_caleb
Well-Known Member
Yes, and re-releases are the sort of strategic use of theaters I think we're going to see much more of in the Direct-to-Consumer era.
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
I wasn't commenting on the profitability of Wonka.
The point is that we typically see several big holiday movies open in the $100 to $200 million dollar range. We aren't seeing that at all at the moment.
When Wonka opens at $39 million domestically and it's being seen as one of the big hits of the holiday season, it raises the question of just how bad the theater business is doing overall.
Oh, and I'd rather be Disney who generates enough money from their other revenue streams, like the theme parks, that they don't have to worry about how they're going to pay the bills if a movie bombs.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
The next 18-24 months is going to be very interesting and telling about the future of the theatrical market. If 2024 goes as bad as predicted, and 2025 ends up being worse (a good possibility) I think you could see a near complete collapse of major theater chains shortly there after.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
What if it's not just one movie that bombs, but a dozen movies all in a row in a single year from all of Disney's studios; Pixar, Lucas, Marvel, Walt Disney Animation, Walt Disney Pictures, Searchlight, and 20th Century?
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
Maybe? There used to be a greater benefit to seeing movies back on the big screen. Star Wars came back with "if you've only seen it this way, you haven't seen it at all". And it was true.
Today, big screen TVs are the norm. They will never replicate the theater. Absolutely not. However, we get a good experience at home. It's one thing to go out to see Star Wars because you only have a terrible full screen VHS copy at home. There isn't the same onus to do so today.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Which is why the vintage screenings need to branch out and pull from more than the standard 40 or so titles they cycle through every couple years.
_caleb
Well-Known Member
Good point. I suppose I was thinking about "themed" showings, like sing-along musicals (where they add subtitles to a film's songs and guests are encouraged to sing along), cosplay showings (where fans dress up as their favorite characters), haunted-house showings of horror/thrillers, etc.
But you're right-- "see it on a big screen with surround sound" is NOT the draw it once was!
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
The trouble with that is, I imagine it takes a lot of time and effort to arrange and promote such showings. All for just one day?
Rocky Horror Picture Show draws crowds consistently, but that's an anomaly with a cult following and an established experience.
I could see a small boutique theater do well showing different classic movies, but a multiplex needs the big studio films.
_caleb
Well-Known Member
RHPS is exactly what I have in mind. In our local post-run theater, they hold "Moms with toddlers" showings of both kids films and grown-up films. During these showings, kids are allowed to be loud and run around (and I think moms are allowed to drink).
And no, I'm not thinking just for a day, but certainly for a limited special re-release run. Starting back during the pandemic, we had cinemas with smaller theaters allow you to rent out the entire showing. This sort of made for a casual party atmosphere, and we've done it a few times so we can get together with groups larger than my living room will allow.
Honestly, I'm not sure what could save theaters at this point. But I know something has to change, and it's going to have to center around doing something that isn't better/cheaper/more comfortably done at home.
Basil of Baker Street
Well-Known Member
Sister-in-law, husband and 3 kids went to see Trolls. 1 huge bucket of popcorn and 5 drinks.
$122 for an 1.5h runtime film. That's pretty tough for a family of 5 to absorb along with rising costs of everyting else. Besides, skip a handful of those outings and you could hang an 85" tv on your wall.
Personally I think the large (i.e.)16 theater multiplexes are largely going away. We are entering the time of boutique theaters with comfortable seating and expanded menus.
$122 for an 1.5h runtime film. That's pretty tough for a family of 5 to absorb along with rising costs of everyting else. Besides, skip a handful of those outings and you could hang an 85" tv on your wall.
Personally I think the large (i.e.)16 theater multiplexes are largely going away. We are entering the time of boutique theaters with comfortable seating and expanded menus.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Movies theaters that are restaurants/bars first and screenings second may become the norm.
