News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[Stripes]

And also before Seascape comes with statements of Brian Roberts power is bad...difference is with Roberts he is vested for life in Comcast success long term while Disney is only focusing on short term gains.

Really dude? Yeah, when you're merging with a $60 billion company all you care about are short-term gains

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

As a consumer who hates Comcast and how they treat their customers, I would love to see them have to pay the Fox breakup fee to Disney and go through the Legal review and be denied and have to pay another 2.5 billion. That would mean 4 billion for nothing and hopefully a class action lawsuit against Robert's and the Comcast Board. If the Federal Government let's such a clear antitrust case get through means the consumers have no protection anymore. It would be bad enough to let Disney have 40 plus percent of the domestic box office, but to let Comcast have it all is insane. Just in 2015 Universal was number 1 at the box office so they should be denied for the same reason Disney should be but if you look into the power and the fact that Comcast has not followed the consent decree they are currently under can't be approved. The do not treat all customers the same and give higher Internet speed to those who subscribe to their TV service and refuse to provide the higher speed to those who only want Internet. It is clear they will use their power to profit more than justified. Again no broadband company should own the content, it is just wrong. Comcast should grow and improve their broadband and be forced to divest NBC Universal.

Domestic BO gross is not enough to try to block a merger.

You do bring up a good point though. Roberts and Comcast are taking a very very high risk gamble. They could have to pay 4B and walk away with nothing. If they win, it'd still cost them 60B + 14B in debt for Fox. 31B for Sky, 1.5B to Disney. Total would be 107.5B.

 

[Crossfire]

As a consumer who hates Comcast and how they treat their customers, I would love to see them have to pay the Fox breakup fee to Disney and go through the Legal review and be denied and have to pay another 2.5 billion. That would mean 4 billion for nothing and hopefully a class action lawsuit against Robert's and the Comcast Board. If the Federal Government let's such a clear antitrust case get through means the consumers have no protection anymore. It would be bad enough to let Disney have 40 plus percent of the domestic box office, but to let Comcast have it all is insane. Just in 2015 Universal was number 1 at the box office so they should be denied for the same reason Disney should be but if you look into the power and the fact that Comcast has not followed the consent decree they are currently under can't be approved. The do not treat all customers the same and give higher Internet speed to those who subscribe to their TV service and refuse to provide the higher speed to those who only want Internet. It is clear they will use their power to profit more than justified. Again no broadband company should own the content, it is just wrong. Comcast should grow and improve their broadband and be forced to divest NBC Universal.

You're absolutely right, neither companies should get Fox. But, Disney is the most likely to get through regulators.

 

[PaulZ]

As a consumer who hates Comcast and how they treat their customers, I would love to see them have to pay the Fox breakup fee to Disney and go through the Legal review and be denied and have to pay another 2.5 billion. That would mean 4 billion for nothing and hopefully a class action lawsuit against Robert's and the Comcast Board. If the Federal Government let's such a clear antitrust case get through means the consumers have no protection anymore. It would be bad enough to let Disney have 40 plus percent of the domestic box office, but to let Comcast have it all is insane. Just in 2015 Universal was number 1 at the box office so they should be denied for the same reason Disney should be but if you look into the power and the fact that Comcast has not followed the consent decree they are currently under can't be approved. The do not treat all customers the same and give higher Internet speed to those who subscribe to their TV service and refuse to provide the higher speed to those who only want Internet. It is clear they will use their power to profit more than justified. Again no broadband company should own the content, it is just wrong. Comcast should grow and improve their broadband and be forced to divest NBC Universal.

I totally agree. When they purchased NBC Universal I thought it was a wretched decision to allow. I guess in theory I don’t mind if a broadband company owned say a few old tv shows (would anyone care if they owned ALF) and old movies without much of a shelf life. But it’s highly doubtful the holders of those IPs or ones like it would sell just a few.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Funny thing, as I'm reading this thread I'm sitting on a train in Boston. The people near me are discussing how ESPN's new service is going to be a winner because of the sports gambling, solely based on the rights that they have. ESPN's biggest liability may turn into it's biggest asset.

