Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[lazyboy97o]

I'm also not against vaccination or even against the COVID vaccine. I am against needlessly vaccinating a young child for something they aren't at risk of serious illness for.

But you have bought into and are spreading anti-vaccine misinformation.

 

[Disney Glimpses]

Just so we are clear, you are all advocating for the unequivocal safety of a vaccine that is still being trialed (young children). Think about that.

None of you know anything about the safety of this vaccine in regards to young children and nor do I.

 

[danlb_2000]

I mean, more untrue stuff. I dunno where you guys get this stuff. Are you just making it up?

Example: Very rarely, long-term seizures, coma, lowered consciousness, or permanent brain damage may happen after DTaP vaccination.

It happens and long after trials complete.

Not untrue at all, here is a good source to learn more:

 

[Phil12]

The objective is to get as many people as possible to take the vaccine. Therefore, if some people in the USA refuse the vaccine, it's a good idea to find people who are willing to take the vaccine:

Biden administration to buy 500 million Pfizer coronavirus vaccine doses to donate to the world

 

[ImperfectPixie]

hmm, tough to know just how much to trust that map on the CDC site though. California with zero new cases?

I didn't notice that but definitely a reason to be careful with the data interpretation. Maybe there was a reporting glitch. The FL number that was posted yesterday seemed plausible in comparison to recent data.

If you click on the "Regional" menu, you can see a map of each state and get new daily cases as well as new daily cases per 100,000 for each county in whatever state you're viewing.

Just so we are clear, you are all advocating for the unequivocal safety of a vaccine that is still being trialed (young children). Think about that.

None of you know anything about the safety of this vaccine in regards to young children and nor do I.

They know as of right now that the vaccine is safe for humans. The current trials are to nail down dosages for the younger age groups.

Stop with the anti-vaccine rhetoric...because everything you're arguing is exactly that - rhetoric spread by anti-vaxxers that has become embedded into mainstream thought by people like Jenny McCarthy.

 

[DCBaker]

Here's the current vaccination status for Orange County via Mayor Demings (Orange County DOH is now reporting the vaccinated percentage from ages 12+) -

 

[CosmicRays]

A friend who lost his sense of smell for a time (not COVID related) described it as having a disability.

Its actually surprising how much we rely on those two senses together for daily things. Back when I went through chemo I lost all sense of smell and my taste was basically all medicine and it actually was the most persistently annoying part of chemo for me. It lasted about 6 months after chemo ended. I was elated when it came back. When I went through Covid last year and lost my smell and taste again I had flashbacks to chemo and had maybe a partial panic attack for a short time. Of course in the large scheme of things I realized I could live without them but it definitely effects more than people realize.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Don't know if this was already posted, but it's good news for Canadians hoping to go to WDW or other places soon:

Feds aiming to drop hotel quarantine requirement in July for travellers fully vaccinated against COVID-19

Those able to enter Canada may soon be able to skip a stay at a government approved quarantine hotel.

www.cp24.com

"Federal officials said Wednesday that they are hoping to have a system in place by early July that will allow people to quarantine at home until they receive a negative result from a COVID-19 test taken upon landing.

Federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said the government is not changing the rules around who can enter the country, but the change would make things easier for those who are eligible to enter Canada."

 

[Jrb1979]

Don't know if this was already posted, but it's good news for Canadians hoping to go to WDW or other places soon:

Feds aiming to drop hotel quarantine requirement in July for travellers fully vaccinated against COVID-19

Those able to enter Canada may soon be able to skip a stay at a government approved quarantine hotel.

www.cp24.com

"Federal officials said Wednesday that they are hoping to have a system in place by early July that will allow people to quarantine at home until they receive a negative result from a COVID-19 test taken upon landing.

Federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu said the government is not changing the rules around who can enter the country, but the change would make things easier for those who are eligible to enter Canada."

It will help but I have seen many people say they still won't travel due to the cost of getting a test.

 

[Hakunamatata]

I long for the day that coronavirus thread can be locked because its no longer relevant.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

It will help but I have seen many people say they still won't travel due to the cost of getting a test.

I thought they test you for free at the airport upon arrival? That's how I read the proposed new rules.

 

[ABQ]

I long for the day that coronavirus thread can be locked because its no longer relevant.

