Did another DVC meeting

jlevis

Well-Known Member
It really depends on the time of year and room type. At the low end, a Value Studio (basically a converted AKL room) for January, September, or the first 2 weeks of December costs 69 points per week. At the high end, a 3-bedroom Grand Villa for Easter or Christmas costs 918 points per week.

That is what I figured and it is pretty much the way points work at Marriott. We're also owners of two legacy weeks (2 bedroom units) and they automatically bank points every year so our bank grows quickly.
 

captainkidd

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I just ran some numbers assuming an 11-night stay in a Standard View 1-Bedroom Villa at BWV, 7 weekday nights and 4 weekend nights during the early summer (June or first half of July). Direct from Disney cost in 2012 is $565/night plus 12.5% tax. I assume you can rent the equivalent number of points (350) for $10/point in 2012. Disney sometimes offers discounts on villas. I assume a 30% discount. I assume a 2012 BWV DVC resale purchase at $65/point (this is the high end). Most importantly, I assume you do not finance the purchase.

The results:
- DVC is less expensive than renting points after 14 years
- DVC is less expensive than renting from Disney after 5 years
- DVC is less expensive than renting from Disney with 30% discount after 8 years

This assumes that you hold onto your DVC until 2042. Alternatively, If you decide to sell your DVC in 2020 (for example) and if it's selling for $30/point at that time, purchasing a DVC would have been less expensive in all 3 scenarios.

Have you factored in the cost of dues?
 

dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
I just ran some numbers assuming an 11-night stay in a Standard View 1-Bedroom Villa at BWV, 7 weekday nights and 4 weekend nights during the early summer (June or first half of July). Direct from Disney cost in 2012 is $565/night plus 12.5% tax. I assume you can rent the equivalent number of points (350) for $10/point in 2012. Disney sometimes offers discounts on villas. I assume a 30% discount. I assume a 2012 BWV DVC resale purchase at $65/point (this is the high end). Most importantly, I assume you do not finance the purchase.

The results:
- DVC is less expensive than renting points after 14 years
- DVC is less expensive than renting from Disney after 5 years
- DVC is less expensive than renting from Disney with 30% discount after 8 years

This assumes that you hold onto your DVC until 2042. Alternatively, If you decide to sell your DVC in 2020 (for example) and if it's selling for $30/point at that time, purchasing a DVC would have been less expensive in all 3 scenarios.

I still feel that the cash prices are artificially inflated. Much the same way the food prices have crept up to help justify the DDP, the cash prices on villas seem to be inflated to help people justify the DVC costs. Running the numbers against the price of the room you would normally have stayed in if you didn't do DVC. POFQ rack rate has a much different breakeven point than DVC rack rate if you would normally have stayed moderate vs 1 bdrm.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Running the numbers against the price of the room you would normally have stayed in if you didn't do DVC. POFQ rack rate has a much different breakeven point than DVC rack rate if you would normally have stayed moderate vs 1 bdrm.

Running the numbers against anything but a Deluxe will never work in DVC's favor. A #1 assumption of DVC is you want the deluxe property. That is right there with 'you vacation at WDW and plan on continuing that as long as you can see down the road..'
 

Funfy

Active Member
It is obviously not a good decision for your family. If you have spent all of these years justifying why is not a good deal for you, then please just put a stake in the ground and say, "That's it. I am done." Every year that you have decided not to do it makes the numbers look worse as time goes by.

I think if you tried to do the deal now, you would not be able to sleep and it would make you miserable. My husband and I know we will be going to Disney for a long time. Our kids are 21 and 18. We can't beat them off with sticks. Once we finally suceed with just the two of us getting to go-I am sure there will be grandchildren that will be attending not long after.

DVC is not a decision to be made when you can't think of any good reason to pull the trigger. I will say this though-everythng in life is not black and white, numbers that add up. There are intangibles for every family that buys into DVC-some they do not even realize and some that cannot have a price tag put on them. So, if it has to be strictly a numbers game for you, it will never add up and I would say walk away and don't look back. The savings you might have realized will probably never be worth it to you or your family.
 

jim1051

Active Member
You could buy 1/3 of the amount of points, bank one year, borrow from the next, and still get trip every 3 years. Break even is much less $$$. Also will you always need so many points in 5, 10 20 years ?
 

captainkidd

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It is obviously not a good decision for your family. If you have spent all of these years justifying why is not a good deal for you, then please just put a stake in the ground and say, "That's it. I am done." Every year that you have decided not to do it makes the numbers look worse as time goes by.

