JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
End of August? Still not too bad, just a few more months. You are doing amazing with those impediments to progress you listed.
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Disney’s Q1 FY21 Earnings Results Webcast - February 11, 2021
- Thread starter DCBaker
- Start date
If/when the US gets a surplus of vaccines I strongly suspect the mRNA vaccines we no longer need will likely head to Canada and Mexico first, due to the good PR, folstering North American unity, and logistics as those things are a pain to ship long distances.
Those shots have a shelf life on them of about a week in their individual self cooled packaging. So let’s hope they move them quick.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
True. All the dates I through out assume the 3 companies hit their production targets and that the states can get the shots in arms and that people want them. If all 3 things don’t happen we will be further delayed. It appears the states have caught up and are for the most part using most of the doses they have. Pfizer has talked publicly about advances in their production process that are cutting days off the cycle and Moderna is about to get approval to add extra doses to each vial which they say will increase the doses delivered by 50%. A huge deal for Moderna. I’m bullish on them hitting their targets.
On the Disney front I agree they will slow play it and be conservative. Disney won’t be a first mover in removing restrictions but as Chapek said on the call when talking about timing, if every American who wants a shot can have one starting in April or May that’s a game changer and could move up the timeline on when we remove restrictions. My take on that is his original comments on masks and distancing the rest of the year are a very conservative estimate assuming full herd immunity some time in Fall. If things move faster Disney will move faster. If large group gatherings like MLB games and concerts with large crowds return sometime this summer or Fall without masks or distancing I could see Disney following suit. I don’t see Disney keeping all their restrictions if the vast majority of similar activities are back. I also think if the CDC and public health officials no longer recommend masks and distancing that will be a strong trigger for Disney to relax those requirements.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I said something similar in another thread where a Canadian said they didn’t expect the majority of their country would be vaccinated by the end of 2021. Don’t forget the US also has a contract to buy 100M doses of Novavax and 200M doses of AstraZenneca. Even if we don’t need them if they get FDA approval we are on the hook to buy them. Both vaccines are expected to potentially be approved sometime in April or May. If that happens and if he US has more than enough doses for all of their citizens I could some of those doses diverted directly from the manufacturers to other countries. There should be plenty of doses to cover Canada, Mexico and still sell more to Covax or other countries directly.
Absent a pandemic, don’t forget we would be spilling countless pages of back and forth on this forum on the CEO transition and what Bob C’s long term intentions were towards the parks.
Absent a pandemic, there was no real reason to believe the new Bob was going to be any better then the old one on that front, and every reason to believe the parks experience was going continue a decades long trend of ‘optimizing’ the experience. Perhaps even accelerated under new leadership.
This is the real ‘new normal’ story buried in the capX numbers.
Absent a pandemic, there was no real reason to believe the new Bob was going to be any better then the old one on that front, and every reason to believe the parks experience was going continue a decades long trend of ‘optimizing’ the experience. Perhaps even accelerated under new leadership.
This is the real ‘new normal’ story buried in the capX numbers.
Though some very “red” states may bring back large events sooner, nationally the signals are large events are not coming back before the end of the year. Possibly not until well into 2022.
Recent guidance from Fauci and others has been, as we reach 75% vaccination rates, we can safely return to offices, small in-home gatherings, etc.
But full stadiums and concerts, even under optimistic scenarios, aren’t coming back until fall, at the very earliest.
On a mixed front.. I just scheduled my vaccine for early March. Personally, that’s good news for me. But given my state (NY), has only fully vaccinated 4% of the population, it’s almost worrying that a mostly healthy 48 year old can schedule an appointment so soon.
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
I don’t think you’d even have Chapek as CEO without this pandemic.
He’s simply not CEO material.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I have no doubt both the NFL and College Football will be back in the fall with fans in the stands to some extent. Especially college football which had fans in parts of the country this past year. I think MLB will be interesting to watch. I doubt that we will have enough vaccines done by opening day, but they will be pushing for fans in the stands at some point this summer. If we get to everyone who wants a vaccine done by end of June or sooner I have to believe we will see fans in stands at MLB games by July/Aug. It may be that they allow fans and not require distancing but still require masks or it may be that both masks and distancing are gone. I think that depends on the number of cases which will to a large extent depend on how long it takes to vaccinate everyone.
We are already moving in that direction. NY will allow fans in stands — 10% capacity, must bring a negative test certificate.
By fall, I could see it as 25-50% with masks and proof of vaccination. NY Knicks games will allow up to 2,000 fans per game
I don’t think we are going back to 100% capacity maskless any time before November, at the earliest.
