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Could Disney face another hostile takeover attempt?

mharrington

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
The impact of the Coronavirus will be short lived. Yes, it can have a significant effect on the March 31st quarter but that is only one quarter. I actually think the bigger effect will be on the movie industry.
I'm just saying, it will have a big impact not just on Disney parks, but on Disney, period.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
I have been trying to avoid this discussion for a while, but now I feel as though it's no longer possible...

The coronavirus forced the shutdown of Shanghai and then Hong Kong Disneyland, not to mention numerous movie theaters that would be playing Disney movies, and it is only a matter of time before the domestic parks take the heat, as they will. According to this article from The Motley Fool, the coronavirus will have an impact on the second fiscal quarter, starting in May: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/26/will-the-deadly-coronavirus-hurt-disney.aspx. All of this, in addition to the fact that the parks are on shaky ground right now as it is. Now many plans for the parks in particular seem to be on hold.

On another forum, at least one person commented that if the coronavirus is not contained in two weeks or so, The Walt Disney Company may not survive this, that it will cripple the company beyond recovery.

Do you believe that the coronavirus will so negatively impact Disney that, again, it could be ripe for another takeover or, worse, cease to exist altogether?
Don't worry, Disney will survive just fine.
The coronavirus is exactly the excuse Bob Chapek needed to stop spending money and folks will just keep coming to the parks that are open. And don't worry, the coronavirus will not stop the usual price increases on EVERYTHING at WDW.
 

Dead2009

Well-Known Member
I have been trying to avoid this discussion for a while, but now I feel as though it's no longer possible...

The coronavirus forced the shutdown of Shanghai and then Hong Kong Disneyland, not to mention numerous movie theaters that would be playing Disney movies, and it is only a matter of time before the domestic parks take the heat, as they will. According to this article from The Motley Fool, the coronavirus will have an impact on the second fiscal quarter, starting in May: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/26/will-the-deadly-coronavirus-hurt-disney.aspx. All of this, in addition to the fact that the parks are on shaky ground right now as it is. Now many plans for the parks in particular seem to be on hold.

On another forum, at least one person commented that if the coronavirus is not contained in two weeks or so, The Walt Disney Company may not survive this, that it will cripple the company beyond recovery.

Do you believe that the coronavirus will so negatively impact Disney that, again, it could be ripe for another takeover or, worse, cease to exist altogether?
Disney is going to crumble in 2 weeks if the coronavirus isn't contained? That's fear mongering on a whole 'nother level. The only way this virus will shut down Disney in the states is if the outbreak explodes and hits every state. Also, are we forgetting the common flu? If Disney doesn't shut down the parks for that, why would they shut down for this?
 

el_super

Active Member
I'm just saying, it will have a big impact not just on Disney parks, but on Disney, period.
If this virus gets to the point, that it puts Disney at a severe risk of collapsing, it won't really matter much as any other business capable of buying Disney, would also be severely impacted. We're basically talking about the collapse of civilization levels of bad.

Agree with the others here: no real point to fearmongering.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
If this virus gets to the point, that it puts Disney at a severe risk of collapsing, it won't really matter much as any other business capable of buying Disney, would also be severely impacted. We're basically talking about the collapse of civilization levels of bad.

Agree with the others here: no real point to fearmongering.
If the Coronavirus Virus come to the states snd the Parks are forced to close, insurance will cover the losses from closing. However, it would actually help Disney+ grow faster since the movie theaters would all close. It would also help the Disney television empire. So it would hurt part of the company and help another part. In the long run, the parks will come back and be fine.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
If the Coronavirus Virus come to the states snd the Parks are forced to close, insurance will cover the losses from closing. However, it would actually help Disney+ grow faster since the movie theaters would all close. It would also help the Disney television empire. So it would hurt part of the company and help another part. In the long run, the parks will come back and be fine.
If that nightmare were ever to happen, Orlando would nearly shutdown.
 

el_super

Active Member
If the Coronavirus Virus come to the states snd the Parks are forced to close, insurance will cover the losses from closing.
It's still really early, but if the case of Shanghai, where people are reporting that the whole city is a ghost town, is ported over to the LA/Orange Country Metro area, the entire US economy will start to tank. If it is bad enough to close Disneyland as a precaution, things will already be bad enough that product will sit on ships, stores will go empty, whole industries will shut down (airline/travel/leisure), and businesses will start to flounder immediately.. nationwide. This is the kind of economic damage that would be measured in trillions. No amount of insurance would start to cover these kind of loses. The US government would be the only ones likely to cover this kind of loss and any allocation of public funds in that regard would be highly contested.

Disney+ probably wouldn't fare so well in a world where people are out of work for months and can no longer afford luxuries.

