Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Prince-1]

If for some odd reason that makes you sleep better at night thinking that, god bless.

Oh I don’t care at all how it did but I find it funny that you and other want to continue to stick their heads in the sand deny it actually made some money. Maybe the multiple articles that had the same result had to many big words for some to understand so I’ll look for another website that says the same thing which is TLM made money.

 

[jrice]

Oh, I just caught that one. How interesting.

So are you accusing me of also being @jrice? Some poor poster everyone here jumped on for having the wrong opinions? And so you think that in April, 2019 I created a duplicate account for myself called jrice, because I already knew that four months later in August, 2019 a very messy gay divorce among a prominent couple in the Disneyland website community would erupt into a hilarious (and assumedly dreamed up by someone drugged or drunken) conspiracy theory that I was actually ghost writing for Al Lutz for 20 years and was being paid by George Kalogridis and Zenia Mucha to overthrow Michael Eisner and elevate Bob Iger to the throne?

Wow. And I created duplicate accounts months in advance of that just to be ready? And then I ignored those accounts for years to only dig them back up to discuss Disney's horrible box office year in 2023?

Truly an interesting theory involving senior Burbank executives, messy gay divorces by Disney nerds, and the ability to peer into the future and predict upcoming events. Do another one for us! This is fun!

I cannot believe I am famous now! Thank you all.

Yes, I gave my opinion and got destroyed for my opinion. Geez! Again, I want Disney to succeed and be the best movie producer. It’s not happening any time soon and I am concerned.

 

[drizgirl]

I love the people denying the damage to the brand in this thread.

But isn't it interesting to watch?

 

[_caleb]

True!

But how much are they really getting per subscriber?

I originally paid $140 for the first 3 years (less than $50/year).

Then they raised the cost and I renewed for another year at $80. I held my nose at that price, but there was supposed to be a lot of new Marvel content on the way that... didn't quite happen.

Then they raised the cost and wanted me to renew for another year at $140 (in other words, one year for the price of what I originally paid for three years) with little new content on the horizon. So I canceled.

Then they offered a great discount and I'm now paying $24 for Disney+ for a year (with ads). So, instead of getting my $50/year or $80/year, because they nearly doubled the price with little value to show for it and I wouldn't pay for that, they're now getting $24/year from me (plus advertising... something... that I mute and/or read my phone during until the show or movie comes back on).

Doesn't seem like the best math to me, but... at least they're keeping me as a paying subscriber.

Disney+ has 156.8M subscribers. Currently, the cost is $7.99 w/ads, $13.99 Premium, which averages out to be $10.99 if everyone paid full price (many subscriptions are discounted right now).

Let’s say Disney can get to $10/mo. per sub. That would be (I’m terrible at math) eighteen billion nine hundred thirty-six million dollars per year.

And that’s before they really get into in-app purchases, premium second screen content, and other new streams that leverage the technology.

 

[erasure fan1]

Let’s say Disney can get to $10/mo. per sub. That would be (I’m terrible at math) eighteen billion nine hundred thirty-six million dollars per year.

But are they anywhere close to that right now? I know a lot of subscriptions are part of things like cellphone and cable carriers... Plus it seems the rest of the world seems to be $4 to $5+ less than us. And that's paying rack rate, and we know that isn't happening. Do we know how much it's costing Disney to run Disney plus? Content, infrastructure, staff... I know it's a marathon not a sprint and the goal is profit in 2024. I just wonder how close they actually are to that point?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Disney+ has 156.8M subscribers. Currently, the cost is $7.99 w/ads, $13.99 Premium, which averages out to be $10.99 if everyone paid full price (many subscriptions are discounted right now).

Let’s say Disney can get to $10/mo. per sub. That would be (I’m terrible at math) eighteen billion nine hundred thirty-six million dollars per year.

And that’s before they really get into in-app purchases, premium second screen content, and other new streams that leverage the technology.

It’ll be great if they ever reach those numbers but that’s not the current reality, it’s been reported that D+ had revenue of $8.4 billion this year.

Disney Plus Revenue and Usage Statistics (2024)

After years of deliberation as to the shifting tides in entertainment, Disney announced Disney Plus in 2017, which would bring all of the company’s brands such as Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm under one roof. It launched two years later in November 2019. Disney first signalled an...

www.businessofapps.com

 

[BrianLo]

And it's actually much worse than that for Disney. Pre-Disney+ they would have sold the rights to TLM to multiple downstream distributors (domestic and international pay windows, cable, streamers, free TV, etc., etc.) based on its box office results (or pre-negotiated deals). That was a huge amount of actual cash inflow to the company.

