Disney’s Q2 FY22 Earnings Results Webcast

[Sirwalterraleigh]

$101.80 after hours, down over $3/share. You can measure the amount of confidence investors have in the crap peddler right now with a thimble.

These numbers should have provided a decent bounce back, but so far it’s still on its downward slide. Maybe tomorrow will change things (I expect it to rebound once the big houses can pump it up) but if this doesn’t move the needle, I’d expect changes. Price hikes won’t save you forever, Bob.

By the numbers, the stock price should go up. But, there are different segments of investors who aren't biting. One group are investors who only (or mostly) want stocks that pay dividends. And Disney isn't doing that again, yet. If Disney would go back to that, its stocks would definitely go up.

Based on all questions about streaming, it now seems investors are getting worried about the loss-leading strategy for streaming -- even tho Disney's streamers seem to be poised to become number one after Netflix's stumble. "Tell me more about the ad tier!" "Tell me how you're spending money for content!" "Tell me about when you're abandoning linear/cable for good." "Tell me you'll reach your benchmark goals."

I've never seen a more streaming-centric quarterly Q&A session before.

They missed their targets, can’t blame
Covid anymore, and…what was the other thing?…

Oh, right…wall street and Hollywood WANT bob out.

How deep do we need to go?

 

[kalel8145]

Maybe if you actually paid attention to the thread, I posted that I sold my position when I was up 2% premarket. I posted that in real time not after the fact.

I’ve been short spy since $466 so my 401k is doing fine.

Thanks for asking though, Babe.

He just likes to see his own condescending posts. Must be close some kind of milestone for post count.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Streaming has never shown the “major profits” that every parent company has promised and day traders have gone batty speculating on. Maybe that’s the real problem?

Not just Disney…any of them.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

He just likes to see his own condescending posts. Must be close some kind of milestone for post count.

You’re off on that. Enjoy the packing

 

[kalel8145]

I have actually decided to put him on ignore after he, not in so many words, wanted me to have a bad trip. Then walked it back after I called him on it by saying oh no he hopes I have a great time. My forum experience has been better.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have actually decided to put him on ignore after he, not in so many words, wanted me to have a bad trip. Then walked it back after I called him on it by saying oh no he hopes I have a great time. My forum experience has been better.

That wasn’t what i said. But you have every right to. Farewell. Have a GOOD trip (as I said in something speculative about the big picture…which is exactly what it was)

 

[doctornick]

Based on all questions about streaming, it now seems investors are getting worried about the loss-leading strategy for streaming -- even tho Disney's streamers seem to be poised to become number one after Netflix's stumble. "Tell me more about the ad tier!" "Tell me how you're spending money for content!" "Tell me about when you're abandoning linear/cable for good." "Tell me you'll reach your benchmark goals."

I've never seen a more streaming-centric quarterly Q&A session before.

I think it actually makes sense to ask those questions. I’ve been wondering for a while what is exactly I’d the endgame for streaming and what a profitable sustainable streaming service looks like. I know they are still in the build out phase and adding more countries to the service but I would like to understand more what exactly a mature streaming service is supposed to look like because Netflix seems to be there now and everyone freaks out when lose a small percentage of subs.

 

[Trauma]

He just likes to see his own condescending posts. Must be close some kind of milestone for post count.

Nah Walter is a good guy. He just has a different style of posting that I think actually brings plenty of positives to the forum. He is what you would call a “acquired taste” and I rather enjoy when he pokes fun at me.

 

[JoeCamel]

I think it actually makes sense to ask those questions. I’ve been wondering for a while what is exactly I’d the endgame for streaming and what a profitable sustainable streaming service looks like. I know they are still in the build out phase and adding more countries to the service but I would like to understand more what exactly a mature streaming service is supposed to look like because Netflix seems to be there now and everyone freaks out when lose a small percentage of subs.

I hope they are not trying to model Netflix for D+. The cost of feeding the content beast is so high the average person finds it a strain to justify the cost as a stand alone, maybe a bundle of streaming options but I think general consolidation is in the future with D+ positioning for that rather than trying to become a mature service at this time.
They can be the big dog if it all goes well but that is far from certain this early in the development cycle

 

[kalel8145]

Nah Walter is a good guy. He just has a different style of posting that I think actually brings plenty of positives to the forum. He is what you would call a “acquired taste” and I rather enjoy when he pokes fun at me.

It's all well and good until you start wishing bad on people just so you can say I told you so.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Nah Walter is a good guy. He just has a different style of posting that I think actually brings plenty of positives to the forum. He is what you would call a “acquired taste” and I rather enjoy when he pokes fun at me.

Wow…you’re defending me?

Shields down, Scotty?

It's all well and good until you start wishing bad on people just so you can say I told you so.

I’m sure I came off wrong…my fault.

The context was I saw you say “I’m going in June!” About 30 times on a variety of threads and the PML and that is obviously excitement. No problem there at all.

And it crossed yesterday into the longterm business strategy and how to gain/foster repeat business on the whole.

That’s a tough thing to settle in my mind.

You may be right - it may not matter. My sandpaper coated suggestion was sometimes you need to step back if we’re talking about the business and what the BAD managers are doing.

Opinions vary. It won’t be the last mistake I make.

