News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[bartholomr4]

Thank god, it's been worse than waiting for Christmas

It would be great to get an update from Disney on outstanding approvals required from jurisdictions outside the United States. The last I read, they were waiting on India and China to approve the merger..... If those all come in prior to the shareholder vote, Disney could close the deal three days after the vote. If not.... we will be waiting a little longer.... probably no real impact other than the start of the integration.

 

[Indy_UK]

Wouldn't surprise me after the deal is finalised that it goes quiet for a while. Merging Fox is going to result in quite a few job losses I'd imagine.

Probably results of the extra IP they have obtained may show its fruits at D23 next year?

 

[Rodan75]

It would be great to get an update from Disney on outstanding approvals required from jurisdictions outside the United States. The last I read, they were waiting on India and China to approve the merger..... If those all come in prior to the shareholder vote, Disney could close the deal three days after the vote. If not.... we will be waiting a little longer.... probably no real impact other than the start of the integration.

Even with the vote on the 27th and the US approval, they have been saying that it wouldn't close until the end of the year at the earliest. I am assuming Star India is the hardest part of that. They should provide an update on regulatory approvals either during or just after the shareholder vote.

I imagine that Disney wants to close this as quickly as possible to block any additional shenanigans from Comcast.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

It would be great to get an update from Disney on outstanding approvals required from jurisdictions outside the United States. The last I read, they were waiting on India and China to approve the merger..... If those all come in prior to the shareholder vote, Disney could close the deal three days after the vote. If not.... we will be waiting a little longer.... probably no real impact other than the start of the integration.

August 7th is when they should provide further guidance on foreign regulatory approval.

 

[Crossfire]

Looks like Disney is giving up Sky, as many people predicted.

 

[Quinnmac000]

Probably was decided at Sun Valley over the weekend.

 

[matt9112]

I think most of us are more concerned about comcast getting fox than any of the things that may happen to the parks because of this.
It's all I have been seeing anyways.

why would you honestly care? because x men dont become disney? i mean really competition is good. sure comcast is no angle but disney hasn't been the greatest thing since sliced bread either. im ok with it universal wont have all this debt to worry about and can keep exploding with growth in florida and disney can try to keep up after this deal. i mean is anything in the pipeline at the florida parks really solving the underlying problem of being underbuilt? disney is on a big project spree atm but i dont think when its all over that the crowding etc will have been solved.

 

[seascape]

Looks like Disney is giving up Sky, as many people predicted.

Yes, Disney likely will let Comcast have Sky but there will likely also be a deal which includes Hulu going to Disney and Fox's 39% of Sky going to Comcast. The key advantage Disney has in the negotiations is that they get 4 weeks from when the British set the required price of £14.00 a share that Disney has to offer for Sky to make their final offer. After the 27th they will have Fox and can make a deal with Comcast. Expect a deal that is beneficial to both companies and resolves other issues also. Comcast wants Sky and doesn't want to spend more than the $34 billion they already offered. Any side deals will be applied to the Hulu price. If Comcast and Disney can't work things out they most likely will increase their offer for Sky and participate in the Sky Auction process in 7 weeks.

 

[Rodan75]

Yes, Disney likely will let Comcast have Sky but there will likely also be a deal which includes Hulu going to Disney and Fox's 39% of Sky going to Comcast. The key advantage Disney has in the negotiations is that they get 4 weeks from when the British set the required price of £14.00 a share that Disney has to offer for Sky to make their final offer. After the 27th they will have Fox and can make a deal with Comcast. Expect a deal that is beneficial to both companies and resolves other issues also. Comcast wants Sky and doesn't want to spend more than the $34 billion they already offered. Any side deals will be applied to the Hulu price. If Comcast and Disney can't work things out they most likely will increase their offer for Sky and participate in the Sky Auction process in 7 weeks.

It really feels like the wind is at Disney's back at this point. What are your thoughts on Star India at this point? Do you think Disney really wants them as well, or do you think they are willing to sell that asset?

 

[Stripes]

It really feels like the wind is at Disney's back at this point. What are your thoughts on Star India at this point? Do you think Disney really wants them as well, or do you think they are willing to sell that asset?

Other than the RSNs and maybe Sky, I don't see Disney selling anything else. They wouldn't get the multiple they paid for it.

 

[TwilightZone]

why would you honestly care? because x men dont become disney? i mean really competition is good. sure comcast is no angle but disney hasn't been the greatest thing since sliced bread either. im ok with it universal wont have all this debt to worry about and can keep exploding with growth in florida and disney can try to keep up after this deal. i mean is anything in the pipeline at the florida parks really solving the underlying problem of being underbuilt? disney is on a big project spree atm but i dont think when its all over that the crowding etc will have been solved.

I don't care, that's why you don't see me on this thread a lot. But a lot of other people do, and I can see why. If comcast gets fox, they will become bankrupt and fox would have to be put on sale all over again.

 

[Rodan75]

Other than the RSNs and maybe Sky, I don't see Disney selling anything else. They wouldn't get the multiple they paid for it.

Star India is the only other asset I could see them selling. Without full control of SKY they lose some of the synergy and benefit of having Star India.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I am looking forward to the stockholders meeting on the 27th to find out what the plans are for Fox, Sky and the debt. Based on the CNBC reporting it appears Disney may not bid anymore for Sky.

