Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

They’re just attacking a political opponent, and at least one of these posters is very open and proud about their conviction that those who don’t share their precise political views are unworthy of empathy or understanding.

Extracting this one sentence because it made me chuckle, as I assume you're referring to me and my comments on the Hollywood strikes. "Unworthy of empathy" is just so over the top, it's too good not to address.

To repeat, I am of the opinion that the Hollywood strikes are not viewed sympathetically by most Americans because the concept of "Hollywood Actors" does not elicit images of traditional working class union strikers; factory workers, grocery clerks, miners, truckers, longshoremen, etc. Nor does the concept of "Hollywood Actors" elicit images of the few white collar jobs that are still union; airline pilots, railroad dispatchers, etc.

Instead, the concept of "Hollywood Actors" for most Americans elicits the image of wealthy people who have bent over backwards the past 20 years to make sure everyone knows that they are politically liberal and often look down their noses at those who aren't.

Thus, most Americans aren't very worried or concerned that Hollywood is on strike. Even Americans who may vote similarly.

When the SoCal supermarket employees all went on strike in 2004, I made a couple batches of cookies and took them down to the picket line at my Ralph's Fresh Fare. Not because I'm pro-union, but because some of those supermarket employees were my friends and I knew them by name and I was concerned about them. What are you going to do for the Hollywood strikers? Do you have a favorite cookie recipe?

 

[celluloid]

Issue is its budget, which is over $115M more than Fallout which was the franchises previous highest budget film.

No issue at all. You are too deep in the numbers being a perfect science on paper.

Dead Reckoning is a two part movie. It and its sequel were filmed at the same time so some of the cost will make the next one one a lot cheaper because it was tacked to this one's simultaneous production.

Mission Impossible 7(and likely 8 which is already set for release next year) will do great.

Actually, likely more so thanks to SAG joining the strike and having many things released pushed back giving the Mission possible 8 film less competition.


Tommy and Paramount will make it out ok.

Bobby and the mouse. Not as well in the lean years.

 

[TP2000]

Speaking of the Hollywood strikes (imagine unstylish West Virginia miners covered in coal dust if that helps elicit more sympathy)...

There's a growing consensus that either one, or both, are going to last until at least Christmas and might stretch into 2024 and only be ended by the prospect of cancelling the Oscars next March 10th. Because, God forbid, they have to cancel the big industry party where everyone tells everyone how fabulous they all are.

When Will Hollywood's Strikes End? New Report Offers Dismal Update

The writers' and actors' strikes could last longer than expected. Here is reportedly when they could end.

thedirect.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Issue is its budget, which is over $115M more than Fallout which was the franchises previous highest budget film.

Is that for just this year or both? They were filmed concurrently

 

[Disney Irish]

Is that for just this year or both? They were filmed concurrently

Its reported as $291M being the budget for JUST MI:7, not both. So maybe they shared some costs due to concurrent filming, but that would be reflected in a lower budget for MI:8.

Here is what THR reported back last year when 7 finished production and 8 started filming -

"The still-unfinished M:I 7 has already hit a breathtaking $290 million budget, with tax incentives. Cruise and McQuarrie did a little work on 8 as 7 got underway — enough to say they had started the film — but shooting on 8 is underway now."

The Real Mission Impossible: Saying “No” to Tom Cruise

How the franchise superstar lawyered-up and out-gunned Paramount execs over costs, COVID and a last-minute submarine.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[TsWade2]

As much as I'm trying to avoid saying it's the end of Hollywood and Disney, but based on this thread, this is the most depressing thread I ever read. I mean, people fear mongering (Even though I kind of was part of it.), the actors and writers going on strike (For God knows how long it'll take), etc, I feel like this is becoming the next great depression era where there is no hope to get through it. Man, I hate being negative! But at least I didn't say it's the end of Hollywood or Disney!

 

[Disney Irish]

No issue at all. You are too deep in the numbers being a perfect science on paper.

So its ok to dissect every Disney films budgets and box office, but not for other movies also in the box office? Sounds like someone just wants to make it only a "Disney issue" again, which this forum has now agreed is not the case.

Dead Reckoning is a two part movie. It and its sequel were filmed at the same time so some of the cost will make the next one one a lot cheaper because it was tacked to this one's simultaneous production.

MI:8 being cheaper due to shared costs doesn't prevent MI:7 from having a huge budget and disappointing box office.

Mission Impossible 7(and likely 8 which is already set for release next year) will do great.

