Yes based on the statements of the Fox Board and management this is over. The Fox Board has already determined that a merger with Comcast would violate antitrust and would testify to that. There is no way Comcast comes back and makes a new offer because the Fox Board would have to turn it down based on their SEC files document. If Comcast wants to make a public fool of themselves they could go to the stockholders and request they turn down the Disney offer. I think Robert's is too smart for that.
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News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition
- Thread starter ohioguy
- Start date
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
Agreed, Comcast would have to propose a new 21CF RemainCo to minimize antitrust concerns (or rather concerns of antitrust concerns), which doesn't really make sense at this point.
Plus the 4-Ds article I posted above, which reinforced some of your previous posts, indicates that any increase in the Comcast bid would make those assets cash flow negative for the foreseeable future. Telecoms have been able to finance big mergers and tech upgrades because their cash flow is so strong, however, adding this much debt and negatively impacting cash flow at the same time...that is going to be a hard one to swallow.
Roberts may automatically win his Board's approval, and his job isn't at stake, but if he bets the farm to win 21CF there may actually be a justification for a class action case for the shareholders.
Indy_UK
Well-Known Member
So he’s the most likely to succeed. I don’t know much about him? Are Disney fans liking him much?
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
Well, the analysts seem to be setting it up as a contest between Mayer and Chapek. I don't know enough about Mayer TBH, but if he doesn't do wonders with the DTC division and quickly he won't be in the running for long either.
Just read over Mayers resume on the TWDC site, honestly I would imagine Chapek may have a better shot if he executes within his division over the next couple of years.
Stripes
Premium Member
https://www.wsj.com/articles/comcas...pursuit-of-21st-century-fox-assets-1530103147
Sounds like they still haven't made a decision, but are keeping all their options on the table.
Sounds like they still haven't made a decision, but are keeping all their options on the table.
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Indy_UK
Well-Known Member
Oh Jeeze. I just want this deal to be done and go through. Comcast needs to stop this pursue
Stripes
Premium Member
Me too. They just don't know when to give up, do they?
happycamperuni
Active Member
Bloomberg is saying Disney has won anti-trust approval.
But Murdochs haven't rescheduled Fox's vote yet, so it sounds like they're hoping Comcast will drive the price higher still...; I'm guessing though that Fox will want Comcast to decide whether to bid or not within the next couple of days.
The DOJ is going to approve the Disney Fox merger today. What does that mean?
First Comcast will have to offer a substantial premium over the Disney offer and second the breakup fee would also have to be higher.
Do what we will Comcast have to bid? Well the prior breakup fee was 2.5 billion. Then there is the 1.5 billion that has to be paid to Disney. Now there is no longer a risk of Disney backing out of a great deal for Fox shareholders and if Comcast is blocked by the feds there may be no deal. Therefore Comcast would have to offer a breakup fee of 5 billion plus the 1.5 billion up front to pay Disney. Then the offer would likely have to be 90 billion plus assuming the 14 billion in debt. That would total 105.5 billion plus at least 23 billion debt for Sky. Forget it! It's over and Comcast should move on to buy Sony/Columbia pictures.
First Comcast will have to offer a substantial premium over the Disney offer and second the breakup fee would also have to be higher.
Do what we will Comcast have to bid? Well the prior breakup fee was 2.5 billion. Then there is the 1.5 billion that has to be paid to Disney. Now there is no longer a risk of Disney backing out of a great deal for Fox shareholders and if Comcast is blocked by the feds there may be no deal. Therefore Comcast would have to offer a breakup fee of 5 billion plus the 1.5 billion up front to pay Disney. Then the offer would likely have to be 90 billion plus assuming the 14 billion in debt. That would total 105.5 billion plus at least 23 billion debt for Sky. Forget it! It's over and Comcast should move on to buy Sony/Columbia pictures.
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
DoJ RSN complaint.
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
Comcast should scoop up the RSNs, SKY and Sony and leave happy.
ABQ
Well-Known Member
Huh, I had no idea that YES was a Fox property.
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
That is weird, the latest update from Dow Jones is that Disney has already agreed to sell off the RSNs. Is the lawsuit just an assurance?
Crossfire
Active Member
Looks like the settlement will be done on the lawsuit.
Pixieish
Well-Known Member
Wait...what happened? All the analysts have been saying that Disney threaded the needle with what it was purchasing and that this wouldn't happen?
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
I doubt they’ll let them scoop up the RSNs with this DoJ ordered divestiture given CSMA’s existing RSN footprint.
Also, there’s a rumor Sony will buy Lionsgate.
Looks like there's just one part of the merger DOJ objects to. Disney now needs to fight it in court or acquiesce.
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
Lionsgate is part of Malone's empire, who knows what he will do. It could be a reverse merger with Sony buying Lionsgate and Malone ending up with control of Sony. His method for empire building makes him a lot of money, but it gets super confusing and convoluted. Sony would be wise to stay away.
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
I’m surprised there’s crickets from them on the theatrical market share front.