Could Disney face another hostile takeover attempt?

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
The blogger (Dusty Sage) mentioned that these are tough times. One of the comments mentioned that this situation is even worse for Disney than 9/11, that the consumer will be wiped out and won't shop for a Disney vacation at any price.
Speculations.

Times are rough for everyone. Customers won't be buying up for the next iPhone generation.

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mharrington

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
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Speculations.

Times are rough for everyone. Customers won't be buying up for the next iPhone generation.

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Dusty Sage that Apple won't buy, because they're smarter than that:

They are healthy, Dis is sick and will drag down everything. A more likely suitor is Amazon or Google, who's income is only increasing. Bezo would like to have a Network like ABC which would work well with his Washington Post. Remember his girlfriend is a reporter. Possibly even Rupert Murdock. Who is the top shareholder now and could get his Fox business back for less then half of what he sold it for.

Anyway, it was argued that Disney may not have much of a future at all, thanks to the virus. DS argued that even if Apple doesn't buy, someone else might.
 

mharrington

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Dusty has an axe to grind. And with it, he makes stuff up.
Maybe he does have an axe to grind, but I think it's also safe to say he is reporting what analysts are saying. So it's not really fair to blame him for everything. He's only the messenger here.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Maybe he does have an axe to grind, but I think it's also safe to say he is reporting what analysts are saying. So it's not really fair to blame him for everything. He's only the messenger here.
Care to quote 3 analysts saying it?
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
Sadly, I cannot, mainly because Dusty Sage could not.
So instead of believing a blogger on a Disney fan site why not do investigation yourself. Have you even looked to see what analysts are saying?

How about this article from real analysts not a Disney blogger which provides insight into why Disney won't be bought by Apple (or anyone else for that matter):


Basically it has only been a single analyst (who's name is pointed out in the article above) that people has been quoting the past couple weeks saying Disney is a takeover target. So no there are not 3 analysts saying it, which is why Dusty couldn't provide any data to backup his claim. He is doing an opinion piece and talking out his a** just for clicks, he is not a financial analyst. He is entitled to his opinion, but not entitled to his own facts. Fact is Disney while having debt on the books also has a lot of cash. They just took out long term debt (ie, debt that can be paid off in a longer period) in order to pay off short term debt (ie, debt due sooner) and also pay its financial obligations during its business closures. This is standard business practice. Its called shifting debt loads, and something every healthy business does, even when there isn't a crisis. And smart for Disney to do in order to properly ride out this storm.

China has started opening up its theaters, which means things are getting back to normal there. I expect Mulan to be released on time there. Which will likely be a big infusion of cash into Disney. That is also a leading indicator that the US could be a couple months away from opening up its theaters., think mid-May. The administration is also talking about letting businesses in non-hot spots open back up in a matter of weeks, think mid-April. So we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

Bottom line while Disney will take a financial hit (every company is right now), it also has enough in place to ride out the storm. Also just like the article above states, Disney would likely require a very large price tag of $200 Billion (or more) no matter what the stock prices says. This would make it one of the largest acquisition targets in the history of the planet. It would be financially irresponsible for any company to spend that much. Which means very few companies would get approval from their board of directors even to put in a bid for such a purchase in the first place. And even companies like an Amazon or Google which may have the cash to do it, aren't likely to want to buy Disney due to it being in businesses that both wouldn't want to be in. For example do you really think Amazon or Google want to run a theme park or cruise line, highly doubt it. Sure they could sell it, but again who would buy it? Not many suitors when Disney's whole business model is built on top of the IP in which it owns. So if you don't get the IP why buy the parks and cruise ships only to have to license the IP the businesses are built on. Basically the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

Anyways, its a great talking point and great for a site like MC to get page clicks. But very very very unlikely to ever happen, just like we've been trying to tell you for months.
 

mharrington

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
China has started opening up its theaters, which means things are getting back to normal there. I expect Mulan to be released on time there. Which will likely be a big infusion of cash into Disney. That is also a leading indicator that the US could be a couple months away from opening up its theaters., think mid-May. The administration is also talking about letting businesses in non-hot spots open back up in a matter of weeks, think mid-April. So we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.
Since Disney pretty much shut down its studio over the virus, I don't think "Mulan" is happening now. Not in theaters, anyway. The most likely scenario now is for them to release it on Disney Plus, just as they had done with "Onward", whose theater performance had been aborted due to the virus.