MI:7 doing "great" is something that may not be in the cards. Keep a watch on the box office performance over the next couple weeks, you might be in for some disappointment on this one....

Actually, likely more so thanks to SAG joining the strike and having many things released pushed back giving the Mission possible 8 film less competition.

Again how MI:8 performs next year has no bearing on how MI:7 performs this year, which is looking pretty soft at the moment.

Tommy and Paramount will make it out ok.

May end up being a huge write down for Paramount, and Paramount+ doesn't have the subs to prop this one up. So yeah don't see the positive side of this one...

Bobby and the mouse. Not as well in the lean years.

We'll have to see how that plays out over the course of the next year.

 

[Disney Irish]

As much as I'm trying to avoid saying it's the end of Hollywood and Disney, but based on this thread, this is the most depressing thread I ever read. I mean, people fear mongering (Even though I kind of was part of it.), the actors and writers going on strike (For God knows how long it'll take), etc, I feel like this is becoming the next great depression era where there is no hope to get through it. Man, I hate being negative! But at least I didn't say it's the end of Hollywood or Disney!

Hollywood and Disney have survived all sorts of disruptions over the course of the last 100 years, the same will happen here.

As the saying goes, this too shall pass. Both Hollywood and Disney will figure out how to transition into the new landscape that we find ourselves in now. Stay positive and honestly don't get to far into this discussions as they tend to have negativity as part of the discussion.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Speaking of the Hollywood strikes (imagine unstylish West Virginia miners covered in coal dust if that helps elicit more sympathy)...

There's a growing consensus that either one, or both, are going to last until at least Christmas and might stretch into 2024 and only be ended by the prospect of cancelling the Oscars next March 10th. Because, God forbid, they have to cancel the big industry party where everyone tells everyone how fabulous they all are.

When Will Hollywood's Strikes End? New Report Offers Dismal Update

The writers' and actors' strikes could last longer than expected. Here is reportedly when they could end.

thedirect.com

What a crass comment. You really have zero understanding of what these strikes are all about, do you?

 

[TsWade2]

Hollywood and Disney have survived all sorts of disruptions over the course of the last 100 years, the same will happen here.

As the saying goes, this too shall pass. Both Hollywood and Disney will figure out how to transition into the new landscape that we find ourselves in now. Stay positive and honestly don't get to far into this discussions as they tend to have negativity as part of the discussion.

Okay. Thanks. I hope this is the last time I'm being negative.

 

[celluloid]

How else can you explain to someone that the budget numbers for Mission Impossible 7 are high because they also include a lot of the funds for Mission Impossible 8? They did not nearly double the budget for 7 calculating this one would be in danger if it made the same as the last one..
Think people.
But let's pretend or say that MI 8 has numbers too close to how much seven cost. Then you do have Paramount falling into the same pattern of their movies' budgets outgrowing their fatigue.
Yes, Disney has fallen harder than most other major studios. Because that is all Disney releases have become.
Now, with their one original production this holiday season, they better wish, that Wish is a hit.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Its reported as $291M being the budget for JUST MI:7, not both. So maybe they shared some costs due to concurrent filming, but that would be reflected in a lower budget for MI:8.

Here is what THR reported back last year when 7 finished production and 8 started filming -

"The still-unfinished M:I 7 has already hit a breathtaking $290 million budget, with tax incentives. Cruise and McQuarrie did a little work on 8 as 7 got underway — enough to say they had started the film — but shooting on 8 is underway now."

The Real Mission Impossible: Saying “No” to Tom Cruise

How the franchise superstar lawyered-up and out-gunned Paramount execs over costs, COVID and a last-minute submarine.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Oh wow…

$200 writedown on deck

If they attached a $300 budget figure to it…

If if ends up $400 for both?…then they might be ok

 

[Chi84]

Instead, the concept of "Hollywood Actors" for most Americans elicits the image of wealthy people who have bent over backwards the past 20 years to make sure everyone knows that they are politically liberal and often look down their noses at those who aren't.

Thus, most Americans aren't very worried or concerned that Hollywood is on strike. Even Americans who may vote similarly.

How do you even pretend to know what most Americans think or feel about actors?

 

[Disney Irish]

How else can you explain to someone that the budget numbers for Mission Impossible 7 are high because they also include a lot of the funds for Mission Impossible 8? They did not nearly double the budget for 7 calculating this one would be in danger if it made the same as the last one..
Think people.

