Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Enough with the "cooking the books" or "playing with numbers" narrative. Reporting deaths based on the date of occurrence is accurate and shows the impact of each spike accurately. It just takes a few weeks for "the numbers" to show up in the chart. Charting them based on report date is inaccurate. Doing it that way makes it look like an issue is still ongoing when the spike has subsided.

If 500 deaths are reported today but 480 of them died in July, why would it be better to report today as 500? All it does is stand out as "worse" on a daily report.

The severity of the current outbreak is best illustrated by the data on hospitalizations which are reported in real time. Not to veer into politics but there is a reason that the Commissioner of Agriculture is the one who "called them out" and it isn't selfless and altruistic.

The key is the sudden change in how they report, just as deaths spike, to create a false impression that deaths are declining.

It very well may be a legitimate way to record deaths — when done this way consistently. When abruptly switching counting methods in order to give a false impression, that’s a different story.

 

[Disney Analyst]

“ Saxinger said it seems contradictory that some are so desperate to access an unproven drug like ivermectin that they're turning to veterinary forms of the medication, while uptake of the thoroughly studied, Health Canada-approved COVID-19 vaccines has stalled in some regions like Alberta. “

 

[DisneyCane]

Eh, the current value is pretty bad. They generally use above 5% as bad, below as better, and somewhere under 2.5% as good. In the 15%-20% range, the stats are practically useless for knowing the true total cases.


How much backfill to collect?

I saved the CDC data set when it was through 08/22/2021 and again when it was through 08/30/2021 for both cases and deaths. Both of them have backfilled data for dates prior to 8/22/2021, but it's not equivalent for the two metrics.

Based on the differences, the death lag is really obvious. Basically, looking at the daily death charts today on 9/1/21, all the data through 8/1/21 isn't changing much anymore, just one or two here and there. All the data from 8/1/21 through 8/30/21 is very different between the two death data sets in a meaningful way. So, we can look at the daily death charts, but only as of 30 days in the past not through today. People have been saying that for ages through, it's why the last 2 weeks on the death chart always looks like a huge decline.

View attachment 583910

For the case chart, it was backfilled too, but the delta between the data sets was net 96 cases between 1/23/20 and 8/22/21. Some days up, some down, with the max additional 66 cases one day. There must have been a lot of days reduced too, since when I did this between 8/25 and 8/22, the 8/25 data set had 582 extra cases vs the 8/22 set. None of these numbers are different enough to make a material change to the curve shape. They're spread out over enough time, they can barely even shift the entire curve up and down. Compared to the total cases over the entire span of time, it's barely anything. But, compared to looking at just the latest daily new number, some days it is a significant amount.

So, there is a backfill happening, even on cases.
It's doesn't look large enough to change the curve shape.
It may have a slight impact on the curve height, but not huge. At least not between data sets a week apart.
It does hide some data in the past. Enough that the most current daily number is probably misleading.
I'll need to wait for the CDC to publish FL data through 9/22/21 before I can compare the data through 8/22/21 on what's known a month apart instead of a just a week to see how it holds up then.

Based on that so far, you may have technically lost the bet, but not in the spirit of of having a meaningful historic impact. I don't think anyone could collect it from you, yet.

The backfill to collect on the bet will be if there is more than 5% cases added to a day unless it is something announced due to a data glitch or reporting issue from a lab.

Also to note, as you mentioned, the deaths have always been reported by date of death on the official dashboard (when it existed) and on the official daily (now weekly) pdf reports. The only thing that changed is the method of reporting to the CDC.

 

[DisneyCane]

The key is the sudden change in how they report, just as deaths spike, to create a false impression that deaths are declining.

It very well may be a legitimate way to record deaths — when done this way consistently. When abruptly switching counting methods in order to give a false impression, that’s a different story.

As I said in my response above, since day 1, FL has charted the deaths by date of death on the official dashboard and the official reports. The only thing that changed was how it is reported to the CDC. It is possible that there was a technical limitation and the only way they were able to report to the CDC was by date reported and now that has been resolved so they report by date of death like they always have for data published by Florida.

