Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

It did happen that fast it just stopped because they hit peak. We don’t know when that will happen, hopefully before the number reach ludicrous speed. Look at the curves of waves in UK, India, and here and compare them to non delta waves, the slope of those parabalas are far steeper. That means that there are far more acutely I’ll people at one time walking around. The slope of those parabalas is how we estimate R0.

But the point is that they did hit a peak. The current FL spike is tracking the UK spike very closely (at about 84% of the daily cases). Assuming this continues the peak will be a little under 40k cases per day. That's nowhere near high enough for 32% of the population to be infected in a week (it's around 1.3%).

Bring in the R1 estimates, and it's more likely peak early to mid next week, not 3-4 weeks from now.

I still predict 8/21 based on the UK. A little under 3 weeks. Maybe FL accelerates and peaks higher but sooner. I guess we'll have to see but so far it is behaving just like the UK spike.

 

[ABQ]

But the point is that they did hit a peak. The current FL spike is tracking the UK spike very closely (at about 84% of the daily cases). Assuming this continues the peak will be a little under 40k cases per day. That's nowhere near high enough for 32% of the population to be infected in a week (it's around 1.3%).

I still predict 8/21 based on the UK. A little under 3 weeks. Maybe FL accelerates and peaks higher but sooner. I guess we'll have to see but so far it is behaving just like the UK spike.

Visual of the UK scenario for those who may not be aware.

Covid cases, 1 week trend:

Hospitalizations, updated through 7/28, showing just the past 2 months which gives the picture when the rate began to increase.

 

[correcaminos]

Those numbers are mind boggling.

but many in Florida have already been infected prior to this surge; can they be infected by Delta, if they already had Alpha or another variant? Or the jury is still out?

Jury is still out, but it does suggest that an Alpha infection is not as good against a Delta reinfection as other variants. Reinfections do occur. Alpha seems to give less protection for Delta, but like vaccination, it seems rare and if so less likely to be as sick. So that's good at least.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Earlier today this was said

It’s obvious that tourist destinations with no restrictions have been causing hospitals to fill up. Orlando, Branson, Las Vegas.

What’s your solution? Just let the hospitals film up

I don't see any reason for the parks to close. They've been open for over a year. We know how people can be relatively safe - vaccines, masking, and distancing. The answer to people refusing to get vaccinated or mask on the honor system is mandatory masking, not closing the parks. There may be some wisdom in dialing back capacity to foster distancing, but that's Disney's problem.

Shutdowns aren't going to happen again unless a dangerous variant crops up that evades vaccines. We *know* that vaccines keeps people out of hospitals. We *know* masking and distancing reduces the transmission threat. Those are the preventative steps, not shutting things down.

You don't put people out of work for petulant "my freedoms" arguments. Instead, you take away their choice and make life difficult for them by enforcing rules we know work.

 

[Epcotfan21]

Less than 1% of fully vaccinated people experience a breakthrough Covid-19 infection, analysis finds

The Delta variant is wreaking havoc through much of the US, and an internal CDC document shows it spreads as easily as chickenpox. Follow here for the latest news.

www.cnn.com

I knew it was a complete joke that the CDC used the Cap Code breakthroughs as if they would apply to the majority of America.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Using negative consequences to force compliance for the public good isn't something that's out of bounds for a democracy. The government doesn't suggest you pay your taxes, drive the speed limit, register for the draft, wear a seat belt or not pollute. I wouldn't go so far as to make non-vaccination a criminal offense, but there needs to a stick to go along with the carrot, because the carrot alone is not working.

 

[dreday3]

Another feel good if you're vaccinated story!

Less than 1% of fully vaccinated people experience a breakthrough Covid-19 infection, analysis finds

The Delta variant is wreaking havoc through much of the US, and an internal CDC document shows it spreads as easily as chickenpox. Follow here for the latest news.

www.cnn.com

Less than 1% of fully vaccinated people experience a breakthrough Covid-19 infection, analysis finds​

From CNN’s Deidre McPhillips

Less than 1% of fully vaccinated people experienced a breakthrough infection, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of official state data.
The federal government only reports data on breakthrough infections that result in hospitalization or death.
According to the latest data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, less than 0.004% of people who have been fully vaccinated against Covid-19 experienced a breakthrough case resulting in hospitalization, and less than 0.001% have died from the disease. That’s about 6,600 severe breakthrough cases out of more than 163 million fully vaccinated people.
But the KFF analysis shows that breakthrough infections of any kind are also extremely rare.
About half of states report data on Covid-19 breakthrough cases, and in each of those states, less than 1% of fully vaccinated people had a breakthrough infection, ranging from 0.01% in Connecticut to 0.9% in Oklahoma.
Also, more than 90% of cases – and more than 95% of hospitalizations and deaths – have been among unvaccinated people, according to the KFF analysis. In most states, more than 98% of cases were among the unvaccinated.