But again.. this is still a far off, remote possibility.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
It's still really early, but if the case of Shanghai, where people are reporting that the whole city is a ghost town, is ported over to the LA/Orange Country Metro area, the entire US economy will start to tank. If it is bad enough to close Disneyland as a precaution, things will already be bad enough that product will sit on ships, stores will go empty, whole industries will shut down (airline/travel/leisure), and businesses will start to flounder immediately.. nationwide. This is the kind of economic damage that would be measured in trillions. No amount of insurance would start to cover these kind of loses. The US government would be the only ones likely to cover this kind of loss and any allocation of public funds in that regard would be highly contested.

Disney+ probably wouldn't fare so well in a world where people are out of work for months and can no longer afford luxuries.

But again.. this is still a far off, remote possibility.
Well. the stock market was interested today. Disney was up 0.36% and Comcast was down 2.15%. I can see both companies being hurt in China but Comcast hurt more as Disney should have insurance while Universal wouldn't on their yet to open Beijing Park. In the long run neither company should suffer.
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
I have been trying to avoid this discussion for a while, but now I feel as though it's no longer possible...

The coronavirus forced the shutdown of Shanghai and then Hong Kong Disneyland, not to mention numerous movie theaters that would be playing Disney movies, and it is only a matter of time before the domestic parks take the heat, as they will. According to this article from The Motley Fool, the coronavirus will have an impact on the second fiscal quarter, starting in May: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/26/will-the-deadly-coronavirus-hurt-disney.aspx. All of this, in addition to the fact that the parks are on shaky ground right now as it is. Now many plans for the parks in particular seem to be on hold.

On another forum, at least one person commented that if the coronavirus is not contained in two weeks or so, The Walt Disney Company may not survive this, that it will cripple the company beyond recovery.

Do you believe that the coronavirus will so negatively impact Disney that, again, it could be ripe for another takeover or, worse, cease to exist altogether?
It seems like you’re looking for every conceivable reason why Disney will be taken over. Almost like you’re wanting it or willing it to happen. Not sure why. But yet again you’re looking for smoke where there is no smoke to prove a fire is going to burn down the House of Mouse.

Let me just summarize how ridiculous this article is by saying this, if Disney goes down so does Hollywood and the entire Theme Park business. I wouldn’t be worried about Disney, I’d be worried about smaller players in those industries. Think Sony, Lions Gate, Six Flags, and Cedar Fair. All of which would be prime takeover targets for oh I don’t know a large media conglomerate like Disney or Comcast.

As others have said, this issue with the coronavirus will pass. Disney will be fine and can weather the storm with little to no damage to the overall company. Stop looking for reasons for the company to be taken over by someone else.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Disney survived 9/11
Disney survived the economic down turn in the 2000s, I just checked, the stock price was $14 in 2009
Disney will survive the coronavirus.
Disney will simply cut back on its projects, cut staff, and raise prices to get through this like always.
Folks will keep coming.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Disney survived 9/11
Disney survived the economic down turn in the 2000s, I just checked, the stock price was $14 in 2009
Disney will survive the coronavirus.
Disney will simply cut back on its projects, cut staff, and raise prices to get through this like always.
Folks will keep coming.
I don't know the coronavirus impacts of DLR but WDW is Central Florida's biggest employer. Many non Disney companies large and small directly and indirectly are tied to the success of WDW. Yes Disney will survive but most likely at a tremendous cost. If Disney cuts back, the guests will also be impacted also in the limited offerings of their expensive WDW vacation.
 

mharrington

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I don't know the coronavirus impacts of DLR but WDW is Central Florida's biggest employer. Many non Disney companies large and small directly and indirectly are tied to the success of WDW. Yes Disney will survive but most likely at a tremendous cost. If Disney cuts back, the guests will also be impacted also in the limited offerings of their expensive WDW vacation.
Yes, Disney did survive 9/11, but not without casualty to stock and personnel.

According to David Koenig in his book "Realityland", after 9/11, they not only cut back on staff and projects, but also on park hours, as well as temporarily shuttered restaurants and had rides operating at the barest possible minimum. Even worse, 9/11 had an impact on Disney stock.

However, the fallout from 9/11 eventually forced the company to (reluctantly, in Koenig's words) to bring out several high-profile attractions (at least at WDW, anyway) to get people to come back. While the guest situation did eventually return to normal, the stock did not. That was one reason why in 2004, Comcast tried to instigate a hostile takeover of Disney and why Roy E. Disney, who was instrumental in bringing in Eisner in 1984, left the company a second time to stage a second coup, this time to get rid of Eisner, who was ultimately replaced by Bob Iger.

So, indirectly at least, 9/11 actually did threaten Disney's existence.

If Disney cuts back, not only will the guests be impacted, but more importantly, so will the stock. Already I've heard about a $200+ million loss caused by the closure of the Chinese parks because of the coronavirus. And while the guest situation might return to normal eventually, the Disney stock may be a different story, just as it was in the period between 9/11 and Eisner's ousting. And now, Roy E. Disney is no longer around to save the company.
 
