News Destination D23 2023

[aladdin2007]

Ah, but what if it's of a Garbage Can! HMMMMM? Those Spirit Jerseys are pure garbage in my book!

I agree!!!

 

[Cliff]

I hear you. I think Universal can definitely narrow the gap even more than they already have, but I don’t believe they can or will ever overtake Disney. Just my opinion, of course.

Disney has created a template. They have shown the world how they do it. They have no "secrets" left anymore. The only thing Universal needs to do is clone that template, hire ex-Imagineers and spend the money to execute it.

It seems to me that Universal now has the people AND the money now to do it. All they need is the willpower....and it seems to me they do now.

I also think that for the first time ever in their history....they smell blood in the water.

 

[Bocabear]

The D23 without any new Parks presentations sounds terrible... And I think everyone is getting tired of the "blue sky" announcements that will never happen or the definitely happening announcements that are then quietly cancelled... Most of us Disney fans could teach the seminars on Disney secrets, hidden Mickeys, What makes Disney Parks Special... these are reasons we are fans...But what else? Will this be a weekend cheerleading event with absolutely no substance? That is what it seems....

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Disney has created a template. They have shown the world how they do it. They have no "secrets" left anymore. The only thing Universal needs to do is clone that template, hire ex-Imagineers and spend the money to execute it.

It seems to me that Universal now has the people AND the money now to do it. All they need is the willpower....and it seems to me they do now.

I also think that for the first time ever in their history....they smell blood in the water.

I think the biggest hurdle for Uni is still IP, they don’t have the same history as Disney to give people the warm fuzzies from their childhood, at least not for someone my age, that may be different for younger generations.

Disney relies on older properties, Uni relies on newer properties, it’ll be interesting to see how that affects future generations nostalgic feeling of the parks.

 

[JusticeDisney]

Disney has created a template. They have shown the world how they do it. They have no "secrets" left anymore. The only thing Universal needs to do is clone that template, hire ex-Imagineers and spend the money to execute it.

It seems to me that Universal now has the people AND the money now to do it. All they need is the willpower....and it seems to me they do now.

I also think that for the first time ever in their history....they smell blood in the water.

You’re forgetting a very critical component. Disney has a brand and nostalgia that Universal simply will never have.

Also, blood in the water? That’s not how I would describe a situation where Disney still dominates Uni in overall attendance. Then again, as I said earlier, just my opinion and I could certainly be wrong.

 

[Cliff]

You’re forgetting a very critical component. Disney has a brand and nostalgia that Universal simply will never have.

Also, blood in the water? That’s not how I would describe a situation where Disney still dominates Uni in overall attendance. Then again, as I said earlier, just my opinion and I could certainly be wrong.

Yes,...at the moment, Disney is still a solid #1. But...nobody knows what 5-10 years looks like. Universal is about to unleash a MAJOR attraction that is huge in scale. The press and social buzz on this thing will be enormous. It "seems" that Disney will not have anything "new" to match or counter this with. It "seems" that Disney's current financial problems are going to stagnate their parks.....heavily.

Honestly....Disney seems to have thrown ALL it's available rescources into it's failing studios and failing Disney+ streaming model...and tried to use the parks to float everything. The parks business cannot thrive and grow if they are being used pay all the cost that the rest of the company is bleeding.

Meanwhile...Universal capital investment in new attractions is screaming forward in 6th gear like a Ferarri, full throttle in the Autobon! They will likely be taking 18 BILLION (possibly or more) from Disney on the HULU deal! Think of what Universal can do with 18-ish billion "Disney" dollars!!!!

And now....that 18-ish billion becomes "DEBT" for Disney! Can you imagine what just the interest alone will cost Disney? Not to mention ALL the other billions in EXISTING debt they have to service?

Yeah....dont count on even $1 getting put into the parks in 3-5 years. Heck....in 5 years? "maybe" Universal DOES overtake WDW. It's at the very least, "plausable".