WDW seems to be moving in a similar direction — “modified” FOTLK by summer. The fact that they are rehearsing and preparing a modified summer show, is very clear evidence they don’t see “100% normal theater” experiences any time before late fall. (If they really though they could do a normal show by 9/1... they wouldn’t go through all the trouble of creating a modified show to launch in the summer)
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Iger bailing a month before theme parks and movie theaters closed was pretty telling.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think it makes sense we will see a loosening of Covid restrictions starting in the Spring into this summer at WDW. We are already seeing some relaxing of distancing on ride vehicles and I think that will continue as that’s the single biggest issue with increasing overall park capacity. You can’t let more people in if many of the rides are still running at half capacity. I think distancing in queues continues but on ride vehicles we will get to the point where it’s deemed unnecessary since everyone is in a mask and not sitting together for over 15 minutes. I also think that opens the door to larger shows, especially the outdoor ones. They can still do them with some level of distancing and masks. If they add ride capacity and bring back more attractions and shows that will open the door for letting in more people.
When we hit the point where the majority of people are vaccinated I think the pent up demand will push Disney to expand park capacity and probably open more resorts as well, but not any time soon. Probably sometime this summer. I think masks are the last thing to go. Once masks are no longer required or recommended for society as a whole Disney will drop them too. Between now and then having masks allows them to potentially allow in more people and have less distancing since the masks act as a mitigating measure. Again, all assuming cases actually drop due to vaccine and natural infection.
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
and bingo was his name-o Disney was the first to go the mask route, maybe they will be the first to get rid of it too.
we are going mid December hopefully and I really don’t want to wear a mask.
Edit: DDP too please!
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
Regarding streaming services... in a few years they are going to have to start joining together with bundles. This model of everyone having their own platform can’t possibly last and I think it’s a short sighted decision for all involved.
Since Disney already has the Hulu & ESPN bundle, they are in the lead with what I believe will be the future. I’m surprised that Disney+ and Apple+ aren’t already together to be honest.
Since Disney already has the Hulu & ESPN bundle, they are in the lead with what I believe will be the future. I’m surprised that Disney+ and Apple+ aren’t already together to be honest.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I don’t know when this will happen, but my prediction is that Disney will no longer require masks once everyone has had access to a vaccine and the cases have dropped way down. I don’t think lower cases or vaccine rollout alone get it done, it’s a combination of both. The one wrinkle in that is children. If young children aren’t eligible to be vaccinated but everyone 12+ has access to the vaccine and cases drop way, way down then I could see masks being optional or maybe only indoor when in a crowd. As far as predicting timing it’s anyone’s guess. My gut says they won’t require masks anymore in December, but that’s just a guess.Disney was the first to go the mask route, maybe they will be the first to get rid of it too.
we are going mid December hopefully and I really don’t want to wear a mask.
Edit: DDP too please!
On DDP, that’s an even bigger mystery. In theory once they eliminate capacity limits on restaurants that would open the door to bring DDP back. They also like to use that as one of the primary discounting mechanisms to bring crowds in to the resorts. The other wildcard is all of the buffets. They tend to be extremely popular, especially for people on the dining plan, but right now they aren’t doing buffets. Can those restaurants be repurposed to serve family style or regular menu food? It’s starting already. I think Disney would like to have DDP back along with crowds but it’s all a matter of when that can be done safely and then if the crowds return.
The “15 minute” thing is nonsense. You can pass Covid in 3 seconds. It’s just that the longer you’re in sustained contact with an infected individual, the more chances for the virus to pass on. (In other words, if there is a 2% chance with each close-contact breath... most people won’t get infected in their first breath, but if you share 200 breaths.. you would get infected)
On ride capacity has been increased with plexiglass. Bringing some socially distanced entertainment back will allow further slight increase in capacity.
But ultimately, socially distanced dining, queues, transportation ... I have trouble imagining going beyond 50-60% capacity before late fall/winter.
I do continue to expect to see baby steps of normalization. Slight increases in capacity, maybe some night time entertainment. But nothing big until late fall.
and remember a big element: if Covid disappeared overnight, it would take Disney 6-12 weeks to staff up for full capacity. They normally rely on the college program for a lot of their staffing — that’s dormant. Epcot relies on their International program, currently dormant.
Most of their entertainment staff was laid off. Many will have taken new jobs and do t return.
So imagine they want to bring back Beauty and the Beast at DHS — maybe 35% of the prior cast doesn’t return. So they need to interview and hire a partially new cast.. then they need to rehearse. Total process would take a couple months.
The fact they already announced FOTLK for this summer — shows you how little is coming back soon. Because anything they wanted to bring back for Spring, they would have already begun the process. Anything for summer, requires starting the process now.
It’s not just Covid directly. They have also used Covid as an excuse for budget cutting. They’re in no rush to start investing the money to bring back entertainment staff.
