The 71% represents the number of Americans who say they would get the vaccine today if it was available to them. Of the 29% who said no 31% of them said the reason was they wanted to see if the vaccine was safe or effective. That means they will likely get vaccinated since it’s proven both safe and effective already and that’s unlikely to change. That represents 9% more of the total population polled so 80% of Americans polled will get the vaccine (eventually). The other 20% are still saying no. Assuming an average efficacy of 90% including all 3 vaccines that‘s roughly 72% immune.
In addition we know 8% of the population has been naturally infected with confirmed Covid tests but that number could be 2 to 3 times higher considering asymptomatic spread. For argument sake let’s assume 20% naturally immune by the summer. Assuming those infected have the same 80/20 vaccine split (meaning 20% of those naturally infected don‘t get the vaccine) that’s another 4% of the population who is naturally immune but not vaccinated (20% of 20%). That brings the total immune to 76%.
If you do all the same math but assume only 71% vaccine acceptance that’s 64% immune from the vaccine and 6% from natural immunity due to infection (30% of 20%) getting us to 70% immune. So even if the none of the people who say they wouldn’t get the vaccine right now eventually get it we should reach 70% immune. Kids are still not approved, but likely in a month or so we will be down to 12+. There are roughly 60M kids under 12 who won’t be eligible. So factoring in younger kids we likely get to the low 60s as a percent of total population immune.
On herd immunity, nobody knows. This summer before any vaccines results were announced the consensus seems to be much lower. Estimates in the 40-60% range were frequently thrown around. I get that certain health officials like Fauci have bumped up their estimates to make sure enough people get the vaccine. Ideally we get as many people as possible in to get the shots. The more contagious covid is the higher % we need to reach herd immunity, but the more contagious it is the more asymptomatic cases we have likely had so the number of natural immune also goes up. I think this is why the consensus seems to be that a ballpark number of 70% vaccinated is likely to get us there.
In the U.S., 66% of adults are dissatisfied with how the vaccination process is going.
news.gallup.com
Edit: on timing if we get 80% acceptance of the 270M 12 years and up Americans likely to be authorized by Spring thats 216M total vaccinated. Pfizer and Moderna alone have committed to delivering enough doses for 200M Americans by end of May and JnJ is 100M by end of June or sooner. So more than enough doses to meet total demand by end of May. Then we see how long it takes to finish driving cases down. Could see major impacts by summer 2021.
abcnews.go.com
