-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition
- Thread starter ohioguy
- Start date
I think we will know how serious Comcast is about keeping their 30% of Hulu. If they are, expect them to go after the 10% giving them 40% and an even more powerful partner.
Quinnmac000
Well-Known Member
Assuming AT&T doesn't give it to Comcast in exchange for content on Warnermedia streaming service...(they already in deals for that)
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Well-Known Member
ATT made it clear they will want money. Universal and Dreamwork content can be used to sweeten the pot, but Comcast would have to cough up the dough. As @seascape said we will see Comcast's real interest on the platform if/when ATT puts the asset up for sale.
bartholomr4
Well-Known Member
For what it is worth, I have researched the equity relationship of the Hulu ownership. It appears from reading both the Comcast and 21CF annual reports, the shareholders are responsible annually for any Hulu shortfall to cover financial losses. So if at the end of the year, Hulu P&L ends up with a $100 loss, AT&T pays $10, 21CF pays $30, Comcast pays $30 and Disney pays $30. In return they get additional equity (in the form of stock I assume).
Looking at Disney's historical financials, their % of Hulu has fluctuated over time, with at one point in time they owned a high of 38% of Hulu. This makes me think that Comcast's 30% isn't as "Fixed" as we think(It would only stay at 30% if they pay 30% of the shortfall). With 70% of the Board, (assuming Disney and AT&T cut a deal) and vote, it appears to me, Disney could contribute more of the loss, or capital investment (which we suspect there will be a great deal of, when they expand into Europe, etc), and as a result they could push their equity position to the point where they force Comcast to sell.
We all know there are lawyers involved, and I am not saying this is likely, but Disney could reduce Comcast's presence on the board, and limit access to data, without forcing Comcast out of their ownership position...... A little Machiavellian, I know, and not sure if my scenario here would fit with Iger's management style, but Hulu is not a publicly traded company. The rules are slightly different on how a forced sale would occur( if Disney has 90% ownership could they force Comcast to sell?).
Comcast debt load is thru the roof too, just like AT&T...... not sure they will want to match Disney's investment in Hulu from here on out.
Thoughts?
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
Personally I think Comcast will eventually be happy to part ways with their Hulu stake. They already see viewing patterns for netflix and hulu, and CBS All Access and and and...just by watching their data network. An analyst said a few weeks back that Comcast needs to see the viewing patterns on these services. No they don't. Comcast sees a lot already, just like AT&T does. Plus this is one of the reasons why Comcast has allowed Netflix to be on their set top boxes, they get even more information.
Comcast and WB needed a place to sell their programs so that Netflix didn't give them cheap deals on existing programming. Now that everyone is starting their own streaming services, they don't need Hulu for that.
Most analysts think people will subscribe to 3 or less streaming services. I am leaning to Hulu, Disney plus and Warner's level 2. I cant see buying Warners level 3 if I buy the other 2. I expect to drop Netflix since it's not worth buying without Disney, Marvel. Pixar, Lucas, Fox, Fox 2000, Fox Searchlight and all the WB stuff.
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
I don't buy the 3 services thing. But I do think all of WB TV Streaming will be included in their level 2 package (DCU, Boomerang, etc) plus originals (it may not start that way, but will evolve that way).
And I see Amazon, Hulu and Apple being consolidators of streaming packages. All already do it to varying degrees, Amazon probably the most advanced, to create the pick a bundle universe that everyone wanted on cable.
maybe, just maybe, the average person that gets streaming service will have 3, but I doubt even that.
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
I honestly think it is gonna average more like 5 per household. But even at that level, it leaves a lot of losers in the marketplace.
I personally think the avg household MIGHT HAVE 2. But there will still be so many household that have 0 that will throw this number way down.
brodie999
Active Member
I agree. If Disney wants to have full ownership of Hulu, they'd have to negotiate with Comcast and WarnerMedia to give up their stakes in Hulu. Sometimes, buying companies along with their percentage of stakes on streaming services can lead to conflict with their rivals.
Twilight_Roxas
Well-Known Member
I don't think all of Fox like Ryan Murphy's AHS.
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
So I’ll reframe. The average cord cutting household will have 5 per household, which will mimic the cable bundle for entertainment options. But I think the streaming alternative will actually start protecting the cable bundle over the next few years.
mikejs78
Well-Known Member
In 5-10 years I don't think the number of households with 0 will be that large. Already 60% of households have at least one streaming service, and I only see that number increasing.
How so?
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
The cable bundle will start looking simple. You’ll have three options, cable bundle, streaming bundle from an aggregator (Apple, Amazon, Hulu) or just pull together your own. On your own will seem like too many disparate choices and bills for a fair number of people, they will keep a version of the cable bundle and linear television alive.
One thing seems certain, Disney is looking to stack the deck with Disney+ to make sure it doesn’t get left behind.
bartholomr4
Well-Known Member
Minor news, but consistent with the merger, Disney retired (eliminated) all Series B Convertible Stock..... None was outstanding but it does a little "house cleaning" prior to completing the 21CF merger.....
From SEC.gov: On November 28, 2018, The Walt Disney Company (the "Company") filed a Certificate of Elimination with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware with respect to the Company's Series B Convertible Preferred Stock (the "Series B Convertible Preferred Stock") which, effective upon filing, eliminated from the Company's Restated Certificate of Incorporation all matters set forth in the Certificate of Designation for the Series B Convertible Preferred Stock.
From SEC.gov: On November 28, 2018, The Walt Disney Company (the "Company") filed a Certificate of Elimination with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware with respect to the Company's Series B Convertible Preferred Stock (the "Series B Convertible Preferred Stock") which, effective upon filing, eliminated from the Company's Restated Certificate of Incorporation all matters set forth in the Certificate of Designation for the Series B Convertible Preferred Stock.
This is exactly why we still have cable. To get everything we want, that’s too many bills and really the cost for cable (feautures in x1 platform are user friendly) isn’t much more. We do have one streaming service amazon, but that’s because it came with prime and we RARELY use it. I know people that have 5+ streaming services and the cost doesn’t make sense, after paying for internet.