Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

If the current rapidly declining trend continues, the daily cases in FL will return to the pre-spike levels in 2-3 weeks so deaths will drop dramatically.

For whatever reason, FL had a particularly severe Delta spike right after it looked like vaccinations were driving the case numbers extremely low. Don't say it's because of dropping mitigations too soon because cases came down significantly after the local governments could no longer have their own measures and almost all states had dropped mitigations before the FL recent spike began.

We talk about FL like it is a low vaccination state, but it really isn't. According to the CDC, for percent of population with at least one dose, FL is #18 when you rank the states. As a ranking it doesn't look great but it isn't that much lower than other "high vaccination" states. FL is shown at 65.8%, NY is 69.6%, CA is 70.4% PA is 71.1%, NJ is 71.5%. It's not some drastic difference. That's why I wouldn't be shocked to see similar spikes in those states this winter. Hopefully the slightly higher vaccination rates will keep the outbreaks from causing as many deaths.

When the weekly report comes out today I'm going to look at deaths reported in the last week by age group. I expect (based on 77% of deaths to date) that it will still be heavily disproportionate towards the 65+ group which is 88%+ vaccinated.

The only logical explanation I’ve seen is the snow bird impact. If a large portion of the snow bird population who would have been in FL between Jan and Apr when the vaccines became readily got vaccinated and are counted in the total vaccinated number but because their primary residence is in another state are not in the total population number than FL‘s vaccination percentage may be overstated. No clue what the impact of that is, but FL is above average for 65+ and below average for under 65 which leads me to believe that’s at least part of the equation.

I think it goes beyond vaccination level too. We know that with Delta 70% vaccinated isn’t enough to slow spread alone anywhere. Many of the other states where you are predicting spikes have other mitigations still in place and beyond formal mitigations there’s also an attitude from the population and a tone set from the top. I can see the difference in attitudes between the people I know who live in FL and TX and the people in PA, NY and NJ. It’s a generalization and can be rather subtle, but I think when the dust settles on covid we may actually discover that those subtle, little things had a bigger impact than we thought and possibly even bigger than public mandates.

 

[DisneyCane]

The only logical explanation I’ve seen is the snow bird impact. If a large portion of the snow bird population who would have been in FL between Jan and Apr when the vaccines became readily got vaccinated and are counted in the total vaccinated number but because their primary residence is in another state are not in the total population number than FL‘s vaccination percentage may be overstated. No clue what the impact of that is, but FL is above average for 65+ and below average for under 65 which leads me to believe that’s at least part of the equation.

I think it goes beyond vaccination level too. We know that with Delta 70% vaccinated isn’t enough to slow spread alone anywhere. Many of the other states where you are predicting spikes have other mitigations still in place and beyond formal mitigations there’s also an attitude from the population and a tone set from the top. I can see the difference in attitudes between the people I know who live in FL and TX and the people in PA, NY and NJ. It’s a generalization and can be rather subtle, but I think when the dust settles on covid we may actually discover that those subtle, little things had a bigger impact than we thought and possibly even bigger than public mandates.

The numbers in FL's report are residents only so that removes the snowbird impact. As of now, the CDC says 14.1 million with at least one shot and the FL report from last Friday had 13.3. There will likely be 125k-250k new residents added to the report today so probably around 600k snowbirds vaccinated in FL that show up in the CDC data (in the numerator but not the denominator) but aren't here now.

As far as the attitude/vaccination combo goes, Broward County, where I live, had 79% eligible vaccinated as of last week's report. As far as attitude goes, me and my fellow non-mask wearers are a very low percentage of people that I see at grocery stores or Walmart. When I get gas at Costco I still see a noticeable number of people put a mask on before getting out of their vehicle to pump gas outside. On last week's report, Broward still had 361 per 100k cases for the week (51 per 100k per day). That's still a lot higher than NY, NJ or PA.

Next door to the south, Miami-Dade had 89% of eligible vaccinated (amazing considering the extremely high percentage of the black and Hispanic population). I can't speak to the mitigation attitudes there because I've only entered the county for an outdoor football game in the past few months. However, the cases per 100k were 333 on last week's report. Again, significantly higher than NY, NJ or PA.