In order to be the exclusive place to stream it (outside of PPV/EST) in most markets, they now have the "honor" of paying intracompany to the studio to make them and the producers "whole" while not recouping the money on the Disney+ side in actual new subscribers (hence the massive Disney+ losses).

Box office bombs with huge production budgets kill the downstream ecosystem/business model, so in the case of Disney, there is no place to hide. Unless you believe movies like Strange World are actually continuing to drive new subscribers and its existence on the platform is responsible for actually reducing churn. This is why HBO Max is starting to license content to Netflix again - they need to get back that lost revenue stream even though it may hurt the Max subscriber base.

So Disney actually figured out a way to make less net money for the company on the same film and box office performance than pre-streaming when a film doesn't get marketplace traction at the global box office (which is the case for nearly every Disney release this year).

Owning the entire distribution of the film is great when you have hits, not so much when you have bombs.

It is important to not create a double negative in the thought experiment. Products are still remunerated according to the rates that Disney would be able to achieve through former licensing deals. There is still cash inflow, about 16 billion worth at D+ generated last year.

The short term view is that Disney could pay itself 60 million for a dud like Strange World (with long term owning the pipeline that will be profitable), or it can get 60 from Netflix to do so. But why would Netflix be willing to pay? Because it has metrics for what things are worth. (For reference an actual popular movie would be licensed for 150-200 million). Strange World did poorly, but it was also still paid out by the internal service at a lower rate, as it would have been at an external service.

Cancelling D+ short-term erases the pipelines loses, but it also erases the subscriber revenue in the process. Short term Disney is behind, but they are also creating a modest Netflix rival from scratch. Long term they want to own the content AND a profit generating pipeline (as Netflix currently has achieved). Long term they will have created a 'modest' Netflix internally from scratch without paying another company (?60-100 billion) dollars to acquire one. Though they partially did that with Hulu to the tune of 20 billion and counting.

True!

But how much are they really getting per subscriber?

Domestically they currently average 7.50 a month per subscriber and Internationally 6.10 USD per subscriber. These figures are reflective of Q3 the recent price hikes will still play out over a couple more quarters due to annual subscribers. This is known as ARPU and they report this in financial statements.

But are they anywhere close to that right now? I know a lot of subscriptions are part of things like cellphone and cable carriers... Plus it seems the rest of the world seems to be $4 to $5+ less than us. And that's paying rack rate, and we know that isn't happening. Do we know how much it's costing Disney to run Disney plus? Content, infrastructure, staff... I know it's a marathon not a sprint and the goal is profit in 2024. I just wonder how close they actually are to that point?

As above. Slightly old from Q2 but I think this is the cleanest visual summary for what you are asking.

Yellow is what they pay to make the content or pay to 'acquire' the content from the theatrical releases. It is the majority of the costs. Green would be for marketing or launching D+ itself into new markets (i.e. billboards for D+ content or the service, sizzle reels, media presence). Orange is actual structural costs like staffing, infrastructure.

To answer your original question they are actually quite close (0.7 loss above dates back to Q2; it was further improved last quarter). I have hypothesized the service is currently profitable, with the very clear understanding that financial reporting is going to be behind that. The recent subscriber price hikes happened mid way or late into Q1 depending on the market. So Q1 may still report a loss as an average of the 3 months, even if December started breaking even. I think Q2 will report a profit.

The other major positive tailwind is most of the cost savings from the strikes won't really be occurring until 2024/5 as Disney+ doesn't report production spend until the program actually lands on the service - and even then it is depreciated over a couple years. So none of the lack of spend on production for 9 months has been realized. With slowing releases now becoming more evident in 2024 that will start to manifest and then be amortized over a couple years at lower rates.

 

[BrianLo]

And note, some of that D+ revenue is being offset by the billions of dollars of previous licensing revenue (with nearly entire profit flow through) they no longer get now that they are the lone distributor of the product in most global markets.

You have to look at the consolidated numbers to track the moving parts as the D+ numbers are obviously not the entire picture (and part of the reason the stock is down 40%+ over the past two years).

I do think you are right. The subscriber revenue is merely partly offsetting loss of old licensing revenue for theatrical content. Though it is also massively pumping into D+ original content as well, something that might not exist in the classical model.

