Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[Shouldigo12]

The same could be said for college dorms but those don't have any sort of special consideration.

And I'm shocked teachers aren't right up near the top. Nobody seems to really see the crisis that's forming with so many kids out of the classroom for so long.

And what about essential workers. My job at a grocery store where many choose not to wear masks puts me at high risk. Shouldn't I be right at the top too?

Again, not everyone can be first priority. Lots of people are at high risk for either catching it or having serious complications, we have to decide who's most at risk and go from there.

 

[GoofGoof]

And what about essential workers. My job at a grocery store where many choose not to wear masks puts me at high risk. Shouldn't I be right at the top too?

Again, not everyone can be first priority. Lots of people are at high risk for either catching it or having serious complications, we have to decide who's most at risk and go from there.

It’s not an easy call on who gets it first and then on how you show proof you are in that group. The easy part is taking care of first responders and healthcare workers on the front line first. That’s the equivalent of putting your oxygen mask on first before helping the child next to you. Covering very high risk people next makes a lot of sense too. They are most likely to have serious complications or die from the virus. Once that’s done there’s a lot of directions to go. I am good with 65+ being in the next group because they are next most likely to have serious issues, but I can certainly see an argument that essential workers that have to work outside the home could also be a high priority.

My hope is as additional vaccines potentially get approval the time to vaccinate everyone outside of that too group is a lot smaller. If it’s a matter of 2 to 3 months difference it’s probably not too big an issue. If that report showing 7 - 9 months holds true that’s a long time for people to get anxious they have to wait.

 

[Shouldigo12]

It’s not an easy call on who gets it first and then on how you show proof you are in that group. The easy part is taking care of first responders and healthcare workers on the front line first. That’s the equivalent of putting your oxygen mask on first before helping the child next to you. Covering very high risk people next makes a lot of sense too. They are most likely to have serious complications or die from the virus. Once that’s done there’s a lot of directions to go. I am good with 65+ being in the next group because they are next most likely to have serious issues, but I can certainly see an argument that essential workers that have to work outside the home could also be a high priority.

My hope is as additional vaccines potentially get approval the time to vaccinate everyone outside of that too group is a lot smaller. If it’s a matter of 2 to 3 months difference it’s probably not too big an issue. If that report showing 7 - 9 months holds true that’s a long time for people to get anxious they have to wait.

That's what I was trying to get across, that there's always going to be a reason to bump someone up the list haha. I think you said it a bit more eloquently though. Like you said, the first and second spots are easy to figure out. But it's going to be a very difficult task to figure out who should go next, and no matter it's probably going to result in many shouting that (x) group should get it instead. I do not envy the people having to make these decisions right now. Healthcare workers and the most at risk complications wise should be first; after that, I've already decided I'll respect whatever decisions my state comes to, even if it's not favorable to me.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

And what about essential workers. My job at a grocery store where many choose not to wear masks puts me at high risk. Shouldn't I be right at the top too?

Again, not everyone can be first priority. Lots of people are at high risk for either catching it or having serious complications, we have to decide who's most at risk and go from there.

In short, there's reason to think the rollout might not go 100% smoothly, with everyone satisfied, especially given everything we have seen in 2020.

 

[GoofGoof]

Update on timing:
There is an expectation that Moderna will formally apply for EUA by the end of November and then the independent board reviewing Pfizer’s application in meetings ending Dec 10 will have a second round of meetings the following week, ending on Dec 17, to review Moderna’s vaccine. If both go as expected then both vaccines should begin distribution and inoculation of the first phase of people before Christmas. Nothing Earth shattering here other than the expected dates of application and review for Moderna.

Coronavirus vaccine czar said Moderna will seek an emergency use authorization for its vaccine by the end of November

Slaoui said an FDA panel would review Moderna's application on December 17, a week after it reviews Pfizer's vaccine application for emergency use.

www.yahoo.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Update on 3rd potential vaccine:

Oxford/AstraZeneca say their Covid vaccine is at least 70% effective on average with one of the dosing regiments over 90% effective. Strangely the dosing regiment of 1 full dose followed by a full dose a month later was 62% effective while a half dose followed by a full dose a month later was over 90% effective. The good news there is the more effective 1/2 then 1 full dose regiment actually makes the vaccine available to more people sooner since you only need 1.5 doses per person instead of 2. The US trial for that vaccine hasn’t finished yet due to the longer pause here.

