Covid Vaccine Updates and General Discussion About Vaccines

[Ckelly14]

This has been an entertaining and thought provoking discussion.

My personal opinion is I find it very unlikely that Disney will base admittance to the park based on vaccination status. Very difficult to monitor and we are unlikely to know what the real effect of vaccine on transmission will be for some time.

We need to hope that vaccination (in addition to current precautions) starts a downward trend in cases and percent positivity, which should allow Disney to increase their crowd levels months before "everyone" is vaccinated.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Yes and there are other parts of the country with similar dynamics. What I envision is a less “organized“ system than something like voting where they have a list of eligible people and you have to be on it to get a vaccine. I see it as more being rules based with age being a big factor. Age is usually proven with a driver’s license and that’s good enough. For medical conditions it would have to be a doctor’s note. Where it gets tricky is how to do phase 2 and 3 from the model below:
View attachment 514692
Do employers provide letters to employees to use as proof? Do they take the vaccine clinic directly to schools or child care facilities in phase 2 or all those other places in phase 3? Maybe show a pay stub? Seems like a logistical nightmare and ripe for fraud if people are intent on jumping the line.

The easiest way seems like it would be to just directly partner with the places of business. Hospitals could handle administration to their staff. School districts could be involved in distributing to their employees. Franchise systems (day cares, hotels) could work with their operators to help coordinate. You can get a lot of penetration using existing large organizations and then require proof of eligibility at less directed distribution sites that fill in the gaps.

 

[Jimmy Thick]

As soon as a vaccine is available I'm gathering the family, getting stuck and going to Disney World/ Universal for two weeks. Whatever anyone else chooses to do is up to them but I'll know my family and myself is going to be healthy and enjoy WDW without the stress of covid.

 

[correcaminos]

Yes and there are other parts of the country with similar dynamics. What I envision is a less “organized“ system than something like voting where they have a list of eligible people and you have to be on it to get a vaccine. I see it as more being rules based with age being a big factor. Age is usually proven with a driver’s license and that’s good enough. For medical conditions it would have to be a doctor’s note. Where it gets tricky is how to do phase 2 and 3 from the model below:
View attachment 514692
Do employers provide letters to employees to use as proof? Do they take the vaccine clinic directly to schools or child care facilities in phase 2 or all those other places in phase 3? Maybe show a pay stub? Seems like a logistical nightmare and ripe for fraud if people are intent on jumping the line.

Only 5-15% fall in the last? I don't think so lol. More than half my friends my age are not in those industries lol.

Not to say that their list is wrong, but I don't believe percentages but most of my friends are 30-40s and little to no health risks.

 

[Firepath]

I’m 61 with a neurological problem and supposedly in the same risk category as my 21 year old daughter. Make no sense to me. Vaccination mid-2021!

 

[Disney Experience]

From that chart there are a few issues:

Young adults before healthy 64yo?

Prisoners before people living or working in high population density situations such as the projects? Should one go to jail to get vaccinated?( Not sure that would be worth doing, but still)

 

[GoofGoof]

The easiest way seems like it would be to just directly partner with the places of business. Hospitals could handle administration to their staff. School districts could be involved in distributing to their employees. Franchise systems (day cares, hotels) could work with their operators to help coordinate. You can get a lot of penetration using existing large organizations and then require proof of eligibility at less directed distribution sites that fill in the gaps.

I think that makes sense for the most part. I did see an interview with the CEO of CVS where he talked about their involvement with distribution and he did mention that they would be setting up vaccination clinics at places like nursing homes in phase 1. So even though CVS provides the technicians to vaccinate it doesn’t mean you will go to a CVS store to have them vaccinate you.

Where I think it becomes a slippery slope is in phase 3 of the example where it’s extended to broad based industries. It becomes harder to do the pop up clinics and easier to just have people go to a CVS or other centralized location. I still think that’s where the difficult logistics start. They will need a detailed list of rules on who qualifies and also consider demographics and geographic locations as well. It seems like a kick in the ”junk” to tell a middle aged person who is now unemployed due to this pandemic that they are also last in line to get the vaccine because they aren’t old enough, young enough or employed. Tough decisions ahead. Someone will be left unhappy.

