Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

for me, Black Cauldron is amazing, a classic. regardless of how it did in theaters or others opinions. give me a black cauldron darkride in fantasy land please!

If I recall, all we ever got from the Black Cauldron was a quick-service snack bar.

TDL had Black Cauldron as part of a walk-thru at one time in their Cinderella Castle, it was around for 20 years, but likely rethemed due to being too scary and a few other reasons like not being popular overall -

 

[Casper Gutman]

A side note - by the time the “streaming revolution” settles into a new normal, it will almost certainly have killed Fox, Paramount, and Warners - three of the great, golden age studios that had survived for over a century, through all sorts of economic tumult and social change. That’s a tragedy for anyone who loves Hollywood history and shows just how absurd the “only Disney is struggling” line really is.

 

[Disney Irish]

A side note - by the time the “streaming revolution” settles into a new normal, it will almost certainly have killed Fox, Paramount, and Warners - three of the great, golden age studios that had survived for over a century, through all sorts of economic tumult and social change. That’s a tragedy for anyone who loves Hollywood history and shows just how absurd the “only Disney is struggling” line really is.

Its funny to think that Disney will be the last remaining studio that will remain pretty much untouched from the Golden Age of Hollywood. It actually shows you how resilient the company really is (especially after all the acquisitions done by Iger) and how recent box office turmoil is just a blip into its long history.

 

[Phroobar]

How resilient the company is depends on how well they can keep the corporate raiders away. It feels likely in the next 10 years that Disney could be acquired and sold for parts. Iger and company just might let that happen.

 

[Disney Irish]

How resilient the company is depends on how well they can keep the corporate raiders away. It feels likely in the next 10 years that Disney could be acquired and sold for parts. Iger and company just might let that happen.

Disney has dealt with corporate raiders before. And so far they are keeping them currently at bay this time too.

If Iger wanted to sell the company for parts he could have done that a long time ago, remember the rumors he was shopping the Parks early into his tenure. Or even the fact that he confirmed that if Jobs was still around they would have tried to find a way to merge with Apple, its why that rumor of Apple buying Disney won't go away.

No I think Iger and team are trying everything they can to keep the company together as much as possible. I think the next 18 months is going to be very telling in terms of the companies future.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

If I recall, all we ever got from the Black Cauldron was a quick-service snack bar.

The Cinderella Castle Mystery Tour (1986-2006) at Tokyo Disneyland prominently featured the movie as its climax.

 

[Tha Realest]

One of the trailers I saw yesterday was for something that looked Spiderman related, but had, I believe, 3 female leads, or maybe one lead and two supporting roles.

There were groans in the theater. I guess we'll see what happens.

I’m obligated to post this each time this preposterous movie comes up:

The Sony spin-off universe is strange. Morbius was terrible, but fun if you turned off your brain. Venom 1 and 2 were less terrible, and also fun if you also turned off your brain. The last two of those films I mentioned Star two of our greatest actors in Hardy and Williams, and they are a complete mess. The Spiderverse films are possibly the height of both feature animation and superhero storytelling in a way not experienced since The Incredibles.

 

[Bullseye1967]

TDL had Black Cauldron as part of a walk-thru at one time in their Cinderella Castle, it was around for 20 years, but likely rethemed due to being too scary and a few other reasons like not being popular overall -

I love his stuff. It is usually very well done. If he could find someone else to narrate, it would be great. I guess the monotone is part of his brand. He runs about 4 channels and they are all worth a watch. His cruise stuff is also good.

 

[BrianLo]

I think we are coming back around to the real narrative that there was some strong denial about all year. There is an industry wide theatrical problem. Disney was absolutely asymmetrically affected in terms of its box office, without a doubt. But there is some feigned ignorance and shiny distractions people have been pointing to, to avoid the nuance that there are root issues going on here.

-Aquaman 2 completely collapsed and its original actually made slightly more than Captain Marvel.
-Dreamworks and Illumination both had worse performing animated movies than Pixar (and maybe WDAS depending on how Migration shakes out).

I know, I know. There were successes studios had too, the ones we've heard about ad naseum all year long (well not really Dreamworks or DC), but the dazzling highs were matched with many, many abnormal lows.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I think we are coming back around to the real narrative that there was some strong denial about all year. There is an industry wide theatrical problem. Disney was absolutely asymmetrically affected in terms of its box office, without a doubt. But there is some feigned ignorance and shiny distractions people have been pointing to, to avoid the nuance that there are root issues going on here.

-Aquaman 2 completely collapsed and its original actually made slightly more than Captain Marvel.
-Dreamworks and Illumination both had worse performing animated movies than Pixar (and maybe WDAS depending on how Migration shakes out).