Once again the fact that MI:7 budget may or may not include production costs for MI:8 does preclude it from being a potential box office failure due to that budget. MI:7 still has to get over $800M just to breakeven because of that budget, which isn't looking good so far.

But let's pretend or say that MI 8 has numbers too close to how much seven cost. Then you do have Paramount falling into the same pattern of their movies' budgets outgrowing their fatigue.

We'll know closer to when MI:8 comes out how much its budget was. But again it doesn't matter in terms of MI:7s budget and box office performance.

But yes what we're talking about is the industry wide issue of high budgets and low box office.

Yes, Disney has fallen harder than most other major studios. Because that is all Disney releases have become.
Now, with their one original production this holiday season, they better wish, that Wish is a hit.

Again no one is saying Disney isn't having more box office issues than other studios, they are. Logically speaking since Disney is something like 37% of the marketplace now in terms of box office it stands to reason they of course would have a larger share of the issues related to budgets and lower box office. But the point being made is that its an industry wide issue, all studios are having the same problems whether Disney is having a larger share of them or not.

If you just lift the Disney hate filled glasses you have on for just a second, you'd see what is being discussed about a wide spread industry issue is true.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh wow…

$200 writedown on deck

If they attached a $300 budget figure to it…

If if ends up $400 for both?…then they might be ok

Yeah, Tommy's franchise isn't looking too hot. Which shows that Maverick might have been a one-off after all and he ain't the box office draw that some think he is.

 

[TP2000]

What a crass comment. You really have zero understanding of what these strikes are all about, do you?

As I understand it, the main issues at play are streaming's shaky business model and the threat from AI on both writing and acting.

 

[BuddyThomas]

How do you even pretend to know what most Americans think or feel about actors?

He also does not seem to understand background actors and how one of the sticking points here is that studios want the right to film a background actor and pay a background actor one (1) time only and then use AI to manipulate the image so it can be used multiple times in multiple scenes. No extra pay for this use. There are bigger issues than this but he seems to think it is only about rich movie stars, and he is completely misinformed.

 

[TP2000]

How do you even pretend to know what most Americans think or feel about actors?

Just a gut instinct. Susan Sarandon is a far less sympathetic figure for most Americans than a factory worker in Ohio. Just the truth.

Which is why the Hollywood strike isn't activating a response from either the White House or the California Governor's office. As yet, not even the LA Mayor is getting involved. That speaks volumes.

If General Motors went on strike and shut down production, or air traffic controllers go on strike, the White House gets involved ASAP. If coal miners went on strike, the Governor's of Kentucky and West Virginia would get involved ASAP. Because those are the types of industrials that are not only vital to the health and security of the nation, but they are hugely concerning issues for voters.

So far... the government at the federal, state and even local levels are not getting involved in the strike, aside from issuing boilerplate pablum via their spokesmen about "standing for fairness".

 

[TP2000]

He also does not seem to understand background actors and how one of the sticking points here is that studios want the right to film a background actor and pay a background actor one (1) time only and then use AI to manipulate the image so it can be used multiple times in multiple scenes. No extra pay for this use. There are bigger issues than this but he seems to think it is only about rich movie stars, and he is completely misinformed.

I actually understand all of that. Not to the extent of an industry professional in Hollywood, but fairly more than the average American.

If you revisit my posts, I have been clear that my opinion is that the Hollywood strikes are not a sympathetic cause for the average American. Read that last sentence again if you need to.

The concept of "Hollywood Actors On Strike" is not nearly as concerning to most Americans as the concept of "Truck Drivers On Strike" or "Dockworkers On Strike" or even "Supermarket Employees On Strike".

 

[BuddyThomas]

Just a gut instinct. Susan Sarandon is a far less sympathetic figure for most Americans than a factory worker in Ohio. Just the truth.

Which is why the Hollywood strike isn't activating a response from either the White House or the California Governor's office. As yet, not even the LA Mayor is getting involved. That speaks volumes.

If General Motors went on strike and shut down production, or air traffic controllers go on strike, the White House gets involved ASAP. If coal miners went on strike, the Governor's of Kentucky and West Virginia would get involved ASAP. Because those are the types of industrials that are not only vital to the health and security of the nation, but they are hugely concerning issues for voters.

So far... the government at the federal, state and even local levels are not getting involved in the strike, aside from issuing boilerplate pablum via their spokesmen about "standing for fairness".

Why would the government get involved in an actor or writer strike? That makes no sense whatsoever and at this point it appears that you are simply being disingenuous.