Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[GoofGoof]

The CDC keeps a running count of vaccinations. Here is the update as of 1PM Sunday 12/20:

DISTRIBUTED DOSES
2,838,225
ADMINISTERED DOSES
556,208
[1]Update: Dec 20 2020 1:00 PM

COVID-19 Vaccination

COVID-19 vaccines protect against COVID-19. Get safety info and more.

www.cdc.gov

This is only the Pfizer vaccine as Moderna starts officially today. We should see an exponential ramp up of vaccinations going forward as they work through the phases of eligible people.

 

[thomas998]

This concept was being considered for after the vaccine is widely available not immediately. It’s being widely talked about that the goal is to have kids vaccinated before the start of the next school year. I would not be surprised to see schools require the vaccine in the fall.

Again, not an issue if they do it after the vaccine is readily available. Nobody has to get a vaccine they don’t want they still have the choice. Nobody has to go on a cruise or to a concert or to WDW. There’s not a discussion around makimg people show proof of vaccination to come out of their house so not a “lockdown”. In the Ticketmaster example they are saying either proof of vaccination or a negative Covid test so there is an alternative and I’m sure if it’s for true medical reasons exceptions could be made.

I don‘t know if Disney will consider something like this, possibly only in the worse case scenario if the vaccine roll out is not as successful as hoped and the covid restrictions need to stay in place through 2021. At what point does it make better business sense for Disney to require a vaccine? DCL is much more likely to require it than WDW. It all depends on the situation with the pandemic and how long it takes to bring cases down.

There has been no evidence of a mutation that has made any of the vaccines ineffective. Not saying it can’t happen, but right now that’s not the case.

One of the biggest issues is there is no indication of how long the vaccine would be effective. With something like measles the vaccines last a very long time which is precisely what happens if you don't have the measles vaccine and simply have the measles, either vaccinated or contracting the measles pretty much gives you immunity for life... but with this virus we're already being told that someone that has had it is probably only immune for 6 months before the immunity starts to peter out... so why would we assume that a vaccinated person is going to have immunity last longer than the immunity of the person that had the virus? It is quite possible that any immunity you get from a vaccination is going to be fleeting. I fear this thing may end up sticking around forever and we simply have to wait until a mutations hits it that renders it no more than a nuisance virus like the common cold, because if we are not going to have enough vaccines for everyone until the middle of 2021 and if the vaccine effectiveness peters out in 6 months then you are never going to have everyone immune at the same time to stop the virus.

 

[thomas998]

The CDC keeps a running count of vaccinations. Here is the update as of 1PM Sunday 12/20:

DISTRIBUTED DOSES
2,838,225
ADMINISTERED DOSES
556,208
[1]Update: Dec 20 2020 1:00 PM

COVID-19 Vaccination

COVID-19 vaccines protect against COVID-19. Get safety info and more.

www.cdc.gov

This is only the Pfizer vaccine as Moderna starts officially today. We should see an exponential ramp up of vaccinations going forward as they work through the phases of eligible people.

Did they also have a counter of adverse reactions from the vaccine?

 

[correcaminos]

One of the biggest issues is there is no indication of how long the vaccine would be effective. With something like measles the vaccines last a very long time which is precisely what happens if you don't have the measles vaccine and simply have the measles, either vaccinated or contracting the measles pretty much gives you immunity for life... but with this virus we're already being told that someone that has had it is probably only immune for 6 months before the immunity starts to peter out... so why would we assume that a vaccinated person is going to have immunity last longer than the immunity of the person that had the virus? It is quite possible that any immunity you get from a vaccination is going to be fleeting. I fear this thing may end up sticking around forever and we simply have to wait until a mutations hits it that renders it no more than a nuisance virus like the common cold, because if we are not going to have enough vaccines for everyone until the middle of 2021 and if the vaccine effectiveness peters out in 6 months then you are never going to have everyone immune at the same time to stop the virus.

That is what the trials are tracking. So far showing really strong antibodies 3+ months. I think your fears at this time are understandable but unfounded. We go back often enough to be tested to see. But I would like it to also mutate to common cold for most but I think the vaccine is a better choice than waiting.

 

[Heppenheimer]

One of the biggest issues is there is no indication of how long the vaccine would be effective. With something like measles the vaccines last a very long time which is precisely what happens if you don't have the measles vaccine and simply have the measles, either vaccinated or contracting the measles pretty much gives you immunity for life... but with this virus we're already being told that someone that has had it is probably only immune for 6 months before the immunity starts to peter out... so why would we assume that a vaccinated person is going to have immunity last longer than the immunity of the person that had the virus? It is quite possible that any immunity you get from a vaccination is going to be fleeting. I fear this thing may end up sticking around forever and we simply have to wait until a mutations hits it that renders it no more than a nuisance virus like the common cold, because if we are not going to have enough vaccines for everyone until the middle of 2021 and if the vaccine effectiveness peters out in 6 months then you are never going to have everyone immune at the same time to stop the virus.