If the public perception becomes that WDW is the "same old place you have seen 100 times before" and Universal becomes the "hot, new fresh" destination? Yeah...lets see.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Yes,...at the moment, Disney is still a solid #1. But...nobody knows what 5-10 years looks like. Universal is about to unleash a MAJOR attraction that is huge in scale. The press and social buzz on this thing will be enormous. It "seems" that Disney will not have anything "new" to match or counter this with. It "seems" that Disney's current financial problems are going to stagnate their parks.....heavily.

Honestly....Disney seems to have thrown ALL it's available rescources into it's failing studios and failing Disney+ streaming model...and tried to use the parks to float everything. The parks business cannot thrive and grow if they are being used pay all the cost that the rest of the company is bleeding.

Meanwhile...Universal captitol investment in new attractions is screaming forward in 6th gear like a Ferarri, full throttle in the Autobon! They will likely be taking 18 BILLION (possibly or more) from Disney on the HULU deal! Think of what Universal can do with 18-ish billion dollars!

And now....that 18-ish billion becomes "DEBT" for Disney! Can you imagine what just the interest alone will cost Disney. Not to mention ALL the other billions in debt they have to service?

Yeah....dont count on even $1 getting put into the parks in 3-5 years. Heck....in 5 years? "maybe" Universal DOES overtake WDW. It's at the very least, "plausable".

If the public perception becomes that WDW is the "same old place you have seen 100 times before" and Universal becomes the "hot, new fresh" destination? Yeah...lets see.

The one question I always have is whether Universal can physically handle 20 million guests a year like MK or DL?

The parks are already busy with 11 million guests a year, I think they’d be unbearable if they tried to pack in 9 million more.

15 million seems possible, 20 million sounds miserable.

 

[JusticeDisney]

Yes,...at the moment, Disney is still a solid #1. But...nobody knows what 5-10 years looks like. Universal is about to unleash a MAJOR attraction that is huge in scale. The press and social buzz on this thing will be enormous. It "seems" that Disney will not have anything "new" to match or counter this with. It "seems" that Disney's current financial problems are going to stagnate their parks.....heavily.

Honestly....Disney seems to have thrown ALL it's available rescources into it's failing studios and failing Disney+ streaming model...and tried to use the parks to float everything. The parks business cannot thrive and grow if they are being used pay all the cost that the rest of the company is bleeding.

Meanwhile...Universal capital investment in new attractions is screaming forward in 6th gear like a Ferarri, full throttle in the Autobon! They will likely be taking 18 BILLION (possibly or more) from Disney on the HULU deal! Think of what Universal can do with 18-ish billion "Disney" dollars!!!!

And now....that 18-ish billion becomes "DEBT" for Disney! Can you imagine what just the interest alone will cost Disney? Not to mention ALL the other billions in EXISTING debt they have to service?

Yeah....dont count on even $1 getting put into the parks in 3-5 years. Heck....in 5 years? "maybe" Universal DOES overtake WDW. It's at the very least, "plausable".

If the public perception becomes that WDW is the "same old place you have seen 100 times before" and Universal becomes the "hot, new fresh" destination? Yeah...lets see.

I certainly respect your right to have your opinion, but there is a lot that you just stated, as if it were fact, and it’s not. Anyway, I stand by my position that universal will simply never ever catch Disney as the true king.

 

[Cmdr_Crimson]

I think the biggest hurdle for Uni is still IP, they don’t have the same history as Disney to give people the warm fuzzies from their childhood, at least not for someone my age, that may be different for younger generations.

Disney relies on older properties, Uni relies on newer properties, it’ll be interesting to see how that affects future generations nostalgic feeling of the parks.

The problem is they are going to other studios for the use of their IP...

Transformers - Mattel, Paramount/,Viacom
Simpsons & Marvel - Disney
Toon Lagoon characters - Jay Ward, King Features, & Hearst printing
Dr Seuss - Seuss enterprises
Beetlejuice, Scooby and Harry Potter - Warner Bros.
SpongeBob & Dora - Viacom/Nickelodeon
Men In Black - Sony Pictures..