Agreed, though the trend in the UK cannot be discounted and until it is under control, this thread is valid.

Whether it's the Delta variant or other reasons, cases are going the wrong way quickly over there.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Agreed, though the trend in the UK cannot be discounted and until it is under control, this thread is valid.
View attachment 562957

Whether it's the Delta variant or other reasons, cases are going the wrong way quickly over there.

At least USA is doing way better than UK, Brazil and India now...

 

[ParentsOf4]

GDP is GDP. They aren’t really using a super complicated model. One is basing their conclusion almost purely on unemployment and the other is basing it on the overall GDP from each state. Both methodologies are flawed but both also show the strengths and weaknesses of the plans. It’s clear from the CNN report that in states where there were fewer restrictions and more businesses were open the unemployment rate was lower, which seems like a no brainer. It’s also clear from the UCLA report that the lower unemployment did not drive overall economic gains for the whole state economy. There are many other factors to consider related to GDP besides covid and the UCLA report didn’t adequately account for them, but the point stands that the economy of FL did not “boom” like some politicians and talking heads want to imply. The CNN report also failed to look at the actual real macro economic impact from less restrictions. Businesses being open does not automatically equate to economic profits.

Let's look at this more closely.

Let's first look at the CNN-Moody's Back-to-Normal Index:

The Back-to-Normal Index​

The pandemic economy is far from normal. So Moody’s Analytics and CNN Business have partnered to create a proprietary Back-to-Normal Index, comprised of 37 national and seven state-level indicators. The index ranges from zero, representing no economic activity, to 100%, representing the economy returning to its pre-pandemic level in March.​

In other words, this index uses a broad range of economic indicators, not "almost purely on unemployment" as you suggest.

Furthermore, this index evaluates the performance of all 50 states.

Now let's look at the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

First off, it's exactly that, a forecast. They are projecting into the future how much they think states will recover.

Then the Yahoo article does not actually link to the forecast report, it only links to the UCLA Anderson Forecast homepage:

Last week, this argument got a boost with the publication of a new report by economists at the University of California, Los Angeles. According to the latest quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, not only did big states with more stringent COVID measures end 2020 with fewer infections per capita, they also tended to post better economic growth numbers last year than states with fewer restrictions.​

​

What exactly is the "new report" referenced by the Yahoo article?

The UCLA Anderson Forecast homepage includes articles on topics such as:

• Cathay Bank | UCLA Anderson Forecast U.S.-China Economic Report (no date)
• The Impact of Fiscal Stimulus (dated November 16, 2020)
• California Dreaming - Jerry talks California's pandemic recovery on ABC7 (dated April 8, 2021)
• UCLA Predicts U.S. Economy Will Have Record Growth in 2021 (dated March 26, 2021)
• How California Weathered The Pandemic Financially And What The Future Holds (dated March 17, 2021)
• California will recover from the pandemic faster than the U.S., forecast says (dated March 10, 2021)
• Interview with Conan Nolan - Jerry talks 2021 recovery expectations on NBC4 (dated January 3, 2021)
• Commercial Real Estate Survey (dated Winter 2021)

What is the "new report" referenced in the Yahoo article?

Now let's look at the UCLA Anderson Forecast's data source:

We generally view economic performance through the lens of gross domestic product. On average, GDP declined in 2020, and it declined everywhere. But those declines were smaller in states with more stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions than states with less stringent NPIs.​

In other words, the UCLA Anderson Forecast is only looking at GDP.

But certainly they looked at all states? No!

The states that were considered for this analysis are basically the states that produce most of the U.S. GDP — states with a population of 5 million or greater.​

On average, conservative states have much lower populations that liberal states. How convenient to ignore most of the conservative states that have recovered well!

And then there's this:

According to the latest quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, not only did big states with more stringent COVID measures end 2020 with fewer infections per capita, they also tended to post better economic growth numbers last year than states with fewer restrictions.​

And this:

The data we have for 2020 is pretty conclusive. ​

So, in an economic recovery, they are using data that's nearly 6 months old!

Now let's look at another statement in the article that is patently false:

First, California had more stringent interventions and a lower infection rate than either Texas or Florida, two states to which it’s often compared. Yet California also performed better with respect to GDP than either Texas or Florida. Second, the same pattern showed up across all big states.​

Really?

