Crowd Control Theories

[NelsonRD]

One would have to be pathologically addicted to theme park vacations to make decisions like this. If Disney could raise prices by 5%, let alone 50% without significantly impacting their attendance they would have done it already.

Purchasing something before the price goes up even more is not a pathological addiction. Granted, the example of a 50% increase is dramatic, but prices have steadily increased, so the point remains the same.

 

[Bairstow]

Purchasing something before the price goes up even more is not a pathological addiction. Granted, the example of a 50% increase is dramatic, but prices have steadily increased, so the point remains the same.

A 50% increase isn't dramatic, it's absurd.

 

[Naplesgolfer]

A 50% increase isn't dramatic, it's absurd.

I would pay it if it cut the crowd by 35-40%.

 

[GeoffR]

Thanks for all the responses. I've read all of them, and I have some additional thoughts:

I don't believe price hikes will do anything. I think the credit card argument is pretty solid on that point. I think the argument for "letting the parks rot" except for MK is an interesting idea.

Personally, I don't 100% agree with that, but I think every park outside of MK needs work.

Pandora (though I'm not a fan of the franchise) brought in the AK crowds, but it's not a large area, but their expansion of Asia back in '99 did bring in some places to disperse the body of people, and adding Everest years later helped immensely.

HS never quite figured out what it was, and the overall design of it, outside Sunset BLVD, is narrow, winding, and confusing; a lot of back alleys and dead ends. Point being, crowd control in HS has always been tough because of the design. SWGE will help, TS Land will help, but the design, as a whole, is not crowd friendly.

EPCOT, outside of Food and Wine, has great crowd control, because of its openness and size, but it's also the most in need of some changes.

I agree with the hrs argument too. When MK is always open the latest, it will be the most crowded at night obviously.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Increasing prices will not work. Even if it was raised 50%, people will still book out of fear they are beating the next 60% increase.
Lowering prices would help the parks more, as there will be less urgency, as people will put off a trip until the timing may be better for them. My upcoming trip was booked prior to the parking fees implementation, and while the timing will work for us, it is not perfect. There is a threshold of pricing that will affect crowds, but my point is, it will have, and is having, the reverse effect first.

Price increases work on discretionary elastic products because people don't have unlimited money. It would work. Some people would choose to pay, but others could literally not afford it. Inelastic products like gas are less price sensitive because they are commodities with no susbtitutes.

 

[Chef Mickey]

I would pay it if it cut the crowd by 35-40%.

Me too...all day. I'd pay double to cut crowds 50%.

 

[Naplesgolfer]

Me too...all day. I'd pay double to cut crowds 50%.

Double would have a significant impact on crowd size. Give me a 1500 platinum pass and walking room!! LOL!

 

[MisterPenguin]

@ParentsOf4 has a lot of data regarding guest spending and it’s importance to the bottom line. Based on this and the overall push towards enchanching spending levels the strategy TWDC has taken is to push more offerings for the higher end customer at the expense of the regular customer. Desert parties, vip tours, Christmas and Halloween parties, festivals, etc are all targeted and priced for the wealthier and at the same time have replaced offerings and events that had been included with standard admission.

Speaking of which, I point you all to the thread on the 5th Gate possibility. It has the data you crave. To wit:

​

1. MK is full. Go away. Stop adding stuff that increases attendance. Open up more 'space' instead.​

2. The other three parks are not doing their job. They're not near capacity. They have the ability to soak up extra bodies. So, all the new stuff should go in them. All three of them also need to become 'two day parks'.​

3. Capital expenditures right now are at peak compared to revenue. Yes, it's hardly enough to make up for years of no re-investment, but it's hard to imagine them spending even more than they are for the next several years, especially since they're doing major expansions in all the parks globally.​

Start here in that 5th Gate Thread for the stats: https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...theme-park-by-2025.893463/page-4#post-8269130

Other things to consider:

All of WDW has 3 million per year more guests now than 10 years ago. Once a park's capacity has hit the tipping point (MK), then queues suddenly explode as the lines back up with more and more people each hour. People will blame FP, a system for spreading people around... which would mean pushing people away from 'full' rides theoretically alleviating overlong lines... rather than blame an extra 3 million people. Go figure.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Double would have a significant impact on crowd size. Give me a 1500 platinum pass and walking room!! LOL!