I know, I know. There were successes studios had too, the ones we've heard about ad naseum all year long (well not really Dreamworks or DC), but the dazzling highs were matched with many, many abnormal lows.

The Hunger Games prequel did half the business of the original, and is already on streaming.

Godzilla Minus One seems to be well received by audiences and has yet to make 25% of what the 2014 Godzilla release made.

Trolls has made less than half the previous installment, and is already on streaming.

Wonka is being heralded as a hit but hasn't cracked $100 million after two weekends. That's a very minor hit by modern box office standards.

I can't think of any movies released in the last few months that have drawn a significant audience.

Sure looks like the theatrical market is in trouble.

 

[Disney Irish]

The Hunger Games prequel did half the business of the original, and is already on streaming.

Godzilla Minus One seems to be well received by audiences and has yet to make 25% of what the 2014 Godzilla release made.

Trolls has made less than half the previous installment, and is already on streaming.

Wonka is being heralded as a hit but hasn't cracked $100 million after two weekends. That's a very minor hit by modern box office standards.

I can't think of any movies released in the last few months that have drawn a significant audience.

Sure looks like the theatrical market is in trouble.

Add to that that there are no major releases left until March, Q1 is going to be a disaster for the box office. 2024 is already predicted to be lower than 2023, it may end up being even lower than that if this type of turn out continues the entire year.

Its no wonder that WBD/Paramount and other studios are looking to merge even more, they've been seeing the writing on the wall for a while now.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Godzilla Minus One seems to be well received by audiences and has yet to make 25% of what the 2014 Godzilla release made.

Godzilla Minus One is on track to being one of the highest grossing foreign language releases of all time in NA.

It cannot be compared to the US Godzilla movies.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

What has flourished in the last couple of years is smaller, independent films.

A24 had their highest grossing movie ever last year. We just got the best USA box office ever for a Studio Ghibli title (and it's still making money). Indian films are growing in popularity stateside. The per-theater average for limited releases in their opening weekends continue to do well. Two Japanese movies were in the top 3 at the box office recently. Some horror titles have also over performed recently too.

We're seeing a collapse in the brand/tentpole/franchise business, but that's lead to an appetite for something different.

 

[TalkingHead]

What has flourished in the last couple of years is smaller, independent films.

A24 had their highest grossing movie ever last year. We just got the best USA box office ever for a Studio Ghibli title (and it's still making money). Indian films are growing in popularity stateside. The per-theater average for limited releases in their opening weekends continue to do well. Two Japanese movies were in the top 3 at the box office recently. Some horror titles have also over performed recently too.

We're seeing a collapse in the brand/tentpole/franchise business, but that's lead to an appetite for something different.

Devil’s advocate: the Miyazaki did well because he’s an auteur like Nolan. The business has fewer and fewer directors whose names can sell a movie at the box office, and so many of them are likely nearing the ends of their careers.

A24 deciding to go the route of bigger budgets and more “mainstream” fare for lack of a better term is a weird development. Seems likely the market is limited for whatever they’re envisioning, and higher budgets only underscore the risk. Maybe they’re banking on streaming deals, like the one they just did with WB/Max.

While the franchise audiences may have moved on to other things, I think the concern would be those other things may not involve going to theaters for other types of movies. Maybe chains shrink or maybe boutique theaters survive, but it does feel like the next 18 months could be a turning point.

 

[erasure fan1]

Godzilla Minus One seems to be well received by audiences and has yet to make 25% of what the 2014 Godzilla release made.

True, but with a budget of 15mil it made a nice profit. It was also a subtitled film, so not near the appeal of the 2014 film.

The Hunger Games prequel did half the business of the original, and is already on streaming.

It was never going to match what the originals made. But again, with a reported budget of $100mil, it did just fine.

Trolls has made less than half the previous installment, and is already on streaming.

This one made money as well with its reported 90mil budget.

Wonka is being heralded as a hit but hasn't cracked $100 million after two weekends. That's a very minor hit by modern box office standards.

Box office mojo has it at $263mil? So while not some mega blockbuster, still profitable by a good margin if the numbers are correct.

Sure looks like the theatrical market is in trouble.

Yes the uber tentpole blockbuster is in trouble. People aren't just willing to run out to see the 3rd, 4th, 5th plus entry into a franchise just because. But as far as I can tell from the numbers, if your budgets are in check you should be good. All the films you mentioned above did well financially because they didn't have huge tentpole budgets. Maybe that's the reset the theatrical market needs. The return of the mid budget production that doesn't need to be the next avengers.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Maybe chains shrink or maybe boutique theaters survive, but it does feel like the next 18 months could be a turning point.

