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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
Disney absolutely already has some level of firm commitment from Downey and Evans to return for the next two Avengers films.

I believe Downey has also said in the past he didn’t have any desire to return to the Oscar thing he did when he was younger. Downey is a very skilled and entertaining speaker, but he can be glib.
Does this sound like there‘s a commitment in place?

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Casper Gutman

Well-Known Member
Does this sound like there‘s a commitment in place?

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Yes? It sounds like the constantly self-deprecating and sarcastic RDJ. A few years ago he said he was tired of the Oscarbait he did as a young man and was happy in blockbusters. He says stuff. He’s also fully aware the MCU single-handedly took him from being an uninsurable has-been to one of the five or so biggest stars in the world.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
But, as always, success has many fathers and failure is an orphan….

You are being polite. I always liked Lee Iacocca's rather profane version he used when talking about how many fathers inside the Ford Motor Company that the Mustang had after it became a smash hit. :cool:

Here's the box office results for Disney's movies on Presidents Day. Those stats weren't included in the weekend data, even though it was a federal holiday. Turning Red is at #15 and still is in 1,560 mostly empty theaters nationwide. Bizarre.

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Down at #23 is where Wish is, as it just hit its 90th day in theaters. All Of Us Strangers is conveniently #24, in 50 theaters.

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erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
A few years ago he said he was tired of the Oscarbait he did as a young man and was happy in blockbusters. He says stuff.
While I haven't heard of a solid, Evans and Downey would be coming back. I also wouldn't expect we'd ever know until the movie releases. It will be the worst kept secret in Hollywood, like Toby and Andrew in no way home. You are correct, actors say stuff. Evans had an interview a few years back where he said he was done with captain America. He then said, but if the world needs cap, how could I say no, it's captain America! The ONLY deciding factor to them coming back, is the size of the dump truck of money the deliver to them.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Does this sound like there‘s a commitment in place?

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And Toby and Andrew both denied being in NWH until it was released, even though they were committed and scenes already filmed. So not sure your point. Actors deny and say contradictory stuff all the time until they are allowed to by the studios.

I'm not saying 100% that RDJ will be back. But I wouldn't put any stock in his jokey self deprecating speech as some confirmation that he isn't.
 

Basil of Baker Street

Well-Known Member

Disney Irish

Premium Member
"The star, who plays the title character in new superhero flick “Madame Web,” told MagicFM earlier this week that she doesn’t know when she’ll see the movie, vacillating between saying that she “probably won’t see it” to vaguely stating that she will “someday.”"

You're not alone Dakota...

Just to defend her a little bit, but she doesn't see any of her own movies commonly. But I can see why she wouldn't want to see this one.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Honestly, Madame Web doing this poorly can't be spun as a good thing for Disney's investment in Marvel, can it?
I do think there is a conversation to be had about how the failed Sony Marvel movies might have an unintended negative impact on the Disney Marvel movies if there are many consumers who can't tell the difference.

I somewhat missed this conversation, but wanted to chime in, because TP legitimately wouldn't know and that is not meant to be a criticism of him.

This is not a uniquely new problem. In fact it was far worse prior to the Fox acquisition and Ike Perlmutter being removed. Fox was also producing 'Marvel' movies, but not "Marvel Cinematic Universe" movies. X-men, Fantastic Four and Deadpool. Perlmutter even had Disney producing in-house, disconnected TV shows. Most of these were bombing badly as the MCU was questionably at its peak box office wise.

I don't think the general public actually had brand confusion, so I really do not think it matters that much. The few that were successful, were because they were actually well liked (Logan, Deadpool). People inherently know what belongs to the MCU proper and what doesn't.

Now if Tom Holland was in Madame Webb... that would have been a problem.

The MCU current problem is that even the core stuff right now is becoming too meandering and lost to the overarching plot, so people are discarding it, especially if it's not great.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
The budget for Joker 2 has ballooned to over $200 million and Gladiator 2 is over $310 million.

In case we’re still pretending grossly inflated budgets are a uniquely Disney problem.

I don't think we are pretending that. It's obvious when you look at the comparison charts in this thread that many movies from other companies have $200+ Million budgets now.

The difference with Disney's $200+ Million budgets is that it's become increasingly rare that one of them actually breaks even at the box office, much less make a small profit for Disney.

Disney had 7 movies in 2023 with budgets of $200 Million or more. Only one (1) of them broke even and made a profit; Guardians 3 with a $61 Million profit. The other six mega-budget movies from Disney in 2023 all lost money at the box office.