There's no reason to think that immunity acquired from a vaccine will only last for a limited time. Vaccines are designed to induce an enduring response, and this has no direct correlation to how long immunity from the natural infection lasts.

Unless the circulating strains of the virus mutate enough that the current vaccines are longer effective, it would be very surprising if immunity from the vaccine lasts less than a few years, at a minimum.

 

[danlb_2000]

One of the biggest issues is there is no indication of how long the vaccine would be effective. With something like measles the vaccines last a very long time which is precisely what happens if you don't have the measles vaccine and simply have the measles, either vaccinated or contracting the measles pretty much gives you immunity for life... but with this virus we're already being told that someone that has had it is probably only immune for 6 months before the immunity starts to peter out... so why would we assume that a vaccinated person is going to have immunity last longer than the immunity of the person that had the virus? It is quite possible that any immunity you get from a vaccination is going to be fleeting. I fear this thing may end up sticking around forever and we simply have to wait until a mutations hits it that renders it no more than a nuisance virus like the common cold, because if we are not going to have enough vaccines for everyone until the middle of 2021 and if the vaccine effectiveness peters out in 6 months then you are never going to have everyone immune at the same time to stop the virus.

This is not entirely accurate. I think the 6 month number is being thrown around because they are seeing that people still have immunity 6 months after infection, the virus just hasn't been around long enough for longer term studies. Evidence is pretty encouraging that the immunity will last much longer then that.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Apparently the US Gov’t is close to a deal with Pfizer to provide roughly 70,000,000 more doses in Q2 2021 in exchange for help procuring materials. That would put us up to 370,000,000 does for 185,000,000 Americans. JnJ could get us to the herd immunity finish line if 1 dose is really good enough for government work.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Apparently the US Gov’t is close to a deal with Pfizer to provide roughly 70,000,000 more doses in Q2 2021 in exchange for help procuring materials. That would put us up to 370,000,000 does for 185,000,000 Americans. JnJ could get us to the herd immunity finish line if 1 dose is really good enough for government work.

And the deal is finalized. 70 million doses by June 30. A further 30 million in July 2021. 400 million by July 31 (with Moderna able to provide more if JnJ and/or AstraZeneca fall through).

With just Moderna and Pfizer, herd immunity is possible by Halloween 2021. If we get good news from JnJ next month, it’s possible by summer 2021.

My views on this administration are known, but they’ve managed to pull through now on this one issue. This is good news for us. They will be invoking the Defense Production Act to our benefit, as intended.

 

[GoofGoof]

Did they also have a counter of adverse reactions from the vaccine?

8 cases of anaphylaxis worldwide (over a million vaccinated now worldwide) with 1 person requiring overnight hospitalization and she had a history of allergic reactions. In the same timeframe over 15,000 Americans died from Covid and over 100K are currently in the hospital. Regular adverse reactions to a vaccine are also being tracked but I don’t think those stats are published real time.

 

[GoofGoof]

U.S. buys another 100M doses of Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine

The $1.95 billion agreement doubles the overall U.S. order for the vaccine to 200 million doses.

news.yahoo.com

 

[GoofGoof]

One of the biggest issues is there is no indication of how long the vaccine would be effective. With something like measles the vaccines last a very long time which is precisely what happens if you don't have the measles vaccine and simply have the measles, either vaccinated or contracting the measles pretty much gives you immunity for life... but with this virus we're already being told that someone that has had it is probably only immune for 6 months before the immunity starts to peter out... so why would we assume that a vaccinated person is going to have immunity last longer than the immunity of the person that had the virus? It is quite possible that any immunity you get from a vaccination is going to be fleeting. I fear this thing may end up sticking around forever and we simply have to wait until a mutations hits it that renders it no more than a nuisance virus like the common cold, because if we are not going to have enough vaccines for everyone until the middle of 2021 and if the vaccine effectiveness peters out in 6 months then you are never going to have everyone immune at the same time to stop the virus.

