Have fun, mask up and bring ponchos for the afternoon daily rains!
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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That’s what I forgot to get - ponchos! Thanks for the reminder.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I would hope that when they are investigating these outbreaks of breakthrough infections they are taking a deep dive into other things that can potentially be in common. Are there medications in common that the people involved are taking? What about supplements? Do they use any illegal substances? Did they take Tylenol as a prophylactic prior to getting vaccinated?
In the case of the story from @Tony the Tigger it could be as simple as a home with poor ventilation and a super spreader unvaccinated person with extremely high viral load. However, I think the CDC should be studying these type of breakthrough outbreaks in great detail to see if anything can be learned from them.
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
More and more I am wondering if this pandemic will actually end anytime soon. If 21k cases and increases in hospitalizations won't significantly move the needle on vaccinations in Florida and other lagging areas, I do not know what will.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Excellent article for both sides of the debate of vaccinations and other things relating to Covid and the big divide in this country. Actually starts off with a Disneyland cast member on not being vaccinated. Must read.
The COVID culture war: At what point should personal freedom yield to the common good?
America's debate over pandemic mask and vaccine mandates hinges on an age-old dilemma: When does personal liberty yield to the public interest?
www.google.com
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Anti-vaxxs needs to stop and TAKE A VACCINE BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE.Excellent article for both sides of the debate of vaccinations and other things relating to Covid and the big divide in this country. Actually starts off with a Disneyland cast member on not being vaccinated. Must read.
The COVID culture war: At what point should personal freedom yield to the common good?
America's debate over pandemic mask and vaccine mandates hinges on an age-old dilemma: When does personal liberty yield to the public interest?www.google.com
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
The needle has moved. Over twice as many FL residents got first doses this past week than the prior week. I don't know if it will move the needle enough but it has definitely moved it.
It is likely that this spike will be past the peak by the time people who got first shots last week are fully vaccinated but if enough people are motivated to get vaccinated now, it could prevent a future spike.
Thanks to delta you have two choices: vaccine or disease. If you pick the former you have a fraction of a percent chance of a (nearly always) transient side effect. You also have a chance at still getting the mild disease, but if you do your chances of it being serious is infantessmal.
If you choose the latter you have a 1 in 100 chance of dying, 1 in 20 chance of requiring hospitalization and a bill in the thousands of dollars, potentially leaving you with permanent side effects, and a 100% chance of having to call in sick to work for 2 weeks. Your choice, but thanks to the infectability of delta you will get the disease, it’s only a matter of time.
The only reason this hasn’t been said out loud is the fear of panic in parents, kids vaccines need to be rolled out ASAP.
If you choose the latter you have a 1 in 100 chance of dying, 1 in 20 chance of requiring hospitalization and a bill in the thousands of dollars, potentially leaving you with permanent side effects, and a 100% chance of having to call in sick to work for 2 weeks. Your choice, but thanks to the infectability of delta you will get the disease, it’s only a matter of time.
The only reason this hasn’t been said out loud is the fear of panic in parents, kids vaccines need to be rolled out ASAP.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Excellent article for both sides of the debate of vaccinations and other things relating to Covid and the big divide in this country. Actually starts off with a Disneyland cast member on not being vaccinated. Must read.
The COVID culture war: At what point should personal freedom yield to the common good?
America's debate over pandemic mask and vaccine mandates hinges on an age-old dilemma: When does personal liberty yield to the public interest?www.google.com
Although the focus is on the anti-vaxxers the larger issue, in general, is young people under 40. Look at the latest FL stats.
20-29 only 41% with at least one dose, 30-39 only 49%. Before trying to deal with the 20% of hard core anti-vaxxers, let's deal with the 39% of 20-29 year olds and 31% of 30-39 year olds that haven't gotten shots but aren't anti-vaxxers. They are the bigger problem right now.
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
It's anecdotal, and obviously the world doesn't revolve around me, but I have a close friend who can't get vaccinated as he's had severe reactions to other vaccines in the past. And now because of Delta, I may have to limit contact with him, yet again.
I am sick of adjusting and pivoting. I got two months of normal from vaccination and now we're in round 8, no thanks to many selfish folks.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I agree with the sentiment but I don't think that nearly 100% of the unvaccinated will end up getting infected. For whatever reason, viral spread doesn't seem to work that way, at least in the medium term.
I guess if COVID becomes endemic and is around forever, eventually everybody who doesn't keep current with vaccinations will get infected at some point but it is unlikely to happen within a year or two.
I don't pretend to know why it works this way but even Fauci described the outbreak curve and what it looks like back at the beginning. Each wave seems to follow a bell shaped curve and eventually ends.
0.5% of the Florida population got Covid this week. If the CDC is right and the R0 is 8 then we can expect 4% of the population to get sick over the next two weeks from Covid, and then the following 2 weeks that number balloons to 32%. That doesn’t count the people who get symptomatic after getting the disease from a person diagnosed before this week, just from last weeks case. This will happen until peak, which is again 2-3 weeks away. When you figure that the unvaccinated make up a minority of the population, 100% infected with Covid for the unvaxxed is not far off, especially if the peak is 3-4 weeks away. That’s why this is so scary.
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
Those numbers are mind boggling.
but many in Florida have already been infected prior to this surge; can they be infected by Delta, if they already had Alpha or another variant? Or the jury is still out?
They are far less likely, at some point the virus is going to run into a wall where it can’t find enough unprotected hosts and case numbers will drop dramatically at the same rate it went up. That’s peak, we just don’t know when that’s going to happen.
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
See below study. Convalescent plasma ( From people who already had it) is 4-6 fold less effective in neutralization against delta ( and beta ), but if they are also vaccinated the numbers, according to the study, are good for neutralization.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
Based upon India (barely vaccinated) and the UK (pretty well vaccinated), the spread doesn't accelerate like that in reality. No matter what the R0 is, the R value eventually goes under one during the course of an outbreak. Whatever strain was dominant in FL last summer had an R0 over one but the cases reached a peak and started declining. No mitigation was added during the spike.
It did happen that fast it just stopped because they hit peak. We don’t know when that will happen, hopefully before the number reach ludicrous speed. Look at the curves of waves in UK, India, and here and compare them to non delta waves, the slope of those parabalas are far steeper. That means that there are far more acutely I’ll people at one time walking around. The slope of those parabalas is how we estimate R0.
Bob Harlem
Well-Known Member
Bring in the R1 estimates, and it's more likely peak early to mid next week, not 3-4 weeks from now.
Remember my quotes were two week intervals, as on average an infected person is contagious for about 2 weeks.
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