wide release horror.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well Frozen Empire opened at $45M, a repeat of Afterlife. Wonder if that means it'll end up with the same totals, which wouldn't really be positive since it was a bit higher budget.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Or that old chestnut “see, people don’t like original stories.” You can bet they’ll take the wrong lesson, either way.

Kung Fu Panda 4 has now made more than Migration and will soon surpass Elemental too at the domestic box office.

They'll see that and think sequels, sequels, sequels. Doubly so if Inside Out 2 is an unqualified success.

 

[TP2000]

Hi gang. Did everyone remember to turn on all your lights last night for Earth Hour? I did.

Box Office estimates are now out for this weekend, when Snow White was originally supposed to open. Instead, Luca did the honors as the only movie from any of Disney's studios in the top 20. Poor Things dropped down to 55 theaters as part of its Oscars Soft Landing strategy.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Third times a charm? Looks like no:

"Disney has Pixar’s Luca, which was previously relegated to Disney+, in theaters, but similar to the other Pixar re-releases this year (Turning Red, Soul), there was no muscle behind these in marketing. The Italian-set animated movie did $150K yesterday at 1,390 for what will be a very underwhelming $510K or $367 per theater."

- Deadline

My concern is that Disney will take the wrong lessons from this and think re-releases are not worth it, instead of understanding that these three titles and how they were marketed factored into their lack of success.

This entire failed re-release strategy from Pixar is just weird. I've convinced myself, with absolutely no evidence or any real knowledge of how studio tax law works, that this is part of a tax write-off of some sort. That's the only thing that makes sense at this point why they are doing this to themselves.

 

[brideck]

Kung Fu Panda 4 has now made more than Migration and will soon surpass Elemental too at the domestic box office.

They'll see that and think sequels, sequels, sequels. Doubly so if Inside Out 2 is an unqualified success.

And those people would be wrong in thinking that... how? The masses have spoken and continue to speak.

ETA: There doesn't appear to be any sort of qualitative difference between Migration and Kung Fu Panda 4. They have virtually identical scores on Metacritic, Rotten Tomatoes (critic & audience), IMDb, and Letterboxd. If anything, Migration has scored ever so slightly higher, and yet here we are in just week 3 and it's already eating KFP 4's dust.

 

[TP2000]

Kung Fu Panda 4 has now made more than Migration and will soon surpass Elemental too at the domestic box office.

They'll see that and think sequels, sequels, sequels. Doubly so if Inside Out 2 is an unqualified success.

And the other studios made those box office hits with budgets that were less than half, sometimes only one third, what Disney or Pixar spend to make their movies that struggle to break even at the box office (Elemental, Mermaid) or outright flop (Wish).

Kung Fu Panda 4 budget = $85 Million
Migration budget = $72 Million
Wonka budget = $125 Million
Little Mermaid '23 budget = $250 Million
Wish budget = $200 Million
Elemental budget = $200 Million

 

[TalkingHead]

Kung Fu Panda 4 has now made more than Migration and will soon surpass Elemental too at the domestic box office.

They'll see that and think sequels, sequels, sequels. Doubly so if Inside Out 2 is an unqualified success.

Wouldn’t be shocked if Elio is the last original from Pixar for the foreseeable future, especially in the event that it does poorly.