Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[sullyinMT]

Very easy in both cases. You have a vaccine card or evidence of positive test. Both are recorded at your county Department of Health. Neither vaccine nor natural immunity record level of anti-bodies.

To check against a repository like the county or state DoH, the entity must play nice with third party inquiry. FL explicitly denies that sharing of information.

I agree that it's easy enough to check, though. Or have employees provide the information requested. I get my flu shot every year at CVS for the $5 and then share that with the credentialing office, for example.

As to the natural immunity, @GoofGoof laid out why it's a logistical nightmare without an established titer level. Perhaps go with a time limit for natural immunity. The CDC accepts 90 days post infection for international travel reentry. Perhaps employers could adopt the same timeline, and give a buffer before initiating vaccination, say 2-3 weeks.

 

[GoofGoof]

Anyone who hasn't been vaccinated by now has no intention of ever being vaccinated. If that means they lose their jobs for their choice, that's what it means.

I guess we'll see how far they're willing to test their principles when rent is due.

Anecdotal stories, but I know multiple people who said they would never get vaccinated but ended up doing it for their job. Some may resist and force termination but most won’t and that is a really good thing.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Canada has now hit 86% of 12+ [about 75% of the total population] with a least one dose, 79% with both.

I'm now cautiously optimistic we can hit 90%, but expect that will still take some time.

 

[GoofGoof]

To check against a repository like the county or state DoH, the entity must play nice with third party inquiry. FL explicitly denies that sharing of information.

I agree that it's easy enough to check, though. Or have employees provide the information requested. I get my flu shot every year at CVS for the $5 and then share that with the credentialing office, for example.

As to the natural immunity, @GoofGoof laid out why it's a logistical nightmare without an established titer level. Perhaps go with a time limit for natural immunity. The CDC accepts 90 days post infection for international travel reentry. Perhaps employers could adopt the same timeline, and give a buffer before initiating vaccination, say 2-3 weeks.

That must be where the 90 days comes from that I’ve heard of companies using. I actually think it could make some sense to be longer. If the FDA determines that vaccinated people need a booster after 6-8 months then that should be the time frame used. In theory if vaccinated immunity is reduced enough to need a booster by 8 months than the immunity from anyone naturally infected in 2020 is probably reduced too.

 

[mmascari]

Very easy in both cases. You have a vaccine card or evidence of positive test. Both are recorded at your county Department of Health. Neither vaccine nor natural immunity record level of anti-bodies.

Since the positive test is replacing the vaccine in this case:

Was the dose received standards based like the vaccine?
Was the infection dose enough to create the same studied immune reaction response?

Proof of vaccination includes all the supporting work that went into determining what the correct dose was to create a sufficient response and confers that the recipient received the studied and approved dose. That they should therefore meet a minimum standard for an immune response and the protections that conveys.

Is a positive test able to confer that information?

If not, what would need to be done to change the test so that it could confer that information? Could it be done back in time to the old results or only go forward for new infections?

They're not conveying the same information at all today. Definitely not for people who don't even have a positive test but just think they had it.

Did some people have a reaction after having COVID that their individual protection is just as good? Probably. They cannot prove it though today. Others, not so much, and they cannot prove that they did or didn't either.

Which makes it a safer hedge to just get vaccinated and not have to determine if the prior infection was sufficient or not. If it wasn't, vaccination solves that. If it was, vaccination boosts it again, extra good. It's a win all around, less effort and a better result with less risk.

 

[sullyinMT]

That must be where the 90 days comes from that I’ve heard of companies using. I actually think it could make some sense to be longer. If the FDA determines that vaccinated people need a booster after 6-8 months then that should be the time frame used. In theory if vaccinated immunity is reduced enough to need a booster by 8 months than the immunity from anyone naturally infected in 2020 is probably reduced too.

