If so, resale definitely sounds like the way to go, or, possibly buying one of the older contracts. Problem with those is, you can only buy what's available, which may not suit our yearly needs.
On this point, I'll add that you could do a combination of direct and resale purchases. Let's say you find a resale for 350 points which suits your needs. Once that has closed you could either keep an eye open for a second contract for roughly 81 points or just buy the 81 direct from DVC. As long as you buy the same Home Resort and Use Year, owning multiple contracts is no different than a single contract.
As for the rest of the post, for the most part I agree with the numbers. When DVC speaks of break-even timeframes they are surely going to mention the comparison which is most favorable to them and that's the rack rate. Disney doesn't like rentals. Rentals take money out of their pockets by undercutting the established rates. But if you're comfortable renting, your numbers are largely sound.
Just a few things I would add:
1. I believe DVC's current promo is that for every 100 points you buy, you get 10 points "free." You still have to pay dues on the points and they are deeded points which you own for the duration. But in your case you could pay the $135 price on 400 points and walk away with 440.
2. When it comes to renting vs. owning, you may want to give some consideration to member perks which you may not be able to take advantage of as a renter. The most obvious one is the Annual pass discount. At $150 savings per pass, a family of 4 who owns DVC will save $600 with each set of passes purchased. The downside is that there's no guarantee the perk will continue indefinitely but 20 years we could be looking back at $12,000 in unrealized savings.
3. Owning gives you an element of control you'll never have with renting. As an owner, I can go online now and book a spur-of-the-moment trip. I can create wait lists if my preferred resort is not available. I can punch in different dates, resorts and rooms to see exactly what is available. I have complete control of the reservation. I don't have to worry about working through someone else to add view requests, dining plans, Magical Express bookings or other features to my reservation. I don't have to worry about my trip being impacted by the actions of a third party (even if inadvertent.)
(Last year there was an ongoing drama in DVC circles over a previously reliable renter who filed for bankruptcy and had his points foreclosed. The situation left dozens of non-members--who had paid to rent from him--uncertain as to the status of their trips.)
4. Resale prices will change the numbers dramatically.
5. Regarding the comments about additional restrictions being applied to resale owners, unfortunately that is a possibility. The current restriction is no non-DVC bookings by resale owners. Those non-DVC bookings should be categorized more as "perks" rather than "contractual rights." And since they are perks, Disney can adjust at their own whim.
The only real guarantee with DVC is that you'll get the accommodations commensurate to the number of points owned.
6. Most (all?) buyers realize that there is some period over which they will be paying more for DVC than for other options. But what they look forward to is the point when costs go down dramatically. In your case that may not come until year 24. But if you decide not to buy, just hope you aren't kicking yourself in years 24-45.
7. The DVC contract IS an asset which can be sold at a future date if no longer needed. If you should get to year 15 and decide the points are no longer needed, the current resale marketplace suggests you'll get a five-figure return on the contract.
Here is my recommendation: Rework the numbers with most of the points purchased resale. And don't just look at the break-even point; run the numbers out for the full 45 years and see what DVC could potentially save you. And do it with the realization that you could still sell the contract at any time if necessary.
You've already said what buying direct will cost over 10 years or so. What will a resale purchase cost over 45 years and how does that compare to the cost of renting over the same period?
