PizzaPlanet
Well-Known Member
Now I'm thinking maybe I should make a bid.
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News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition
- Thread starter ohioguy
- Start date
Now I'm thinking maybe I should make a bid.
Stripes
Premium Member
The NBCU deal is worlds apart from this offer. For one this would be 3x the size of NBCU. Taking on nearly $100 billion in debt while your stock is in the tubes, is just complete insanity. Sure, Comcast is desperate, they absolutely don't want Disney getting a hold of Fox because of how much power Disney would have, which is why Roberts called up Fox the day it was leaked that Disney was in negotiations.
It doesn't matter much anyway, the offer is DOA. It's not even a premium on Disney's offer considering Disney is taking on Fox's debt as well. Bear in mind, DOJ arguably has a much stronger case against Comcast than AT&T, especially with cable providers like RCN already bulking up with complaints against them.
Put it this way, would you rather Comcast have Fox or a third gate in Orlando? They'd be 100% focused on lowering their debt pile before they'd consider plonking down another $3 billion for another gate.
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Stripes
Premium Member
You're right, they wouldn't care about the debt (got mixed up), but shareholders in the company, especially large ones such as the Murdochs, investment banks, etc. would be against an all-cash vs stock offer because stock is tax deferred, whereas a cash offer isn't.
Anyway, it's a hostile bid, I don't think it has the slightest chance, especially if Murdoch gets involved (which he will of course). Comcast would need 84% of the remaining voters on board to block the Disney offer, with Murdoch holding 40% of the voting power. Also, Comcast shareholders will be absolutely against this move. It's a massive stretch, and I don't understand why Roberts is still pursuing these assets against shareholder wishes.
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Creathir
Well-Known Member
Completely agree.
They’d Benin the same position Clear Channel was in when they went private and the founders cashed out.
$27 billion in debt requiring servicing where the majority medium they operate in (radio) was in the decline... meant bankruptcy.
The same will eventually happen with Comcast if they take on $100 billion in debt.
Murdoch would be laughing all the way to the bank, and the Comcast shareholders would be getting screwed.
If accurate, this is unbelievably insane.
Stripes
Premium Member
Antitrust wise, Roberts has dug himself a nice hole. AT&T's strongest argument is how much they need Time Warner to compete against Silicon Valley, meanwhile Roberts has been making comments to the media and shareholders that Comcast feels they don't need to purchase anybody. DOJ would pounce on those comments in court.
Fox would also have to pay Disney $1.525 billion if they called the deal off, thereby giving Disney massive leverage. In fact, given the gross uncertainty, that alone almost solidifies that Disney will come out on top. Either way, Disney wins here.
Fox would also have to pay Disney $1.525 billion if they called the deal off, thereby giving Disney massive leverage. In fact, given the gross uncertainty, that alone almost solidifies that Disney will come out on top. Either way, Disney wins here.
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I just hope Disney keeps looking at this as a business deal and not taking what Comcast does personally. The deal Disney made with Fox was reasonable and better for both companies. If Comcast wants to over pay for Fox and hurt the ending company so be it, but I would run away from any company the size of a merged Comcast/Fox that has the debt load being put on it.
Or they might just be driving up the Fox price to make Disney hurt a little bit more at the closing.
PB Watermelon
Well-Known Member
Universal has been @#$%ing with Disney since Oswald. The rivalry between those two companies is off the charts. Universal even blocked Walt from developing his original plan for Disneyland in the small real estate by the Burbank studio, leading Walt to go looking elsewhere....some little orange groves in Anaheim.
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
Uh no.
This is about Comcast getting back at Disney over their failed takeover attempt in the early aughts.
PB Watermelon
Well-Known Member
And they bought Universal instead when Roy & Stanley fought them off. So Universal is part of Comcast, and the rivalry continues,
Kamikaze
Well-Known Member
That is literally the exact opposite of what happened.
Roy was the one who brought Comcast to the table to make the hostile takeover bid. It was all a ploy to get Eisner out, which succeeded, and the bid failed because it was too low (which Roy knew when he told them to make that offer).
Read 'DisneyWar'.
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I am not sure who the analyst was on CNBC this morning who brought up an interesting court case the Supreme Court will rule on this summer that will have a major roll in deciding who will end up with Fox. The case is sports betting and legalizing it in many states. The reason this will play a roll is it's effect on ESPN ratings and value. He predicted Disney's stock price will rise significantly making Disney stock a much better value than Comcasts cash. Very interesting topic and analysis. As I said previously I want tax deferred stock rather than taxable cash for my Fox shares.
I still hope this merger will get blocked.
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
This! I don't think Iger would chase an expensive deal, that hasn't been his MO, he really hasn't overpaid for anything (well, maybe Maker).
I don't think Comcast is going to leverage themselves this much for both Fox and SKY, I think this is more about getting Fox to release it's SKY holdings. That is the play here that makes the most sense. Comcast gets SKY (and maybe Star India - but I think Disney will fight harder for that) and Disney gets the rest per the original agreement. Comcast would have trouble getting a full Fox purchase completed, the Time-AT&T deal doesn't pave the way for a major US internet/TV provider to buy 2 studios.
BoarderPhreak
Well-Known Member
Besides the fact that Roberts and Iger hate each other... So this is personal, too.
DisneyFreak
Well-Known Member
Great read!
Fox will never make a deal that does not include a breakup fee if it is denied or the buyer walks away. That was why Comcast lost the first time. Now they will not only have to pay more than Disney to buy Fox but also another 1.5 billion Fox will have to pay Disney if they back out
RSoxNo1
Well-Known Member
$1.5 billion or Marvel theme park rights?