You (and others) just jump to the conclusion that the reason for the change is to give a false impression of declining deaths. To what end? There's no election for over a year. The total will be the total by the time it affects anybody in charge.

To draw conclusions about the current situation most people focus on the case numbers above all else anyway. At the beginning of the current spike there were few deaths reported each day. That certainly didn't mean that the spike wasn't a concern.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Saxinger said it seems contradictory that some are so desperate to access an unproven drug like ivermectin that they're turning to veterinary forms of the medication, while uptake of the thoroughly studied, Health Canada-approved COVID-19 vaccines has stalled in some regions like Alberta. “

It’s mind boggling to me that people won’t take an approved vaccine but will take an unapproved veterinary drug based on nothing but rumor and distrust.

I’m as distrustful of the gov and politicians as anyone but to believe this is a worldwide conspiracy, involving politicians and scientists from hundreds of countries, not to mention millions of nurses and doctors across the globe, is absolute lunacy.

It’s truly mind boggling, and alarming, that people now trust social media more than doctors and scientists.

 

[danlb_2000]

“ Saxinger said it seems contradictory that some are so desperate to access an unproven drug like ivermectin that they're turning to veterinary forms of the medication, while uptake of the thoroughly studied, Health Canada-approved COVID-19 vaccines has stalled in some regions like Alberta. “

I remember the same thing happened with Hydroxychloroquine, there was a run on it for treating COVID which made it harder to get for people who really needed it.

 

[Ayla]

Almost a month into school and cases are rising. Just for curiosity, I compared our county positive cases to all the schools in our county reporting cases from the Indiana site. 3 schools do not report, the remaining do. 24% of the positive cases in the last 30 days are students, that doesn't include teachers or staff. A majority is from middle and high schools. We've been in session since August 8th, so not even a month yet. Still no mask requirement, distancing, etc. No communication from the schools. DD12 says there are kids out in her classes but doesn't know if covid positive or just close contact.

The district my kids graduated from has been in school a week today. There are currently 5 active cases, with at least double that expected to be announced in the next few days once testing results come back. What a 100% predictable cluster.

Just double-checked the school dashboard, there are now 9 positive student cases K-12 and 8 other students in quarantine.

 

[JohnByers]

There are 19 active cases and 44 quarantined after 8 days at the HS I teach at...

 

[Lilofan]

“ Saxinger said it seems contradictory that some are so desperate to access an unproven drug like ivermectin that they're turning to veterinary forms of the medication, while uptake of the thoroughly studied, Health Canada-approved COVID-19 vaccines has stalled in some regions like Alberta. “

When some are confused and or have questions on a medical issue, they seek out social media as their friend and answers to their questions which results in misinformation. Back in the day some with the same issue would make an appt with their local doctor for a consultation or consult with the local pharmacist for free.

 

[Kevin_W]

The district my kids graduated from has been in school a week today. There are currently 5 active cases, with at least double that expected to be announced in the next few days once testing results come back. What a 100% predictable cluster.

Just double-checked the school dashboard, there are now 9 positive student cases K-12 and 8 other students in quarantine.

We have a pretty big school district at ~16,000 students. Btu after 1.5 weeks of school we have 42 students an 9 staff cases. That feels like a lot.

I'm lucky my daughter is vaccinated, which takes her chances of infection down. My brother with a 3rd-grade kid is reasonably nervous.

 

[disneygeek90]

Orange County public schools have 3909 confirmed cases in the first month of school (3185 students, 707 employees).

For the entirety of the 2020-2021 school year, there were 7379 (5072 students, 2216 employees).

Not to mention, 1500 active quarantines at the moment.

 

[correcaminos]

Unfortunately ours has a count from before school started but we seem on track for the about the same number of cases based on the August numbers as we did last year as a whole. We are required to mask in school and vaccinated no longer have to quarantine.

