It is rather sad… I feel we have gone backwards since a certain event took place in the USA… I feel as if a Movie like Bros would have done better 10 years ago… most did not see it base on their own issues… which is a shame because it is rather fantastic
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Disney Irish
Premium Member
As I just posted, the entire Hollywood studio machine needs to find a way to reign in budgets, not just Disney.
Other studios have the same problems with budgets as Disney does, so don't fall into the trap of thinking its only Disney.
It might be too late for 2023, but its not too late to adjust for the future. If you think that Disney is just going to fade out of the movie business you're naive. For a company as large as Disney they can suffer losses like they have in 2023 and still continue to function and move forward.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
TOTALLY AGREE! Still good advise for Disney.
But Disney as well as the other movie studios will just keep spending and losing.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Of course its good advice for Disney.
And yes just like they have for 100 years, they will continue to spend and lose, and spend and profit, and so on. Its a cycle that keeps going.....
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
Could Disney have done the latest hunger games on a 100 million budget? Probably not.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Dunno, maybe, they did Haunting in Venice for $60M so yeah I say its possible.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
If they wanted to make a "statement" film, they should have probably done it with a lower budget.
Unless that blockbuster is in fact not a blockbuster and somewhat garbage.
Good show.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
There were very few Gen Z kids of either gender who went to see The Marvels. The 18-24 demographic collapsed by more than half for The Marvels compared to Captain Marvel a few years ago, both boys and girls.
Which is the problem; almost no one wanted to see this movie. Not Black women, not white women who work in HR, not the 600,000 people of Pakistani descent living in the USA, not Marvel fans, not teenage boys, not teenage girls. Almost no one.
Does Marvel Have a Gen-Z Problem? Just 19% of ‘The Marvels’ Audience Was 18-24
19% of "The Marvels" audience was 18-24 compared to 40% for "Captain Marvel." Marvel has a Gen-Z problem.
www.indiewire.com
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
That would be interesting data to look at all the movies TWDC released of the 100 years, and how much they made or lost.
Too bad, that data is not available to the public.
Even today, we have no idea how much a given move really cost to make and market, how much a given movie went over budget etc.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
We know that some classics like Pinocchio and Fantasia and others were major "flops" when released. And we know that some years in the 70s and 80s were less than profitable.
But yeah it would be interesting to see over its history of the profit/loss of Studios. I think the outcome might surprise many here.
And I agree, and have said many times, we never really know the real costs of anything, nor do we know the real splits either. Its all part of that fuzzy Hollywood math that has been around for almost 100 years itself.
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
Can we please drop the absurd idea that only Pakistani movie-goers are capable of relating to a character of Pakistani heritage?
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
I saw it, its a great film and I expect it to win some awards.
But it still cost $200M (with no VFX) to make, plus $100M to market (using everyone's favorite guesstimate number), and that is a huge loss for a filmmaker that is usually pretty solid at the box office. Hmm, sound familiar....
I wonder what Apple expected from that movie.
They seem to be focused on their streaming service.
Were they expecting the movie to turn a profit theatrically, or was it just for awards purposes? Is any theatrical revenue merely a bonus on top of what they get from subscriber income?
This could be part of that shift people are mentioning, where theatrical box office isn't the be all and end all.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Not that the discussion of mega-flop The Marvels isn't fun, but Box Office Pro just updated its box office forecast for Wish.
Wish gets the plum and highly enviable Thanksgiving weekend debut. And it had a lavish $200 Million production budget and has a carpet-bombing marketing campaign that must have cost $100 Million or so. So it would need roughly $600 Million at the global box office to break even. And yet it's total domestic box office forecast ranges from $165 to $289 Million.
At the high end of $289 domestically, it might break even if the overseas box office is stronger than the USA. But at the low end of only $165 domestically, even a very strong overseas box office wouldn't get it to break even. If the overseas is similarly weak to the domestic box office of $165, Wish could lose $100 Million or more at the box office.
Wish is not a movie that seems to be ready to leap out of the gate next week towards a $750+ Million box office tally.
www.boxofficepro.com
Wish gets the plum and highly enviable Thanksgiving weekend debut. And it had a lavish $200 Million production budget and has a carpet-bombing marketing campaign that must have cost $100 Million or so. So it would need roughly $600 Million at the global box office to break even. And yet it's total domestic box office forecast ranges from $165 to $289 Million.
At the high end of $289 domestically, it might break even if the overseas box office is stronger than the USA. But at the low end of only $165 domestically, even a very strong overseas box office wouldn't get it to break even. If the overseas is similarly weak to the domestic box office of $165, Wish could lose $100 Million or more at the box office.
Wish is not a movie that seems to be ready to leap out of the gate next week towards a $750+ Million box office tally.
Long Range Box Office Forecast: WONKA - Boxoffice
This week's update takes a preliminary look at one of December's key tentpoles, plus updates to upcoming releases over the Thanksgiving window and beyond.
www.boxofficepro.com
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
Nor is that new.
They’re not bad at their job. They overestimated their audience (which has morphed over the last several years while these movies were being made.) If TLM was an objectively bad movie, I’d agree with you. It wasn’t, but it was treated like one. That’s not a problem with the product.
I think it’s more complicated than that.
Marvel films were doing well. Black Panther did well. Why wouldn’t TLM or The Marvels or a different take on Snow White do well? These films were attacked long before they came out. That obviously has zero to do with film quality.
Also: you’ve made all these big budget Marvel films. Now the one focused on women should be low budget?
Again, they had misplaced faith in their audience - an audience being actively turned against Disney by politicians and groups.
Why would we other than a curiosity?
You’re just a fan. Your job is do I like this or not? That’s all. How much it cost to make has zero to do with that. How well it does at the box office has zero to do with that.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I knew Fantasia lost money, although there are stories that folks like to watch it while high
I did not know about Pinocchio, but I think Pinocchio was the most expensive to make at that time.
See, the same rules applied back then. DON'T OVER SPEND WHEN MAKING MOVIES
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I would be interesting. You argue points just to argue.
Tony the Tigger
Well-Known Member
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
I will say again, these boards would be boring without you
flynnibus
Premium Member
They aren't speaking for everyone. The box office is speaking on behalf of "everyone"
You can keep your head in the sand - but 47m in sales represents a FRACTION of the number of people they were expecting, and a fraction of the number of people that previously were going to see these films.
A nice thought... if The Marvels were the first of it's type and somehow a miss compared to a streak of something not misses. Meanwhile, Disney is on a huge streak of misses, across multiple film types. Is every one of these films 'breaking new ground' and your suggesting the misses are just casualties of being too early for something?
How much do you think Disney has in the tank to keep being culturally 'too early' while burning up billions