Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[GoofGoof]

They could have the right to deny entrance all together much like the scanning done in Asia with risk level. But people might hate that. Discussed elsewhere what ticket master suggested. I don't think it will be masks only for not vaccinated as you suggest. It's an all or nothing really.

Keep in mind that BioNTech did not say just 90% too but at least 90%. Moderna is looking at nearly 95% with reduced symptoms for those who do get it. So the vaccine may bring it down to common cold for most.

I agree. I think it’s a slippery slope for WDW to restrict access and/or try to enforce masks based on vaccination. On the flip side of that thinking I also think many Disney parks fans who have gotten the vaccine will get frustrated if the parks are held to a lower capacity and/or masks are still required months after the vaccine is readily available. I pray that’s not the case. The only way I could see a “proof of vaccine” requirement would be if the vaccine is readily available by say April or May and it’s rolling into the holiday season next fall and cases still aren’t low enough to warrant the reduction of Covid restrictions. I think it’s highly unlikely to be that way, but if is they might consider a drastic move to boost attendance. The optimist in me thinks they may be ramping back to somewhat normal operations by Memorial Day.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Right, the messaging in 2019 relating to flu and in March relating to Covid was face coverings (outside of hospital grade PPE) are not an effective way to keep you from being infected. That actually hasn’t changed. What did change is our understanding of the incubation period (longer than most similar viruses) and prevalence of asymptomatic spread. The wear a mask requirement is to keep you from infecting other people. I’m not sure it’s inconsistent messaging. The whole mask thing got politicized and people with a political agenda started jumping up and down with their fingers in their ears screaming Dr Fauci told us not to wear masks in March so now we aren’t going to listen to him.

On the vaccine front I agree that there needs to be a consistent message from everyone. I see no political or personal benefit for resisting a vaccine.

CDC: Wearing a mask could keep you from catching virus

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. health officials are taking a new tack to encourage Americans to wear masks: They're emphasizing recent research that a mask protects the person who wears it.

apnews.com

The messaging as of this month did shift though, and has shifted rather dramatically over the past year. A new study shows masks do indeed provide the wearer some protection. From the article above:

Masks block about 60% of the amount of virus that comes out of an infected person, the study found. But the researchers also found there was benefit when an uninfected person wearing a mask was unlucky enough to be near an infected person who wasn’t wearing one. In that scenario, the amount of virus the uninfected person inhaled fell by 37% — to 50% — if they wore a mask.

More consistent messaging would help to avoid the people putting fingers in their ears. I have been wearing basic masks since March, ahead of the advice. Far from being against masks, I wish the public had been advised to wear them sooner.

 

[correcaminos]

I agree. I think it’s a slippery slope for WDW to restrict access and/or try to enforce masks based on vaccination. On the flip side of that thinking I also think many Disney parks fans who have gotten the vaccine will get frustrated if the parks are held to a lower capacity and/or masks are still required months after the vaccine is readily available. I pray that’s not the case. The only way I could see a “proof of vaccine” requirement would be if the vaccine is readily available by say April or May and it’s rolling into the holiday season next fall and cases still aren’t low enough to warrant the reduction of Covid restrictions. I think it’s highly unlikely to be that way, but if is they might consider a drastic move to boost attendance. The optimist in me thinks they may be ramping back to somewhat normal operations by Memorial Day.

This is a wait and see portion of it for us. The timeline for summer being closer to normal is promising. But a lot really will depend. Masks will go on for a while, but when I don't know.

 

[GoofGoof]

CDC: Wearing a mask could keep you from catching virus

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. health officials are taking a new tack to encourage Americans to wear masks: They're emphasizing recent research that a mask protects the person who wears it.

apnews.com

The messaging as of this month did shift though, and has shifted rather dramatically over the past year. A new study shows masks do indeed provide the wearer some protection. From the article above:

Masks block about 60% of the amount of virus that comes out of an infected person, the study found. But the researchers also found there was benefit when an uninfected person wearing a mask was unlucky enough to be near an infected person who wasn’t wearing one. In that scenario, the amount of virus the uninfected person inhaled fell by 37% — to 50% — if they wore a mask.

More consistent messaging would help to avoid the people putting fingers in their ears. I have been wearing basic masks since March, ahead of the advice. Far from being against masks, I wish the public had been advised to wear them sooner.