 

[seascape]

Disney streaming profitability is being under estimated. The company as a whole says they will spend 32 billion over the next year on content. That includes for streaming, TV, sports rights and movies. That is 2.67 billion a month. Their monthly revenue based on the numbers they reported are 280,608,000 for domestic Disney+, 274,320,000 for international Disney+ less Disney+Hotstar, 38,076,000 for Disney+Hotstar. That totals 593,004,000 a month from Disney+. Hulu brings in 527,678,000 a month from stand alone Hulu and 363,957,000 from Hulu with live TV. ESPN+ brings in 105,479,000 a month. Combined Disney is bringing in 1,537,118,000 a month from streaming and is still growing at a good pace but it is bringing in 57.64% of the total content costs Disney is spending and given the price increases and subscriber growth, I expect streaming to cover the entire content costs for the company in 2024.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think it actually makes sense to ask those questions. I’ve been wondering for a while what is exactly I’d the endgame for streaming and what a profitable sustainable streaming service looks like. I know they are still in the build out phase and adding more countries to the service but I would like to understand more what exactly a mature streaming service is supposed to look like because Netflix seems to be there now and everyone freaks out when lose a small percentage of subs.

Netflix was screwed when they lost The Office and Parks and Rec. Profitability doesn't come from expensive new content that people watch once when it's new and then never touch again. Profitability comes from the catalogue that people will stick on in the background while they fold laundry. For Disney, that's the WDAS back catalogue, the Pixar back catalogue, Star Wars, the MCU, and the Simpsons.

WandaVision drives subs, but five years from now when I introduce my daughter to the MCU, we're starting with Iron Man.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney streaming profitability is being under estimated. The company as a whole says they will spend 32 billion ober the next year on content. That includes for streaming, TV, sports rights and movies. That is 2.67 billion a month. Their monthly revenue based on the numbers they reported are 280,608,000 for domestic Disney+, 274,320,000 for international Disney+ less Disney+Hotstar, 38,076,000 for Disney+Hotstar. That totals 593,004,000 a month from Disney+. Hulu brings in 527,678,000 a month from stand alone Hulu and 363,957,000 from Hulu with live TV. ESPN+ brings in 105,479,000 a month. Combined Disney is bringing in 1,537,118,000 a month from streaming and is still growing at a good pace but it is bringing in 57.64% of the total content costs Disney is spending and given the price increases and subscriber growth, I expect streaming to cover the entire content costs for the company in 2024.

As with any big number business, that’s not the “walk away” revenues and costs. We don’t know what the actual profits would/could be and Wall Street doesn’t either.

For sure - they see 7,900,000 new subscribers in a quarter as “not great”. You can agree or disagree with that…but that’s the way it’s going to be perceived. They know they will bleed subscriptions more as time wears on.

Streaming is no longer “new”…it was…and Disney is…but Now it’s not.

Even Wall Street gamblers/speculators can’t say “it’s gonna be HUGE!” And pump it for money forever. At some point the rubber is gonna meet the road.

 

[Anteater]

All is down now…

Well, not as bad as Netflix. Down 32% vs nearly 60% in the last 3 months. But, hey, Netflix doesn't have theme parks.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Netflix was screwed when they lost The Office and Parks and Rec. Profitability doesn't come from expensive new content that people watch once when it's new and then never touch again. Profitability comes from the catalogue that people will stick on in the background while they fold laundry. For Disney, that's the WDAS back catalogue, the Pixar back catalogue, Star Wars, the MCU, and the Simpsons.

WandaVision drives subs, but five years from now when I introduce my daughter to the MCU, we're starting with Iron Man.

Correct.

And guess what? They don’t have enough and they know it. Why else overpay for Fox and keep Hulu? Disney has a strong library…but not broad enough to make it “mandatory”

Population is going down in the developed world that wastes money on nonsense like streaming…has been for decades.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, not as bad as Netflix. Down 32% vs nearly 60% in the last 3 months. But, hey, Netflix doesn't have theme parks.
View attachment 638252

Yeah…nor legacy broadcast tv…which account for about 80% of Disney’s profits combined.

Down $90 since January 2021.

There’s no lipstick for this piggy.

And even if it was over pumped then - it was - at what point is it real loss and not “correction”?

It was not at $101

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Correct.

And guess what? They don’t have enough and they know it.

They have more than anybody else.

Why else overpay for Fox and keep Hulu? Disney has a strong library…but not broad enough to make it “mandatory”

I think these things answer themselves. Disney has a strong enough library to make it mandatory for parents. Fox (the studios, not the library) and Hulu are an attempt to make it mandatory for everyone.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They have more than anybody else.


I think these things answer themselves. Disney has a strong enough library to make it mandatory for parents. Fox (the studios, not the library) and Hulu are an attempt to make it mandatory for everyone.

They have more than cbs and nbc…not so much netflix or Amazon. But their library is good for who/what it’s for.


I get it…Disney forum, everyone has kids, everyone goes to Orlando…except it’s wrong.

Kids have built Disney…but that’s not a given as much either. Society trends where it matters - NATO basically…NOT China, southeast Asian, Africa or central/South America - are not saying to build on that.

We say “global economy” all the time but are still locked into 1985 America middle class thought processes. I blame Gen X..

Disney’s best pull with kids has been the ability to draw them using merch and parks and media…but some of that stuff is on the decline - adjusted for inflation - As well.

We’re heading towards ready player one…Disney is not looking as strong as consumption changes the way we might think. As I see it.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

They have more than cbs and nbc…not so much netflix or Amazon. But their library is good for who/what it’s for.

Volume and quality are two different things. Netflix and Amazon have huge piles of kids' content but it all sucks. It's so bad, they might as well have none whatsoever.