SorcererMC
Well-Known Member
Per Disney's Schedule 14A Proxy Statement, Iger now has a 5-year consulting period after he ends his tenure as Chairman/CEO in 2021.
(It had previously been 3 years).
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News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition
- Thread starter ohioguy
- Start date
(It had previously been 3 years).
Stripes
Premium Member
Have you noticed how much the hosts at CNBC bring up splitting Fox up? Generally speaking, the analysts don't bring it up, the hosts do. Almost like they've been told to bring it up...
Just something I've noticed
Indy_UK
Well-Known Member
Splitting the assets and working out a deal could work great for both companies.
Give Disney SKY, the missing Marvel, Avatar and Star Wars rights.
Give Comcast everything else including Hulu rights.
I can’t figure why but I think Disney want the legacy FOX IP just to bolster the streaming content.
Give Disney SKY, the missing Marvel, Avatar and Star Wars rights.
Give Comcast everything else including Hulu rights.
I can’t figure why but I think Disney want the legacy FOX IP just to bolster the streaming content.
Twilight_Roxas
Well-Known Member
Comcast wants all of it for themselves that's how greedy they are.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Excellent analysis...but I think you’re overestimating just how comfortable Disney is paying huge prices...
Bobs 3 major acquisitions....weren’t really overpayments. Perhaps Pixar a little...but as we see this weekend still very solid.
Marvel has been ridiculous on return.
And Lucasfilm could be but they seriously can’t run it right and tripped all over themselves so far.
The other thing - correct me if I’m often wrong - is all your figures assume the Disney just has to come up to Comcast’s number...but why assume that? That’s a pretty lame-O “bidding war”...
I’m guess it could go 10-20 billion higher...and that makes the mouse soil his knickers.
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
...which all the economists around here call “the will of the free market” when defending Disney’s moves...
There’s a razors edge on that boomerang...”Duck, Mate!”
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The analysts agree with you...but why wouldn’t they? Two closer to monopolizing stocks are always better than one...
But they also seem to think that neither will accept a negotiated peace on this battle.
Probably all or nothing slugfest with a shocking final number...and for FOX?
...seems silly.
And I think Hulu is big...if I recall...one of the competitors has promised a juggernaut streaming standalone service by the end of this year to the street and the stockholders...and it’s not “optional”. They HAVE to stop the bleed on tv money.
Controlling Hulu sure does look attractive as a shortcut, don’t it?
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
A hard but necessary read. Even if you have followed GE over the years, it’s still very sad. And worst of all, the CEO most responsible, Welch, isn’t holding the bag. This could be Disney's fate if they acquire the Fox assets. Think long and hard about how this deal could kill the company.
http://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/GE-dismantling-interactive/index.html
http://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/GE-dismantling-interactive/index.html
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
This feels more like where Comcast and AT&T are headed. Disney doesn’t have a lot of debt compared to their peers. But this is likely why splitting the baby is the most reasonable outcome.
Disney would give up distribution SKY and Star and maybe half of the RSNs and take the rest. I really do think Disney wants the IP and not necessarily Distro.
Stripes
Premium Member
Now that Comcast is in it, I think they'd be willing to spend a hefty penny.
That said, at some point these assets just become too expensive. AT&T bought Time Warner for about 11x adjusted Enterprise Value to EBITDA, and almost every analyst thought that was too much for media assets. Disney's 8.3x was a steal, Comcast's bid puts it at 9.7x, which is quite reasonable. I don't think either company is willing to go much higher. If you look at Comcast's prior acquisitions all of them have been right around there as well.
As much fun as it is to speculate, all we can really do is wait and see
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Now that Comcast is in it, I think they'd be willing to spend a hefty penny.
That said, at some point these assets just become too expensive. AT&T bought Time Warner for about 11x adjusted Enterprise Value to EBITDA, and almost every analyst thought that was too much for media assets. Disney's 8.3x was a steal, Comcast's bid puts it at 9.7x, which is quite reasonable. I don't think either company is willing to go much higher. If you look at Comcast's prior acquisitions all of them have been right around there as well.
As much fun as it is to speculate, all we can really do is wait and see
Indeed...there’s a game being played and none of us have sideline passes.
