News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[happycamperuni]

Leverage only matters if you're willing to use it:

Here's a very important factor that's being discounted here:

1) Brian Roberts, 58, is Comcast. It's written into the Comcast articles of incorporation that if Brian Roberts is healthy, willing, and able, then he's entitled to be both Chairman and CEO of Comcast. He can't be fired, and he controls an undilutable 33.3% of the Comcast shareholder vote (so good luck changing the incorporation documents).

He can serve for another 20+ years (like his father who was Chairman/CEO for 46 years) running Comcast. He doesn't care if they take on $120 billion in debt bringing them to $180 billion in total debt because given Comcast's $22+ billion in annual income, he can easily bring down their total debt by $70-80 billion over a 8-10 year timespan just by putting a portion of their income towards the debt payments.

2) Bob Iger is planning on leaving Disney. If Disney does win the Fox assets, how long is he planning on staying: 5 years at most? There's no way he can just pile a lot of extra cash into this bid and leave Disney heavily in debt for a successor to handle.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I doubt Rian could top Kirk being crushed to death by a bridge. That truly was the peak of on screen deaths.

But didn’t cgi Bill Shatner pull off that Spider-Man cling to the bridge with gusto though?

 

[pdude81]

So between Fox and Sky, Comcast is potentially on the hook for $100 billion. That's a lot of debt.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

 

[Indy_UK]

Consumers lose in the long run with both though I would love to see Sky come to the US. Well, I just want more futbol.

I was wondering myself if someone would try and role out SKY to the US but launching a satellite company now in the US would be costly.

Saying that SKY is going to be making their platform available over broadband later this year and eventually do away with dishes so it's possible

 

[LukeS7]

Is this an actual document released by Comcast?

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Is this an actual document released by Comcast?

Yes. From SEC filings:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000095010318007378/image_001.jpg

 

[trainplane3]

Is this an actual document released by Comcast?

Looking at the link: "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000095010318007378/image_001.jpg", I'd say it's legit. The ".gov" is a giveaway.

 

[Rodan75]

Yes. From SEC filings:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000095010318007378/image_001.jpg

That is quite the propaganda.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

When does the bidding war start up?

 

[Rodan75]

I still don't think the Fox assembly are worth 65 billion. However, I have thought about it and think Disney should up their offer to one share of Disney stock for 3 shares of Fox. That would make the offer over $35 a share and given that it should be closed$120 or more a share by closing Comcast would have to increase their offer to over $40.00 a share. Taking into account the additional amount needed to make up for part of the tax consequences Comcast would have to offer a minimum of $42 a share or $78 billion plus the $1.52 billion breakup fee. I expect Comcast to fo that and the $23 billion for Sky adding over $100 billion to their debt. Disney should stick it to Comcast and walk away if Comcast is stupid enough to bankrupt their future.

One last thing, if Disney does win Fox they could still let Comcast get Sky and force Comcast to pay cash for the 39% of Sky that Disney would own and that would amount to 12.09 billion. They should take that cash buy SeaWorld for 2.5 billion, buy Cedar Fair for 4.5 billion and really go after Comcast on all fronts. That would leave 5 billion to pay off some of Fox's 14 billion in debt.

I agree. But I think Disney will offer some mix of stock and cash to get a deal done. Because they already have a binding deal with 21CF, they can simply match the Comcast offer and still come out ahead. The fact that Disney nor 21CF countered the Comcast deal for SKY says that 1. Fox is open to the Comcast offer and 2. Disney is willing to let SKY go. If they are willing to let SKY go, then they are in this mostly for the Content and not the international distribution, which could lead to a split of assets with both Disney and Comcast over-paying for the components they want. The RSNs would likely be the component both sides would fight for vigorously.

To your second point, I wouldn't be surprised to see AT&T-TW pick up SeaWorld/Cedar Fair and/or Six Flags to be a full service competitor to Disney and Comcast and leverage the TW IP.

 

[happycamperuni]

When does the bidding war start up?

Next couple of days we'll probably see a counterbid from Disney, and then another bid from Comcast.

Looking at the fact that all 3 companies are trading up since the AT&T-TW decision..., investors love this bidding war.

 

[pdude81]

Comcast has got what stocks crave. It's got electrolytes

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Next couple of days we'll probably see a counterbid from Disney, and then another bid from Comcast.

Looking at the fact that all 3 companies are trading up since the AT&T-TW decision..., investors love this bidding war.

Is Amazon getting involved or is it just Comcast and Disney?

 

[happycamperuni]

Is Amazon getting involved or is it just Comcast and Disney?

No, Comcast had asked Amazon about Amazon buying the domestic Fox assets if the AT&T-TW bid was denied by the judge. But given that AT&T-TW got a clean bill of passage, I'd assume that Amazon will stay out of this.

Also worth noting that TimeWarner or CBS is a better buy for any tech company (like Amazon or Apple) looking to get into media. The Fox assets are a jumble of mostly international assets that don't help a tech company outside of Fox's tv/movie studio.

It's going to be Disney or Comcast winning this bidding war for sure.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Is this an actual document released by Comcast?

It’s a sales pitch...and it’s actually hard to argue.

The stock owners don’t typically give a flying bat poo about long term debt...they’re aren’t in it for 30 like grandpa.

What they do care about is cash over stock...

Disney’s stock can’t gain any headwind because of cable concerns and they are massively overcharging (us...to be frank) for all their other product. That ain’t good.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Is Amazon getting involved or is it just Comcast and Disney?

Oh good god...that would be like an army of orcs showing up to this battle

 

[JoeCamel]

When does the bidding war start up?

5 O'clock yesterday...

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...t-deal-would-be-worse-than-a-fox-disney-deal/

 

[ppete1975]

Ive started thinking of this a lot differently. Do we really want this to happen?
Why was tron 3 not made? Because they had so many IPS that it no longer was seen as important (crank out star wars and marvel)
New immersive ride based on an entirely new movie... no we have an ip for that
creative new idea for a movie... no we have ips that we just bought
As much as I love what they did with marvel and star wars (these would both be vastly different without Disney) love it or hate it you wouldn't have all of this star wars goodness if Disney hadn't bought it, we might not even have marvel minus one bad movie every three years.
But do we want them getting new IPs that demand sequels instead of Tomorrowland (love it), Tron 3, pirates of the carribean, lone ranger (I actually liked it too ok)