News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[Indy_UK]

Am I right in that there's only a couple of weeks left for Comcast to make a formal offer?

 

[Rodan75]

Am I right in that there's only a couple of weeks left for Comcast to make a formal offer?

Fox hasn't actually announced their shareholder vote date yet. But they expect it to be in mid-July. So they have a little bit of time. I think the clock is ticking much faster on a Fox/Disney counter for SKY, which is why this may just be Comcast playing Chicken with Rupert and Iger.

 

[Rodan75]

Interesting article. I'm not sure I buy it, it feels like he is separating Comcast from Comcast w/NBCUniversal and not giving enough weight to both entities in that the proposed combination isn't just a vertical merger, but both a Vertical and 'horizontal' one.

New Deadline Article

 

[Rodan75]

I think it is going to hurt when the Netflix bubble pops

http://deadline.com/2018/05/netflix...disney-for-top-media-market-value-1202397358/

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Interesting article. I'm not sure I buy it, it feels like he is separating Comcast from Comcast w/NBCUniversal and not giving enough weight to both entities in that the proposed combination isn't just a vertical merger, but both a Vertical and 'horizontal' one.

New Deadline Article

I’m sure that article is a bit tilted...but the principles - in theory - all seem valid. Combining fox and Disney would definitely cause IP and movie bloat...not to mention the RSN issue which is a bigger deal than for Comcast who already operates a small
Portfolio of rsns

 

[seascape]

I missed this is the story I read yesterday about Moody's considering lowering Comcast's ratings. They said it was possible it would be lowered to

• A multi-notch downgrade to Baa2 is possible, it says.

I think the stockholder and the Board would live that. Just think how much money they will have to pay in interest.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

I missed this is the story I read yesterday about Moody's considering lowering Comcast's ratings. They said it was possible it would be lowered to

• A multi-notch downgrade to Baa2 is possible, it says.

I think the stockholder and the Board would live that. Just think how much money they will have to pay in interest.

Buh bye South Resort.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Netflix briefly passed Disney today in market cap before Disney passed it back up again by a hair. Netflix had already passed Comcast earlier in the week. Doing a comparison table between FAANG and the media companies trying to merge we can see why consolidation and move towards being more tech centric is happening with these old media companies.

 

[Lensman]

Interesting article. I'm not sure I buy it, it feels like he is separating Comcast from Comcast w/NBCUniversal and not giving enough weight to both entities in that the proposed combination isn't just a vertical merger, but both a Vertical and 'horizontal' one.

New Deadline Article

I agree. But in addition to your excellent point that Manne is ignoring the NBCUniversal aspect, he is also ignoring the fact of DOJ's interest in investigating the antitrust implications of combining content with distribution. Admittedly Comcast has said that it will only make a bid if the AT&T-TimeWarner deal passes regulatory scrutiny. That's like saying "our second biggest antitrust hurdle is smaller than their biggest antitrust hurdle".

Plus as Cannon says in this Bloomberg article:

If anything, if AT&T-Time Warner is allowed, there will be greater scrutiny of Comcast and Fox because there will be even more concentration of content between the two distributors.

The specifics of the two cases are also materially different. Comcast's regulated regional monopolies (duopolies?) in cable tv make it a bigger antitrust target than AT&T-DirectTV's position in the satellite tv market. Comcast also has the disadvantage of being the biggest tv distribution network by subscribers.

I think it is going to hurt when the Netflix bubble pops

http://deadline.com/2018/05/netflix...disney-for-top-media-market-value-1202397358/

Yeah, there's no doubt that there's a lot of speculative value in Netflix right now. It's not entirely rational because you have to project continued exponential growth as well as the ability to continue grow margins. OTOH, they have a record of continuing growth and growing margins, so it's not entirely irrational either.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Buh bye South Resort.

...so let me get this straight:

Because Comcast had debt, they would cancel development in the theme park segment, where they’re up and coming...

Got it....so then, if a competitor were to struggle in another sector - say a comparable one - they would never nix a project or do the ole Bait and switch to fools if they - by chance - ran theme parks? Because in that case, one has nothing to do with the other. Because parks are built by magic pixies?

...just checking...but I’m gonna need that “bendy arrow” to hit this target.

 

[mikejs78]

...so let me get this straight:

Because Comcast had debt, they would cancel development in the theme park segment, where they’re up and coming...

Got it....so then, if a competitor were to struggle in another sector - say a comparable one - they would never nix a project or do the ole Bait and switch to fools if they - by chance - ran theme parks? Because in that case, one has nothing to do with the other. Because parks are built by magic pixies?

...just checking...but I’m gonna need that “bendy arrow” to hit this target.

It's not about struggling... It's the fact that Comcast is going to take on a fairly significant amount of debt if this deal goes through (their own for the purchase + Fox's debt + the $$$ they would owe Disney for withdrawing from the original sale). Add to that the potential lowering of their credit rating, and investing in anything becomes harder. For one, your spending a lot more money on interest, so your cash reserves go down, leaving less to invest in large projects like a park. And, if you're financing the investment, since your credit rating has declined and your debt to income ratio is higher, your investments become a lot more expensive due to higher interest rates.

So while a purchase of Fox with that amount of assumption of debt doesn't mean that a 3rd gate is dead, it does make it more likely to be scaled down, postponed, or even outright cancelled.

