Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Vegas Disney Fan]

How long it stays in theaters seems irrelevant at this point, a well reviewed movie (by audiences), based on a beloved attraction, by a (formerly) beloved company should not be flopping.

Disneys movie division is a train wreck right now, and next year is looking bad too, whether HM stays in theaters another day, another month, or another year isn’t going to change that. Disneys problems go far beyond HM.

 

[Disney Irish]

There is no need to be a "sign" of anything.
Research the phrase Correlation does not equal causation.

Thanks, I will!

I'm very well versed in the concept, hence why its an opinion not a fact.

 

[celluloid]

How long it stays in theaters seems irrelevant at this point, a well reviewed movie (by audiences), based on a beloved attraction, by a (formerly) beloved company should not be flopping.

Disneys movie division is a train wreck right now, and next year is looking bad too, whether HM stays in theaters another day, another month, or another year isn’t going to change that. Disneys problems go far beyond HM.

For sure. And it was not the only time it happened to them this year. Indy as well. If not flopped, All of the others, if not a flop, they underperformed.

The ratio this studio has spent vs what they have returned is just widely low consistently.

Anyone can glance at the top five of the year for reference and see that Disney has representation with Guardians there and it is the highest budget in that group by double the budget or more in the case of Sony's Spiderman film this year.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Hold on, you’re telling me people didn’t line
up to sing “The Scuttlebutt” in a theater?!

OK, so it didn’t make any money, but the release of this sing-along was “important” (or something)!

Oh, and just wait until it rolls out in the “remaining international markets”!

And, um, you don’t understand how much merchandise is being sold from the sing along!

On the way to $700M! Here we go!!!

What is the point of this?

 

[celluloid]

What is the point of this?

Saving people time to know we already know the damage control routine?

 

[Chi84]

What is the point of this?

I’m not sure. Scuttlebutt was fun!

 

[Tha Realest]

We were assured Disney kept HM’s August release date so it could be on D+ by October. It’s now early September and we have no digital or physical release dates.

 

[BuddyThomas]

We were assured Disney kept HM’s August release date so it could be on D+ by October. It’s now early September and we have no digital or physical release dates.

So?

 

[Tha Realest]

So?

Well, because the August release date seems to have been a very costly decision, and defensible if dumped quickly on to D+, which may or may not happen now if they want to recoup DVOD or physical media costs before it’s unceremoniously dropped onto D+ and never ever mentioned or acknowledged by the company again.

 

[Bullseye1967]

if it could stay in theaters until mid-September it could see a Halloween bump as families look for family friendly Halloween movies.

With no announced digital or streaming release dates yet, and theaters wanting to keep movies in theaters with the sparse release calendar, it may just hold onto a bunch of those 1000+ theaters it currently (or maybe even an increase) has for another couple weeks. So maybe that Halloween bump is possible

I think this is true. Halloween season starts early. Haunted Houses and Halloween events will open in my area in the next week.

How long it stays in theaters seems irrelevant at this point, a well reviewed movie (by audiences), based on a beloved attraction, by a (formerly) beloved company should not be flopping.

Disneys movie division is a train wreck right now, and next year is looking bad too, whether HM stays in theaters another day, another month, or another year isn’t going to change that. Disneys problems go far beyond HM.

This is also true.

 

[DisneyHead123]

What's fun about the 2003 vs. 2023 comparison of the two Haunted Mansion movies is that, adjusted for inflation, the 2003 production budget is exactly the same $157 Million budget the 2023 film had. So the comparison is even tidier and more glaringly obvious.

2003 Haunted Mansion was a flop that lost Disney $90 Million in 2023 dollars.

2023 Haunted Mansion was a mega-flop that lost Disney $160+ Million in 2023 dollars.

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My theory is that movie going crowds are almost like convention going crowds at this point (in the “comic con” sense of the word convention, not like the dull business oriented things people are forced to attend for work.) Disney is still going for broad appeal while niche audiences rule the day with theater attendances. On a scale of 1-10, if a movie is an 8+ with a group like “kids”, “young women”, “teens”, “guys” and so on, it has a chance of success. If it’s a 5, 6, or even 7 to a lot of people but doesn’t have that “special” factor for any particular demographic, people wait for it to stream. HM was probably a bit too scary for young kids, a bit too bland for older kids, lacked the “cool” factor for young adults, and so on.

In the digital age, people are more and more used to being able to find content that caters to their preferences very specifically. It feels like the days of movies that are “acceptable-to-good but not great” for the entire family are quickly becoming extinct.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Haunted Mansion is now down to playing in 1,190 theaters nationwide today, from its original 3,740 theaters its opening week.

Today in those 1,190 theaters, Haunted Mansion only made $340,000 in box office, which gives Disney $200,000 in box office profit from those ticket sales on Labor Day Monday.

Haunted Mansion has lost Disney $167 Million so far. It was a massive box office flop, in the most classic use of the phrase.

You’re so wrong…

Don’t you know about the money of D+?

No Disney movie will ever lose money…cause the D+ cubicles wires money down to the studio to pay them for the rights

Then…D+ makes oodles of profit off people paying $50 a month - plus ad fees - to subscribe to watch movies that Bombed in the box office…then they’ll subscribe forever cause it also has the aristocats, Swiss family Robinson, and the gummi bears…

Did I miss any part of the genius of this?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Maybe in twenty years they will try another feature film attempt and lose 200 million!