 

[Shouldigo12]

There's not going to be a perfect list; we all deserve to get vaccinated as soon as possible, but unfortunately this is something that has to be done in steps. And unless you're a healthcare worker, that means there's always going to be someone ahead of you in line. It doesn't make it fair or any upset feelings about it unjustified, it's just another unfortunate reality of covid right now.

 

[GoofGoof]

This has been an entertaining and thought provoking discussion.

My personal opinion is I find it very unlikely that Disney will base admittance to the park based on vaccination status. Very difficult to monitor and we are unlikely to know what the real effect of vaccine on transmission will be for some time.

We need to hope that vaccination (in addition to current precautions) starts a downward trend in cases and percent positivity, which should allow Disney to increase their crowd levels months before "everyone" is vaccinated.

I agree. Plan A is the vaccine distribution goes well, cases drop and by the summer WDW can reduce and/or eliminate many Covid restrictions (specifically around distancing) that are preventing them from fully opening now. The talk of showing proof of vaccination was around a what if scenario where that takes longer than expected. Ticketmaster talked about their plan to enable the technology to show proof of vaccination to get into a concert or sports event and that’s where the Disney talk came from. If in a worst case scenario Disney had to keep Covid restrictions through 2021 would it be worth it to them once the vaccine was available to the general public to roll out a proof of vaccine system to get back to full park capacity. If more than half the population is vaccinated it may mean a big enough demand to make it worth while economically. I don‘t think Disney would be a front runner on this concept but if it becomes standard for concerts, sporting events, colleges, regular schools and even some employers to require a vaccine I could see them following the pack.

I am optimistic that the vaccines will work and the cases will come down and this will all be just an academic debate.

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m 61 with a neurological problem and supposedly in the same risk category as my 21 year old daughter. Make no sense to me. Vaccination mid-2021!

From that chart there are a few issues:

Young adults before healthy 64yo?

Prisoners before people living or working in high population density situations such as the projects? Should one go to jail to get vaccinated?( Not sure that would be worth doing, but still)

There's not going to be a perfect list; we all deserve to get vaccinated as soon as possible, but unfortunately this is something that has to be done in steps. And unless you're a healthcare worker, that means there's always going to be someone ahead of you in line. It doesn't make it unfair or any upset feelings about it unjustified, it's just another unfortunate reality of covid right now.

Only 5-15% fall in the last? I don't think so lol. More than half my friends my age are not in those industries lol.

Not to say that their list is wrong, but I don't believe percentages but most of my friends are 30-40s and little to no health risks.

This is why it’s a fascinating debate. It sounds “easy” in theory until you start unpacking the details. I’d rather the problem be too many of us want the vaccine and demand is greater than supply than not enough people want it, but I also don’t want to be sitting here this time next year talking about hopefully getting the vaccine before Christmas. I am hopeful that by March timeframe when the general public is getting vaccinated we are up to 4 or 5 approved vaccines and the timeframe shrinks from 7 months to 2 or 3.

 

[correcaminos]

This is why it’s a fascinating debate. It sounds “easy” in theory until you start unpacking the details. I’d rather the problem be too many of us want the vaccine and demand is greater than supply than not enough people want it, but I also don’t want to be sitting here this time next year talking about hopefully getting the vaccine before Christmas. I am hopeful that by March timeframe when the general public is getting vaccinated we are up to 4 or 5 approved vaccines and the timeframe shrinks from 7 months to 2 or 3.

My comment wasn't about a debate though. Just hard to believe the percentages are right.

I fully expect someone like me to be in the bottom group (taking out the idea I am in a trial) depending on how they look at it. My husband who has mild sleep apnea and a history of asthma (though controlled now) is above me. My soon to be 13 yo too. I just wonder how they came up with percentages.

Of course if I am wrong about getting the real deal, then my trial will be offering me the vaccine anyway in all likelihood. So I'm in a whole other different group anyway.