Also, while I realize that New York is the main hot spot in the U.S. right now, with a third of all cases in the country being in that state, isn't California a hot spot, too? Let's not forget, the federal government did not bring on the lockdowns in the states. The states did that on their own. If the federal government reopens businesses, then the virus cases could easily go through the roof.

Finally, one of the comments in Dusty Sage's article stated that COVID-19 has killed Hollywood as has been known forever. It is claimed that all movie houses are going to be closed for good because of this, especially as streaming starts to make up for things, though they will obviously not be bringing nearly as much money as the box office tickets for, say, "Black Widow", which, if put on Disney Plus, would bring in nowhere near enough to cover the billion dollars or so price tag of that movie. Hollywood would have to restart again in order to open up theaters across the country, and if California is a hot spot, as I think it is, then that just isn't going to happen.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Since Disney pretty much shut down its studio over the virus, I don't think "Mulan" is happening now. Not in theaters, anyway. The most likely scenario now is for them to release it on Disney Plus, just as they had done with "Onward", whose theater performance had been aborted due to the virus.

Also, while I realize that New York is the main hot spot in the U.S. right now, with a third of all cases in the country being in that state, isn't California a hot spot, too? Let's not forget, the federal government did not bring on the lockdowns in the states. The states did that on their own. If the federal government reopens businesses, then the virus cases could easily go through the roof.

Finally, one of the comments in Dusty Sage's article stated that COVID-19 has killed Hollywood as has been known forever. It is claimed that all movie houses are going to be closed for good because of this, especially as streaming starts to make up for things, though they will obviously not be bringing nearly as much money as the box office tickets for, say, "Black Widow", which, if put on Disney Plus, would bring in nowhere near enough to cover the billion dollars or so price tag of that movie. Hollywood would have to restart again in order to open up theaters across the country, and if California is a hot spot, as I think it is, then that just isn't going to happen.
Just because someone writes something in the comments section does not mean they actually know anything. You need to work on your confirmation bias and accepting as true anything that gets thrown out there by any random person.
 

mharrington

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Even so, there are news articles out there stating that the movie theater industry as we knew it forever may not survive COVID-19, especially as streaming services start making up the difference. Case in point: this article from Time Magazine: https://time.com/5806060/coronavirus-movie-theaters-streaming/.

It must be remembered that AMC in particular is closing hundreds of its theaters for six to twelve weeks (this amounts to basically three months), and that never before has this movie theater chain in particular ever closed for such a long time - or at all. Meanwhile, the Regal and Cinemark theater chains has been closed entirely until further notice.

So this is definitely going to have an impact on not just Disney's theatrical output, but on all of Hollywood's theatrical output.
 
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Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
Since Disney pretty much shut down its studio over the virus, I don't think "Mulan" is happening now. Not in theaters, anyway. The most likely scenario now is for them to release it on Disney Plus, just as they had done with "Onward", whose theater performance had been aborted due to the virus.

Also, while I realize that New York is the main hot spot in the U.S. right now, with a third of all cases in the country being in that state, isn't California a hot spot, too? Let's not forget, the federal government did not bring on the lockdowns in the states. The states did that on their own. If the federal government reopens businesses, then the virus cases could easily go through the roof.

Finally, one of the comments in Dusty Sage's article stated that COVID-19 has killed Hollywood as has been known forever. It is claimed that all movie houses are going to be closed for good because of this, especially as streaming starts to make up for things, though they will obviously not be bringing nearly as much money as the box office tickets for, say, "Black Widow", which, if put on Disney Plus, would bring in nowhere near enough to cover the billion dollars or so price tag of that movie. Hollywood would have to restart again in order to open up theaters across the country, and if California is a hot spot, as I think it is, then that just isn't going to happen.
Mulan is finished and ready to release, even had the premiere, so why would you think it couldn't go into theaters in China now that they are opening back up? Especially with a release date somewhere in May.

So while New York, California and Washington state are listed as hot spots the rest of the country isn't. So while I agree we should be slow to open up the rest of the country it can't stay closed forever. And trust me I'm not on the side of this current administration, but at some point the country has to move on. So my opinion is somewhere between mid-April to mid-May things in the non-hot spots will open back up again.

