News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

S

seascape

Well-Known Member
Quinnmac000 said:
God no, Liberty Global barely owns anything and everything it does own is co-owned with another entity.
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Liberty Global has revenue of $16.6 billion and Sky has $16.03. They are close in size. I think Sky is a bit better but is it worth more than 34 billion if Liberty Global is worth 22.76 billion so adding a 20% profit for a takeover would make it 27.31. Maybe Disney should consider it if they don't get Sky. Both companies still offer lots of expansion possibilities in Europe.
 
bartholomr4

bartholomr4

Well-Known Member
Crossfire said:
"DOJ has launched a preliminary review of a possible Comcast-Fox deal and could have a position on the matter by next week, sources say."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/busines...e-warner-deal-may-be-appealed-by-justice-dept

Seems like their decision will be similar to the AT&T merger, DOJ wanted them to sell CNN and DirecTV. I wonder what would they demand for comcast.
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Crossfire said:
"DOJ has launched a preliminary review of a possible Comcast-Fox deal and could have a position on the matter by next week, sources say."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/busines...e-warner-deal-may-be-appealed-by-justice-dept

Seems like their decision will be similar to the AT&T merger, DOJ wanted them to sell CNN and DirecTV. I wonder what would they demand for comcast.
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Comcast will have to deal with existing DOJ concerns about the 2011 Consent Decree in their merger with NBC/Universal. There are number of complaints from competitors about Comcast "playing loose" with the pricing rules contained in the decree. The 2011 Decree is scheduled to expire next month..... Without the 21CF merger, the DOJ is likely to petition the court to extend the Consent Decree..... If you add 21CF to the mix, it isn't the additional competitive issues which will be considered but also how the prior agreements were complied with or ignored.
 
smile

smile

Well-Known Member
even when looking just at the surface, it's rather unfair to consider either way on this to be the 'morally superior' one...
yes, comcast has a horrible track record for customer service (as do most all cable companies), but a twdc merger will result in the loss of far more jobs.

which is interesting commentary in itself - by definition, when comparing propsals, the merger most likely to get regulatory approval is one that results in a higher percentage of jobs lost.
 
Lensman

Lensman

Well-Known Member
smile said:
even when looking just at the surface, it's rather unfair to consider either way on this to be the 'morally superior' one...
yes, comcast has a horrible track record for customer service (as do most all cable companies), but a twdc merger will result in the loss of far more jobs.

which is interesting commentary in itself - by definition, when comparing propsals, the merger most likely to get regulatory approval is one that results in a higher percentage of jobs lost.
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What makes you think that mergers are more likely to get regulatory approval when they will result in more jobs lost?

The purpose of regulatory approval is to protect the consumer, not the protection of workers. So it wouldn't surprise me if what you say is inadvertently true and that mergers that result in more cost-savings from elimination of redundancy are more likely to be approved due to lack of consumer harm. OTOH, isn't it simply that mergers that create monopolies (or reduce competition too much) are denied regulatory approval?

I mean, I'm as happy as the next guy to complain about "the man" holding down the proletariat, but if we want to protect redundant jobs, we can't depend on antitrust laws for that.
 
Rodan75

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
smile said:
even when looking just at the surface, it's rather unfair to consider either way on this to be the 'morally superior' one...
yes, comcast has a horrible track record for customer service (as do most all cable companies), but a twdc merger will result in the loss of far more jobs.

which is interesting commentary in itself - by definition, when comparing proposals, the merger most likely to get regulatory approval is one that results in a higher percentage of jobs lost.
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Either merger will result in a lot of job loss, but the Comcast one would be slightly worse since the Fox teams lead and support types of productions that Disney doesn't currently do, unlike Comcast which has 100% overlap. Fox Searchlight is probably the best example. I would argue that Disney doesn't also do as much 'mature focused' cable production as FX does, whereas Comcast has UCP where there would be significant overlap.
 
Rodan75

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
Looks like Greenfield is whining that Disney may actually be successful on Fox, from THR:

Richard Greenfield of BTIG notes that Disney CEO Bob Iger has called Sky the “crown jewel” of the Fox assets Disney is trying to acquire and that the company has already created a new division dubbed “international and direct-to-consumer, so it is unlikely Iger will back away from Sky for any reason.

“If Disney does walk away from Sky in return for Comcast abandoning its bid for Fox, effectively splitting up the assets, it certainly feels like the two sides worked together even though they are not allowed to talk to each other,” Greenfield opined in a report published Wednesday. “ Colluding without colluding? Feels like public shareholders of both Fox and Sky failed to get maximum value if there was in fact splitting-the-assets cooperation.”
 