Combined, these 6 movies lost approximately $877 Million for Disney in 2023.

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Ant-Man: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $129, Foreign B.O. Take $100 = $71 Million Loss
Mermaid:
Production $250, Marketing $140*, Domestic B.O. Take $179, Foreign B.O. Take $108 = $103 Million Loss
Elemental
: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $93, Foreign B.O. Take $133 = $74 Million Loss
Indy 5:
Production $300, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $104, Foreign B.O. Take $83 = $213 Million Loss
The Marvels:
Production $220*, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $51, Foreign B.O. Take $45 = $224 Million Loss
Wish:
Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $38, Foreign B.O. Take $70 = $192 Million Loss

*
A note on the asterisks: Marketing budgets were historically considered to be half of the production budget, but with bloated budgets of $200 Million or more I capped marketing at $100 Million, unless there was reliable media sources that said otherwise. Mermaid was noted by Variety and other industry sources as having a $140 Million marketing budget. The production budget of $275 Million for The Marvels was reduced to $220 Million thanks to a $55 Million subsidy from the British government.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Combined, these 6 movies lost approximately $877 Million for Disney in 2023.

Though content sales and licensing only reported a loss of 720 million for the calendar year.

I think the four *biggest* culprits were most assuredly Indy, The Marvels, Haunted Mansion and Wish. The rest a bit sitting on a bubble or lifted up by post-theatrical and Way of Water/Guardians spill overs.
 

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
The budget for Joker 2 has ballooned to over $200 million and Gladiator 2 is over $310 million.

In case we’re still pretending grossly inflated budgets are a uniquely Disney problem.
Joker 2 makes sense. Purportedly Phillips, Phoenix, and Gaga got their money up front. That’s about half the budget there. The first film made over a billion, and this should be fine. Not sure what’s up with Gladiator 2.

The real head-scratcher? Twisters is over $200Bn. With Glen Powell. Of course, this could be a “so dumb it does good” film. But man.

Incidentally, we just rewatched Twister. Great time capsule for the mid/late 90’s, but oh man - what a cast.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
The MCU current problem is that even the core stuff right now is becoming too meandering and lost to the overarching plot, so people are discarding it, especially if it's not great.

One could argue that the concept of an "overarching plot" in the MCU has always been a myth that they're now having difficulty selling to the public since there are no longer shiny MacGuffins (read infinity stones) obviously "connecting" all of the movies together.
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
The MCU current problem is that even the core stuff right now is becoming too meandering and lost to the overarching plot, so people are discarding it, especially if it's not great.

I think they can bounce back if they hit on just a couple of good movies.

A lot of the standalone movies surrounding the first Avengers weren't beloved (Thor 2, Iron Man 2-3, Avengers 2, Ant-Man).

Things started to come together with Captain America 2 and that director team would go on to do Civil War and Avengers 3 and 4, and we know how those were received.

Endgame was largely successful by building on the first Avengers and using well developed characters played by great actors. Connections to the majority of standalone moves, story wise, wasn't super important IMO.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
One could argue that the concept of an "overarching plot" in the MCU has always been a myth that they're now having difficulty selling to the public since there are no longer shiny MacGuffins (read infinity stones) obviously "connecting" all of the movies together.

It was a bit, but it was a myth that significantly propped up Captain Marvel as a necessity to consume.

Rather than having so many pots on the same stove, they need to diversify a bit. The MCU was largely working in parallel with the Daredevil Netflix group. That came off the rails because Iron Fist was just… sooo… bad. But it worked otherwise.

They have the playbook and I think they are heading back there. But it’s been a bit too long in the tooth to reach young Avengers and then in parallel an avengers film. They needed to prune a couple of their originals and we really should have been getting more second seasons for a couple of their concepts by now.

They just went super broad too quickly.
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
It was a bit, but it was a myth that significantly propped up Captain Marvel as a necessity to consume.

Rather than having so many pots on the same stove, they need to diversify a bit. The MCU was largely working in parallel with the Daredevil Netflix group. That came off the rails because Iron Fist was just… sooo… bad. But it worked otherwise.

They have the playbook and I think they are heading back there. But it’s been a bit too long in the tooth to reach young Avengers and then in parallel an avengers film. They needed to prune a couple of their originals and we really should have been getting more second seasons for a couple of their concepts by now.

They just went super broad too quickly.
I think they should of had a Shang-chi 2 at least in production by now…that seemed well received even if the box office did not show it at the time… as people were still a bit wary of Covid at the time
 

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