Yeah, the annual pass increase wouldn't be a problem and I'd pay the $1500 all day. But they'd have to do a $200+ dollar/day park hopper to really make an impact because so few have annual passes.

 

[CP_alum08]

I think raising prices will work but it needs to be extreme, like $500/day extreme. I don’t think the $200/day mark will do much.

I actually don’t even think a 5th gate is the solution anymore. It might have been if they started 3 or 4 years ago but if they started on one now they might as well just start a 6th too.

My opinion is that the only way to lower crowds is to physically lower the capacity like with the paid events. Instead of the park capacity of MK being 100,000 (or whatever it is) make it half that. But then that creates more demand which creates higher prices and an even more crazy planning process...so no I don’t think there is a solution

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Not that they are ever going to do this - but if they adopt "You can only buy tickets (thus enter the parks) for the valid duration of your stay at a Walt Disney World Resort or participating partner hotel (for which the individuals purchasing said tickets and the partners participating would be viciously gouged)....that would thin the herd.

But then of course a night at the All-Stars would be $750. And a participating Hampton on Palm Pkwy would cost $350 (that's where us locals would stay).

 

[Naplesgolfer]

I think raising prices will work but it needs to be extreme, like $500/day extreme. I don’t think the $200/day mark will do much.

I actually don’t even think a 5th gate is the solution anymore. It might have been if they started 3 or 4 years ago but if they started on one now they might as well just start a 6th too.

My opinion is that the only way to lower crowds is to physically lower the capacity like with the paid events. Instead of the park capacity of MK being 100,000 (or whatever it is) make it half that. But then that creates more demand which creates higher prices and an even more crazy planning process...so no I don’t think there is a solution

I am not so sure $200 a day wouldn’t have a impact. Disney analysts look at this everyday. Do you think if they thought 200 a day would have no impact to attendance or overall park spend we would be at 200 right now?

 

[OneofThree]

Many people have posted elsewhere that raising prices will lead to lower crowds. IMO it won't and IMO here is why. It's very easy to use credit cards for everything and many people use them for vacations as well never thinking of how they will pay them off. In this age of instant gratification charge now worry (if ever) about paying for it later. Disney could easily cap crowds at a much lower level then they currently do but realistically would they- no. They are a business --making money is the name of the game. Crowds are here to stay and I'm afraid they will only get worse unless the economy takes a major down turn. just my 2 cents

Paying CC interest for a vacation? I can't believe there are enough people who would actually do that. Then again. . .

 

[CP_alum08]

I am not so sure $200 a day wouldn’t have a impact. Disney analysts look at this everyday. Do you think if they thought 200 a day would have no impact to attendance or overall park spend we would be at 200 right now?

Making that kind of a jump would have enormous negative publicity.

But all things considered, I think we’ll get to $200/day before you see a significant drop in attendance.

 

[GeoffR]

Speaking of which, I point you all to the thread on the 5th Gate possibility. It has the data you crave. To wit:

​

1. MK is full. Go away. Stop adding stuff that increases attendance. Open up more 'space' instead.​

2. The other three parks are not doing their job. They're not near capacity. They have the ability to soak up extra bodies. So, all the new stuff should go in them. All three of them also need to become 'two day parks'.​

3. Capital expenditures right now are at peak compared to revenue. Yes, it's hardly enough to make up for years of no re-investment, but it's hard to imagine them spending even more than they are for the next several years, especially since they're doing major expansions in all the parks globally.​

Start here in that 5th Gate Thread for the stats: https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads...theme-park-by-2025.893463/page-4#post-8269130

Other things to consider:

All of WDW has 3 million per year more guests now than 10 years ago. Once a park's capacity has hit the tipping point (MK), then queues suddenly explode as the lines back up with more and more people each hour. People will blame FP, a system for spreading people around... which would mean pushing people away from 'full' rides theoretically alleviating overlong lines... rather than blame an extra 3 million people. Go figure.