Now with the rights to DreamWorks, Illuminations they seem to be pushing more of these IP's and not caring too much about Woody Woodpecker lately.

 

[Cliff]

I think that many people have this idea about the Disney brand:

"Disney's customers are LOYAL and loving. Their support is unwavering and rock soild. Their dedication to the Disney brand runs deep and is passed down through each generation. Disney customers will ALWAYS be there to support the company"

However, I believe that Disney customer "loyalty" is NOT really a thing. I believe the market is fickle and blows with the wind.

I think that the market is MUCH more about...."what have you done for me lately". Customers are NOT as loyal as some think and they WILL shift and move to "other" entertainment avenues at the drop of a hat!

That's why Disney, Marvel and Lucasfilm movie products are now ALL doing so horribly lately. There is literally near zero fan "lotalty" to them.

 

[Dranth]

The problem is they are going to other studios for the use of their IP...

Transformers - Mattel, Paramount/,Viacom
Simpsons & Marvel - Disney
Toon Lagoon characters - Jay Ward, King Features, & Hearst printing
Dr Seuss - Seuss enterprises
Beetlejuice, Scooby and Harry Potter - Warner Bros.
SpongeBob & Dora - Viacom/Nickelodeon
Men In Black - Sony Pictures..

Now with the rights to DreamWorks, Illuminations they seem to be pushing more of these IP's and not caring too much about Woody Woodpecker lately.

They just don't have a ton to work with that has the cultural awareness and history that Disney does. They are changing that slowly but they have a long way to go and a lot of that is because they don't use their own IP much. For example, as of today:

- At USF they have 13 attractions listed. One original, five they own the IP (one more coming later this year) and seven they rent the IP.
- At IoA they have 19 attractions listed. Zero originals, three they own the IP and 16 they rent.
- At EU we don't entirely know yet as they have changed a few things but, we know they will still have some IP owned by other companies in Harry Potter and the Nintendo area. However, it looks like they are leaning into their own IP more which I think is a smart move.

I have no love for the old Universal monster movies but it is the area I am looking forward to the most and I wish they did more with this type of stuff. Take your old IP and reintroduce it to a modern audience. Make it a fun, well themed ride in a fun, well themed area and who knows, maybe you revive a few of these franchises as people gain interest/awareness from the rides.

 

[prberk]

This one was billed as a celebration of the 100th anniversary. The presentations should be mostly about the history, and first-class archives exhibits; but it looks like they have completely punted on that.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Let's be real about new projects in the next 3-5 years...

Disney studios have been reported to have lost 900+ million dollars in the past two years.

...falsely by someone who purposely left out Avatar 2. So only $450M. In the past year. Most of that will be made up in the post-theatrical windows.

Disney + is deep in the red and is bleeding a TON of money. They are spending WAY more then they are making.

D+'s deficit has decreased in the past 2 quarters. If they would only charge what Netflix chareges, they'd be in the black, too, like Netflix.

Disney is legally obligated to finish the HULU buyout in Q1 of 2024. Best case scenerio is they need to come up with $9 Billion...worst case is $27 Billion. Let's say arbitration lands in the middle....let's say $18 Billion.

Folks....Disney will need to scrape up EVERY billion they have...then BORROW the rest. They already got billions in loans to ride out the pandemic and float the company. Now they need another 10 billion in loans to cover the HULU cost! You guys know what the current intrest rates are on a new 10 billion loan today?

Where does this "worst case" number come from?

Hulu's valuation in total is $27B. That's makes Comcast's third worth $9B. So, Disney would buy Comcast out at $9B. There's no scenario in which Disney would spend $27B. Disney currently has $10B cash on hand.

Profits were $1.2B last quarter. And Disney has access to tons of credit. At $40B in debt, taking on another $9B is a drop in the bucket.

Comcast's current debt is $100B.

And now Parks are slumping?...the ONE area that was supposed to be "bulletproof" for Disney?