I do think the big multiplexes will suffer as the cost of running large venues is hard to sustain without the crowds to fill them.

 

[Disney Irish]

True, but with a budget of 15mil it made a nice profit. It was also a subtitled film, so not near the appeal of the 2014 film.

It was never going to match what the originals made. But again, with a reported budget of $100mil, it did just fine.

This one made money as well with its reported 90mil budget.

Box office mojo has it at $263mil? So while not some mega blockbuster, still profitable by a good margin if the numbers are correct.

Yes the uber tentpole blockbuster is in trouble. People aren't just willing to run out to see the 3rd, 4th, 5th plus entry into a franchise just because. But as far as I can tell from the numbers, if your budgets are in check you should be good. All the films you mentioned above did well financially because they didn't have huge tentpole budgets. Maybe that's the reset the theatrical market needs. The return of the mid budget production that doesn't need to be the next avengers.

The larger question is can the theatrical market survive after the last couple of years on just small to medium budget films if they don't have the same draw as big budget films. Yes those might be profitable for studios as they don't need as many butts in seats for that to happen. But they aren't for theater owners who depend on those butts to buy popcorn and soda.

So all this talk about smaller films still being profitable does no good if the overall theatrical market is gone because theaters closed down. In order for theatrical to survive the large budget films need to be successful in order to draw out the crowds.

 

[CinematicFusion]

A side note - by the time the “streaming revolution” settles into a new normal, it will almost certainly have killed Fox, Paramount, and Warners - three of the great, golden age studios that had survived for over a century, through all sorts of economic tumult and social change. That’s a tragedy for anyone who loves Hollywood history and shows just how absurd the “only Disney is struggling” line really is.

Nothing lasts forever

 

[Disstevefan1]

So TLM is finishing 2023 in 6th place domestically. Still calling that a flop? Regardless of financial break even point, it sold more tickets than almost every other movie that came out all year, with so much going against it.

Even Ant Man at number 8 isn't looking so bad compared to the second half of the year for superhero movies. Looks like Aquaman finished well below Marvels. I can't understand that - the first one did well, nobody hates Momoa, it makes no sense. I intend to see it, but Wonka was my priority this week (which was already late, but hey - scheduling, per usual.)

Disney had 4 of the top 8 (and 10.) No other studio did.

I will say this: it's not just movies that have been down. My business struggled through a deeper than expected Fall dip, as did many local businesses with whom I've spoken, and many similar businesses to mine across the country. People seemed to be spending less on entertainment since about August.

I agree the price of a ticket and concessions have increased to a point that make a trip to the theater more of an event than a last minute afterthought, especially for families. I've always been more of an "only if it's something I really want to see" kind of guy. I guess more people are doing it that way, for whatever reason. Still, I'm surprised Aquaman wasn't that for more people. His first was one of the better in the DC realm, IMO.

And I maintain it's obvious politics in general are dragging Disney's business.

YaY! TLM has broken even!!!! Its a Christmas miracle!

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

True, but with a budget of 15mil it made a nice profit. It was also a subtitled film, so not near the appeal of the 2014 film.

It was never going to match what the originals made. But again, with a reported budget of $100mil, it did just fine.

This one made money as well with its reported 90mil budget.

Box office mojo has it at $263mil? So while not some mega blockbuster, still profitable by a good margin if the numbers are correct.

Yes the uber tentpole blockbuster is in trouble. People aren't just willing to run out to see the 3rd, 4th, 5th plus entry into a franchise just because. But as far as I can tell from the numbers, if your budgets are in check you should be good. All the films you mentioned above did well financially because they didn't have huge tentpole budgets. Maybe that's the reset the theatrical market needs. The return of the mid budget production that doesn't need to be the next avengers.

These movies may have all done okay but the lack any big hits through the entire holiday season seems to paint a picture.

Maybe it's a blip, maybe it's a trend.

Also need to keep in mind movie studios have costs to cover above and beyond production costs of a specific movie. Those Avengers grosses cover a lot more than just the movie, and allow Disney to stay in business even if Wish or Marvels or whatever underperform.

For studios with less assets, moderately successful movies may not cut it.

You also have to spend money to make money sometimes. I don't disagree that mid budget movies are a good thing, but theaters and studios still rely on blockbusters.

Theaters want/need full houses so they can sell popcorn, which is where they make a good chunk of their money. That packed house for Avengers might be what the theater needs to offset the Trolls screening with a handful of people. I don't know the true ins and outs of the business, so mostly speculating here.