Stripes

Stripes

Well-Known Member
Rodan75 said:
Looks like Greenfield is whining that Disney may actually be successful on Fox, from THR:

Richard Greenfield of BTIG notes that Disney CEO Bob Iger has called Sky the “crown jewel” of the Fox assets Disney is trying to acquire and that the company has already created a new division dubbed “international and direct-to-consumer, so it is unlikely Iger will back away from Sky for any reason.

“If Disney does walk away from Sky in return for Comcast abandoning its bid for Fox, effectively splitting up the assets, it certainly feels like the two sides worked together even though they are not allowed to talk to each other,” Greenfield opined in a report published Wednesday. “ Colluding without colluding? Feels like public shareholders of both Fox and Sky failed to get maximum value if there was in fact splitting-the-assets cooperation.”
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He's always whining about something. The guy's ignorance grates on my nerves.

Over the course of this bidding war I've learned you really have to be your own analyst, cause most of them get paid way too much to spew nonsense.
 
Rodan75

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
DoubleJ21 said:
He's always whining about something. The guy's ignorance grates on my nerves.

Over the course of this bidding war I've learned you really have to be your own analyst, cause most of them get paid way too much to spew nonsense.
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In one of my old jobs, I had a lot of insight into the information we provided to Analysts and then could compare that to the 'conclusions' they drew from that data. Some were crazy insightful and identified trends that we hadn't thought about, both positive and negative. Others, created fiction about our company and it was apparent that they had never looked at the data, let alone spent any time understanding the company, which was scary when some big banks were using Analysts for industries they barely understood. So generally I treat analysts like bloggers, they have opinions and perspectives, but don't always have facts.

I know some folks around here freaked out when Iger blocked Greenfield, but more and more you can see he is working off a personal narrative and not from observing the company and its data. Greenfield wasn't just a dissenting voice, but a dissenting voice with no connection to reality. It was a bold move that hurt Iger in the press, but seems like the right choice.
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
Rodan75 said:
Looks like Greenfield is whining that Disney may actually be successful on Fox, from THR:

Richard Greenfield of BTIG notes that Disney CEO Bob Iger has called Sky the “crown jewel” of the Fox assets Disney is trying to acquire and that the company has already created a new division dubbed “international and direct-to-consumer, so it is unlikely Iger will back away from Sky for any reason.

“If Disney does walk away from Sky in return for Comcast abandoning its bid for Fox, effectively splitting up the assets, it certainly feels like the two sides worked together even though they are not allowed to talk to each other,” Greenfield opined in a report published Wednesday. “ Colluding without colluding? Feels like public shareholders of both Fox and Sky failed to get maximum value if there was in fact splitting-the-assets cooperation.”
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At this point if Disney wants Sky then bid on it. Comcast can bid on Fox but Fox has to turn it down because a Comcast Fox merger would tried for antitrust. Fox cant risk paying Disney 1.5 billion and getting nothing. Now I guess if Comcast were willing to pay a 10 billion breakup fee if it were blocked I would take the chance but do you think Brian Robert's and the Comcast Board would offer such a high breakup fee? Disney will get Fox in 2 weeks. As for Sky, it is up to Disney to decide how much they will bid. Then if they decide the price is too high, they have to decide if they want to make Comcast pay for the 39% of Sky they own or keep it. The choice is Disney's. Comcast has to decide if they still want to be partners in Hulu but they can't dictate the price. British law because of the merger protects existing stockholders better than US law.

Now at the end of the day, I think if Comcast wants Sky more than Disney does a reasonable deal will be worked out on all the assests both companies own. And yes that means resolving the themepark rights too. Disney has all the power on these two mergers. They only need to get a minority of the non-Fox shares to vote against Comcast. Iger has made it clear he has no problem working with minority owners AT&T and Comcast on Hulu.
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
bartholomr4 said:
Me Thinks Wall Street thinks this is over (at least the 21CF acquisition)..... Disney trading above $110....
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Fox will want to bid more for Sky. Based on the deal which sets a range for the number of share of stock each Fox owner gets if the price of Disney Stock goes over 114.32 the exchange rate is .3324. Therefore it's in Murdoch's interest to keep the price below that and the more that is paid for Sky the more debt Disney gets and the lower the stock price goes. On the other hand if Comcast way over pays for Sky the price Disney will get for the 39% of Sky goes up and so will the Disney stock price. So if the stock goes up to 135 a share in the next 12 months each share of Fox is work $19.00 plus 1/2 the conversion price of 22.43 for a total of 41.43.
 
Indy_UK

Indy_UK

Well-Known Member
Just imagine Disney having 100% of SKY, Star TV, another 30% of Hulu and all these other assets from Fox. It’s massive....

Are Disney essentially doubling themselves in size and value?
 
M

mab7689

Active Member
When Disney launch their own streaming service in the US next year will having a majority stake in Hulu be a competition issue? Would it be likely their 60% will be offloaded in that event?
 

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