As for Dusty's comments, again stop believing what a blogger wrote just on face value, do your own investigation. Hollywood has been pushing to do what is known as "day and date" releasing for years, trying to add more revenue for movies. Meaning that it would go to a streaming service the same day as being released in theaters. Its been the theater chains that have pushed back on that asking for exclusivity in their contracts with the Studios. So no Hollywood hasn't been killed, if anything it would thrive because of this. Remember when everyone one said that all Big Box stores would be killed off by Amazon, well a lot are still here. And so just like the big box stores haven't been completely killed off because of Amazon, large theater chains like AMC, Cinemark, and Regal won't be killed off by streaming either. Maybe some of the smaller independent theaters might have to turn back into pure art houses, but I expect they will survive too. Its only the weak ones that won't survive. Either way people will still go out to a movie theater once this all passes.

One thing to remember, Hollywood "as we know it" has been changing since the beginning. From the change to talkies, to World Wars, to now pandemics, and everything in-between, Hollywood has and will survive. It will change and adapt just like it did during every other national crisis this country has seen. What did the Disney Studios do during World War II when half of the world went to war, did it die off, no. Walt started producing war propaganda films (albeit at the insistence of the military who wanted to take over the Burbank lot, but that is another story). Doing that allowed Disney to survive during a time when it wasn't know if Hollywood would survive. Especially after a lot of Europe was destroyed because of the war where releases of Disney full length pictures couldn't be shown. One thing is for sure, Hollywood will find a way to survive, and along with it Disney will too.
 
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mharrington

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Mulan is finished and ready to release, even had the premiere, so why would you think it couldn't go into theaters in China now that they are opening back up? Especially with a release date somewhere in May.
Right now, the Disney studio, like all movie studios, is a so-called nonessential business, which means that they could not release "Mulan" in China or anywhere at all, even if they wanted to. I have no idea what the situation will be like in May, but I've heard that it would only start to decline in May, and I don't think it would be safe to open theaters yet at that time. It would be entirely up to the studio to decide when and where to release this movie or any movie. Mind you, the CDC instituted its allotted 8-week period of isolation last week, so if we followed it, it would end on May 9 or so. Even so, it could be extended, depending on the circumstances, which at this point are not good. Remember, Gov. Newsom said this was indefinite.

So while New York, California and Washington state are listed as hot spots the rest of the country isn't. So while I agree we should be slow to open up the rest of the country it can't stay closed forever. And trust me I'm not on the side of this current administration, but at some point the country has to move on. So my opinion is somewhere between mid-April to mid-May things in the non-hot spots will open back up again.
I believe that the hot spots, including California, have the final say on when things happen. And some have worried that if the current administration were to open up the country so soon (early in April, I heard), the pandemic would go through the roof. Already, Gov. Cuomo of New York is worried about the dramatic rise in cases, coupled with the Surgeon General's warning about such. In any case, the president did not institute lock-downs, state governors did, so it becomes up to the governors to decide when to lift them.

Hollywood has been pushing to do what is known as "day and date" releasing for years, trying to add more revenue for movies. Meaning that it would go to a streaming service the same day as being released in theaters. Its been the theater chains that have pushed back on that asking for exclusivity in their contracts with the Studios. So no Hollywood hasn't been killed, if anything it would thrive because of this. Remember when everyone one said that all Big Box stores would be killed off by Amazon, well a lot are still here. And so just like the big box stores haven't been completely killed off because of Amazon, large theater chains like AMC, Cinemark, and Regal won't be killed off by streaming either. Maybe some of the smaller independent theaters might have to turn back into pure art houses, but I expect they will survive too. Its only the weak ones that won't survive. Either way people will still go out to a movie theater once this all passes.
Wouldn't it seem like a moot point or redundant to release movies in theaters and online at the same time? After all, why spend $10 or $15 to watch a movie at a theater, when you could watch that same movie on streaming for cheaper? And many stores have been decimated by Amazon, like, say, Toys "R" Us, for instance, I believe.
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
Right now, the Disney studio, like all movie studios, is a so-called nonessential business, which means that they could not release "Mulan" in China or anywhere at all, even if they wanted to. I have no idea what the situation will be like in May, but I've heard that it would only start to decline in May, and I don't think it would be safe to open theaters yet at that time. It would be entirely up to the studio to decide when and where to release this movie or any movie. Mind you, the CDC instituted its allotted 8-week period of isolation last week, so if we followed it, it would end on May 9 or so. Even so, it could be extended, depending on the circumstances, which at this point are not good. Remember, Gov. Newsom said this was indefinite.
The release of a movie that is already finished, and already had its premiere, its not determine by whether a studio is deemed nonessential. That only affects movies that are still in pre-production, production, and post-production. Its the US movie theaters being opened back up that determine when a movie will be released in the US (not other countries, they determine things for themselves). So when the theaters open back up to the public, the movies will start getting released again.