Oxford/AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine may be up to 90 per cent effective

A covid-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford may be up to 90 per cent effective when given first as a half dose and then a full dose, and it doesn't need to be kept at a very low temperature

www.newscientist.com

 

[eliza61nyc]

Update on 3rd potential vaccine:

Oxford/AstraZeneca say their Covid vaccine is at least 70% effective on average with one of the dosing regiments over 90% effective. Strangely the dosing regiment of 1 full dose followed by a full dose a month later was 62% effective while a half dose followed by a full dose a month later was over 90% effective. The good news there is the more effective 1/2 then 1 full dose regiment actually makes the vaccine available to more people sooner since you only need 1.5 doses per person instead of 2. The US trial for that vaccine hasn’t finished yet due to the longer pause here.

Oxford/AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine may be up to 90 per cent effective

A covid-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford may be up to 90 per cent effective when given first as a half dose and then a full dose, and it doesn't need to be kept at a very low temperature

www.newscientist.com

also they believe it won't need to be stored at crazy temperatures so possibly easier to distribute.

Hey, this is one case of the more great minds working on the problem the better.

 

[HongKongFooy]

We need to get our priorities straight as to distribution of vaccine.

Since the proper pecking order should be based on human worth and dignity then if you play for the Atlanta Falcons, Boston Celtics, San Francisco Giants, New Jersey Devils or play on the ATP tours you deserve to be first in line; it's as simple as that. After that group A list Hollywood and producers followed by well known musicians and officers of large corporations.

 

[GoofGoof]

also they believe it won't need to be stored at crazy temperatures so possibly easier to distribute.

Hey, this is one case of the more great minds working on the problem the better.

Yes, it doesn’t require special equipment to store. I believe this is the vaccine that a lot of the world population will end up getting. In some parts of the world it’s difficult to keep deep frozen vaccines. Oxford was working with a company in India and ran trials in S America too. I think this one and maybe the JnJ one which only needs one dose and no deep freeze will end up vaccinating most of the world. It’s a great place to be right now to have a third effective vaccine. Great sign that more will probably work as well. The virus appears to be susceptible to vaccination which wasn’t a certainty going into this process.

 

[GoofGoof]

We need to get our priorities straight as to distribution of vaccine.

Since the proper pecking order should be based on human worth and dignity then if you play for the Atlanta Falcons, Boston Celtics, San Francisco Giants, New Jersey Devils or play on the ATP tours you deserve to be first in line; it's as simple as that. After that group A list Hollywood and producers followed by well known musicians and officers of large corporations.

The Falcons kinda stink this year...and does anyone actually care about the Devils? If you win a Stanley Cup and have your parade in a parking lot I think that knocks you down several levels in the pecking order.

They did say there could be some priority for high profile Americans but I think more like political leaders and possibly heads of large companies. That’s a small group overall when they are vaccinating hundreds of million people.

 

[networkpro]

That’s a small group overall when they are vaccinating hundreds of million people.

A very vocal and whiny group.

 

[Shouldigo12]

Update on 3rd potential vaccine:

Oxford/AstraZeneca say their Covid vaccine is at least 70% effective on average with one of the dosing regiments over 90% effective. Strangely the dosing regiment of 1 full dose followed by a full dose a month later was 62% effective while a half dose followed by a full dose a month later was over 90% effective. The good news there is the more effective 1/2 then 1 full dose regiment actually makes the vaccine available to more people sooner since you only need 1.5 doses per person instead of 2. The US trial for that vaccine hasn’t finished yet due to the longer pause here.

Oxford/AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine may be up to 90 per cent effective

A covid-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford may be up to 90 per cent effective when given first as a half dose and then a full dose, and it doesn't need to be kept at a very low temperature

www.newscientist.com

That's good news. I remember hearing that rural areas might be facing a lot of trouble when it comes to storing the other two vaccines since they don't have the equipment that could store them at the proper temperature. So- knock on wood- if this vaccine really does have the same efficacy as the other two, that could potentially solve that problem.