The article then immediately contradicts itself:

There were two outliers: New York and Michigan. Both had stringent NPIs but lost a lot of ground in terms of GDP.​

Those are two pretty big "outliers"!

Then the article includes little nuggets like this:

It’s true that if unemployment is your metric, California has a very high rate relative to Florida.​

Yeah, we all know unemployment is not an important metric.

Remember the UCLA Anderson Forecast was written by people who collect their salaries from the State of California.

The Back-to-Normal Index was jointly created by CNN and Moody's. CNN certainly cannot be accused of being pro-conservative.

Let's see how the Back-to-Normal Index graded the 12 most populous states:

• Florida: 101%
• Georgia: 96%
• Virginia: 93%
• Ohio: 92%
• North Carolina: 91%
• Texas: 91%
• California: 90%
• New Jersey: 90%
• Michigan: 89%
• Pennsylvania: 86%
• Illinois: 81%
• New York: 79%

Of the two reports, I know which one I believe and which one is written by cheerleaders for the State of California.

 

[GoofGoof]

Let's look at this more closely.

Let's first look at the CNN-Moody's Back-to-Normal Index:

The Back-to-Normal Index​

The pandemic economy is far from normal. So Moody’s Analytics and CNN Business have partnered to create a proprietary Back-to-Normal Index, comprised of 37 national and seven state-level indicators. The index ranges from zero, representing no economic activity, to 100%, representing the economy returning to its pre-pandemic level in March.​

In other words, this index uses a broad range of economic indicators, not "almost purely on unemployment" as you suggest.

Furthermore, this index evaluates the performance of all 50 states.

Now let's look at the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

First off, it's exactly that, a forecast. They are projecting into the future how much they think states will recover.

Then the Yahoo article does not actually link to the forecast report, it only links to the UCLA Anderson Forecast homepage:

Last week, this argument got a boost with the publication of a new report by economists at the University of California, Los Angeles. According to the latest quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, not only did big states with more stringent COVID measures end 2020 with fewer infections per capita, they also tended to post better economic growth numbers last year than states with fewer restrictions.​

​

What exactly is the "new report" referenced by the Yahoo article?

The UCLA Anderson Forecast homepage includes articles on topics such as:

• Cathay Bank | UCLA Anderson Forecast U.S.-China Economic Report (no date)
• The Impact of Fiscal Stimulus (dated November 16, 2020)
• California Dreaming - Jerry talks California's pandemic recovery on ABC7 (dated April 8, 2021)
• UCLA Predicts U.S. Economy Will Have Record Growth in 2021 (dated March 26, 2021)
• How California Weathered The Pandemic Financially And What The Future Holds (dated March 17, 2021)
• California will recover from the pandemic faster than the U.S., forecast says (dated March 10, 2021)
• Interview with Conan Nolan - Jerry talks 2021 recovery expectations on NBC4 (dated January 3, 2021)
• Commercial Real Estate Survey (dated Winter 2021)

What is the "new report" referenced in the Yahoo article?

Now let's look at the UCLA Anderson Forecast's data source:

We generally view economic performance through the lens of gross domestic product. On average, GDP declined in 2020, and it declined everywhere. But those declines were smaller in states with more stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions than states with less stringent NPIs.​

In other words, the UCLA Anderson Forecast is only looking at GDP.

But certainly they looked at all states? No!

The states that were considered for this analysis are basically the states that produce most of the U.S. GDP — states with a population of 5 million or greater.​

On average, conservative states have much lower populations that liberal states. How convenient to ignore most of the conservative states that have recovered well!

And then there's this:

According to the latest quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, not only did big states with more stringent COVID measures end 2020 with fewer infections per capita, they also tended to post better economic growth numbers last year than states with fewer restrictions.​

And this:

The data we have for 2020 is pretty conclusive. ​

So, in an economic recovery, they are using data that's nearly 6 months old!

Now let's look at another statement in the article that is patently false:

First, California had more stringent interventions and a lower infection rate than either Texas or Florida, two states to which it’s often compared. Yet California also performed better with respect to GDP than either Texas or Florida. Second, the same pattern showed up across all big states.​

Really?