Also China is not bound by the CDC (a US agency), they listen to their own government. So if China opens back up its theaters (which it already started) then movies are going to start getting released over time. Again my prediction is in mid-May.


I believe that the hot spots, including California, have the final say on when things happen. And some have worried that if the current administration were to open up the country so soon (early in April, I heard), the pandemic would go through the roof. Already, Gov. Cuomo of New York is worried about the dramatic rise in cases, coupled with the Surgeon General's warning about such. In any case, the president did not institute lock-downs, state governors did, so it becomes up to the governors to decide when to lift them.
The Governors of the various states do have final say as they were the ones that did institute the lock down. But not all states are under a lock down. So the rest of the country will likely get back to business once the Federal Government says they can, which right now appears to be April 12th. Those states currently under lock down will make their own determination at that time. New York and California will likely be the last to lift their lock downs. Also companies are starting to produce medical needs for the rest of the country, which means workers are being called back to work sooner than expected in those areas.

So again we'll have to wait and see where we are when April 12th rolls around.

Wouldn't it seem like a moot point or redundant to release movies in theaters and online at the same time? After all, why spend $10 or $15 to watch a movie at a theater, when you could watch that same movie on streaming for cheaper? And many stores have been decimated by Amazon, like, say, Toys "R" Us, for instance, I believe.
Why? I still go down to Kohl's and buy a shirt that I could easily buy from Amazon, so do a lot of people. Providing easier access to services doesn't mean all previous modes stop being used. There will still be lots of people that go into the theaters to watch a movie just for the experience. That is because no matter how good your home theater is its not the same as a real theater.

What you will see is that event films will still be where large crowds go to the theaters. Whereas smaller films will likely be the ones that people will stay home to watch via a streaming service.

Also Toys R Us had issues long before Amazon. It wasn't going to last, same with Circuit City.
 
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mharrington

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
The Governors of the various states do have final say as they were the ones that did institute the lock down. But not all states are under a lock down. So the rest of the country will likely get back to business once the Federal Government says they can, which right now appears to be April 12th. Those states currently under lock down will make their own determination at that time. New York and California will likely be the last to lift their lock downs. Also companies are starting to produce medical needs for the rest of the country, which means workers are being called back to work sooner than expected in those areas.

So again we'll have to wait and see where we are when April 12th rolls around.
However, the April 12th date doesn't seem to square with the CDC's allotted 8-week period of isolation, which, unless I'm mistaken, extends to the whole country, not just to those that are on lock down. And considering the concerns of cases rising in California and New York in particular, you're right, it is likely they will lift their lock downs last. Like I said, according to "Face the Nation", these cases will likely peak at the end of April, long after the 12th.
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
However, the April 12th date doesn't seem to square with the CDC's allotted 8-week period of isolation, which, unless I'm mistaken, extends to the whole country, not just to those that are on lock down. And considering the concerns of cases rising in California and New York in particular, you're right, it is likely they will lift their lock downs last. Like I said, according to "Face the Nation", these cases will likely peak at the end of April, long after the 12th.
The CDC is providing guidelines, not laws, based on the data they see. They can always reevaluation and adjust those guidelines as more data comes in. Also the CDC is not the one forcing everyone to stay home in CA or NY, it the local state governors. So while CA or NY will likely follow the CDCs guidelines, the rest of the country doesn't have to. Each state will determine what is best for their own state.

Remember the whole point of these lock downs is not to stop the virus just ease impact on the healthcare system. So if cases lower in a majority of the states and its just CA and NY with the largest impact, why affect the rest of the country. Again at some point the rest of the country has to get back to work.
 
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