Oddly we had our 2nd quarantine notice and my kid cannot figure out who it would have been. No one anywhere near to him was out Monday and Tuesday. One kid way across the classroom but that was it. Maybe they were off on how close the kid was to him.

 

[Kevin_W]

Orange County public schools have 3909 confirmed cases in the first month of school (3185 students, 707 employees).

For the entirety of the 2020-2021 school year, there were 7379 (5072 students, 2216 employees).

Not to mention, 1500 active quarantines at the moment.

Orange County School has 206058 students. Os I retract my claim that our 16,000 is a fairly large school district!

 

[DisneyCane]

Orange County public schools have 3909 confirmed cases in the first month of school (3185 students, 707 employees).

For the entirety of the 2020-2021 school year, there were 7379 (5072 students, 2216 employees).

Not to mention, 1500 active quarantines at the moment.

The entirety of the 2020-2021 school year, with respect to COVID I don't think was even 3 months. The first real spike with rampant community spread in Florida didn't start until the middle of June so school was barely in session during a time of high community spread.

Compared to now, it's Six Flags to Disney World.

 

[disneygeek90]

The entirety of the 2020-2021 school year, with respect to COVID I don't think was even 3 months. The first real spike with rampant community spread in Florida didn't start until the middle of June so school was barely in session during a time of high community spread.

Compared to now, it's Six Flags to Disney World.

The school year I'm speaking about is the one from ~August 2020 - May 2021. Covid was very much around, especially during the holidays.

 

[Patcheslee]

We have a pretty big school district at ~16,000 students. Btu after 1.5 weeks of school we have 42 students an 9 staff cases. That feels like a lot.

I'm lucky my daughter is vaccinated, which takes her chances of infection down. My brother with a 3rd-grade kid is reasonably nervous.

We're tiny with 6000 students across the whole county. 2 public districts and a private district.

 

[DisneyCane]

The school year I'm speaking about is the one from ~August 2020 - May 2021. Covid was very much around, especially during the holidays.

I realized a minute ago that is what you meant. I don't know why I was thinking only the March - June 2020 time frame.

 

[Jrb1979]

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6160728

Here are the places that proof of vaccination will be required in Ontario starting September 22. There is no religious or medical exceptions.

• Restaurants and bars (excluding outdoor patios, delivery and takeout).
  
  
• Nightclubs, including outdoor areas.
• Meeting and event spaces like banquet halls and convention centres.
• Sports and fitness facilities and gyms, with the exception of youth recreational sports.
• Sporting events.
• Casinos, bingo halls and gaming establishments.
• Concerts, music festivals, theatres and cinemas.

 

[DisneyCane]

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6160728

Here are the places that proof of vaccination will be required in Ontario starting September 22. There is no religious or medical exceptions.

• Restaurants and bars (excluding outdoor patios, delivery and takeout).
  
  
• Nightclubs, including outdoor areas.
• Meeting and event spaces like banquet halls and convention centres.
• Sports and fitness facilities and gyms, with the exception of youth recreational sports.
• Sporting events.
• Casinos, bingo halls and gaming establishments.
• Concerts, music festivals, theatres and cinemas.

Are there still other mandated mitigations in place there?

 

[DCBaker]

"Florida on Wednesday reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 19,048 more COVID-19 cases added Tuesday, according to Miami Herald calculations of CDC data. The state also reported 10 new deaths.

In all, Florida has recorded at least 3,269,502 confirmed COVID cases and 44,571 deaths statewide. In the past seven days, on average, the state has added 263 deaths and 19,908 cases each day, according to Herald calculations."

"There were 15,177 people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida on Wednesday, according to data reported to the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services from 232 Florida hospitals. That is 505 fewer patients than Tuesday’s COVID patient population.

COVID-19 patients also accounted for 27.81% of all hospital patients.

Of those hospitalized in Florida, 3,315 people were in intensive care unit beds, a decrease of 111. That represents 49.89% of the state’s ICU hospital beds from 231 hospitals reporting data."

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article253918848.html