I just don’t like iger’s chances of outdueling Roberts.
Disney probably needs the IP more...but they don’t riverboat gamble and Comcast has to be aggressive in the face of changing technology.
And anyone trusting what a Murdoch says is in for an eggface moment.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Welch is the prototype “yay! Big business” clown who was respected as he destroyed what made business stable in the mid 20th century.
Your typical “free market knows...” type.
Neutron jack....lessons should be learned from him...but won’t be.
Immelt wasn’t a prince either.
GE reminds me of sears, Kodak, etc...Dow 30 behemoth types that will disappear into the dust.
Others can follow if they don’t understand that their needs to be quality and reinvestment...especially in the pee ant, “burden” employees
HauntedMansionFLA
Well-Known Member
What does Disney do with the 1.5 billion penalty if Fox goes with another offer?
Stripes
Premium Member
Also, just to highlight how expensive Pixar was: Disney spent a whopping 32x Pixar's EBITDA at the time to acquire the company! They obviously spent it well, but yowza!
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1001039/000119312506012078/d425.htm
Quinnmac000
Well-Known Member
Iger despite being a liberal had his company operate extremely conservatively in regards to not taking any real risks. None really diversified Disney's portfolio nor were any of them failing. So, with those deals being successful I can see why people are letting stuff go. Pixar was something they already could fold easily into their company with no hiccups. Same thing with Marvel and Lucasfilms.
This purchase if it goes through for FOX is very much going to test Disney's ability to integrate a much larger entity into their own company which Comcast already did with an actual failing company (NBCUniversal was the lowest grossing box office in addition to the lowest ranked broadcasting company). With Dreamworks Animation, they are also doing the same thing, a once dead company is thriving in toy sales in addition to the TV shows they are creating.
I forsee huge issues as Disney in and of itself, is going to run back into the same problems it faced under Iger which was....certain divisions got way too bloated. They wanted Fox to increase their mature film division like MIramax back but they didn't leverage Miramax, Touchstone, etc while they were under Iger. Heck they didn't even utilize Dreamworks Pictures properly hints why Speilberg was like bye Felicia I"m done after the BFG. Fox animation isn't going to stay for anti-trust reasons. So all that stuff and Blue Sky is going bye bye.
Owning Sky isn't going to enhance their ability to advertise their product because Disney already has a pretty big relationship with Sky already, they would just now own the company and have to be a cable distributor and all the issues that can arise with being that. Star would only be beneficial to Disney if they actually plan to get in Bollywood production, as Hollywood films don't do as well there.
Fox Network Group Asia doesn't really enhance Disney's reach because Disney already has channels in every major East Asian country so there is another loss and certain US shows that haven't been purchased for international viewing weren't purchased for a reason.
I just don't see this as a win for Disney with the exception of Hulu and maybe the RSN to provide ESPN a safety net. The IPs are iffy anyways.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Pays it to the Chinese government for stuff none of us will ever see??
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
But...in terms of real money - a much smaller outlay
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
...couldn’t agree more.
His three big acquisitions were comparative low cost/high yield transactions. Very conservative and not outside their comfort zone at all.
Even bammtech falls into that niche.
Evil Michael took way more chances with ABC and even go.com...not that I want a gambler in charge...but cast member bob hasn’t shown stones to really deviate from obvious type moves at all. Buying Pixar was fate accompli...it’s not like they were seriously gonna sell to anyone else and cut their brand attachment. They just hated Eisner and Roy got rid of him in a near surgical strike. Same can nearly be said of Lucas. Though he makes it quite clear now he has no love of Disney or his fans...
This whole thing to me seems
Like it’s iger attempting to line up stuff for his promised “magic tv”...but I still don’t think he has the foggiest clue. So “yes”...all roads still lead back to the espn problem.
...and that means the annual passes are still gonna go up a lot. Maybe they’ll have “preferred” parking at PoP and charge $75 a day too??
ABQ
Well-Known Member
Ah Welch....the man that didn't renew the Horizons sponsorship....damn you Jack!
Really? You're literally choking on your own BS. Immelt took the GE that Welch built and grew and turned it into crap. Look at the historical market cap of when Jeff took over.