Now if Disney does not bid anymore on Sky and decide to sell the 39% to Comcast for 39% of the $34 billion they would receive $13.26 billion. Add to that about 15 billion if they sell the RSNs for cash. That totals 28.26 billion of just about $10 billion less than they have to borrow to buy Fox. Then add the $14 billion in debt the are assuming from Fox and subtract the $20 billion stock buyback program they eliminated and the result if in one year they will only owe 4 billion dollars more than they do now and their leverage ratio will be lower than it is today. This is not what I want them to do because I want expansion and a RSN spinoff.

39% of 34B (100% of Sky) = 13.26B
30% of 8.7B (100% of Hulu) = 2.61B

The below are very conservative. I think the worth of each of the below assets are quite likely below that

Fox's non physical (i.e. Google Play, itunes, PSN, etc) distribution rights to Dreamwork Animation movies = 50MM
Hulk, Namor, and other outstanding Marvel movie rights = 200MM
Marvel Theme Park rights East of the Mississippi and Spiderman theme park rights in Japan = 500MM

Swapping all assets like Faber suggested would require an additional ~10B payment - at a minimum - from CMCSA to DIS to complete the transaction.

 

[Quinnmac000]

39% of 34B (100% of Sky) = 13.26B
30% of 8.7B (100% of Hulu) = 2.61B

The below are very conservative. I think the worth of each of the below assets are quite likely below that

Fox's non physical (i.e. Google Play, itunes, PSN, etc) distribution rights to Dreamwork Animation movies = 50MM
Hulk, Namor, and other outstanding Marvel movie rights = 200MM
Marvel Theme Park rights East of the Mississippi and Spiderman theme park rights in Japan = 500MM

Swapping all assets like Faber suggested would require an additional ~10B payment - at a minimum - from CMCSA to DIS to complete the transaction.

Universal already has the distribution rights as of November 2016. They aren't gonna give Marvel Theme Park Rights, and Namor/Hulk rights never expire which means they would rather save them for something better than just Sky.

Universal already said they are fine being minority owners of Hulu but they won't give up Hulu for Sky especially after licensing their entire DreamWorks license and other properties. WB/Universal are already working on their own combined standalone streaming site as well.

If anything, with the reduction of net neutrality the deal will most like deal with Disney streaming sites getting priority as well as other benefits that helps bolster their profile

 

[bartholomr4]

Star India is the only other asset I could see them selling. Without full control of SKY they lose some of the synergy and benefit of having Star India.

I could see them selling the Fox Animation and Blue Sky Divisions.... I have read they would also sell Endemol Shine Group (But they don't have anything like that so not sure why they would)....

 

[Indy_UK]

Interesting. Maybe SKY isn’t the crown jewel of this deal for them then.

Maybe they solely want the Fox IP and content and use their three streaming services (Hulu, ESPN+ and Disney streaming service) to help push that content out. I imagine the overheads for streaming content is a lot lower than doing it on satellite platform like SKY.

I guess that if the 39% of SKY and all the regional sports are sold off and it recoups a huge amount of the cost of buying Fox, that could be quite a clever move.

 

[doctornick]

Other than the RSNs and maybe Sky, I don't see Disney selling anything else. They wouldn't get the multiple they paid for it.

The other big asset of Fox I think they would sell is Blue Sky Studios. Disney is literally the media company that would benefit from Blue Sky the least -- they already have two significant, successful animation studios and just shut down Disney Toons. I feel like Blue Sky would be of interest to some of the other media companies like Sony, Viacom or maybe even a mid-major like Lionsgate.

There's also 20th Century Fox Animation, which I don't think exists except in name. I would assume Disney would simply keep that in terms of the IP (i.e. only Anastasia really), though they could include that in any deal for Blue Sky.

 

[Twilight_Roxas]

Blue Sky Studios is successful too.

 

[seascape]

Star India is the only other asset I could see them selling. Without full control of SKY they lose some of the synergy and benefit of having Star India.

Star India is the leading streaming service in India. Netflix has been unable to gain market share so there is no way Disney will sell anything else.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Universal already has the distribution rights as of November 2016. They aren't gonna give Marvel Theme Park Rights, and Namor/Hulk rights never expire which means they would rather save them for something better than just Sky.

Universal already said they are fine being minority owners of Hulu but they won't give up Hulu for Sky especially after licensing their entire DreamWorks license and other properties. WB/Universal are already working on their own combined standalone streaming site as well.

If anything, with the reduction of net neutrality the deal will most like deal with Disney streaming sites getting priority as well as other benefits that helps bolster their profile

I have already been over this with you specifically. NBCU has distribution rights to physical media, not to online distribution sans possibly streaming. Here is who is distributing Dreamwork animation movies on google play:

https://play.google.com/store/movie...lp=ChIKEAoKc3R1ZGlvX0ZPWBAHGAQ=:S:ANO1ljIZIKw

39% of Sky is worth significantly more than any theme park rights and/or movie rights. It's laughable that you'd save them for something better than just Sky lol. Disney/Comcast might do another Oswald and Comcast might get Jamelle Hill for Hulk movie rights. That's how much those are worth IMO. Let me remind you that Hulk distribution rights is just rights of first refusal to solo Hulk movies. Marvel and Disney can use Hulk however they want otherwise, hence the Planet Hulk adaptation in Thor Ragnarok. Solo Hulk movie rights is worth very little to Disney. Namor rights is worth even less to Disney. Theme park rights in Orlando are also minor as Disney is okay just getting added revenue every year from Comcast without investing any capital. Those rights would just be added incentives and they are minimal.

30% of Hulu is also worth significantly less than 39% of Sky. It's not even close. Numbers are there for any to see. Roberts and company would LOVE to have a one to one trade where they get 39% of Sky for their 30% of Hulu. That's obviously not gonna happen though.