I don't know if data is available for hospitalizations by county to determine if those very highly vaccinated counties see a significant decrease in hospitalizations even with high case numbers.

 

[GoofGoof]

The numbers in FL's report are residents only so that removes the snowbird impact. As of now, the CDC says 14.1 million with at least one shot and the FL report from last Friday had 13.3. There will likely be 125k-250k new residents added to the report today so probably around 600k snowbirds vaccinated in FL that show up in the CDC data (in the numerator but not the denominator) but aren't here now.

As far as the attitude/vaccination combo goes, Broward County, where I live, had 79% eligible vaccinated as of last week's report. As far as attitude goes, me and my fellow non-mask wearers are a very low percentage of people that I see at grocery stores or Walmart. When I get gas at Costco I still see a noticeable number of people put a mask on before getting out of their vehicle to pump gas outside. On last week's report, Broward still had 361 per 100k cases for the week (51 per 100k per day). That's still a lot higher than NY, NJ or PA.

Next door to the south, Miami-Dade had 89% of eligible vaccinated (amazing considering the extremely high percentage of the black and Hispanic population). I can't speak to the mitigation attitudes there because I've only entered the county for an outdoor football game in the past few months. However, the cases per 100k were 333 on last week's report. Again, significantly higher than NY, NJ or PA.

I don't know if data is available for hospitalizations by county to determine if those very highly vaccinated counties see a significant decrease in hospitalizations even with high case numbers.

Miami-Dade has 89% of eligible citizens vaccinated. We’ve just heard for pages and pages how poor and urban areas have been ignored and laughed at and nobody in those places is vaccinated.

 

[DisneyCane]

Miami-Dade has 89% of eligible citizens vaccinated. We’ve just heard for pages and pages how poor and urban areas have been ignored and laughed at and nobody in those places is vaccinated.

It's definitely an outlier. It's also "lighter blue" than most similar demographic counties. It breaks ethnic, socioeconomic and political vaccination trends. New case positivity was still 6.5% the week leading up to last Friday's report so it indicates that the bar for "enough" vaccinated is very high.

 

[Lilofan]

Miami-Dade has 89% of eligible citizens vaccinated. We’ve just heard for pages and pages how poor and urban areas have been ignored and laughed at and nobody in those places is vaccinated.

I'm surprised but happy in the Miami Dade, FL percentages. There are areas of Miami Dade County that are so dangerous ( Overtown, Liberty City, Opa Locka ) I wouldn't even want to venture even during the daytime. However these inner city areas turn out some incredible D1 college football players some making it to the NFL.

 

[DCBaker]

Here is the article from Fox35 Orlando -

Disney World workers to march against company vaccine mandate

"We understand that COVID-19 is a very real health concern that we all have to take seriously," said event organizer Nick Caturano, "but many cast members have a legitimate basis for refusing vaccination."

www.fox35orlando.com

 

[sullyinMT]

Here is the article from Fox35 Orlando -

Disney World workers to march against company vaccine mandate

"We understand that COVID-19 is a very real health concern that we all have to take seriously," said event organizer Nick Caturano, "but many cast members have a legitimate basis for refusing vaccination."

www.fox35orlando.com

The "very real concerns" for not taking the vaccine are acknowledged and exempted in the policy AND in the union agreements. I hope these CM also march against their respective union leadership for buckling to pressure.

I wonder how big this group really is, and just how seriously Disney will enforce their policy. I hope they stick to their guns, even if it means further delaying the reopening of restaurants and experiences. Especially after they have received praise from the WH for being a frontrunner.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's definitely an outlier. It's also "lighter blue" than most similar demographic counties. It breaks ethnic, socioeconomic and political vaccination trends. New case positivity was still 6.5% the week leading up to last Friday's report so it indicates that the bar for "enough" vaccinated is very high.

Yes and no on the bar being high. You can’t assume nobody leaves the county and nobody comes in. So community spread isn’t limited to just residents of the county. If we get everyone to a high enough level that dynamic is eliminated.

On a related note if Miami Dade is 89% vaccinated that’s pulling the state average up since it’s the largest urban area in the state and about 12.5% of the state population. So if the state average is 65% and the largest county is 89% there must be a lot of areas well below 65% to get to that average. That could also be part of the cause of the extreme spike.