I think if you tried to do the deal now, you would not be able to sleep and it would make you miserable. My husband and I know we will be going to Disney for a long time. Our kids are 21 and 18. We can't beat them off with sticks. Once we finally suceed with just the two of us getting to go-I am sure there will be grandchildren that will be attending not long after.

DVC is not a decision to be made when you can't think of any good reason to pull the trigger. I will say this though-everythng in life is not black and white, numbers that add up. There are intangibles for every family that buys into DVC-some they do not even realize and some that cannot have a price tag put on them. So, if it has to be strictly a numbers game for you, it will never add up and I would say walk away and don't look back. The savings you might have realized will probably never be worth it to you or your family.

I know it's not meant to come off this way (or maybe it is), but posts like this are the EXACT reason I'm so torn about DVC. People say things like this as if they're bigger Disney fans than I am, which to me doesn't even seem possible. So then I figure, well, I must be doing something wrong with the numbers, because I certainly plan on going to Disney for as long as I can tell.
 

captainkidd

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
You could buy 1/3 of the amount of points, bank one year, borrow from the next, and still get trip every 3 years. Break even is much less $$$. Also will you always need so many points in 5, 10 20 years ?

That's an excellent point. Right now, yes, we need all those pints, and most likely will for the next 10 years or so. After that, most likely, we will not need that many points, and I've yet to come across any information saying that you can sell any amount of your points off at any time. It's either all or nothing. Is that correct?
 

flynnibus

Premium Member

lebeau

Well-Known Member
I skimmed a lot of this. I didn't see where anyone mentioned "Time Value of Money". This is an absolutely critical concept that most people miss when they do their DVC calcs. Basically, a dollar spent now is worth more than a dollar spent in the future. So, yes, DVC may cause you to spend fewer dollars in the long run. But when you factor in the time value of money, you could still come up on the losing end.

Personally, I would NEVER finance DVC. If that's part of the deal, it is very unlikely to work out in your favor.

Also, don't underestimate the flexibility that paying out of pocket gives you. I find DVC too restrictive.
 

Funfy

Active Member
I know it's not meant to come off this way (or maybe it is), but posts like this are the EXACT reason I'm so torn about DVC. People say things like this as if they're bigger Disney fans than I am, which to me doesn't even seem possible. So then I figure, well, I must be doing something wrong with the numbers, because I certainly plan on going to Disney for as long as I can tell.

It is not a matter of whether you are a Disney fan or not--you are not a fan of DVC at the rates they want to charge. And since the people you don't want to insult per your previous post, are fans and will put down the money, then they are bigger DVC fans. The intangible things I referred to have nothing to do with being a Disney fan. Some of my reasons are on a more personal level that literally go back to my childhood-not Disney related-and that doesn't have a price on it. But, of course, I am one of those people that would pay for the DDP even if it were more expensive than OOP because it is convenient for me and my family.

You have run the numbers, they don't work for you, your family or your ability to justify the purchase. Just keep renting points, loving Disney and enjoying the space without the hassle. Sort of like the trend that most people under 25 are not interested in purchasing homes-they are just renting them. Each has it's advantages and disadvantages. For you, I think the points rental is the best solution. You get the to buy the farmer's milk for sale next door without having to feed the cow-sorry raised on the farm. The end result is the same, but without the upkeep. And who knows, you might not like milk in a few years.

Now, stop torturing the DVC sales people! LOL;)
 

jlevis

Well-Known Member
You could buy 1/3 of the amount of points, bank one year, borrow from the next, and still get trip every 3 years. Break even is much less $$$. Also will you always need so many points in 5, 10 20 years ?

That is how we're doing it to get a big trip with our points. We are banking points from one of our weeks and banking the points we get at the start of the year. If you are willing to be patient you can do a lot with fewer points.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Yes, because people can't change their mind.

My opinion on Disney changes constantly. I know you like trying to make people look bad, so if you want to use my flip-flopping as part of your daily routine, go for it. I don't deny it. I'm very indecisive.:)

It's not just 'changing your mind' - you are swinging polar opposites. You pretty much just vindicated all of your critics in that thread even tho you tried as hard as possible to deny it.
 

captainkidd

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It's not just 'changing your mind' - you are swinging polar opposites. You pretty much just vindicated all of your critics in that thread even tho you tried as hard as possible to deny it.

The day I wrote that post I was ticked off with Disney and typed before I thought. I do it a lot.