Again, the mask mandates in place today are to prevent you from infecting others. There is an ancillary benefit to the wearer but that’s not the primary reason they are required. I don’t see updating recommendations as more data becomes available and additional studies are performed as a lack of consistent messaging. The inconsistent messaging has come from politicians, often contradicting experts working for them. I see this as being much less of an issue with the vaccine for obvious reasons

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I agree. I think it’s a slippery slope for WDW to restrict access and/or try to enforce masks based on vaccination. On the flip side of that thinking I also think many Disney parks fans who have gotten the vaccine will get frustrated if the parks are held to a lower capacity and/or masks are still required months after the vaccine is readily available. I pray that’s not the case. The only way I could see a “proof of vaccine” requirement would be if the vaccine is readily available by say April or May and it’s rolling into the holiday season next fall and cases still aren’t low enough to warrant the reduction of Covid restrictions. I think it’s highly unlikely to be that way, but if is they might consider a drastic move to boost attendance. The optimist in me thinks they may be ramping back to somewhat normal operations by Memorial Day.

There's an effort in the airline industry to create a system called CommonPass for commercial airline travel. At present, the idea is to have every passenger get tested at least once, and ideally a second time when they arrive at their destination.

Where airlines offer pre-flight testing, it appears to popular with the public, but it isn't required. IMO, the problem there too is that the current system in the US is a bit of an inconsistent patchwork. There's a lack of consistency and clear messaging. Even the airlines are asking for more consistency.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...d1d81e-23ab-11eb-952e-0c475972cfc0_story.html

I imagine WDW could also potentially allow visitors to use the same CommonPass, if it is implemented. It would take a massive effort though. the closest I think we have are the Trusted Traveler Programs (TSA Precheck, Global Entry, Sentri) , and those have a massive backlog. Even before the pandemic, they had a massive backlog dating from the last fed gov't shutdown.

 

[correcaminos]

There's an effort in the airline industry to create a system called CommonPass for commercial airline travel. At present, the idea is to have every passenger get tested at least once, and ideally a second time when they arrive at their destination.

Where airlines offer pre-flight testing, it appears to popular with the public, but it isn't required. IMO, the problem there too is that the current system in the US is a bit of an inconsistent patchwork. There's a lack of consistency and clear messaging. Even the airlines are asking for more consistency.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...d1d81e-23ab-11eb-952e-0c475972cfc0_story.html

I imagine WDW could also potentially allow visitors to use the same CommonPass, if it is implemented. It would take a massive effort though. the closest I think we have are the Trusted Traveler Programs (TSA Precheck, Global Entry, Sentri) , and those have a massive backlog. Even before the pandemic, they had a massive backlog dating from the last fed gov't shutdown.

We got precheck for my soon to be 13yo during the pandemic. No massive backlog. Got an appointment within 24 hours and KTN in a couple days. None of this has to with pandemic passes. They would need a new system like other countries developed in very little time in reality for tracing and such.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I seem to recall that my first tetanus booster as a kid was particularly painful in this way. I don't know if they changed the formulation, but I've never felt the same way with subsequent boosters.

I was married to an RN. It was her opinion and my experience that the degree of pain with any shot has as much to do with the person giving the shot as what they are giving. Just having blood work done has had every range from me almost screaming out to not even feeling anything at all. I remember having her give me a shot once and once only. I am still trying to figure out what I said to make her so willing to practically kill me.

 

[GoofGoof]

That makes two of us who are baffled.

For my part, I've been trying to have a good faith discussion. Whenever someone has asked, I've attempted to provide clarification, and have done my best to do so in a way that is reasonable, respectful, and follows the forum rules. We don't have to agree, but we are supposed to avoid name calling and other personal attacks.

I'm sorry if you haven't enjoyed the discussion. I participated, because I found the discussion interesting. I'm still uncertain these initial vaccine announcements = a rapid resolution to the current pandemic. There's a whole complicated process ahead of us.

We need strong public reassurance that the vaccines are safe + effective.
We need effective distribution.
We need clear, consistent messaging going forward.

I don't think we have enough information yet for #1. We don't yet know #2, and we could REALLY use more of #3.

We don’t have #1 yet because it’s too soon. The companies have not even applied for Emergency Use Authorization. So far all we know about efficacy is the result of the cases in the trials so far. Both trials will continue at least until 150+ infections before the final analysis is done. Then on the safety side we have next to nothing right now except that there weren’t major issues resulting in a pause of the trials. As part of the application process the details of the trial will be revealed. Nobody is asking people to take the vaccine without that information. The FDA isn’t going to approve something that’s unsafe or not effective and the data will also be published and peer reviewed so there will be plenty of opportunity for scientific skepticism which is the purpose of peer review.