 

[Quinnmac000]

It's not about struggling... It's the fact that Comcast is going to take on a fairly significant amount of debt if this deal goes through (their own for the purchase + Fox's debt + the $$$ they would owe Disney for withdrawing from the original sale). Add to that the potential lowering of their credit rating, and investing in anything becomes harder. For one, your spending a lot more money on interest, so your cash reserves go down, leaving less to invest in large projects like a park. And, if you're financing the investment, since your credit rating has declined and your debt to income ratio is higher, your investments become a lot more expensive due to higher interest rates.

So while a purchase of Fox with that amount of assumption of debt doesn't mean that a 3rd gate is dead, it does make it more likely to be scaled down, postponed, or even outright cancelled.

You seem to forget thanks to Beijing all of their upcoming projects R&D is already paid for....so essentially upcoming park will just be strictly building and design costs which are significantly reducing the budget. Also you guys are acting like Universal is Disney...Diagon Alley and Hogsmeade costed them ~250 million in costs. Even Volcano Bay didn't even hit 500 million. Pandora cost Disney 1 billion. Comcast isn't too worried.

 

[Stripes]

You seem to forget thanks to Beijing all of their upcoming projects R&D is already paid for....so essentially upcoming park will just be strictly building and design costs which are significantly reducing the budget. Also you guys are acting like Universal is Disney...Diagon Alley and Hogsmeade costed them ~250 million in costs. Even Volcano Bay didn't even hit 500 million. Pandora cost Disney 1 billion. Comcast isn't too worried.

Isn't it the Beijing park that's going massively over budget (the "expansion" is just an excuse, everyone knows it), and has been pushed back yet another year to 2021?

According to many insiders the Beijing park is full of duplicates. And yes, I trust the word of insiders much more than the word of CCP-controlled corporations.

 

[Stripes]

Once again, I must note that the largest shareholders in Fox, Disney, and Comcast are the same entities. Would they rather Comcast have Fox, or Disney. The answer is crystal clear.

Plus, with an all-cash offer, the spin off of new Fox is taxable.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It's not about struggling... It's the fact that Comcast is going to take on a fairly significant amount of debt if this deal goes through (their own for the purchase + Fox's debt + the $$$ they would owe Disney for withdrawing from the original sale). Add to that the potential lowering of their credit rating, and investing in anything becomes harder. For one, your spending a lot more money on interest, so your cash reserves go down, leaving less to invest in large projects like a park. And, if you're financing the investment, since your credit rating has declined and your debt to income ratio is higher, your investments become a lot more expensive due to higher interest rates.

So while a purchase of Fox with that amount of assumption of debt doesn't mean that a 3rd gate is dead, it does make it more likely to be scaled down, postponed, or even outright cancelled.

I was pointing out the “duster double standard”...which is starting to look heavy as this drags on. The universe doesn’t “want disney to have it”...it’s just money. Since when does debt ever hold the big dogs back?

...that’s only applies to the honest people.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You seem to forget thanks to Beijing all of their upcoming projects R&D is already paid for....so essentially upcoming park will just be strictly building and design costs which are significantly reducing the budget. Also you guys are acting like Universal is Disney...Diagon Alley and Hogsmeade costed them ~250 million in costs. Even Volcano Bay didn't even hit 500 million. Pandora cost Disney 1 billion. Comcast isn't too worried.

...like it or not, inefficiency and cost overruns continue to plague WDI and has reduced the parks substantially from their potential over the last 30 years. The last “reasonable” budget ride for the product constructed in Florida was probably rockinrollercoaster...and even that’s debatable.

 

[Quinnmac000]

Isn't it the Beijing park that's going massively over budget (the "expansion" is just an excuse, everyone knows it), and has been pushed back yet another year to 2021?

According to many insiders the Beijing park is full of duplicates. And yes, I trust the word of insiders much more than the word of CCP-controlled corporations.

Yes because a park full of duplicates would require such a huge budget for things that already are developed and created??? Does that actually make sense to you?

Labor and materials are cheaper in China than the US so you can't use that excuse either.

Also if you knew Chinese history, you would know the who has the bigger stick contest between Shanghai and Beijing. Beijing will do what it takes to beat Shanghai. CCP is based in Beijing so they have a much stronger hope to stick it to the leaders in Shanghai

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/oct/04/world/la-fg-china-rivals-20101004
http://shanghaiist.com/2008/07/16/shanghai_shame/

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Isn't it the Beijing park that's going massively over budget (the "expansion" is just an excuse, everyone knows it), and has been pushed back yet another year to 2021?

According to many insiders the Beijing park is full of duplicates. And yes, I trust the word of insiders much more than the word of CCP-controlled corporations.

More on what’s going into USB here.

It includes:
Jurrasic World
Hogsmeade
Transformers reskin of MSHI
Minions land
Kung Fu Panda land
Water World

 

[Quinnmac000]

More on what’s going into USB here.

It includes:
Jurrasic World
Hogsmeade
Transformers reskin of MSHI
Minions land
Kung Fu Panda land
Water World

It is extremely early placeholders for the concept art from when they first pitched the project...things have evolved since then and it also doesn't cover 35% of the park that is based off Original Chinese IPs.

Also those images which they are basing that off of already caused other websites to cease and desist orders from Universal so take that as you will

 

[the.dreamfinder]

It is extremely early placeholders for the concept art from when they first pitched the project...things have evolved since then and it also doesn't cover 35% of the park that is based off Original Chinese IPs.

Also those images which they are basing that off of already caused other websites to cease and desist orders from Universal so take that as you will

Chinese Movie IPs like “Monster Hunt” or just areas themed after Chinese literature/history?

Because I had heard a version of this park included the latter at one point.