 

[LaughingGravy]

This is a pandemic, an ongoing situation changing with variants and 620K dead in the US alone, not counting all the other survivors with serious bouts and/or long term side effects.
Economies of multiple countries were shut down and many small businesses decimated and a lot of people in learning environments of all types, from K- college also turned upside down.
The lives of many families have been permanently affected.
Households have been turned upside down with people working from home, where there are benefits and disadvantages, but it probably would not have happened if it weren't for the lock-downs.

Enter vaccines that can make the difference to effectively end this, and ARE PROVEN at this point.

What's pretty disgusting are the willful holdouts without a true medical exemption reason who have every piece of evidence in front of them that vaccines can save lives, and refuse to help (it's a team effort) get us back to a better place while crying about "individual choice" and "my rights", and "I don't know what's in the vaccine", and "God will take care of me", who seem to have little or no knowledge of (or refuse to recognize) the science of viruses, how they spread and how they can have effects on other people outside of themselves, or even worse, not care at all in the name of one or more or a variation of one of the reasons in quotes above.

Yes, it's time to start making life difficult for them.

 

[SamusAranX]

Using negative consequences to force compliance for the public good isn't something that's out of bounds for a democracy. The government doesn't suggest you pay your taxes, drive the speed limit, register for the draft, wear a seat belt or not pollute. I wouldn't go so far as to make non-vaccination a criminal offense, but there needs to a stick to go along with the carrot, because the carrot alone is not working.

Denial of health coverage of any COVID related care. Watch how fast people sign up for the jab.

 

[Lilofan]

Denial of health coverage of any COVID related care. Watch how fast people sign up for the jab.

That would send a rise up to some but if you want Central FL covid vaccination rates to show improvement , get Universal to issue a requirement that all guests buying a ticket to UO's Halloween Horror Nights that they need to show proof of vaccination.

 

[Parker in NYC]

But that Mardi Gras ship! Yipes. Makes a crowded day at MK look only somewhat foolhardy.

 

[disneygeek90]

That would send a rise up to some but if you want Central FL covid vaccination rates to show improvement , get Universal to issue a requirement that all guests buying a ticket to UO's Halloween Horror Nights that they need to show proof of vaccination.

How can they do that given the current orders issued in the state?

 

[DCBaker]

Orange County DOH shares weekend data -

 

[RobbinsDad]

Yes, it's time to start making life difficult for them.

I think Delta may be doing that without our intervention. I live in a state with an appalling vaxx rate, and the increase in hospitalizations among the young and otherwise healthy due to Delta has gotten folks here to rethink their stance (which was mostly a political one). I personally know several people who have gotten their first jab in the past week, including some teenagers who convinced their parents to let them get vaccinated before the start of school. https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/31/us/us-vaccination-rates-rising-southern-states/index.html

 

[ABQ]

Orange County DOH shares weekend data -

Thanks for always posting these reports. Do know if the test counts area available for the past few days? Was testing way down over the weekend or did positivity rates actually decline?

 

[Heelz2315]

Watched Face the Nation yesterday. Dr. Scott Gottleib and Dr Alroy-Preiss among others were guests discussing breakthrough infections. Of all the breakthrough cases they have data on only 10% transmit to one other person. Those who transmit to more than one is a smaller number. That's VERY low, makes me wonder what those numbers will look like when expanded further. I have a feeling the CDC will take a further beating if it comes out we're masking vaccinated people for 10% of breakthrough cases. That's a VERY low number.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Watched Face the Nation yesterday. Dr. Scott Gottleib and Dr Alroy-Preiss among others were guests discussing breakthrough infections. Of all the breakthrough cases they have data on only 10% transmit to one other person. Those who transmit to more than one is a smaller number. That's VERY low, makes me wonder what those numbers will look like when expanded further. I have a feeling the CDC will take a further beating if it comes out we're masking vaccinated people for 10% of breakthrough cases. That's a VERY low number.

10% is still enough for me. Not a scientist, full disclosure.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Also, let’s be honest. No matter what the CDC does, the same people are going to criticize them, before during and after they do anything. Just like California. That is, until California has a new governor - and I can’t wait to see if under different “representation” they’ll suddenly be commended.

 

[DCBaker]

Thanks for always posting these reports. Do know if the test counts area available for the past few days? Was testing way down over the weekend or did positivity rates actually decline?

Test counts haven't updated been updated by the CDC (it isn't reported over the weekend by Florida - they will be backfilled in). There were still very long lines over the weekend at Barnett Park.

 

[danlb_2000]

Denial of health coverage of any COVID related care. Watch how fast people sign up for the jab.

A lot of the people who are resisting the vaccine don't think that they are at any risk from the virus, so I don't know if this would make any difference.