 

[ABQ]

The only logical explanation I’ve seen is the snow bird impact. If a large portion of the snow bird population who would have been in FL between Jan and Apr when the vaccines became readily got vaccinated and are counted in the total vaccinated number but because their primary residence is in another state are not in the total population number than FL‘s vaccination percentage may be overstated. No clue what the impact of that is, but FL is above average for 65+ and below average for under 65 which leads me to believe that’s at least part of the equation.

I think it goes beyond vaccination level too. We know that with Delta 70% vaccinated isn’t enough to slow spread alone anywhere. Many of the other states where you are predicting spikes have other mitigations still in place and beyond formal mitigations there’s also an attitude from the population and a tone set from the top. I can see the difference in attitudes between the people I know who live in FL and TX and the people in PA, NY and NJ. It’s a generalization and can be rather subtle, but I think when the dust settles on covid we may actually discover that those subtle, little things had a bigger impact than we thought and possibly even bigger than public mandates.

Speaking of PA, (barely, I now, but you mentioned them) what is their attitude on cases these days, as they are going nowhere, it appears but up. Highest since April?

 

[ToTBellHop]

Here is the article from Fox35 Orlando -

Disney World workers to march against company vaccine mandate

"We understand that COVID-19 is a very real health concern that we all have to take seriously," said event organizer Nick Caturano, "but many cast members have a legitimate basis for refusing vaccination."

www.fox35orlando.com

Quit.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Was this posted?

Hospital staff must swear off Tylenol, Tums to get religious vaccine exemption

Hospital CEO aims to educate staff on the full scope of what they’re claiming.

arstechnica.com

 

[DisneyCane]

The "very real concerns" for not taking the vaccine are acknowledged and exempted in the policy AND in the union agreements. I hope these CM also march against their respective union leadership for buckling to pressure.

I wonder how big this group really is, and just how seriously Disney will enforce their policy. I hope they stick to their guns, even if it means further delaying the reopening of restaurants and experiences. Especially after they have received praise from the WH for being a frontrunner.

My only issue with any of the employer policies is that they don't have an exemption for people who can be confirmed to have had a natural infection and developed antibodies. When asked about natural infection and the Israeli study he said something about that they don't know the durability of the natural protection. They don't know the durability of the vaccines either.

If it is determined that natural immunity wanes faster (which I doubt) then they can require vaccination at that point. If it is the same as the vaccines as far as duration then they should be on the same "booster" schedule that ends up recommended for the vaccines.

 

[GoofGoof]

Speaking of PA, (barely, I now, but you mentioned them) what is their attitude on cases these days, as they are going nowhere, it appears but up. Highest since April?

What state isn’t at the highest point since April? PA cases are up 34% over the past 14 days. We are still in the top 15 states for lowest cases per capita so not doing too bad compared to the National numbers. In my county our cases have been up since early August, but hospitalizations and deaths are not rising as fast. Our total number hospitalized with covid is half what it was during the April peak and 20% of the all time peak last winter.

The major difference I see is the reaction to the numbers. Schools were scheduled to open with masks optional but have gone back to masks required. Most of the people I know have returned to some limitations on their activity. Not a lock down, but more takeout food and less parties or keeping gatherings to outdoors. Even my kids were at the point this Summer where they were going to friend’s houses and playing indoors but that has mostly stopped. I don’t know if any of that matters, but I do see people reacting to the situation. On vaccinations, PA is similar to FL and some other purple states where the urban centers are highly vaccinated but the more rural counties are mostly far behind.

 

[Lilofan]

Here is the article from Fox35 Orlando -

Disney World workers to march against company vaccine mandate

"We understand that COVID-19 is a very real health concern that we all have to take seriously," said event organizer Nick Caturano, "but many cast members have a legitimate basis for refusing vaccination."

www.fox35orlando.com

The article is misleading advising walking in the middle of WDW. 12151 S Apopka Vineland is where a number of non Disney hotels and dining options are located a few minutes drive from Disney Springs.

 

[Ayla]

Quit.

I hope they're fired. They'll be surprised to find they'll have problems being hired anywhere else.

 

[GoofGoof]

My only issue with any of the employer policies is that they don't have an exemption for people who can be confirmed to have had a natural infection and developed antibodies. When asked about natural infection and the Israeli study he said something about that they don't know the durability of the natural protection. They don't know the durability of the vaccines either.