Yeah the CDC travel requirement of 90 days is a bit older, but it's the best any company has that wants to go that route. As far as how long the immunity lasts, it's hard to quantify and is probably quite variable based on infectious load/reaction (asymptomatic vs admitted to hospital). Hopefully, somewhere in the background of all of the headlines, there are teams of people doing antibody titer studies and trying to come up with a reasonable and legitimate standard of protective immunity. Until then, uniform data-driven protection from vaccination and subsequent boosting if required, is the best standard we have.

Assuming the natural immunity protects against hospitalization and death (a number of studies point in that direction, I don't deny), then it is something that should be pursued and quantified. But that might take years we don't have in the fight against the pandemic.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah the CDC travel requirement of 90 days is a bit older, but it's the best any company has that wants to go that route. As far as how long the immunity lasts, it's hard to quantify and is probably quite variable based on infectious load/reaction (asymptomatic vs admitted to hospital). Hopefully, somewhere in the background of all of the headlines, there are teams of people doing antibody titer studies and trying to come up with a reasonable and legitimate standard of protective immunity. Until then, uniform data-driven protection from vaccination and subsequent boosting if required, is the best standard we have.

Assuming the natural immunity protects against hospitalization and death (a number of studies point in that direction, I don't deny), then it is something that should be pursued and quantified. But that might take years we don't have in the fight against the pandemic.

I’m not opposed to an exception for natural immunity from infection but I think the people fighting for that need to realize it’s a finite timeframe and they will ultimately need a vaccine at some point anyway. I don’t think most of the people pushing this agenda think of it that way. They are looking for a loophole out of vaccine requirements. I know a few people who are screaming about this right now but they were never even tested for Covid. They got sick in Spring 2020 and assume it was covid, and it likely was, but you can see the writing on the wall that if you carved out an exception for natural infection you will have people lining up swearing they had covid and insisting they get the exception without any real proof.

 

[Nubs70]

To check against a repository like the county or state DoH, the entity must play nice with third party inquiry. FL explicitly denies that sharing of information.

I agree that it's easy enough to check, though. Or have employees provide the information requested. I get my flu shot every year at CVS for the $5 and then share that with the credentialing office, for example.

As to the natural immunity, @GoofGoof laid out why it's a logistical nightmare without an established titer level. Perhaps go with a time limit for natural immunity. The CDC accepts 90 days post infection for international travel reentry. Perhaps employers could adopt the same timeline, and give a buffer before initiating vaccination, say 2-3 weeks.

There is no titer level associated with the vaccine. If there is a time limit for both I would understand. However, Fauci has recently stated in the last week or so that the CDC does not know the duration of natural immunity.

 

[mmascari]

There is no titer level associated with the vaccine. If there is a time limit for both I would understand. However, Fauci has recently stated in the last week or so that the CDC does not know the duration of natural immunity.

There's an effective dose that develops an effective response. One with reams of supporting documentation on how that dose was determined.

Proof of vaccination doesn't need to also have a titer level studied because proof of vaccination includes all of that research behind it.

Again, exactly how does an unknown quantity of natural infection show any of that supporting information?

If I ask someone to show me their skill certification document, then I can assume they poses the skills that document conveys based on my trust of the certification authority. If someone has the same skills, but learned just on youtube and through personal experiment, then I would need to ask for extra information to judge if they have the skill or not. They might, they might not, but without the standard backing them, there's now way for me to tell from just a statement.

 

[Kevin_W]

Comparative Effectiveness of Moderna...

This report describes COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations for all three vaccines, with Moderna as the most effective against hospitalization.

www.cdc.gov

"Among U.S. adults without immunocompromising conditions, vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization during March 11–August 15, 2021, was higher for the Moderna vaccine (93%) than the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (88%) and the Janssen vaccine (71%)."

 

[Nubs70]

There's an effective dose that develops an effective response. One with reams of supporting documentation on how that dose was determined.

Proof of vaccination doesn't need to also have a titer level studied because proof of vaccination includes all of that research behind it.

Again, exactly how does an unknown quantity of natural infection show any of that supporting information?