As more vaccines are approved things can change though.

 

[GoofGoof]

My comment wasn't about a debate though. Just hard to believe the percentages are right.

I fully expect someone like me to be in the bottom group (taking out the idea I am in a trial) depending on how they look at it. My husband who has mild sleep apnea and a history of asthma (though controlled now) is above me. My soon to be 13 yo too. I just wonder how they came up with percentages.

Of course if I am wrong about getting the real deal, then my trial will be offering me the vaccine anyway in all likelihood. So I'm in a whole other different group anyway.

As more vaccines are approved things can change though.

I agree the percents seem off. I also don’t know how they define young adults so maybe that’s the difference. My gut feeling is they may combine 3 and 4 anyway. It’s going to be easier to come up with phase 1a and 1b candidates based on job and nursing home status. Then phase 2 is easy for 65+ and prisons and relatively easy for high risk due to medical conditions assuming they require a doctor’s note. Childcare workers and teachers could also be done on site at schools and daycare. I think at that point you have probably hit 50% of the population and it’s likely end of March or April in the best case. I could see them just open it to everyone else after that. It would be logistically easier for sure. My hope is that by April we may have the JnJ vaccine with a single dose available which would cut the time to distribute in half. If we start to see cases decline overall after half the population is vaccinated it’s also possible that demand drops as some people decide to skip the vaccine. That’s a real risk and especially if there are long lines or delays in getting the vaccine.

 

[correcaminos]

I agree the percents seem off. I also don’t know how they define young adults so maybe that’s the difference. My gut feeling is they may combine 3 and 4 anyway. It’s going to be easier to come up with phase 1a and 1b candidates based on job and nursing home status. Then phase 2 is easy for 65+ and prisons and relatively easy for high risk due to medical conditions assuming they require a doctor’s note. Childcare workers and teachers could also be done on site at schools and daycare. I think at that point you have probably hit 50% of the population and it’s likely end of March or April in the best case. I could see them just open it to everyone else after that. It would be logistically easier for sure. My hope is that by April we may have the JnJ vaccine with a single dose available which would cut the time to distribute in half. If we start to see cases decline overall after half the population is vaccinated it’s also possible that demand drops as some people decide to skip the vaccine. That’s a real risk and especially if there are long lines or delays in getting the vaccine.

I won't guess timelines myself, I leave it to what the experts say. The more vaccines out, the better though.

You could be right about how they define young adults. Maybe I'm not as young as I think I am lol
I do think population dense situations are key. I also am unsure where sub 12 will fall. Time will tell on these though. I will hope great for AstraZenica/Oxford and J&J. We also have Russia and China to help globally.

 

[GoofGoof]

I won't guess timelines myself, I leave it to what the experts say. The more vaccines out, the better though.

You could be right about how they define young adults. Maybe I'm not as young as I think I am lol
I do think population dense situations are key. I also am unsure where sub 12 will fall. Time will tell on these though. I will hope great for AstraZenica/Oxford and J&J. We also have Russia and China to help globally.

When I first saw that list my wife said “so we are in the last group” and I said, “no phase 3 says young adults”. She says that 44 year olds aren’t young adults. She’s probably right, how did I get so old...I guess it’s better than the alternative

As far as timelines, I have no idea, but its fun to speculate. I assume as time goes on they will add in younger children, but that’s still an unknown. Typically they wouldn’t vaccinate children under emergency use authorization but there is nothing typical about any of this. I read somewhere it would take around 6 months of trial data at least and several months of data on the first phases of EUA vaccinations to consider full FDA approval. I think that puts us into the beginning of April at the earliest. It’s anyone’s guess if that gets accelerated or pushed back. A lot may rely on data still coming out.

