Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

I think the honest post-mortem is, Disney has been too slow to adjust to a changing market, ie lower budget fair.

Quality discussions aside, had they anticipated a slow down in the theatrical market and lowered budgets we wouldn't be having a lot of these conversations. The fact they continued to steamroll ahead with tentpole budgets on lesser quality films shows they thought they could buck the trend.

Hopefully lessons were learned and budgets and quality adjustments are made moving forward.

I do think they had to anticipate some of this, but were helpless to correct. I think the mentality of “well fix the story and create entire worlds in postproduction” means these films are insanely expensive. Having seen most of the MCU films in the theatre, and staying for post-credit scenes, it feels like there are dozens and dozens of VFX firms working on these movies. I also wonder if the budgets are inflated because of the over reliance on the post-theatrical window, meaning they have to pay up front to actors and producers more.

It’s been a running joke that Disney’s theatrical slate is booked out years in advance with UNTITLED PIXAR FILM and UNTITLED SOLO MARVEL FILM, which implicitly means some group that lives in spreadsheets knows if you release a Marvel team up in April you will get $850M-$1.1bn WW - just plug in an IP and you’re set. Those rigid release dates also mean you have a lot of late work churning to make a release date, often at a much higher cost and poor overall quality.

 

[celluloid]

Budgets are fine if the cost is worth it. Barbie, Mario, Spiderverse and Oppenheimer would have still been a massive his even if they cost 50 million more.

Disney is just making crappy content frequently and they can't rest in laurels anymore.

 

[Tha Realest]

Or they might concentrate only on the most obvious stinkers like the remakes and Lightyear. The Critical Drinker is an exception but recently he’s been punching down too much.

But see, if you called those movies failures you’re called names. It’s not obvious to many here those are stinkers.

 

[Miru]

Here’s the thing: an honest post-mortem could help identify these problems and course correct, but in order to do so you have to accept there’s a body to examine. While most open-eyed people see a mortuary full of bodies like Strange World, Wish, Marvels, Indiana Jones, and a recent remake, some here think they can spot a pulse and that they’ll reawaken from a vegetative state to become profitable cult classics years from now.

Indeed. At best these films will become nostalgia-driven zombies much like how the lesser 2000s Disney films like Home on the Range did. Or maybe they’ll be meme darlings but not earnestly adored.

 

[celluloid]

Even then, fully Sony Marvel films aren’t a guarantee of quality at all (Morbius, though at least it’s charming and not pure agony), and it looks like Beyond the Spider Verse will be their “Vol 3” to to speak, with Madame Web being every bit as “important” as what Disney is doing at their worst.

For sure. I only put it in a disclaimer as Sony has some potential justice in the tank with soidet to still break 200 to 300 million domestically.
Disney's MCU time with that outside of a miracle reunion is over.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't think you actually read what is posted and just post replies. Stop trying to win points. Your Iger Hater Card isn't going to be taken away, its ok.

I just said management is to blame because they didn't anticipate a slowing theatrical market and didn't budget accordingly. Also there is quality issues, which is also a management issue.

So if you actually read what I posted, I was actually sort of agreeing with you but was providing more nuisance.

You consistently state the “excuse to follow”…in the first line…the rest is background noise.

Maybe pull a Rian Johnson and “subvert expectations” next time?


And anyone who’s a Disney fan SHOULD hate Iger by now…the failures all spawned from his misguided approaches…you just didn’t see them coming and don’t want to lose that hill.

Same ole

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just to review, here's how the box office forecasts for Thanksgiving week evolved for Wish over the last 30 days, and where they actually ended up by Sunday, November 26th.

Five Day Opening Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast for Wish, Domestic Box Office

October 26th Forecast = $64 to $94 Million
November 16th Forecast = $57 to $86 Million
November 21st Forecast = $49 to $66 Million

Sunday, November 26th Actual Total = $31.7 Million

5-Day Weekend Box Office Forecast: NAPOLEON and WISH Aim to Bring Out Thanksgiving Moviegoers

As Thanksgiving weekend nears, theaters are hoping for a more robust set of openers than have been seen since the 2019 box office.

www.boxofficepro.com

Todays excuse is…???
…right…”budget is too high”?


Right

A Dude where’s my car? Reboot would get $31 at todays prices.

 

[Miru]

For sure. I only put it in a disclaimer as Sony has some potential justice in the tank with soidet to still break 200 to 300 million domestically.
Disney's MCU time with that outside of a miracle reunion is over.

