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News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

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seascape

Well-Known Member
The more I think about what is going on in the UK with Sky, the more I think Disney is going to end up with both Fox and Sky. The crazy rules for the Sky merger already say Disney will wind up with it as they are legally required to pay the share price to everyone that they paid to Fox and that is higher than the Comcast bid. Comcast on the other hand has the chance right now to think about their stockholders and Wall Streets vote based on the fact that there shares have dropped from $44.00 a share to $33.59. I believe that purchasing Lionsgate, Paramount or Sony Pictures would be a better use of their money and buying separate distribution companies in Europe and Asia or building their own. Comcast also needs to spend tens of billions on 5G which is their real future.
 
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mab7689

Active Member
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2...eive-clearance-in-bid-for-full-control-of-sky

Another update coming from the UK. Murdoch should receive final clearance from the government to resume his buyout of Sky this week. The current Fox offer is £10.75 a share, which makes a total value of £18.5bn. The current share bid from Comcast is £12.50 per share, making the total value £22bn. This hasn't been formally submitted though and has to be by the end of the week.
The UK Takeover Panel are also likely to set a minimum floor price, which is expected to be above £14 per share.
Once clearance is received it will be in the hands of Murdoch to decide what his revised offer will be.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
smile said:
a market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation, and whim
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I know...I love a good hundred pages of “rationalization”...

The American stock market is not what it once was...its much more like short term river boat gambling...

But it’s fun to watch it all treated like a science.

“That’s it! Disney won...no way the shareholders will go for ____. Now disney has to get the hulk coaster AND the Simpsons ride on a flat bed and haul them down I-4!!”
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
I was on my morning walk this morning and was listening to Fox Business. They claim Comcast is not going to bid against Disney for Fox but are interested in getting some of the assets, specifically the Fox RSNs and didn't say but it is well known they want Sky. After my walk I read that Comcast will be making its formal proposal to buy Sky at a value of 31 billion. Now that makes no sense because it is only 16% higher than Fox's proposed bid which the UK board is determining if it will have to be a 36% higher since Disney increased their Fox offer by that much. In any case, thanks to Comcast, Sky will cost Disney around 35 billion and unless Disney is willing to let it go for that Comcast will have to pay more.

Getting back to the RSNs, Disney should listen to any offer Comcast is willing to make but should be sure that all stockholders get full value. I still think spinning off the RSNs is the best thing for shareholders. Selling to Comcast must bring in a minimum of 20 billion plus a new deal on the Marvel movie and themepark rights. Disney should not offer Comcast any lost cost deal because I think the market cap of a spin off RSN company would be between 20 and 25 billion.
 
Rodan75

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
I was on my morning walk this morning and was listening to Fox Business. They claim Comcast is not going to bid against Disney for Fox but are interested in getting some of the assets, specifically the Fox RSNs and didn't say but it is well known they want Sky. After my walk I read that Comcast will be making its formal proposal to buy Sky at a value of 31 billion. Now that makes no sense because it is only 16% higher than Fox's proposed bid which the UK board is determining if it will have to be a 36% higher since Disney increased their Fox offer by that much. In any case, thanks to Comcast, Sky will cost Disney around 35 billion and unless Disney is willing to let it go for that Comcast will have to pay more.

Getting back to the RSNs, Disney should listen to any offer Comcast is willing to make but should be sure that all stockholders get full value. I still think spinning off the RSNs is the best thing for shareholders. Selling to Comcast must bring in a minimum of 20 billion plus a new deal on the Marvel movie and themepark rights. Disney should not offer Comcast any lost cost deal because I think the market cap of a spin off RSN company would be between 20 and 25 billion.
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Originally I was wondering if this comcast and mouse chase was really about Comcast acquiring SKY and that they would continually threaten the overall Fox deal for Disney to get Iger to give up SKY.

The more I think about it, I don't understand even why Comcast is pushing so hard for SKY, let alone the rest of the Fox assets. They could open their checkbook to John Malone and pick up Liberty Global if they wanted European distribution assets. Pick up Endemol Shine for more internationally recognized branded content. The only thing that really makes sense here is making Iger overpay.
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
Rodan75 said:
Originally I was wondering if this comcast and mouse chase was really about Comcast acquiring SKY and that they would continually threaten the overall Fox deal for Disney to get Iger to give up SKY.