But that’s just their opinion...as is mine.

I’ll wait and see what happens. 20 years ago, Espn was the dominant/most profitable entity in all of mass media.

The last five years they have fired their talent because they literally can’t pay them.

Crystal balls are always tough...and never guaranteed

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I totally agree. When they purchased NBC Universal I thought it was a wretched decision to allow. I guess in theory I don’t mind if a broadband company owned say a few old tv shows (would anyone care if they owned ALF) and old movies without much of a shelf life. But it’s highly doubtful the holders of those IPs or ones like it would sell just a few.

Isn’t that every sector though?

The reality is the regulators are bought/influenced to allow things that shouldn’t be allowed to merge...merge.

Examples?

1. Corporate farms
2. Energy
3. Tech
4. Defense contractors
5. Airlines


...just off the rapid fire

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Domestic BO gross is not enough to try to block a merger.

You do bring up a good point though. Roberts and Comcast are taking a very very high risk gamble. They could have to pay 4B and walk away with nothing. If they win, it'd still cost them 60B + 14B in debt for Fox. 31B for Sky, 1.5B to Disney. Total would be 107.5B.

...and yet...they aren’t flinching.

We do remember who Brian Roberts is, right?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Really dude? Yeah, when you're merging with a $60 billion company all you care about are short-term gains

How many times are you gonna ask the same question and play dumb on the answer??

Iger and the Disney board are not lifers....

Roberts is...because grandpappy started the thing (or somebody)...I can run over and ask him at his penthouse now if you give me 1/2 hour...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney will top the Comcast bid if they have to. Their balance sheet is already much stronger and they have lots of options to choose from.

What exactly do rate “strength of balance sheet” on? Just curious...

Because Comcast has never any problem getting cash or buying/doing what they want...you better let the Fed and Warren buffet know so they’re not in the dark anymore.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

...and yet...they aren’t flinching.

We do remember who Brian Roberts is, right?

A major shark, no one is denying that. Just putting things in perspective, Mr. PA.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They're not pushing for Comcast over Disney, they're pushing for a bidding war.

The letter is meaningless though. Murdoch has nearly full control of the board. And he would rather reject a cash offer and sell to nobody. Comcast knows this and they're not serious about actually buying Fox, they're serious about stopping Disney. This is also the activist investor Comcast approached. Other firms will likely follow the board recommendation.

Right...and in the end they will twist the regulators to allow whatever is bigger.

Anyone think that AT&T/timewarner thing isn’t ultimately gonna go through?
Of course it will...and then they’ll be Comcast.

And Disney and Verizon will merge...and on and on.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A major shark, no one is denying that. Just putting things in perspective, Mr. PA.

...otherside of the mighty Delaware.

Yes...the shark thing too...

But I meant (as some have forgotten or were in 6th grade) Roberts made the unsolicited bid for Disney that basically sealed the coffin on Eisner...

And why did he do that? Well...if you watched his mannerisms when it happened - he never seemed like he wanted it at that time.

So what may/probably happened? He received a call from Shamrock Holdings and played along...

Inspector Holmes always stressed addressing all the facts of the case.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Clarification: You're saying that Iger gutted recession proofing by (using your example) raising the price of a hypothetical family's WDW vacation in good times from $3000 to $4000. So when recession kicks in they will choose to save by not going on the trip?

So under the pre-Iger scheme, are you saying that this family would be paying $3000 in good times and would continue to pay $3000 during a recession? But under the Iger scheme, this family would be paying $4000 in good times and would cancel their trip to WDW unless it was discounted to $2000? Or are you saying that under both schemes, the hypothetical family would only go on their WDW trip during a recession for $2000? And that to Wall Street, a 33% drop to the top line is better than 50% drop from a higher base?

Thanks in advance for the explanation.