'We're being left behind': Rural hospitals can't afford ultra-cold freezers to store the leading Covid-19 vaccine

Large urban hospitals are rushing to buy expensive ultra-cold freezers to store what's likely to be the first approved Covid-19 vaccine. But most rural hospitals can't afford these high-end units.

www.statnews.com

 

[GoofGoof]

That's good news. I remember hearing that rural areas might be facing a lot of trouble when it comes to storing the other two vaccines since they don't have the equipment that could store them at the proper temperature. So- knock on wood- if this vaccine really does have the same efficacy as the other two, that could potentially solve that problem.

'We're being left behind': Rural hospitals can't afford ultra-cold freezers to store the leading Covid-19 vaccine

Large urban hospitals are rushing to buy expensive ultra-cold freezers to store what's likely to be the first approved Covid-19 vaccine. But most rural hospitals can't afford these high-end units.

www.statnews.com

Yes, the JnJ one also does not require special freezers and is potentially only 1 dose so great for harder to reach areas.

 

[danlb_2000]

Yes, it doesn’t require special equipment to store. I believe this is the vaccine that a lot of the world population will end up getting. In some parts of the world it’s difficult to keep deep frozen vaccines. Oxford was working with a company in India and ran trials in S America too. I think this one and maybe the JnJ one which only needs one dose and no deep freeze will end up vaccinating most of the world. It’s a great place to be right now to have a third effective vaccine. Great sign that more will probably work as well. The virus appears to be susceptible to vaccination which wasn’t a certainty going into this process.

It will be interesting to see how effective JnJ's vaccine it. As you say, it only needs one dose and is stable for up to two years at -4 F and up to three months at 35.6° to 46.4°. If it has good effectivity this might be the vaccine of choice for a lot of the world.

 

[GoofGoof]

Quantas airline is the first airline to talk about plans to require proof of vaccination for travelers to fly. Not for US domestic flights, but if other airlines follow suit it would be another area requiring vaccinations which could make it more acceptable for WDW to do something like that from a public relations standpoint.

Passengers will need vaccine proof for international flights, warns Qantas boss

The boss of Qantas has said passengers will be required to show proof that they have taken a Covid-19 vaccine before they step foot on the airline's planes and embark on international travel. Alan Joyce, the Irish-born chief executive of the Australian carrier, said when vaccines become readily...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[ToTBellHop]

Quantas airline is the first airline to talk about plans to require proof of vaccination for travelers to fly. Not for US domestic flights, but if other airlines follow suit it would be another area requiring vaccinations which could make it more acceptable for WDW to do something like that from a public relations standpoint.

Passengers will need vaccine proof for international flights, warns Qantas boss

The boss of Qantas has said passengers will be required to show proof that they have taken a Covid-19 vaccine before they step foot on the airline's planes and embark on international travel. Alan Joyce, the Irish-born chief executive of the Australian carrier, said when vaccines become readily...

finance.yahoo.com

It’s pretty likely that it’ll be required for international travel and, by extension, all cruising. Id be surprised if it were required to go to WDW since they can’t really verify it. Domestic air travel? Perhaps.

 

[GoofGoof]

It will be interesting to see how effective JnJ's vaccine it. As you say, it only needs one dose and is stable for up to two years at -4 F and up to three months at 35.6° to 46.4°. If it has good effectivity this might be the vaccine of choice for a lot of the world.

The hope is the one dose is effective. They have also done a portion of their trial with 2 doses so if that dosing regiment ends up much more effective they may end up needing 2 also. If the regiments are close to the same or like Oxford where the lesser dose was actually more effective they will do that. I’m assuming that if the JnJ and AstraZeneca vaccines end up being effective enough they will sell far more doses over time. For the longer run Pfizer has already started working on a powder form of their vaccine which doesn’t require deep freeze that they expect out by middle of 2021 so they may still get into the worldwide plan.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red.