I don't care. Why do you?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Let's try this again.... PERSONAL SUSPICION. If I had data other than my opinion, it would have read "Data". I will continue to offer opinions - they will always be labled as such, to differentiate them from fact. Opinions are not the least BIT misleading.

Fair enough. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and I am not trying to change yours. The only reason for my post is to help others who are trying to make an informed decision. Before I bought in to DVC I came to a few online discussion forums to research the resale process and see what people's opinions were. I am sure there are others who also do this. If someone who is completely new to the process read your original post they could assume that you were speaking from experience that the resale market is baloney. I can't speak for anyone else, but I bought my DVC through the resale market and it passed ROFR. This is a fact, not my opinion. I know others who post on here have also bought resale (per their posts - not first hand knowledge). My opinion is that people should do what they want. If you are happy buying direct from Disney, do it. If you want to buy resale do that. I had a positive experience buying resale and the process was very easy and pain free (other than writing the check!!!).
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I'm glad we got that out of the way - as I initially suspected, SOMEONE that bought on the resale market was going to have a snit over my suggestion that one should actually call WDW - not because they may, or may not, have a better deal - simply because proper research demands that all options get investigated.

If you are happy, then I am happy. But I would like to know why you think it's "helping others" to have them NOT investigate both the actual resale market, AND contact Disney? That's all I've ever said - I don't work for Disney, not do I work for a Reseller. You know others that have purchased resale, and been sucessful - and I suspect that there are quite a few. GoofGoof - how many? What is the percentage of sucessful vs non succesful sales on the resale market in 2012? And if all these were successful, then how did I manage to buy points from Disney? They should not have existed. An actual, measurable Percentage of success is a number - DATA that can be used by others. So what's the number? Is it your number, or is it on the internet- so it must be true?

In my case? Please - just leave me alone. I'm not here to have a fight with anyone. I prefer to go to Disney, not argue with a person that has made a decision. If there is one thing I've learned, it's to just plain shut up, and say NOTHING about this process. Saying anything just brings out trouble.

We have a difference of opinion here and I am not trying to make this hostile. You directed several questions to me then asked me to leave you alone. If you are interested in my response read below, if you just want me to leave you alone then stop reading now and post nothing and I will not post again on this subject either.

I actually said in all of my posts that I did not have a problem or snit with you or anyone else buying through Disney. I will repeat again, It is a valid option. I did look at buying direct through Disney and resale before buying. I actually did do a lot of research. You are suggesting that the resale market is baloney. You are telling people that buying direct is the only option since the resale market is balony. My only point of posting in the first place was to point out that it is not. In this very limited sample size so far 2 people have posted that they bought resale and passed ROFR. I am sure there are others too - feel free to back me up here. So far nobody has said they tried to buy and didn't pass ROFR. I am not saying Disney never buys through ROFR but they do not publish stats on ROFR buys so we will never know the true numbers. I do know that if someone buys direct from Disney and finances through Disney and fails to make payments (goes into default on the loan) they will take the points back and make them available for direct sale through Disney. They will also exercise the ROFR if someone makes a lowball offer and a seller accepts. If you work with a reputable broker they can give you a good idea of what is getting through ROFR and what is not. They deal in the market every day so they have a good knowledge of what's passing. I think someone else posted this earlier, but Disney would be happy to not have to buy back points. They build a resort, sell the points and recover the capital spent plus a profit. The dues cover overhead and deferred maintenance. If they buy points back then they have to pay out cash that they won't get back until they resell. In addition they are not getting paid dues on those points. I am not saying they never buy back through ROFR, but it works better for them if they don't have to.

Sorry to the original poster for hijacking your thread a little, but I guess this is kinda on topic.
 

dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
You want a smaller membership. (In recent years, Disney has put in place a 160-point minimum for a first time buyer. Older contracts are available for smaller amounts.)

You can usually still get them to offer a 100 point buy in. A simple hemming and hawing over the price, saying we don't need that many points etc, and your guide will often excuse themselves, and come back with the ability to get you in the door at 100 points.
 

lebeau

Well-Known Member
You can usually still get them to offer a 100 point buy in. A simple hemming and hawing over the price, saying we don't need that many points etc, and your guide will often excuse themselves, and come back with the ability to get you in the door at 100 points.

I just asked. They didn't sound happy, but they said "yes". Of course, I didn't end up buying anyway. But I think it's pretty easy to get them to agree to 100 points these days.
 

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