Ultimately, I doubt Disney -could- operate at more than 40-50% without SUBSTANTIALLY increasing staff.
So my suspicion — if, optimistically, Covid starts really dissipating by Summer, then WDW starts staffing up for more normal operations, to really kick in 2-3 months later. Maybe, Thanksgiving 2021 sees semi-normal operations. Though the college program won’t be back until 2022, which could require some limits on capacity into 2022.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
They are doing roller coasters now without plexiglass. I think on ride distancing is the first thing to completely go. Whether or not you think the 15 minute thing is nonsense doesn‘t factor in. It’s part of the guidance and part of the mitigation plan. There are redundant Covid mitigations on rides right now where you have less than 15 mins of exposure, masks are worn by all parties and there is distancing. If you take away the distancing you still have masks and short term exposure. If community spread drops it’s conceivable they decide they can remove 1 of the 3 mitigating items and still be safe. For roller coasters today they have decided it’s already safe. I haven’t seen a firm explanation why, but most coasters last only a few minutes so that helps.
On staffing and ramping up I’m sure Disney is planning for that. They already announced the tentative opening of several closed resorts in May/June/July. You don’t plan to put thousands of hotel rooms back in service without assuming some level of additional crowds. They also don’t have to go from zero to full 2019 staffing levels overnight. Many of the furloughed or laid off cast members are still around waiting to return and in addition many of the CMs working now had their hours cut with little chance at OT. That can be adjusted quickly. The increase in capacity and increase in guest demand will be gradual, not overnight. I don’t think staffing will delay them 2-3 months.
The college program could be restarted in the summer or fall if they really wanted to but isn’t absolutely necessary to ramp up capacity. If Disney sent out an e-mail tomorrow that they were bringing the college program back starting June 1 it would likely be fully staffed. Not saying they will, but they could if needed. Disney isn’t going to turn away customers in large numbers due to a lack of adequate staffing. They will ramp up as demand increases and demand is unlikely to get to pre-Covid levels until sometime in 2022 or 2023. If there’s a surge of pent up demand this summer into the Fall I don’t see Disney waiting until Thanksgiving for a return to more normal operations and passing on months of profits.
Rollercoasters are "safer" because most are outdoors and you're getting tons of fresh air exchange.
Opening a couple more resorts does not suggest any major increase in attendance, on-site guests make up the minority of attendance, especially deluxe hotels. If they were really anticipating anything close to 75%+ capacity, then they would be opening all of their hotels (they would place the limits on off-site guests who are less profitable). The fact that they keep pushing back hotel opening dates, and they still have a ton of closed hotels by July, is a strong indication that capacity will still be severely limited over the summer. If they were thinking 100% capacity by September, then they would already be announcing all hotels opening over the course of the summer.
College program will not be re-started until at least next year or VERY late this year. For the simple reason that it brings young people from all over the country. Thus, even if the numbers are low in much of the country in August, you can't risk bringing young people from hot spots. I suspect they will require proof of vaccination for enrollment in the college program, but you won't have huge numbers of young people effectively vaccinated (2 months after first shot, for full vaccination effect) until August/September optimistically, November/December more pessimistically.
Of course, a big issue will be how quickly variant boosters can get approved, manufactured and distributed. Which could slow us down well into winter/spring 2022, if they don't move with appropriate haste.
Some staffing can be brought up quickly... cashiers, for example. But most of the more specialized staffing, like entertainment, will require months, not days.
Use FOTLK as a guideline: They had to announce it NOW, in order to have it ready for Summer -- So they are anticipating it taking 4-5 months.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Again, nobody expects 100% capacity will be available or needed by September. The reopening will be gradual and will continue through the Spring and Summer months depending on cases and vaccine rollout. Even if they removed all Covid restrictions June 1 that doesn’t mean 100% return to normal crowds this summer anyway. We are at 35% park capacity now and most days aren’t hitting that. There’s a lot of room between that and fully open. They are reopening almost 4,000 hotel rooms between now and early summer so while not everything that’s still a pretty large number of rooms.
I don’t think it takes 4-5 months to reopen a show. It is taking a while with that particular show due to changes needed to keep performers safe. If the performers are all vaccinated by end of June or sooner then no need to modify some other things for the summer. The unions have been very active with Disney ensuring their members are kept safe. A lot of concerns go away once the CMs are vaccinated. I’m sure with a little pressure on the FL gov‘t the mouse can secure vaccine for all its CMs as part of the essential worker group who will be up soon. There’s no reason every Disney CM isn’t vaccinated by June at the latest and likely much sooner. Then issues with show performers distancing during performances and rehearsals goes away.