There is no indication that the immunity only lasts 6 months. So far people naturally infected as early as Jan in China still show strong immune response (T-cells) and that’s nearly a year ago now. Only a handful of the 78 million infected worldwide have been reinfected. If immunity lasted only 6 months many people infected more than six months ago (before June 2020) would be infected again and we aren’t seeing that at all. In another study of SARS, which is a very similar coronavirus, people naturally infected still show strong immune response 17 years later. The experts who are working with Covid seem to think there’s a good chance that immunity will last a long time, at least a year and possibly longer. We won’t know for sure until people cross over the 1 year threshold to see if they are reinfected. If there is a significant mutation and outbreak there may be a need for new vaccinations over time. With mRNA its much easier to design and manufacture a new vaccine quickly.

I have no issue with you being opposed to the vaccines and it’s anyone’s choice to get one or not. Without these vaccines working there is no return to normal any time soon. A multi-year worldwide depression will cripple the economy and millions more will die. Pretty grim stuff.

Could COVID-19 immunity last decades? Here’s the science.

For many, key immune cells linger for more than six months after their COVID-19 infection clears.

www.livescience.com

 

[ToTBellHop]

There is no indication that the immunity only lasts 6 months. So far people naturally infected as early as Jan in China still show strong immune response (T-cells) and that’s nearly a year ago now. Only a handful of the 78 million infected worldwide have been reinfected. If immunity lasted only 6 months many people infected more than six months ago (before June 2020) would be infected again and we aren’t seeing that at all. In another study of SARS, which is a very similar coronavirus, people naturally infected still show strong immune response 17 years later. The experts who are working with Covid seem to think there’s a good chance that immunity will last a long time, at least a year and possibly longer. We won’t know for sure until people cross over the 1 year threshold to see if they are reinfected. If there is a significant mutation and outbreak there may be a need for new vaccinations over time. With mRNA its much easier to design and manufacture a new vaccine quickly.

I have no issue with you being opposed to the vaccines and it’s anyone’s choice to get one or not. Without these vaccines working there is no return to normal any time soon. A multi-year worldwide depression will cripple the economy and millions more will die. Pretty grim stuff.

Could COVID-19 immunity last decades? Here’s the science.

For many, key immune cells linger for more than six months after their COVID-19 infection clears.

www.livescience.com

All true, and in practice, there’s no harm from the previously-infected receiving a vaccine to increase the immune response (though it is recommended to wait 2 to 3 months after infection). We do know different individuals have different levels of immunity from infection (and this may correlate with the severity of infection and explain reinfection). Vaccines bring everyone up to a high level of immunity.

How many people have contracted COVID-19 a second time and had a serious infection and/or died? I don’t get the impression it’s a high number.

I tend to trust the scientists suggesting they expect at least a few years of immunity from this virus after vaccination over the folks doing anti-vaxx research with a smart phone on the toilet.

 

[GoofGoof]

All true, and in practice, there’s no harm from the previously-infected receiving a vaccine to increase the immune response (though it is recommended to wait 2 to 3 months after infection). We do know different individuals have different levels of immunity from infection (and this may correlate with the severity of infection and explain reinfection). Vaccines bring everyone up to a high level of immunity.

How many people have contracted COVID-19 a second time and had a serious infection and/or died? I don’t get the impression it’s a high number.

I tend to trust the scientists suggesting they expect at least a few years of immunity from this virus after vaccination over the folks doing anti-vaxx research with a smart phone on the toilet.

To my knowledge the number of people reinfected can be counted on one hand. Maybe there are more, but its a big news story when it happens. I would think that based on the second wave we are now having in NY/NJ and PA where I am there would be many reinfections if immunity didn’t last more than 6 months since the big first wave happened March/April which is 8 or 9 months ago now.

I am in no way an expert on this. I know nothing personally. I was an average science student at best (math was my thing) so I am relying on what others are saying on the topic. Experts seem to be pretty optimistic that immunity will be long lasting and some of these experts are the typical doom and gloom types who always paint a negative picture so if they are optimistic that’s a good sign.

 

[GoofGoof]

Apparently the US Gov’t is close to a deal with Pfizer to provide roughly 70,000,000 more doses in Q2 2021 in exchange for help procuring materials. That would put us up to 370,000,000 does for 185,000,000 Americans. JnJ could get us to the herd immunity finish line if 1 dose is really good enough for government work.

I am hopeful that JnJ comes through and we don’t even need those extra dose in July. We have at least 100M JnJ doses coming if it’s approved in late Jan and that is a one dose vaccine. Taking the original 200M doses (enough for 100M people) from Pfizer and Moderna coming by Feb/Mar and then another 100M doses from JnJ by the end of March we could have enough doses for 200M people by April 1. That’s enough for 80% of US adults to be vaccinated. Then if/when the first 2 vaccines are approved for children (hopefully around April timeframe along with full FDA approval) we can use additional doses from all 3 to vaccinate kids. By Memorial Day 2021 all Americans who want a vaccine (hopefully over 80% of the population) will have one. Then we have reached herd immunity and cases should spiral downward over time.

