Andrew C
You know what's funny?
I think you are overestimating the amount of people who care about this kind of stuff. There may be some of that but not enough to see such a dip as we are seeing.
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
flynnibus
Premium Member
The producers and studios are literally in the job to put together movies they think will be commercially viable and successful. They are not artists working on grants. They work at movie studios to make money. "They overestimated their audience" is a polite way to say THEY MISSED and failed at putting together a winner.
Snow White was attacked for trying to make a movie called Snow White that wasn't snow white. When your pitch flops before anyone has even seen it.. it still has to do with the project. Because maybe, just maybe, your audience has some brain and memory.. even if you want them to throw it out.
They've always made film budgets based on the project - why stop now?
Or... an audience simply not interested in what they are doing. It is possible to come to that conclusion without it being fed by talking heads.
Or are you suggesting that somehow the majority of Disney's fanbase before were all just GOP sheep.. that got woken up by their order from the talking heads? Where's the other 60% of the population? Where's the international population that doesn't subcume to those same "politicians and groups".
The drop-off in sales is far far greater than what can be explained by simply blaming some sheep.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
This is called inserting yourself into a discussion between two other people and not following the thread.
Go read the comments on any random Disney social media post on any platform, and come back and try to say that again with a straight face.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
They’re not the majority; they just think they are.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
Things don’t happen in a vacuum. I shouldn’t have to explain this to you.
flynnibus
Premium Member
So again... where has the rest of Disney's paying customers disappeared to? The quatum realm?
You discredit your own arguments... blaming the customers walking are being manipulated... yet they can't possibly cover the number of missing sales. So which is it?
Chi84
Premium Member
Obviously Disney needs to do a better job of predicting what type of movie people want to see. But they also need to keep some level of integrity in the quality of what they’re putting out.
They need to find their new audience, but regressing to what they did 10 years ago won’t be successful either.
They need to find their new audience, but regressing to what they did 10 years ago won’t be successful either.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
…yeah…kinda had that vibe for monthsNot that the discussion of mega-flop The Marvels isn't fun, but Box Office Pro just updated its box office forecast for Wish.
Wish gets the plum and highly enviable Thanksgiving weekend debut. And it had a lavish $200 Million production budget and has a carpet-bombing marketing campaign that must have cost $100 Million or so. So it would need roughly $600 Million at the global box office to break even. And yet it's total domestic box office forecast ranges from $165 to $289 Million.
At the high end of $289 domestically, it might break even if the overseas box office is stronger than the USA. But at the low end of only $165 domestically, even a very strong overseas box office wouldn't get it to break even. If the overseas is similarly weak to the domestic box office of $165, Wish could lose $100 Million or more at the box office.
Wish is not a movie that seems to be ready to leap out of the gate next week towards a $750+ Million box office tally.
View attachment 754525
View attachment 754524
Long Range Box Office Forecast: WONKA - Boxoffice
This week's update takes a preliminary look at one of December's key tentpoles, plus updates to upcoming releases over the Thanksgiving window and beyond.www.boxofficepro.com
The ole “want a bil…get $600 mil” vibe…
But Disney will be shocked…cause it’s literally been months since that same thing happened
Chi84
Premium Member
Some of them may have gone to heaven.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
What on Earth makes The Marvels a “statement” film?
TP2000
Well-Known Member
And yet they aren't being replaced by Gen Z.
The older folks are no longer automatic Disney fans, and now the kids are tuning them out too. No wonder Disney is on track to lose $1 Billion (did you notice the B?) at the box office in 2023.
Marvel might be struggling to pull in new Gen-Z fans
'The Marvels' has been a box office flop
www.nme.com
flynnibus
Premium Member
You mean like virtually every business?
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Chi84
Premium Member
Right, if they don’t adjust the customer base.You mean like virtually every business?
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
I will be taking my kids to see this one as they are interested in going. Not opening weekend though, a bit later. So maybe if there enough people like me, it will have legs.Not that the discussion of mega-flop The Marvels isn't fun, but Box Office Pro just updated its box office forecast for Wish.
Wish gets the plum and highly enviable Thanksgiving weekend debut. And it had a lavish $200 Million production budget and has a carpet-bombing marketing campaign that must have cost $100 Million or so. So it would need roughly $600 Million at the global box office to break even. And yet it's total domestic box office forecast ranges from $165 to $289 Million.
At the high end of $289 domestically, it might break even if the overseas box office is stronger than the USA. But at the low end of only $165 domestically, even a very strong overseas box office wouldn't get it to break even. If the overseas is similarly weak to the domestic box office of $165, Wish could lose $100 Million or more at the box office.
Wish is not a movie that seems to be ready to leap out of the gate next week towards a $750+ Million box office tally.
View attachment 754525
View attachment 754524
Long Range Box Office Forecast: WONKA - Boxoffice
This week's update takes a preliminary look at one of December's key tentpoles, plus updates to upcoming releases over the Thanksgiving window and beyond.
Chi84
Premium Member
Disney has held a special place in the heart of many of its customers in a way other businesses simply do not. When it does something different, people can feel betrayed and respond at an emotional level.
I don’t blame the public for avoiding movies they don’t like any more than I blame them for buying Genie+ or tickets to after hours events at WDW.
flynnibus
Premium Member
Personally I just don't find the films compelling enough to want to drop the $30 it will cost me to go see the film. That's the problem they have for me. I am in no rush to be first to know about the film... I am not feeling left out in my social life by not knowing the references from the film. No one is talking about them... so I have no peer pressure to go see them. My wife wants nothing to do with Marvel films. None of the trailers have tickled my interest.
This has been the problem with all the recent Disney films to me. And largely most of the people I know. They just aren't being drawn to the theaters... and not being drawn to these films in particular. Which is why virtually everyone I know has D+... none of them are talking about the movies after they drop on D+ either.
To me that says $$ isn't the driving force - They are not generating enough draw with the public.
Films like Indy had the draw for me, but reviews kept me from going to the theater. I watched it on a plane instead. Personally I think the biggest issue is Disney doesn't know how to market in the current world.
This has been the problem with all the recent Disney films to me. And largely most of the people I know. They just aren't being drawn to the theaters... and not being drawn to these films in particular. Which is why virtually everyone I know has D+... none of them are talking about the movies after they drop on D+ either.
To me that says $$ isn't the driving force - They are not generating enough draw with the public.
Films like Indy had the draw for me, but reviews kept me from going to the theater. I watched it on a plane instead. Personally I think the biggest issue is Disney doesn't know how to market in the current world.
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
Lots of folks saying there’s something wrong with The Marvels as a film but not a lot of folks explaining what that is. When I ask for substantive things wrong with the film, posters point to box office or exit scores, which are absolutely not good measures of a films quality. We’re told not to look at shifting audience patterns, that the problem can only be with the film. So I ask again, what are the substantive problems with The Marvels and why are Disney’s critics so reluctant to articulate them?
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
This idea of needing a new audience makes no sense, what was wrong with the previous one that made them Billions?
What would be regressive about going back to the previous one that was comprised of men, women, white, black, asian, hispanic, straight, gay… aka everyone?
People act like the only people who went to the previous (billion dollar) movies were straight white men and that the previous movies didn’t appeal to anyone else, that’s completely false.