The more I think about it, I don't understand even why Comcast is pushing so hard for SKY, let alone the rest of the Fox assets. They could open their checkbook to John Malone and pick up Liberty Global if they wanted European distribution assets. Pick up Endemol Shine for more internationally recognized branded content. The only thing that really makes sense here is making Iger overpay.
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I think Comcast just wants to keep Disney from getting larger. Disney will have the OTP services so they will no longer be dependent on Comcast for distribution. At the same time with the new cable channels Comcast will be much more dependent on Disney for content. In fact it is scary for cable companies that cable tv is no longer a necessity and that 5G will end the cable monopoly on high speed internet. Something I have been talking about here for several years and is about to become a reality for consumers. I strongly believe Comcast is making a big mistake in trying for content when they should be going all in on 5G service nationwide.
 
bartholomr4

bartholomr4

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
That makes no sense. Why would Comcast try and find buyers for the RSNs? If they found one willing to pay a ton of money wouldn't they pay the same amount to Disney? Or is there an illegal behind the scenes agreement to just increase the rates Comcast customers will pay for the channels?
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To me this is a hint about how much more Comcast is willing to bid..... to reassure Wall Street that an increased bid will not be too much debt. If they can get rid of the RSN's, then they can increase their bid at the value of those RSN's and (in their mind) be at the same place they are now. It's an effort to keep their stock price from dropping into the mid to high 20's.

Of the 22 RSN's, there is a reasonable argument Comcast could keep 8 of them which have no overlap to their current holdings. Do you sell them off 1 at a time, in small clusters, or in one big bundle. Personally, I like the idea of an IPO with the funds going to reduce debt over time.

With 5G investments coming (next gen of wireless), they (Comcast) are going to need capital to invest in the future of their network. I believe Comcast will be selling more than just the RSN's, and at the end of all of this, Disney will be in a better place to get their Marvel IP (controlled by Comcast) under their roof.
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
bartholomr4 said:
To me this is a hint about how much more Comcast is willing to bid..... to reassure Wall Street that an increased bid will not be too much debt. If they can get rid of the RSN's, then they can increase their bid at the value of those RSN's and (in their mind) be at the same place they are now. It's an effort to keep their stock price from dropping into the mid to high 20's.

Of the 22 RSN's, there is a reasonable argument Comcast could keep 8 of them which have no overlap to their current holdings. Do you sell them off 1 at a time, in small clusters, or in one big bundle. Personally, I like the idea of an IPO with the funds going to reduce debt over time.

With 5G investments coming (next gen of wireless), they (Comcast) are going to need capital to invest in the future of their network. I believe Comcast will be selling more than just the RSN's, and at the end of all of this, Disney will be in a better place to get their Marvel IP (controlled by Comcast) under their roof.
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Comcast needs to increase their offer to over 90 billion if they want Fox. The problem with that is the UK merger rules. If they buy Fox for 90 billion that is 80% higher than what Disney originally offered. As a result of that bid, they would have to offer yo buy the rest of Sky at the same price. In other words they would need to offer about 35 billion for the remaining 61% of Sky. That is 4 billion more than they valued the entire company at. Then there is the assumed debt of both Sky and Fox.

Robert's may have complete control of Comcast and have a contract for life but if Comcast goes ahead and does this he is risking the entire company. Comcast has the potential to beat Verizon at 5G and really become the number 1 data distribution company but he is risking it all.

Further if Roberts does make another bid of only 80 billion he will lose a vote. There are too many stockholders who would receive more with Disney's $38.00 a share offer than $41 or 42 from Comcast in cash. Plus most of us know Disney stock is undervalued with 12 months estimated price of 130 to 135 a share. At 130 the Disney offer is worth just under $41 a share. Now, while I don't think Disney will have to offer any more money for Fox, I do think Iger will be very upset at Comcast and respond in other areas.
 

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