KeithVH
Well-Known Member
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Agreed, I was predicting this long before the pandemic. The pandemic and the rise of streaming has just accelerated what was going to happen anyways.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
They will still absorb the losses just like they have done during down years in decades past. If you haven't picked up on it with the rest of the thread, while Disney has had a terrible year the whole theatrical market has too. We are literally right in the middle of an industry changing moment, Disney just happen to be taking the brunt of the losses this year.
2024 is predicted to be worse than 2023 and that is going to affect everyone, not just Disney. In fact Disney might be positioned better than everyone else for 2024 with them pulling a majority of their releases and pushing them to 2025 and beyond. Iger might have just made a smart play here.
It is strategy that is often used during awards season… the nominations are often used as promotion… January is often a month of a dumping ground for films the Studios did not believe in and films that are award favorites
Basil of Baker Street
Well-Known Member
I also believe we will see how important it was for Disney to acquire and produce more "adult" content as it is getting harder for a family to go see a film. It will become more of a date. That's why I think the boutique cinema experience will win out. Go see a film, have a drink and a hopefully better than classic cinema food. Maybe more adult orientated content goes to the big screen while princess movies go DTC. Who knows.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Yes, regardless of the theatrical profitability, this December is down over 30% since December 2021; which was also down from the running average pre-pandemic. Last year was a downward trend as well (though not as bad), but at least had some leggy movies into January, aka Way of Water. We'd have to go back to the 90's and ignore inflation to find such a poor December.
I'm not sure how long theatres are going to sustain themselves from the fumes of Barbie-nheimer.
Maybe it is a strike thing, albeit the compliment of movies this year had a lot of the same meat that other far more successful Decembers had. Even without a Middle Earth movie, Star Wars or Avatar, 2019 was still quite successful with Aquaman as its frontrunner.
What is interesting kind of looking at the last 4 months is that this is no longer a failed Pandemic recovery trend. We've reversed course and started to decline (rapidly) again.
The age of tentpoles may be in fact dwindling, but the theatre owners are the ones who are going to pay that price most of all. I'm not following the finances of the American chains, but I'm sure they aren't rosy. Maybe Asian markets pick up the slack, but I think we are now in a long term trend of passing the peak of number of domestic cinema screens.
This doesn't by any means theatrical is dead, it just is no longer a growth industry.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
This isn't really true. Luca continued to be in the top ten for all movies streamed in 2022, despite being released a year earlier (it was number 1 in 2021 and number 9 in 2022). There's an argument that Soul was a Christmas one and done.
The jury is still out on Turning Red's lasting power, but it was the second highest streamed movie last year when it is was released.
Encanto of course isn't being mentioned, because I think we all know that is successful by any metric. Multiple land proposals sort of validate that one.
If you ask me I think internally Encanto is considered highly successful. Elemental is maybe following suit. Turning Red and Luca are being put on the same footing as the likes of Wall-E or Ratatouille. Soul might get forgotten about. Strange World and Lightyear were total misses to be buried by the company.
spacemt354
Chili's
I think you mean 2018, as 2019 had Rise of Skywalker.
December 2018 had Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse, Mary Poppins Returns, and Bumblebee. Then from November you also had Bohemian Rhapsody, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Ralph Breaks the Internet
I feel like 2018 had a more marketable lineup at that time. Other than Wonka, there wasn't an entry that peaked my interest, whereas I remember going to see at least 3-4 films in Nov/Dec 2018.
Yeah, this holiday season needed an Avatar-level blockbuster that everyone had to see right away (i.e. to avoid spoilers, or because anticipation was just that high) to serve as the rising tide to lift all boats, and it didn't get one. Indeed the three movies I think most people expected to be the breakouts -- after Dune Part Two, a movie that had potential to break out huge given how well the first one performed during Covid, was moved to the spring -- were the two superhero films and Wish, and all three faceplanted hard. What we're left with are some films that would have been second-tier success stories in a "typical" season, like Wonka, having to pick up the slack and they can only do so much.