The distribution is tough. Pfizer has a real challenge. They seem to have a decent plan and they started a pilot program to test it. The warp speed program is using McKesson for distribution and they have a good deal of experience in the industry. A bigger challenge is organizing down to the state and local levels. Where to go to get vaccinated, who gets the vaccine and timing (especially with the 2 dose vaccines). I can almost guarantee there will be some issues, it’s nearly impossible it gets off without a hitch. We just have to hope any issues or delays don’t sour too many people and result in less people than necessary end up getting vaccinated.

The messaging has to be clear. That starts with transparency in the development and testing processes. The FDA needs to make clear announcements on their analysis because ultimately most people will be relying on their independent review to make a decision on whether to get the vaccine.

 

[correcaminos]

I was married to an RN. It was her opinion and my experience that the degree of pain with any shot has as much to do with the person giving the shot as what they are giving. Just having blood work done has had every range from me almost screaming out to not even feeling anything at all. I remember having her give me a shot once and once only. I am still trying to figure out what I said to make her so willing to practically kill me.

It's not the pinch going in I am talking about though, it's how it feels 24 hours later. That part has to do with the body reacting to the vaccine, not how the shot went in. Or so the medical people informed me.

 

[Goofyernmost]

It's not the pinch going in I am talking about though, it's how it feels 24 hours later. That part has to do with the body reacting to the vaccine, not how the shot went in. Or so the medical people informed me.

OK, gotcha! I guess I've been lucky because the only thing I have felt with any of my vaccinations was when it was when they actually did it. I've never had any other reaction. I sometimes wonder if I ever get the shot or not. I keep thinking placebo time. On the other hand the placebo has worked pretty well since I've never had the flu in the 12 years I have been getting them.

 

[Disney Experience]

I am part of the Phase 3 Pfizer study, and my wife is part of the Phase 3 Moderna study.
We both had similar side effect from the two shot sequences:
Shot 1: Sore Arm
Shot 2: Sore Arm..next day:Chills,100.3 fever, fatigue. Day after that: Felt great

Imho. it was well worth it to help us get to a publicly available vaccine, and for my own (and my wife's) protection.

 

[Disney Experience]

I agree with early posters that until lots of people get vaccinated, the mask rules and social distancing will likely stay in place. I wish there was a way if one is vaccinated to have the freedom of choice not to wear a mask, but people would abuse that and claim vaccination even if unvaccinated if they hate wearing masks.

But at some point masks should become optional. I would assume this would occur when the case numbers in Orange County, Florida go down enough as people are vaccinated.

 

[Disney Experience]

It's not the pinch going in I am talking about though, it's how it feels 24 hours later. That part has to do with the body reacting to the vaccine, not how the shot went in. Or so the medical people informed me.

I agree the injection pain was almost nothing (at least for me). The second shot for my wife and I was what had side effects beyond a sore arm a day after the shot. But the day after that, everything was good. The reaction is just the body reacting to the covid protein spike produced by the cells which got the messenger RNA. I like that both Pfizer and Moderna use MRNA, because beyond the initial hijacked cells, the vaccine does not hijack other cells. The spike they produce is not the virus and cannot replicate.

 

[Disney Experience]

It's not the pinch going in I am talking about though, it's how it feels 24 hours later. That part has to do with the body reacting to the vaccine, not how the shot went in. Or so the medical people informed me.

24 hours after second shot was a Saturday for me in September. I slept a lot, had chills, ached a bit. Just the immune system response. Sunday felt great. That is also how I know I had the vaccine vs. the placebo. Saline does not give one a fever, chills, nor body aches.

 

[Disney Experience]

Thanks for that. Did they tell you what the plan is if you received the placebo? Once they get approval for emergency use do you get to be first in line to get the actual vaccine if you got the placebo? It would seem only fair to me to do that for any volunteers.

GoofGoof,
I am not who you asked, but I was told by the research site that "usually" once the vaccine is released for use they (The pharmaceutical Company ) will create an open study and put the people who got the placebo into it [So they can be some of the first people to get the "approved" vaccine]. This of course unmasks the data. Both groups then can be used to see long term immunity levels. Of course doing so decreases the value of the original study by eliminating the control group. Pure research/science would prefer the placebo group to not get vaccinated, but that would not be ethical.

In any case they cannot stop someone from taking an approved vaccine if they decide not to create an open study. But a subject would be removed from the original study if they are vaccinated for coivd outside of the study because it would confound the results.