If I ask someone to show me their skill certification document, then I can assume they poses the skills that document conveys based on my trust of the certification authority. If someone has the same skills, but learned just on youtube and through personal experiment, then I would need to ask for extra information to judge if they have the skill or not. They might, they might not, but without the standard backing them, there's now way for me to tell from just a statement.

So we are now 18 months into this event and the CDC has done no research into the longevity of natural immunity?

As to.skill certificate, both certificate of vaccinated and.natural immunity come from governmental health entities, if not the same county Department of Health

 

[lazyboy97o]

I’ve seen too many people who push their natural immunity also base that on self diagnosis, sometimes we’ll into 2019. They don’t want to provide proof, just their personal declaration.

There are also false positive tests which of course was part of bogus claims that things weren’t actually as bad or cases being way over counted.

There is no evidence of a downside to vaccination after illness. It’s just another in a long list of excuses and denial.

 

[mmascari]

So we are now 18 months into this event and the CDC has done no research into the longevity of natural immunity?

I didn't look, did you? Does it matter?

You asked why one required more information and the other didn't. I answered that the reason is, the one that "doesn't require more information" comes with a huge set of of supporting information and is based on the person receiving a standard dose.

The other requires additional information beyond just "had COVID" to establish all that other information. Even if there are studies, you would still need to determine that extra information to compare to that research.

Do people normally have that extra data to compare it to the research (if there is any, and there probably is some)? If they don't actually have it, doesn't matter if the research exits or not. There's nothing to validate.

 

[BrianLo]

I don't know if data is available for hospitalizations by county to determine if those very highly vaccinated counties see a significant decrease in hospitalizations even with high case numbers.

I can speak to Canada where there is some uniformity and discrepancy.

The mid prairie provinces (Alberta, Sask) are the ones having true health care crunch with hospitals right now - there were also quite frankly zero mitigations for the last few months. Approximately 80% One dose for eligible, 70% 12+ Fully, 60% total population fully vaccinated. Which is pretty solid for North America and mediocre for Canada.

The other provinces seem to not be breaking right now have those statistics sitting about 10% higher. Almost 85-90% first dose for eligible, 80% for 12+ Fully, 70% total population fully vaccinated.

To see that big difference between the 10% jump is helpful. The looming Pediatric approval should really help all of North America. I really think when we start seeing 80, 90+% full vaccinated is when we'll really start to see some places start to exit the pandemic. It was just disheartening since the vaccines were so effective for Alpha and original COVID, there was a bit of a false sense of security that low vaccination numbers would be good enough.

 

[Lilofan]

I can speak to Canada where there is some uniformity and discrepancy.

The mid prairie provinces (Alberta, Sask) are the ones having true health care crunch with hospitals right now - there were also quite frankly zero mitigations for the last few months. Approximately 80% One dose for eligible, 70% 12+ Fully, 60% total population fully vaccinated. Which is pretty solid for North America and mediocre for Canada.

The other provinces seem to not be breaking right now have those statistics sitting about 10% higher. Almost 85-90% first dose for eligible, 80% for 12+ Fully, 70% total population fully vaccinated.

To see that big difference between the 10% jump is helpful. The looming Pediatric approval should really help all of North America. I really think when we start seeing 80, 90+% full vaccinated is when we'll really start to see some places start to exit the pandemic. It was just disheartening since the vaccines were so effective for Alpha and original COVID, there was a bit of a false sense of security that low vaccination numbers would be good enough.

These good numbers embarrass the USA which stands around 54% fully vaccinated .

 

[DCBaker]

"Florida on Friday reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 11,275 more COVID-19 cases and six deaths, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data.

In all, Florida has recorded at least 3,485,148 confirmed COVID cases and 50,817 deaths.

In the last seven days, on average, the state has added 363 deaths and 10,877 cases to the daily cumulative total, according to Herald calculations of CDC data."

"The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Friday report showed there were 9,585 COVID-19 patients reported from 255 Florida hospitals.