A lot of good points here. MK is hands down the best park, but it's also very small in comparison to AK and EPCOT. However, I don't a 5th gate is coming anytime soon. It's like building a city, and the infrastructure alone could take half a decade, and if there are no immediate plans now, then that plan is out the window. Dispersing people in new areas has helped though, even in MK. Though Mine Train is always a long line (for a very short, although great, ride), New Fantasyland is always open and not too packed.

Additionally, to some earlier points, I think more 'people-eating' rides are necessary. They need more rides that are longer, no more 2 min stuff, and eat up a lot of people. This way, more people are on the ride at one time, and less clogging up the rest of the park, and on the ride longer. I think of a Spaceship Earth type ride; a lot of people on at once, for longer than 2 min.

 

[GeoffR]

Making that kind of a jump would have enormous negative publicity.

But all things considered, I think we’ll get to $200/day before you see a significant drop in attendance.

Yes, they wouldn't raise to anything too extreme. The negative press already gives them a hard time every year, and a lot of Travel Podcats argue it's not worth the dollar amount now; though I disagree, a lot of people don't. I'm still not sure price would deter anyone though, because to reiterate, the prices are higher now every year, but attendance is growing to coincide with it.

 

[rio]

I'm sure others have said it, but the biggest issue is MK. Everyone gravitates there for 3 reasons:

1) Other parks close earlier than MK
2) Better night activities at MK
3) It's THE park to visit if you're there a short time.

One thing they could do is bolster the offerings and hours at the other 3 parks. They are doing that with the EPCOT revamp and DHS expansion. Avatar helped some. Hours at AK helps some.

More total people come, but Disney has plenty of space and would be a lot better if they distributed the crowds more evenly.

Lastly, they need to increase prices...a lot, particularly at MK. If you want to go to MK, they need a demand based premium or something. I don't love the idea, but people will respond to significantly increased prices. 10% isn't going to move the needle, but 50% would. You would have a lot of upset people, but it's an option.

It's also the standard picture for what is perceived as Disney. Even if all of the other parks became better by all three points you listed, I do not see them ever becoming more crowded than the Magic Kingdom. Someone else mentioned that rising tides lift all boats. If the other parks become more crowded, it just means more people are going to Disney World. The Magic Kingdom's attendance will continue to rise until it hits full capacity barriers in this scenario.

The only truly effective means of crowd control is money. The only way it'll stop is if people decide going to Disney World isn't worth it, aren't able to go to Disney World, or prices just rise so high that going to Disney World really is unaffordable even on credit cards.

 

[Willmark]

The problem as I see it is Disney is trying to have it both ways: packed parks and satisfied customers.

I believe those two things are in counter balance unless there are people who enjoy all the things that grate on ones nerves from ECV scooters to rolling locker sized strollers to screaming toddlers to rude self entitled people.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Paying CC interest for a vacation? I can't believe there are enough people who would actually do that. Then again. . .

Why do you think there are Disney Visa kiosks all over? Disney wants all some of that interest. "Hey want some candy...er....I mean a statement credit?"

 

[Mickey5150]

I'm sure others have said it, but the biggest issue is MK. Everyone gravitates there for 3 reasons:

1) Other parks close earlier than MK
2) Better night activities at MK
3) It's THE park to visit if you're there a short time.

One thing they could do is bolster the offerings and hours at the other 3 parks. They are doing that with the EPCOT revamp and DHS expansion. Avatar helped some. Hours at AK helps some.

More total people come, but Disney has plenty of space and would be a lot better if they distributed the crowds more evenly.

Lastly, they need to increase prices...a lot, particularly at MK. If you want to go to MK, they need a demand based premium or something. I don't love the idea, but people will respond to significantly increased prices. 10% isn't going to move the needle, but 50% would. You would have a lot of upset people, but it's an option.

Honestly we spend the least amount of time in the MK. We are Epcot and AK fans. Heck, with my moms favorite ride being Toy Story we would do HS before MK.