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type:​

• mRNA
• 2 doses
• requires sub-zero storage, -20C for long term storage; keeps for a month in a regular fridge

Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​

​

Earliest according to CDC:​

• “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.
• CDC's projection did not pan out

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020. It's *possible* that interim results in November can lead to Federal emergency use approval in December, otherwise, beginning of 2021.​

Effectiveness: over 90%​

Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type:​

• mRNA
• 2 doses
• requires ultra-cold storage, -70C for long term storage; can keep for 15 days in special cooler, or 5 days in regular fridge

​

Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​

​

Warp Speed:​

• $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)
• Though Warp Speed will pay for the vaccine and the CDC will guide distribution, Pfizer has not accepted any money in advance and they have set up their own distribution operations

​

Earliest according to CDC:​

• “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well).
• Late Oct or Nov.
• 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.
• CDC's projections did not pan out

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: ​

• Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.
• Now, not going to happen until Thanksgiving the earliest.
• Likely to get the governmental review before Thanksgiving which will show 90% effectiveness and completely safe (on the populations they tested)
• Request for emergency use submitted Nov 20, results pronounced on Dec 10

Effectiveness: Over 90%​

AstraZeneca/Oxford

​

Type:​

• altered chimp adenovirus
• can be one or two shots, with two being more effective
• no difficult storage requirements

​

Warp Speed: $1.2B​

​

Phase 3:​

• In progress, started in September, study paused due to unexplained illness. Restarted in Europe, still on hold in the US. Restarted in the U.S. too.
• About to apply for emergency use overseas (11/23). Will then present that data to US FDA since U.S. phase 3 is still ongoing.

​

Earliest according to CDC:​

• Doses can be delivered by Oct.
• CDC projections did not pan out

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​

​

Effectiveness: One shot model: 62% effective. Two shot model: 90% effective. Company is claiming, in total, 70.4% effectiveness.​

Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type:​

• altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine)
• 1 dose
• only refrigeration to store

​

Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​

​

Phase 3: just started in September, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020, enrollment now on a temporary pause due to one subject's unexplained illness. Enrollment restarted (the illness was in the placebo group).​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.​

Novavax

Type: sticking proteins on microscopic particles​

​

Warp Speed: $1.6B​

​

Phase 3: just started late September, could be done by the beginning of 2021​

​

Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​

​

Earliest according to manufacturer: Plan to make 100M doses by 1st Q of 2021.​

Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​

​

Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​

​

Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​

​

If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​

​

An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​

​

In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​

In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely... and unlikely it was.

 

[GoofGoof]

It’s pretty likely that it’ll be required for international travel and, by extension, all cruising. Id be surprised if it were required to go to WDW since they can’t really verify it. Domestic air travel? Perhaps.

Why would WDW have a harder time to verify than an airline? I would assume if this becomes mainstream for flying or cruising people will either have a paper copy of a proof of vaccination or potentially an app. Ticketmaster is attemptimg to build an app that concert and sports venues can use. I assume Disney could use something like that.

 

[MisterPenguin]

With regard to children having to be vaccinated for school, the laws vary from state to state:

Medical exemption: All states allow for a medical exemption.​

​

​

Religious exemption: All states allow for a religious exemption except for:​

ME, NY, WV, MS, CA​

​

​

Philosophical/Personal Belief exemption:​

​

In addition to a religious exemption, these states allow people to opt out for 'personal beliefs' or 'philosophical' reasons:​

PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, ND, LA, AR, OK, TX, CO, AZ, UT, ID, OR​

​

So, presumably, all the other states *don't* allow personal/philosophical exemptions. However, these states make it clear that they specifically ban the use of a personal/philosophical reason for exemption (but still allow religious):​

NJ, DE, IA, WY, NC​

​

​

States also vary greatly as to what vaccines are required and which ones aren't.

States With Religious and Philosophical Exemptions From School Immunization Requirements

All 50 states have legislation requiring specified vaccines for students. 44 states and Washington D.C. that grant religious exemptions for people who have religious objections to immunizations.

www.ncsl.org

https://www.cdc.gov/phlp/docs/school-vaccinations.pdf

State Vaccine-Specific Requirements

Vaccination state laws and requirements by vaccine for entrance to childcare, school (kindergarten-Grade 12), colleges, and universities.

www.immunize.org

More Parents Religious Exemptions for Vaccinations Personal

Experts say vaccinating children helps protect them from disease as well as other children in their community

www.healthline.com