 

[GoofGoof]

GoofGoof,
I am not who you asked, but I was told by the research site that "usually" once the vaccine is released for use they (The pharmaceutical Company ) will create an open study and put the people who got the placebo into it [So they can be some of the first people to get the "approved" vaccine]. This of course unmasks the data. Both groups then can be used to see long term immunity levels. Of course doing so decreases the value of the original study by eliminating the control group. Pure research/science would prefer the placebo group to not get vaccinated, but that would not be ethical.

In any case they cannot stop someone from taking an approved vaccine if they decide not to create an open study. But a subject would be removed from the original study if they are vaccinated for coivd outside of the study because it would confound the results.

Thanks for the reply, that makes sense. I assumed they would do that for the placebo group in this case because of the nature of the risk.

 

[correcaminos]

I am part of the Phase 3 Pfizer study, and my wife is part of the Phase 3 Moderna study.
We both had similar side effect from the two shot sequences:
Shot 1: Sore Arm
Shot 2: Sore Arm..next day:Chills,100.3 fever, fatigue. Day after that: Felt great

Imho. it was well worth it to help us get to a publicly available vaccine, and for my own (and my wife's) protection.

Thank you both for being a part of a study! My husband could not due to work (down a man and the hours were not good for him) and my 12yo chickened out (lovingly stating that because it would be a lot for a preteen to go through placebo or not). So it was just me

Nice to hear side effects were similar. I did not have chills personally but my fever spike was a few hours and only a degree. I only felt some fatigue within 24 hours of the second shot. None with the first. How was your wife with Moderna's in terms of fever or was that nearly identical to yours?

I agree saline does not give side effects like that. Maybe a hint of a sore arm, but not super painful for 2 days and small fevers. My flu shot was so much less than both.

We also have AstraZenica here at the university's hospital. I tried to get my dad to do that one since 2 of 3 were actual vs placebo. But he declined. I would have liked him covered if possible.

 

[correcaminos]

OK, gotcha! I guess I've been lucky because the only thing I have felt with any of my vaccinations was when it was when they actually did it. I've never had any other reaction. I sometimes wonder if I ever get the shot or not. I keep thinking placebo time. On the other hand the placebo has worked pretty well since I've never had the flu in the 12 years I have been getting them.

You are lucky! I just take lots of painkillers and hope for the best. Also always do my left arm so I can drive better (6spd car) I have read that many do not really react even with the real thing. Flu varies for me. Sometimes nothing and sometimes soreness for a day or less. More reactions since switching to the quad

 

[GoofGoof]

In the Moderna press release they did give a little color around side effects. More details to come but here‘s the section:

The interim analysis included a concurrent review of the available Phase 3 COVE study safety data by the DSMB, which did not report any significant safety concerns. A review of solicited adverse events indicated that the vaccine was generally well tolerated. The majority of adverse events were mild or moderate in severity. Grade 3 (severe) events greater than or equal to 2% in frequency after the first dose included injection site pain (2.7%), and after the second dose included fatigue (9.7%), myalgia (8.9%), arthralgia (5.2%), headache (4.5%), pain (4.1%) and erythema/redness at the injection site (2.0%). These solicited adverse events were generally short-lived. These data are subject to change based on ongoing analysis of further Phase 3 COVE study data and final analysis.

For those without a medical degree like me myalgia = muscle pain and arthralgia = joint pain.

Here‘s the full press release:

Moderna’s COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Meets its Primary Efficacy Endpoint in the First Interim Analysis of the Phase 3 COVE Study | Moderna, Inc.

First interim analysis included 95 participants with confirmed cases of COVID-19 Phase 3 study met statistical criteria with a vaccine efficacy of 94.5% (p

investors.modernatx.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Here’s an article where Dr Fauci makes the statement that we need to get 80-85% of people to be vaccinated to meaningfully reduce infection rates.

Dr. Fauci Says This Many People Need to Get Vaccinated to Stop COVID

With two promising COVID vaccines in late-stage clinical trials right now, it finally feels like an end to the coronavirus pandemic may be in sight. Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) and one of the leading members of the White House...

www.yahoo.com

I was thinking if we could reach herd immunity at 60% immune and the vaccines were really 90%+ effective we would need about 2/3 of people to take it. I don’t know if we get to 80-85%, our informal poll here is still below 80%. He does mention that masks and distancing won’t go away automatically with a vaccine and we won’t be able to return to normal until enough people get vaccinated.