For better and worse. I fully understand there could be some opinionated argument that maybe it would be better if there was no D+ original content.

While it has been bumpy, D+ has also paid for quite a heck of a lot of content that is hard to imagine existing in a purely licensed environment. While we do have limited case examples like Netflix Daredevil stuff, Disney likes not having partners in between what they want to produce and own. It's difficult to imagine there would be Mandalorian manifesting in the same way, or perhaps at all. Maybe not the best example as perhaps we would have still seen a Dis-Netflix version of that... but would there also be Andor? Disney's own 'classic' TV pipelines could not financially support those type of shows alone.


There is a fixation with how much D+ has 'lost' so far. But what has it also bought in the process? A surprisingly high subscriber count for an upstart. A lot of rather expensive content, to various degrees of quality. A near-guaranteed licensor for everything Disney makes, no matter how desirable. It's not like the service has nothing to show for it.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

There is still cash inflow, about 16 billion worth at D+ generated last year.

According to the numbers I’ve seen it’s closer to $20 billion in DTC… but that’s D+, Hulu, and ESPN+ combined… not just D+.

The latest revenues I found (for 2023) were $8.4 billion for D+ (link in previous post), about $1.7 billion for ESPN+ (26 million subscribers at $5.34 a month), and $11.2 billion for Hulu.

DTC could potentially break even or maybe even turn a profit next year, ESPN+ itself made money this year.

Hulu Revenue and Usage Statistics (2023)

Video streaming service Hulu started its life with major backing from new and old media, receiving investment and content from NBC Universal, MSN, MySpace and Yahoo in 2007 before launching early in 2008. Hulu entanglement with the media conglomerates of America placed it in stark contrast to...

www.businessofapps.com

ESPN+ monthly ARPU in the U.S. 2023 | Statista

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Disney's live sports streaming service ESPN+ generated an average monthly revenue of 5.34 U.S.

www.statista.com

ESPN Viewership Statistics 2023 ( How Many People Watch ESPN)

Are sports fans worldwide still tuning in to ESPN? Who are watching and how? Read these eye-opening ESPN viewership statistics and find out.

playtoday.co

 

[BrianLo]

According to the numbers I’ve seen it’s closer to $20 billion in DTC… but that’s D+, Hulu, and ESPN+ combined… not just D+.

The latest revenues I found (for 2023) were $8.4 billion for D+, about $1.7 billion for ESPN+ (26 million subscribers at $5.34 a month), and $11.2 billion for Hulu.

DTC could potentially break even or maybe even turn a profit next year, ESPN+ itself made money this year.

Sorry, good catch. It's hard not to use the two interchangeably, but Hulu is doing a lot of legwork.

Simply extrapolating last quarters subscriber counts and ARPU D+ would be 9.3 billion annually, currently.

So it is probably better to say I suspect the DTC segment itself is 'currently' now just profitable and it is likely why they also say publicly D+ (not the whole DTC) itself won't be until the end of the fiscal year. Which was confusing me somewhat, why they were being so conservative.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Sorry, good catch. It's hard not to use the two interchangeably, but Hulu is doing a lot of legwork.

Simply extrapolating last quarters subscriber counts and ARPU D+ would be 9.3 billion annually, currently.

So it is probably better to say I suspect the DTC segment itself is 'currently' now just profitable and it is likely why they also say publicly D+ (not the whole DTC) itself won't be until the end of the fiscal year. Which was confusing me somewhat, why they were being so conservative.

The segment is still losing money but far less than last year, last year they were losing about $1.5 billion a quarter, this year it lost $1.5 billion for the whole year, it’s still a huge loss but also a massive improvement.

As long as they don’t have a max exodus I’ll be shocked if DTC doesn’t (at least) break even in 2024.

 

[BrianLo]

The segment is still losing money but far less than last year, last year they were losing about $1.5 billion a quarter, this year it lost $1.5 billion for the whole year, it’s still a huge loss but also a massive improvement.

As long as they don’t have a max exodus I’ll be shocked if DTC doesn’t (at least) break even in 2024.

Exactly. Last year also had no International Core price hike and a fair India subscriber drop off to boot. Even if there is a subscriber drop it's going to have a hard time unwinding the across the board subscriber price hikes.