 

[correcaminos]

When I first saw that list my wife said “so we are in the last group” and I said, “no phase 3 says young adults”. She says that 44 year olds aren’t young adults. She’s probably right, how did I get so old...I guess it’s better than the alternative

As far as timelines, I have no idea, but its fun to speculate. I assume as time goes on they will add in younger children, but that’s still an unknown. Typically they wouldn’t vaccinate children under emergency use authorization but there is nothing typical about any of this. I read somewhere it would take around 6 months of trial data at least and several months of data on the first phases of EUA vaccinations to consider full FDA approval. I think that puts us into the beginning of April at the earliest. It’s anyone’s guess if that gets accelerated or pushed back. A lot may rely on data still coming out.

As a 43, pushing 44, year old I am right with you! When did I get old?

Truly with timelines I am just going with what I see experts say. I know Pfizer is doing 12-17 year olds which is good to me. But young kids it will be interesting to watch and see where it goes. I feel we will have secondary kids (6-12) vaccinated earlier than later but the primary kids (pre-k through 5th) will be interesting. So many more unknowns for little ones. The mRNA vaccines seem really like a game changer though. Technology and science really amaze me sometimes.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

From that chart there are a few issues:

Young adults before healthy 64yo?

Prisoners before people living or working in high population density situations such as the projects? Should one go to jail to get vaccinated?( Not sure that would be worth doing, but still)

Consider that prisoners have high rates of transmission, and the environment poses a risk to the people who are employed there.

 

[drizgirl]

Consider that prisoners have high rates of transmission, and the environment poses a risk to the people who are employed there.

The same could be said for college dorms but those don't have any sort of special consideration.

And I'm shocked teachers aren't right up near the top. Nobody seems to really see the crisis that's forming with so many kids out of the classroom for so long.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

A lot may rely on data still coming out.

Indeed.
My guess is also that local transmission rates might be a factor in distribution. A place like American Samoa (no/low COVID-10 rates) might be later compared to higher rate location (currently, the Dakotas).

It also depends how quickly this all happens (a month vs. many months), how eager people are to take the vaccines, and how well each location can handle the distribution.

 

[GoofGoof]

The same could be said for college dorms but those don't have any sort of special consideration.

And I'm shocked teachers aren't right up near the top. Nobody seems to really see the crisis that's forming with so many kids out of the classroom for so long.

On that list teachers were in phase 2 with only first responders, healthcare workers and extremely high risk and nursing home residents ahead of them in phase 1. The students themselves are likely later because the trials don’t include young children yet.

Young adults are in phase 3 so that covers most college students. They are behind prisoners but ahead of other adults under 65 without high risk medical conditions.

Also, this is just a guideline one group published and not certain to be the final plan.

Indeed.
My guess is also that local transmission rates might be a factor in distribution. A place like American Samoa (no/low COVID-10 rates) might be later compared to higher rate location (currently, the Dakotas).

It also depends how quickly this all happens (a month vs. many months), how eager people are to take the vaccines, and how well each location can handle the distribution.

I think I read somewhere that states will receive an even number of doses based on population but within the states Theu may focus on areas with a higher concentration of cases. For example In FL which we talk about here a lot, they would roll out more vaccines in Miami-Dade since it has a higher percentage of overall cases. The thought being you tackle the worst areas first. Because the whole states rights issues are always a contentious area I don’t see the federal government choosing to do that on a state by state level. They certainly could, but I think it would end up resulting in a lot of push back. There could be pushback within the states too. Nothing will be easy about the distribution.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

The same could be said for college dorms but those don't have any sort of special consideration.

And I'm shocked teachers aren't right up near the top. Nobody seems to really see the crisis that's forming with so many kids out of the classroom for so long.

Shhh....in our area online school has been relatively popular, especially in the upper grades. Last year, high school students often had to be at their bus stops pre-7am, and they spent an hour+ on the bus every day. So right there, that's 5 hours every week of free time they have gained.

School now starts later for the upper grades, and everyone can work at their own pace with fewer distractions, and ample opportunities to email teachers or talk to them one-on-one. when they need help.

There are of course, some drawbacks, like anytime the internet flakes out, and less time with friends. Students are able to connect via Zoom for lunch if they choose.

Students also enjoy the freedom of snacking, drinking water, sitting in comfortable spaces, wearing what they want.