Park profit has risen every quarter since 2020 breaking records. And that's with less guests. They're squeezing yield. One or two quarters with the parks not breaking records is OK. The parks will still make a hefty profit in the hundreds of millions.

Or......Disney could buy HULU with new issued stocks....and make Comcast Universal the largest shareholder of Disney???? Ok...that might work.

Yeah. That's not a things that would ever be a thing.

 

[Cliff]

...falsely by someone who purposely left out Avatar 2. So only $450M. In the past year. Most of that will be made up in the post-theatrical windows.



D+'s deficit has decreased in the past 2 quarters. If they would only charge what Netflix chareges, they'd be in the black, too, like Netflix.




Where does this "worst case" number come from?

Hulu's valuation in total is $27B. That's makes Comcast's third worth $9B. So, Disney would buy Comcast out at $9B. There's no scenario in which Disney would spend $27B. Disney currently has $10B cash on hand.

Profits were $1.2B last quarter. And Disney has access to tons of credit. At $40B in debt, taking on another $9B is a drop in the bucket.

Comcast's current debt is $100B.





Park profit has risen every quarter since 2020 breaking records. And that's with less guests. They're squeezing yield. One or two quarters with the parks not breaking records is OK. The parks will still make a hefty profit in the hundreds of millions.



Yeah. That's not a things that would ever be a thing.

Avatar is a Lightstorm movie. Disney only got the "distrubution" rights. James Cameron will get the money for his movie, not Disney. (Disney only gets a fractional cut for Distribution) Same situation with Spider Man No Way Home. That was a Sony property that Disney only got mere distribution fees on. Yes..."Sony" made all the real bank on it. Indy 5 could literally lose 300+ million for the studio.... by itself!

HULU is going into Arbritration. Comcast wants to INflate the value of HULU. Disney is fighting to DEflate the value of it.

Arbritratuon will determine the "actual" value and Disney will be stuck with 33% of whatever that number is. No....you can bet Disney will be stuck with paying WAY over the low-ball 9 billion

 

[Horizonsfan]

It seems myopic to assume that EU’s success will result in a return to form for Disney, or even stop the drift.

You could argue the excessive IP integration and solo-property lands at Disney are a consequence of Uni’s success with HP back in 00s. A successful third Uni park that’s 95% IP based, once again with no coherent park theme, spells doom to me for any hope of maintaining DAK’s integrity or mitigate the damage to Epcot’s. EU’s success can be used as a final proof point that “that’s what the customer wants”.

The majority of us here know a successful EU shows the customer just wants expanded/new experiences and value for their purchase. I’d love for that to be the lesson Disney takes, but it seems Pollyanna to expect it to be. EU can all too easily just be an enabler for modern Disney’s worst instincts.

We may get a massive dose of investment, but also lose more of the soul of the resort.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

You kind of have to admire the grapefruits it takes to stand on stage in front of the most loyal Disney fans around and say, "Let me tell you why you love us so much." And to announce beforehand that that's what the presentation will be and know that people will still fork over cash for the chance.to be in the room while you do it? They don't make skinny jeans that can hold those bad boys.

 

[osian]

How about....not trying to outdo each other on IP? How about...not relying on old IP to trigger nostalgia, or gambling on new IP that may or may not be popular or stand the test of time. How about....building attractions that are not tied to a particular date and time and movie franchise that depends of on the fickleness of the general public and current trends? How about..building original attractions that are unique, that others can't compete with and that will appeal to everyone. Because aren't all these issues being caused by IP? Sorry for being so outrageous.

 

[WaltsTreasureChest]

I can’t wait for the Spirit Jersey Ride

 

[MagicHappens1971]

Avatar is a Lightstorm movie. Disney only got the "distrubution" rights. James Cameron will get the money for his movie, not Disney. (Disney only gets a fractional cut for Distribution)

The original Avatar was produced & distributed by 20th Century Fox, and 20th Century (Disney) distributed Avatar. They own the IP.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I can’t wait for the Spirit Jersey Ride