And once Sony uses that up? With what happened to the directors, they’ll be as hopeless as Disney.

 

[celluloid]

You consistently state the “excuse to follow”…in the first line…the rest is background noise.

The formula special.
It is typically.like one of three. Another common one being Disney Plus release soon must mean people will just wait.
There are proven same day or quick release to streaming that box office is not impacted very much.
You notice the fanatical nature when the reason is never "Many of their films have just not been what audiences enjoyed."
It always has to be anything and everything else.

 

[celluloid]

And once Sony uses that up? With what happened to the directors, they’ll be as hopeless as Disney.

No doubt. My post was a Disclaimer of prediction. Not saying Sony's success us everlasting. They just own the biggest single hero movie rights.
Sad thing is, the general public it hurts The Marvel brand that much further. The lines are blurred to much of the general public. It makes more work for Disney.

 

[Tha Realest]

Todays excuse is…???
…right…”budget is too high”?


Right

A Dude where’s my car? Reboot would get $31 at todays prices.

It’s worse when you slice it down to its three day weekend gross.

It made less in its opening three day weekend than The Black Phone, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, Mortal Kombat, Jacka$$ Forever, Smallfoot, Smile, and DC League of Superpets

 

[Disney Irish]

You consistently state the “excuse to follow”…in the first line…the rest is background noise.

Maybe pull a Rian Johnson and “subvert expectations” next time?


And anyone who’s a Disney fan SHOULD hate Iger by now…the failures all spawned from his misguided approaches…you just didn’t see them coming and don’t want to lose that hill.

Same ole

What you call "background noise" is where everything is happening. Life is full of nuisance, full of greys, no absolutes.

I don't hate anyone. I get disappointed by people and things, but I don't hate anyone or anything. Maybe you should try that, might make things look different.

 

[Tha Realest]

No doubt. My post was a Disclaimer of prediction. Not saying Sony's success us everlasting. They just own the biggest single hero movie rights.
Sad thing is, the general public it hurts The Marvel brand that much further. The lines are blurred to much of the general public. It makes more work for Disney.

This is the MCU film with the highest degree of success currently on the calendar

 

[Chi84]

Even if they make movies that offend you?

Or just who should they “not care who they offend?”

For heaven’s sake, I’m not suggesting they make offensive movies! Someone earlier posted some crazy stuff about people being offended by just about anything. If that’s the case, I would rather Disney produce interesting and compelling content without worrying about stepping on toes.

 

[erasure fan1]

I said "flop worse than most MCU films this year". At least get the full quote right.

I had the quote right, I just didn't put all of it.

Anyways, my point is that saying X lost $75M less than Y is actually a hollow discussion. Both lost money, the fact one lost more isn't somehow making the other better. Its just a way to make the one the put out Y worse.

I just found it an odd thing to say. You were comparing how hard one film would flop vs another. And then all of a sudden it was we shouldn't compare that way. I agree it doesn't make one better than the other. And sure some use it to put down Disney. But I still think it's one piece of comparing two films.

 

[celluloid]

I had the quote right, I just didn't put all of it.

I just found it an odd thing to say. You were comparing how hard one film would flop vs another. And then all of a sudden it was we shouldn't compare that way.

Hard to keep up with.

 

[LittleBuford]

But see, if you called those movies failures you’re called names. It’s not obvious to many here those are stinkers.

I’ve repeatedly described Lightyear as a boring film that I have no desire to rewatch. @BuddyThomas posted a very negative review of The Haunted Mansion. And only the other day, @MrPromey shared his rather negative take on Wish.

No-one has called any of us names.

 

[erasure fan1]

I don’t specifically think the marvels is a”misstep” on its own…I think it’s the whole MCU that’s drowning at this point.

Exactly, it's death by a thousand paper cuts. There's not a whole lot going on in the mcu that really warrants people caring at this point. They've spent almost the entirety of phase 4 and now 5, tripping over their own feet. It's littered with mediocre to below average films, that have no real through line. All with more needed watch hours than EVERYTHING that came before it, as a huge barrier to entry. It really shouldn't be a huge surprise that the marvels is where it is.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Saw someone in the depths of the internet say this- "Everyone needs to watch the making of Frozen 2 documentary. They were literally still trying to figure out the resolution to the film weeks before release."

Can anyone back that up? If true, it's exhibit A on how Disney needs to actually focus on making good stories...

 

[flynnibus]