 

[Heppenheimer]

All true, and in practice, there’s no harm from the previously-infected receiving a vaccine to increase the immune response (though it is recommended to wait 2 to 3 months after infection). We do know different individuals have different levels of immunity from infection (and this may correlate with the severity of infection and explain reinfection). Vaccines bring everyone up to a high level of immunity.

How many people have contracted COVID-19 a second time and had a serious infection and/or died? I don’t get the impression it’s a high number.

I tend to trust the scientists suggesting they expect at least a few years of immunity from this virus after vaccination over the folks doing anti-vaxx research with a smart phone on the toilet.

Hey, I do some if my best internet research on the toilet!

 

[ToTBellHop]

I am hopeful that JnJ comes through and we don’t even need those extra dose in July. We have at least 100M JnJ doses coming if it’s approved in late Jan and that is a one dose vaccine. Taking the original 200M doses (enough for 100M people) from Pfizer and Moderna coming by Feb/Mar and then another 100M doses from JnJ by the end of March we could have enough doses for 200M people by April 1. That’s enough for 80% of US adults to be vaccinated. Then if/when the first 2 vaccines are approved for children (hopefully around April timeframe along with full FDA approval) we can use additional doses from all 3 to vaccinate kids. By Memorial Day 2021 all Americans who want a vaccine (hopefully over 80% of the population) will have one. Then we have reached herd immunity and cases should spiral downward over time.

I realize that is a best-case scenario you are painting, but it would be nice. I am trying to not get too excited and go with the more conservative “this should be available to anyone by July” that the incoming administration is saying. That is them being honest based upon what we have, not what we hope to have. Let’s hope that date can move up, but even telling myself “no more than 10 more months of this *hit“ helps me get out of bed in the morning. Hopefully this current Covid wave is the LAST Covid wave.

As an aside, while I had some knowledge of the Moderna and Pfizer studies and shared here that they were going “well” back in late summer, I know nothing of JnJ’s. Hope it’s going well. AstraZeneca has so much egg on their faces that it would be better to avoid needing them too much. They are better suited for less-developed areas of the world, anyway. We don’t need to be greedy. We can afford the $40 doses. Save the $4 ones for less-wealthy countries.

 

[GoofGoof]

I realize that is a best-case scenario you are painting, but it would be nice. I am trying to not get too excited and go with the more conservative “this should be available to anyone by July” that the incoming administration is saying. That is them being honest based upon what we have, now what we hope to have. Let’s hope that date can move up, but even telling myself “no more than 10 more months of this *hit“ helps me get out of bed in the morning. Hopefully this current Covid wave is the LAST Covid wave.

Amen. No new waves

I would love to see my kids get back to normal school before the end of the school year. I don’t know if that’s possible, but it would be nice. My youngest is in 5th grade and they usually do an end of year field trip to Hershey Park for 5th graders graduating elementary school and moving on to middle school. I know it’s such a minor thing in the grand scheme of life but after so much turmoil it would be great to get that trip in come May or June. Little stuff like that could be possible if the vaccine roll out is smooth.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Amen. No new waves

I would love to see my kids get back to normal school before the end of the school year. I don’t know if that’s possible, but it would be nice. My youngest is in 5th grade and they usually do an end of year field trip to Hershey Park for 5th graders graduating elementary school and moving on to middle school. I know it’s such a minor thing in the grand scheme of life but after so much turmoil it would be great to get that trip in come May or June. Little stuff like that could be possible if the vaccine roll out is smooth.

I expect masks and social distancing for the duration of the 2020-21 school year. It’s rather difficult to revert midstream especially when kids will definitely not all be vaccinated. Fall 2021 could be more normal.

 

[MisterPenguin]

My views on this administration are known, but they’ve managed to pull through now on this one issue. This is good news for us. They will be invoking the Defense Production Act to our benefit, as intended.

The Biden administration has already been planning on doing that, too.

They can get industrial factories to produce the needed materials like subzero coolers or sterile vials so there are no supply shortages or reliance on foreign suppliers.

 

[GoofGoof]

I expect masks and social distancing for the duration of the 2020-21 school year. It’s rather difficult to revert midstream especially when kids will definitely not all be vaccinated. Fall 2021 could be more normal.

Agreed. Masks aren’t going anywhere. Right now in PA they have paused all after school activities and while most schools have some form of physical option a lot are still hybrid with half the days virtual. If the cases drop dramatically by April/May I am hopeful a lot of that will end even if masks and physical distancing is still required.