I don't think anyone has talked about the Reliance merger happening in India though, here. It's possible the entire India Hotstar operation is somewhat pulled out of this segment in a crafty way with future reporting.

 

[celluloid]

The segment is still losing money but far less than last year, last year they were losing about $1.5 billion a quarter, this year it lost $1.5 billion for the whole year, it’s still a huge loss but also a massive improvement.

As long as they don’t have a max exodus I’ll be shocked if DTC doesn’t (at least) break even in 2024.

It will be interesting to see if there will be a churn this next year or not. Particularly with this year's releases and only Inside Out 2 as the big family release not until June in theaters.

 

[BuddyThomas]

For those of us who actually saw movies in 2023 and haven’t just been bloviating about box office and so called “agendas”, what are your top films of the year? Mine are:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Barbie
3. The Iron Claw
4. Poor Things
5. The Color Purple
6. The Holdovers
7. The Little Mermaid
8. Saltburn
9. Leave the World Behind
10. Bottoms

Have not yet seen Killers of the Flower Moon, American Fiction, The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall, Rustin, lasted only 36 minutes of Maestro

Honorable Mentions: Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Godzilla Minus One, Strays, Cocaine Bear, Past Lives, How to Blow Up a Pipeline

Best horror:

Talk to Me, Thanksgiving, Evil Dead Rise, Knock at the Cabin, When Evil Lurks, M3GAN, Infinity Pool, The Blackening

What are your picks? Happy New Year!

 

[Bullseye1967]

For those of us who actually saw movies in 2023 and haven’t just been bloviating about box office and so called “agendas”, what are your top films of the year? Mine are:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Barbie
3. The Iron Claw
4. Poor Things
5. The Color Purple
6. The Holdovers
7. The Little Mermaid
8. Saltburn
9. Leave the World Behind
10. Bottoms

Have not yet seen Killers of the Flower Moon, American Fiction, The Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall, Rustin, lasted only 36 minutes of Maestro

Honorable Mentions: Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Godzilla Minus One, Strays, Cocaine Bear, Past Lives, How to Blow Up a Pipeline

Best horror:

Talk to Me, Thanksgiving, Evil Dead Rise, Knock at the Cabin, When Evil Lurks, M3GAN, Infinity Pool, The Blackening

What are your picks? Happy New Year!

What about Slotherhouse?

 

[BuddyThomas]

What about Slotherhouse?

LOL - that one falls into the so bad it's good category, just like Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey

 

[brideck]

For those of us who actually saw movies in 2023 and haven’t just been bloviating about box office and so called “agendas”, what are your top films of the year?

Funny, we've only seen 3 of your top 10 so far. It's been a (relatively) tough year for getting to the theater -- long Covid is a b.

Per usual, we'll be death racing again this year so there's a lot yet to see and I'm usually loathe to rank stuff, so in rough chronological order, I'd say:
Infinity Pool
Inside
D&D: Honor Among Thieves
Sanctuary
Past Lives
Elemental
Oppenheimer
Anatomy of a Fall
Priscilla
Killers of the Flower Moon

Disney stuff (and harmless family stuff, in general) doesn't tend to make my top lists, even though I see plenty of it -- not as much there to sink your brain into, and there are so many ways to be easily entertained in this world.

 

[TP2000]

I think you missed my perhaps too elaborate joke, though the point was achieved.

I think you got caught accusing me of also being @jrice for some bizarre reason, with apologies to jrice himself, and are trying to pretend you didn't actually just do that.

 

[TP2000]

It's a Sunday, so The Numbers site releases an estimate for today so they can show the weekend box office. Here's where things are estimated to stand by the time the clock hits 2024 tonight at Midnight.

Wish is about to be beaten at the box office by Migration, after already being handily beaten by Trolls. Both the Trolls and Miagration movie had production budgets less than half that of Wish. In the case of Migration the budget was almost one third of Wish. Ouch.

Poor Things continues to spend the last week of '23 down in 12th place. Even with its small $35 Million production budget, it looks like it's going to lose at least $25 Million for Searchlight.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday November 21, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[BuddyThomas]

Since someone won’t stop harping about the Poor Things box office, I’ll just leave this here:

‘Poor Things’ Domestic Box Office Slays Competition Despite Limited Debut

The dark comedy delivered the third-best per-theater average of the year, behind 'Asteroid City' and 'Beau is Afraid'.

collider.com

All Poor Things award nominations to date: Over 100, and counting:

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt14230458/awards/