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Mouse Trap

Well-Known Member
If Disney cuts back, not only will the guests be impacted, but more importantly, so will the stock. Already I've heard about a $200+ million loss caused by the closure of the Chinese parks because of the coronavirus. And while the guest situation might return to normal eventually, the Disney stock may be a different story, just as it was in the period between 9/11 and Eisner's ousting. And now, Roy E. Disney is no longer around to save the company.
It seems to be that anyone who references the "$200M" number as some sort of massive threat to Disney has no idea how much money Disney makes each quarter or the insurance Disney has on these types of events. Disney and other companies have made movies plenty of times over the course of history that have lost $60-70M with no protection or insurance and easily made it out alive.
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
Yes, Disney did survive 9/11, but not without casualty to stock and personnel.

According to David Koenig in his book "Realityland", after 9/11, they not only cut back on staff and projects, but also on park hours, as well as temporarily shuttered restaurants and had rides operating at the barest possible minimum. Even worse, 9/11 had an impact on Disney stock.

However, the fallout from 9/11 eventually forced the company to (reluctantly, in Koenig's words) to bring out several high-profile attractions (at least at WDW, anyway) to get people to come back. While the guest situation did eventually return to normal, the stock did not. That was one reason why in 2004, Comcast tried to instigate a hostile takeover of Disney and why Roy E. Disney, who was instrumental in bringing in Eisner in 1984, left the company a second time to stage a second coup, this time to get rid of Eisner, who was ultimately replaced by Bob Iger.

So, indirectly at least, 9/11 actually did threaten Disney's existence.

If Disney cuts back, not only will the guests be impacted, but more importantly, so will the stock. Already I've heard about a $200+ million loss caused by the closure of the Chinese parks because of the coronavirus. And while the guest situation might return to normal eventually, the Disney stock may be a different story, just as it was in the period between 9/11 and Eisner's ousting. And now, Roy E. Disney is no longer around to save the company.
One big piece of information you seem to be either forgetting, intentionally ignoring, or just plain don’t understand about the situation....

Disney is not that same company as they were going into the events of 9/11 and leading to the Save Disney campaign. They have made over a dozen acquisitions since 9/11 thanks mostly to Iger totaling over $100B including the recent $71B acquisition of Fox. Meaning that not only does Disney have the clout to prevent it but also the huge war chest in order to stave off any potential would be threat of takeover. Disney could literally make licensing deals with every IP they own in order to drum up enough cash to hold off a hostile takeover. Not to mention they could get loans from banks large enough to hold off any hostile takeover.

So unless the coronavirus turns into the next Black Death and wipes out half the worlds population (which if it does we have bigger things to worry about than Disney losing enough value to become a takeover target) Disney will be fine long after the coronavirus scare is over. So pop open a Corona and chill out.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
One big piece of information you seem to be either forgetting, intentionally ignoring, or just plain don’t understand about the situation....

Disney is not that same company as they were going into the events of 9/11 and leading to the Save Disney campaign. They have made over a dozen acquisitions since 9/11 thanks mostly to Iger totaling over $100B including the recent $71B acquisition of Fox. Meaning that not only does Disney have the clout to prevent it but also the huge war chest in order to stave off any potential would be threat of takeover. Disney could literally make licensing deals with every IP they own in order to drum up enough cash to hold off a hostile takeover. Not to mention they could get loans from banks large enough to hold off any hostile takeover.

So unless the coronavirus turns into the next Black Death and wipes out half the worlds population (which if it does we have bigger things to worry about than Disney losing enough value to become a takeover target) Disney will be fine long after the coronavirus scare is over. So pop open a Corona and chill out.
Plain and simple, when Comcast made an offer during the hostile bid to take over Disney, the Disney board said the offer was too low. Every company including Disney is up for sale at the right price.
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
Plain and simple, when Comcast made an offer during the hostile bid to take over Disney, the Disney board said the offer was too low. Every company including Disney is up for sale at the right price.
And at this point that price is far too expensive for almost any one single company on the planet to afford. Disney’s parts have so much value that Disney could sell off a division to recover from any stock hit long before ever having to worry about being a takeover target.
 

It Is What It Is

Active Member
A couple thoughts from this thread:

Today, February 12, one of NPR's news stories was 'China says no new Covid19 cases reported in the last day'. Hopefully meaning China is getting a handle on this.

On Disney's conference call, they mentioned Shanghai and HK parks down for two months and the company taking a 135 million hit for that. Not a huge amount in the scheme of things. Investors and analysts are usually forgiving if they know it's coming. Disney stock is almost up a dollar today. My curiosity was how did they figure two months? I'm sure they have experts on the topic they consult for this info.

On takeovers, there are a handful of companies that could pull it off: Apple, Alphabet and Amazon. I highly doubt US regulators would let a foreign company takeover a US media/news organization (ABC), so no worries about Aramco or other wealthy Middle East companies doing so. And on the three A's: Apple, Alphabet and Amazon, Congress thinks they are too big already, every once in awhile you'll hear some Senator suggest they should be broken up. I don't think regulators would approve one of them making a play for Disney.

All that to say, I think Disney is in pretty good shape.
 
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