Disney’s Mufasa - the lion king

[Moka]

Since it has gone viral on places like TikTok, I know I’ve seen a lot of people going for repeat viewings. Like, people are literally gushing over this movie and the soundtrack over there, with millions and millions of likes. Polar opposite of a place like Twitter.

I’ve gone a few times myself just because one of my friends is LMM obsessed and she wanted to see it a few more times. And I myself, having The Lion King as my favorite Disney franchise, didn’t have a problem with it. The audience seemed to have really enjoyed it each time I went, got applause each time at the end. Also, the theater was busier with each showing. Definitely a backloaded box office run. People aren’t going to rush to see a new Lion King film, but they’ll sure see it eventually.

Many trackers are saying $700M+ is not out of the question if the legs hold. This upcoming week as kids head back to school will be the real test. But as mentioned, there’s nothing in January. It should be fine.

 

[BrianLo]

I also really don’t think it’s a stretch to expect over 600+. Its fulfilled the leggy musical/family movie holiday slot this year. Profitability is technically 500M.

 

[Moka]

Mufasa also takes the week and weekend.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Mufasa also takes the week and weekend.

Getting there.
Lets assume they did not go over budget and it cost them 200M to make it, including post production.
Just a pure guess that it cost 100M to market the film.
Lets assume Disney gets half of the box office.
In order to break even at the box office only, they need to make 600M at the box office.

125M to go.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

Getting there.
Lets assume they did not go over budget and it cost them 200M to make it, including post production.
Just a pure guess that it cost 100M to market the film.
Lets assume Disney gets half of the box office.
In order to break even at the box office only, they need to make 600M at the box office.

125M to go.

It’s likely looking to settle around or under 700M. A modest profit but nothing satisfying.

 

[Disney Analyst]

It’s likely looking to settle around or under 700M. A modest profit but nothing satisfying.

Much better than the flop many of us thought it may end up being.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It’s likely looking to settle around or under 700M. A modest profit but nothing satisfying.

If Mufasa makes 700M at box office, that's perfectly fine to me.

I do not have an expectation that every Disney should be 1B+ box office smash, but from a business standpoint I hope they at a minimum break even at box office.

Therefore, at 700M Mufasa will make money at the box office and all other income from the movie is gravy.

 

[Disney Analyst]

If Mufasa makes 700M at box office, that's perfectly fine to me.

I do not have an expectation that every Disney should be 1B+ box office smash, but from a business standpoint I hope they at a minimum break even at box office.

Therefore, at 700M Mufasa will make money at the box office and all other income from the movie is gravy.

Given how few billion dollar movies there are each year now, the goal needs to be smaller budgets, make a profit. Not big budgets, hope to be one of the few to get over a billion.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Given how few billion dollar movies there are each year now, the goal needs to be smaller budgets, make a profit. Not big budgets, hope to be one of the few to get over a billion.

Would you dare say... a *modest* profit?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Given how few billion dollar movies there are each year now, the goal needs to be smaller budgets, make a profit. Not big budgets, hope to be one of the few to get over a billion.

Totally agree.
Godzilla minus one was had a 15M budget and made 105M at box office.

 

[Disney Irish]

Getting there.
Lets assume they did not go over budget and it cost them 200M to make it, including post production.
Just a pure guess that it cost 100M to market the film.
Lets assume Disney gets half of the box office.
In order to break even at the box office only, they need to make 600M at the box office.

125M to go.

Using the standard 2.5x budget formula break-even is actually $500M if it’s a $200M budget.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Using the standard 2.5x budget formula break-even is actually $500M if it’s a $200M budget.

True. My estimate is, 2 times the budget plus (400M) plus 2 times the marketing budget (a guess of 100M) = 200M for a total of 600M for break even.

We are all guessing. Fact is we do not know if they went over budget on the film and we have no idea what they spent on marketing.

 

[erasure fan1]

Using the standard 2.5x budget formula break-even is actually $500M if it’s a $200M budget.

From what I can see, the advertising push was pretty heavy for this film. I'd be very surprised if it was only 50mil. I'd guess it needs about $575mil total at a minimum. But who knows.

 

[Disney Irish]

True. My estimate is, 2 times the budget plus (400M) plus 2 times the marketing budget (a guess of 100M) = 200M for a total of 600M for break even.

We are all guessing. Fact is we do not know if they went over budget on the film and we have no idea what they spent on marketing.

Except your estimate is 3x budget, which is essentially doubling the marketing budget which as you admit is a guess anyways.

This is why you use 2.5x budget as that accounts for an average spend on marketing, that way you don't have to guess. It has been the standard in the industry for a long time now. I don't know why this forum tries to change it just to make Disney look worse than they really are, they don't need any help from you, they can do that all on their own.

 

[Disney Irish]

From what I can see, the advertising push was pretty heavy for this film. I'd be very surprised if it was only 50mil. I'd guess it needs about $575mil total at a minimum. But who knows.

And that may be, but its still a guess. Using 2.5x budget is a equalizer that can be used for all films no matter the studio so you don't have to guess. Why guess at a higher marketing spend unless you're just trying to make Disney look worse than they actually are.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Much better than the flop many of us thought it may end up being.

Only here is there such a thing as “sliding scale of success”

It’s a break even…not a profit maker. No harm…no success

That’s it.

The Walt Disney company needs not your pity…they don’t care how big of a loyalist you are.

Time to move on (until the next moving goalpost)

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s a break even…not a profit maker. No harm…no success

Even if that is what happens, that is still better than many including myself thought would happen with this movie.

 

[erasure fan1]

And that may be, but its still a guess. Using 2.5x budget is a equalizer that can be used for all films no matter the studio so you don't have to guess. Why guess at a higher marketing spend unless you're just trying to make Disney look worse than they actually are.

I'd say the same for any studio with a tent pole film. It's not trying to make Disney look bad. It's a fairly standard estimate of half the budget for marketing. And they've marketed the heck out this film. I've been extremely consistent when it comes to estimates. Budget + half the budget for marketing X2 = break even.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'd say the same for any studio with a tent pole film. It's not trying to make Disney look bad. It's a fairly standard estimate of half the budget for marketing. And they've marketed the heck out this film. I've been extremely consistent when it comes to estimates. Budget + half the budget for marketing X2 = break even.

Except 2.5x budget is the industry standard to take the guess out of the marketing. And Its what we used fairly consistently here for years up until the last year or two when the armchair box office analysts started second guessing it because it didn't make Disney look bad enough for them.

Even Google AI has it at $500M -

 

[Disstevefan1]

Only here is there such a thing as “sliding scale of success”

It’s a break even…not a profit maker. No harm…no success

That’s it.

The Walt Disney company needs not your pity…they don’t care how big of a loyalist you are.

Time to move on (until the next moving goalpost)

Allow me to put on my Disney rationalization hat. Its made of tinfoil complete with mickey ears.

Lets say Disney treats their movies like very expensive, very long commercials. They use their commercials to promote their media empire and after folks see these very long commercials Disney is top of mind and maybe they will buy some Disney merch, some Disney media, maybe plan a Disney vacation, maybe sign up for Disney+

If Disney can break even or make a little on these very long commercials, more the better.