Bigger issues than simple calculations...the number of families to maintain the stock and fill the place would fall below the huge numbers required because they wouldn’t have the cash/credit like the drunken sailors they are right now.

And if you discount to the point to get them back...revenues plummet and there hell to pay between battery park and canal....

But back to first base...I don’t want jakeman to cramp up typing all his well reasoned points

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wanted to see how cheap a Disney vacation could be with staying on property. So I priced out a 5 day/4 night stay in early December with theme park tickets (no hopper) for a family of 4. Assuming the kids are both under 10, the cheapest hotel (All Star Music) was $112/night rack rate, so $450 for the stay. Tickets are $1500 for said family. Throw in another $500 for food, and that's a $2000 vacation. Now apply some discounts. Let's say during a recession Disney provides a 20% discount on the room and free dining. That cuts the nightly rate to $90 for a total of $360 + $1500 = $1860. Or they provide the same in a package for $1500. There are ways to do Disney today and in the hypothetical recession that are nowhere near the $4k range.

How ya getting there?

And what type of birdseed are you eating that will get the cost to under $100 a day to feed 4 their?

That sure is “magical”...I’m sure the downshift won’t be noticed by the kids

 

[mikejs78]

As a consumer who hates Comcast and how they treat their customers, I would love to see them have to pay the Fox breakup fee to Disney and go through the Legal review and be denied and have to pay another 2.5 billion. That would mean 4 billion for nothing and hopefully a class action lawsuit against Robert's and the Comcast Board. If the Federal Government let's such a clear antitrust case get through means the consumers have no protection anymore. It would be bad enough to let Disney have 40 plus percent of the domestic box office, but to let Comcast have it all is insane. Just in 2015 Universal was number 1 at the box office so they should be denied for the same reason Disney should be but if you look into the power and the fact that Comcast has not followed the consent decree they are currently under can't be approved. The do not treat all customers the same and give higher Internet speed to those who subscribe to their TV service and refuse to provide the higher speed to those who only want Internet. It is clear they will use their power to profit more than justified. Again no broadband company should own the content, it is just wrong. Comcast should grow and improve their broadband and be forced to divest NBC Universal.

How many times must it be said - market share alone is not grounds for regulatory action in the US. Comcast's antitrust issue isnt with universal and fox. It's the fact that they are both a producer and a distributor.

 

[Stripes]

Roberts is...because grandpappy started the thing (or somebody)

He's heavily invested, which means he's not liking the stock price right now.

What exactly do rate “strength of balance sheet” on? Just curious...

Because Comcast has never any problem getting cash or buying/doing what they want...you better let the Fed and Warren buffet know so they’re not in the dark anymore.

Disney's credit rating vs Comcast's

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

He's heavily invested, which means he's not liking the stock price right now.

Disney's credit rating vs Comcast's

Family business....

 

[Stripes]

Family business....

The family owns ⅓ of the voting shares. They don't have absolute control nor is it a "family business".

 

[seascape]

He's heavily invested, which means he's not liking the stock price right now.

Disney's credit rating vs Comcast's

Moody's is ready to lower Comcasts rating from A3 down. That means higher interest rates. Plus if Disney says they will guarantee the 32.50 a share by paying cash for whatever the difference is on closing, then Comcast will have to go higher. Disney has the advantage here as they are offering cash. Comcast's Board has to look after all shareholders and clearly this is a a terrible deal for them. It's just that one person with too much power wants his way. The CBS case in Delaware will open Comcast to litigation. I hope Comcast Stockholders wake up and someone starts a lawsuit. Of course as I said before I would like nothing better than Comcast to have to pay 4 billion for nothing. That is the cost of your 3rd gate.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The family owns ⅓ of the voting shares. They don't have absolute control nor is it a "family business".

lol...you’re one of those youngin’ literal types, huh?

It was started by the Roberts family and since they control 33% of a huge company...that makes them the ad hoc controlling block. But it is a public company.

Seriously...how old are you and why do you not embrace humor?

These things are starting to really matter around here...