Well Iger will still be there…so they can give away free tickets for each one sold to Toy Story 19

 

[TP2000]

You’re so wrong…

Don’t you know about the money of D+?

No Disney movie will ever lose money…cause the D+ cubicles wires money down to the studio to pay them for the rights

Then…D+ makes oodles of profit off people paying $50 a month - plus ad fees - to subscribe to watch movies that Bombed in the box office…then they’ll subscribe forever cause it also has the aristocats, Swiss family Robinson, and the gummi bears…

Oh, yeah. I forgot about the Disney+ magical math.

Did I miss any part of the genius of this?

I think the only thing you forgot is how when a movie bombs at the box office, but it has a decent Tomatometer score and/or got a glowing review in the Los Angeles Times, there's a special teller's window in the beautiful downtown Burbank branch of the Bank Of America where Sharp Pencil Boys can get a cash credit applied to Disney's account for high Tomatometer scores or glowing Times reviews.

Or at least that's what I was led to believe about Tomatometer scores and glowing reviews. They're practically as good as cash, even if the audience doesn't show up to buy tickets.

 

[TP2000]

My theory is that movie going crowds are almost like convention going crowds at this point (in the “comic con” sense of the word convention, not like the dull business oriented things people are forced to attend for work.) Disney is still going for broad appeal while niche audiences rule the day with theater attendances. On a scale of 1-10, if a movie is an 8+ with a group like “kids”, “young women”, “teens”, “guys” and so on, it has a chance of success. If it’s a 5, 6, or even 7 to a lot of people but doesn’t have that “special” factor for any particular demographic, people wait for it to stream. HM was probably a bit too scary for young kids, a bit too bland for older kids, lacked the “cool” factor for young adults, and so on.

In the digital age, people are more and more used to being able to find content that caters to their preferences very specifically. It feels like the days of movies that are “acceptable-to-good but not great” for the entire family are quickly becoming extinct.

I think you are correct, and that's a big part of what's at play here. And with Disney, its doubly painful because they used to have a few brands that automatically got a paying audience whenever they released anything; like Marvel or Pixar or Walt Disney Animation. It was like shooting fish in a barrel for Disney for years.

But now, you have to really wow the audience to earn their money and business.

We've been talking about this a bit over in the Strike thread. There's now endless amounts of top notch 4K free content on YouTube and free streaming services that are aimed at highly niche audience segments. To get me to turn in to a scripted TV show, it needs to be REALLY good, or else I'm just going to watch my YouTube documentaries about Winston Churchill or Japanese Onsens or old Julia Child episodes.

The last TV series that I purposely sought out was Schitt's Creek. And that wasn't even a network, it was something called "Pop" that was using the content created by the CBC. But I fell in love with it the moment I saw the first episode (a symptom of the lifelong Catherine O'Hara syndrome I suffer from), and never missed a week.

If you want my business now, you really have to WOW me. I no longer settle for mediocre TV or movies.

 

[TP2000]

Well, because the August release date seems to have been a very costly decision, and defensible if dumped quickly on to D+, which may or may not happen now if they want to recoup DVOD or physical media costs before it’s unceremoniously dropped onto D+ and never ever mentioned or acknowledged by the company again.

The good news from that failure is that the movie won't be showing up in the ride on either coast.

And they are dramatically upgrading and changing the queue at Disneyland starting in January, including building a new carriage house gift shop right at the exit of the Speedramp. But now that gift shop will have to stick with traditional Haunted Mansion souvenirs and won't be selling "nice vanilla candles" or anything related to the movie.

A bullet dodged, to be sure.

 

[TP2000]

So, Disney has now lost just over $600 Million at the box office on its six mega-budget movies this year. Here's some food for thought as we look forward from this miserable summer at the box office.

The next big tentpole movie is Wish, arriving in theaters in early November. Wish has a reported production budget of $200 Million (no surprise), and would presumably spend at least another $100 Million on marketing. That means that Wish needs to see roughly $600 Million in ticket sales from the global box office just to break even (give or take based on domestic/overseas ticket mix).

The last six tentpoles Disney released in 2023 had average total box office sales of $470 Million. Wish will need to beat that 2023 average by $130 Million to break even. Will it make it? Can it do it?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So, Disney has now lost just over $600 Million at the box office on its six mega-budget movies this year. Here's some food for thought as we look forward from this miserable summer at the box office.

The next big tentpole movie is Wish, arriving in theaters in early November. Wish has a reported production budget of $200 Million (no surprise), and would presumably spend at least another $100 Million on marketing. That means that Wish needs to see roughly $600 Million in ticket sales from the global box office just to break even (give or take based on domestic/overseas ticket mix).

The last six tentpoles Disney released in 2023 had average total box office sales of $470 Million. Wish will need to beat that 2023 average by $130 Million to break even. Will it make it? Can it do it?

Fear not…

The marvels will make at least close to enough to maybe not lose too much

 

[TP2000]

The marvels will make at least close to enough to maybe not lose too much

A winning business case if I ever heard one.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

A winning business case if I ever heard one.

Just 5 more years of flops til we get into the next “good movie” decade from Disney.

They really need to figure out how to end this cycle, 10 years of hits followed by 10 years of duds is a horrible business plan… yet it’s been that way with Disney for as long as I can remember.