That’s 662 fewer patients than Thursday’s report from 253 hospitals. In Friday’s report, COVID-19 patients took up 16.51% of all inpatient hospital beds compared to 17.53% in the previous day’s reporting hospitals.

Of the people hospitalized in Florida, 2,443 people were in intensive-care units, a decrease of 69 from the previous day’s report, Herald analyses show. That represents 37.71% of the ICU beds at the 255 hospitals reporting data, compared to 38.14% the previous day."

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article254317803.html

 

[Disney Analyst]

I can speak to Canada where there is some uniformity and discrepancy.

The mid prairie provinces (Alberta, Sask) are the ones having true health care crunch with hospitals right now - there were also quite frankly zero mitigations for the last few months. Approximately 80% One dose for eligible, 70% 12+ Fully, 60% total population fully vaccinated. Which is pretty solid for North America and mediocre for Canada.

The other provinces seem to not be breaking right now have those statistics sitting about 10% higher. Almost 85-90% first dose for eligible, 80% for 12+ Fully, 70% total population fully vaccinated.

To see that big difference between the 10% jump is helpful. The looming Pediatric approval should really help all of North America. I really think when we start seeing 80, 90+% full vaccinated is when we'll really start to see some places start to exit the pandemic. It was just disheartening since the vaccines were so effective for Alpha and original COVID, there was a bit of a false sense of security that low vaccination numbers would be good enough.

just wanted to add this from the latest BC data:

From Sept. 8-14, people not fully vaccinated accounted for 76.1% of cases and from Sept. 1-14 they accounted for 86.4% of hospitalizations.

Past week cases (Sept. 8-14) – Total 4,914

• Not vaccinated: 3,347 (68.1%)
• Partially vaccinated: 391 (8.0%)
• Fully vaccinated: 1,176 (23.9%)

Past two weeks cases hospitalized (Sept. 1-14) – Total 390

• Not vaccinated: 318 (81.5%)
• Partially vaccinated: 19 (4.9%)
• Fully vaccinated: 53 (13.6%)

Past week, cases per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Sept. 8-14)

• Not vaccinated: 320.9
• Partially vaccinated: 98.6
• Fully vaccinated: 30

Past two weeks, cases hospitalized per 100,000 population after adjusting for age (Sept. 1-14)

• Not vaccinated: 44.0
• Partially vaccinated: 7.6
• Fully vaccinated: 1.2

After factoring for age, people not vaccinated are 35.7 times more likely to be hospitalized than those fully vaccinated.

 

[BrianLo]

Canada has now hit 86% of 12+ [about 75% of the total population] with a least one dose, 79% with both.

I'm now cautiously optimistic we can hit 90%, but expect that will still take some time.

We got to 85% far faster than you or I thought a couple months back! Now that there is some pressure on all provinces (especially the ones with more people to convert), I'm actually pretty confident we'll get there surprisingly soon.

Like maybe even 4 - 6 weeks.

Do I want 100%? Sure... but 90% I actually think is the correct goal.

These good numbers embarrass the USA which stands around 54% fully vaccinated .

And I did not mean to make it an embarrass the US post. Just more in terms of where the goal lines actually need to be set. The US should really be aiming for 80%+ at the end of the day. 60% is definitely not good enough (Alberta is an absolute mess, they are converting Pediatric OR's and PICU's to Covid adult ICU's as we speak). 75% of Pediatric OR's have been closed as of yesterday. They are starting to fly patients out of province to Ontario.

I do think 90% is unrealistic for the US, unfortunately. We just all know there are way more people who will never change their mind.

 

[DCBaker]

From an Orlando Sentinel reporter -

 

[BrianLo]

After factoring for age, people not vaccinated are 35.7 times more likely to be hospitalized than those fully vaccinated.

I really wonder and think the dosage spacing helped us out (i.e. months in between doses).

We're seeing way better efficacy than a lot of other countries.