If it is determined that natural immunity wanes faster (which I doubt) then they can require vaccination at that point. If it is the same as the vaccines as far as duration then they should be on the same "booster" schedule that ends up recommended for the vaccines.

I think the biggest issue with that is there’s no standard for what level of immunity you need and how accurate lab tests are. It’s very easy to show proof of vaccination but what level of proof is required to show natural immunity. It’s harder to administer. For example, my company setup a screen on their internal website for employees that has a vaccine attestation statement and a way to upload your vaccine card. It’s very straight forward for someone from HR to look and see if the standard CDC card is attached and validate it’s real. With anti-body tests every lab will have a different form and then someone has to decide if the level is high enough. It’s a lot more to administer. I think that’s why you are seeing some companies skip the weekly testing option and go straight to vaccination mandates. If we could go back and do it all over again there would be a national database system that had everyone either vaccinated or naturally infected with over a certain level of anti-bodies. Then every employer could just use that and be done. We didn’t do that because of the hesitant who would have complained about their privacy and the government tracking them.

 

[GoofGoof]

I hope they're fired. They'll be surprised to find they'll have problems being hired anywhere else.

I don’t agree with that. I hope they all agree to be vaccinated and continue working their jobs. This isn’t supposed to be punitive. We are trying to help these people help themselves. People opposed to this have every right to protest and March against it and they are free to complain to their employer. That’s how our country works and it’s up to Disney to decide if they want to change the policy. I don’t think they will and I don’t think very many CMs will quit or be fired over it. People will eventually see the writing on the wall. Its real easy to scream and yell about taking a stand but most people don’t want to lose their job and most of the people yelling the loudest aren’t facing that choice (many are vaccinated themselves but advocating others risk losing their jobs to resist).

 

[Nubs70]

I think the biggest issue with that is there’s no standard for what level of immunity you need and how accurate lab tests are. It’s very easy to show proof of vaccination but what level of proof is required to show natural immunity. It’s harder to administer. For example, my company setup a screen on their internal website for employees that has a vaccine attestation statement and a way to upload your vaccine card. It’s very straight forward for someone from HR to look and see if the standard CDC card is attached and validate it’s real. With anti-body tests every lab will have a different form and then someone has to decide if the level is high enough. It’s a lot more to administer. I think that’s why you are seeing some companies skip the weekly testing option and go straight to vaccination mandates. If we could go back and do it all over again there would be a national database system that had everyone either vaccinated or naturally infected with over a certain level of anti-bodies. Then every employer could just use that and be done. We didn’t do that because of the hesitant who would have complained about their privacy and the government tracking them.

Very easy in both cases. You have a vaccine card or evidence of positive test. Both are recorded at your county Department of Health. Neither vaccine nor natural immunity record level of anti-bodies.

 

[GoofGoof]

Very easy in both cases. You have a vaccine card or evidence of positive test. Both are recorded at your county Department of Health. Neither vaccine nor natural immunity record level of anti-bodies.

I don’t disagree with that but that’s not what people are asking for. Many want to show proof of anti-bodies to get out of vaccination requirements. If it’s a positive test that’s easier to administer. The question is how long does that last? If the FDA recommends a booster after 8 months then do we cap it at a positive test within 8 months? I would think that would probably be the case. I think that’s a reasonable request and from posts here a few people’s companies are doing it.

 

[Ayla]

I don’t agree with that. I hope they all agree to be vaccinated and continue working their jobs. This isn’t supposed to be punitive. We are trying to help these people help themselves. People opposed to this have every right to protest and March against it and they are free to complain to their employer. That’s how our country works and it’s up to Disney to decide if they want to change the policy. I don’t think they will and I don’t think very many CMs will quit or be fired over it. People will eventually see the writing on the wall. Its real easy to scream and yell about taking a stand but most people don’t want to lose their job and most of the people yelling the loudest aren’t facing that choice (many are vaccinated themselves but advocating others risk losing their jobs to resist).

Anyone who hasn't been vaccinated by now has no intention of ever being vaccinated. If that means they lose their jobs for their choice, that's what it means.

I guess we'll see how far they're willing to test their principles when rent is due.