The article then immediately contradicts itself:

There were two outliers: New York and Michigan. Both had stringent NPIs but lost a lot of ground in terms of GDP.​

Those are two pretty big "outliers"!

Then the article includes little nuggets like this:

It’s true that if unemployment is your metric, California has a very high rate relative to Florida.​

Yeah, we all know unemployment is not an important metric.

Remember the UCLA Anderson Forecast was written by people who collect their salaries from the State of California.

The Back-to-Normal Index was jointly created by CNN and Moody's. CNN certainly cannot be accused of being pro-conservative.

Let's see how the Back-to-Normal Index graded the 12 most populous states:

• Florida: 101%
• Georgia: 96%
• Virginia: 93%
• Ohio: 92%
• North Carolina: 91%
• Texas: 91%
• California: 90%
• New Jersey: 90%
• Michigan: 89%
• Pennsylvania: 86%
• Illinois: 81%
• New York: 79%

Of the two reports, I know which one I believe and which one is written by cheerleaders for the State of California.

I started typing up a long winded response but realized what’s the point. This is a useless academic debate and most people have already decided which way was better so no matter how many studies or how much future analysis is done no opinions will be changed. It is what it is. I am going to go back to enjoying my return to normal

 

[hopemax]

I started typing up a long winded response but realized what’s the point. This is a useless academic debate and most people have already decided which way was better so no matter how many studies or how much future analysis is done no opinions will be changed. It is what it is. I am going to go back to enjoying my return to normal

Also, likely to give Steve a headache as I'm not sure that detailed economic evaluations is what we are supposed to be doing with all the leeway we've been allowed in our covid & wdw thread.

 

[Phil12]

Let's see how the Back-to-Normal Index graded the 12 most populous states:

• Florida: 101%
• Georgia: 96%
• Virginia: 93%
• Ohio: 92%
• North Carolina: 91%
• Texas: 91%
• California: 90%
• New Jersey: 90%
• Michigan: 89%
• Pennsylvania: 86%
• Illinois: 81%
• New York: 79%

Of the two reports, I know which one I believe and which one is written by cheerleaders for the State of California.

Of the two reports, I believe neither and I live in Florida. I understand why some people like "Back-to-Normal" cheerleaders, but skewing the facts doesn't help to eradicate the virus. And until we gain more control, virus variants will prolong the pandemic. We already have four variants of concern:

The India or Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of which more than 12,000 cases have been seen in across the UK

The UK, Kent or Alpha variant (also known as B.1.1.7) is prevalent in Britain - with more than 200,000 cases identified - and has spread to more than 50 countries and appears to be mutating again

The South Africa or Beta variant (B.1.351) has been identified in at least 20 other countries, including the UK

The Brazil or Gamma variant (P.1) has spread to more than 10 other countries, including the UK

The only way to end this pandemic is to follow strict guidelines and vaccinate as many eligible people as possible. At this point, the pandemic is far from over and it will get worse if we drop our guard. This is not a local problem. It's a global problem. Let's all work together to put an end to this virus:

 

[DisneyFan32]

Of the two reports, I believe neither and I live in Florida. I understand why some people like "Back-to-Normal" cheerleaders, but skewing the facts doesn't help to eradicate the virus. And until we gain more control, virus variants will prolong the pandemic. We already have four variants of concern:

The India or Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of which more than 12,000 cases have been seen in across the UK

The UK, Kent or Alpha variant (also known as B.1.1.7) is prevalent in Britain - with more than 200,000 cases identified - and has spread to more than 50 countries and appears to be mutating again

The South Africa or Beta variant (B.1.351) has been identified in at least 20 other countries, including the UK

The Brazil or Gamma variant (P.1) has spread to more than 10 other countries, including the UK

The only way to end this pandemic is to follow strict guidelines and vaccinate as many eligible people as possible. At this point, the pandemic is far from over and it will get worse if we drop our guard. This is not a local problem. It's a global problem. Let's all work together to put an end to this virus:

Now I'm worried about future variants.......

 

[ParentsOf4]

With only 61.3% of the eligible population having received their first dose, the United States has reached a dubious milestone.

The 7-day moving average of first doses is now at its lowest point of 2021.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

It will help but I have seen many people say they still won't travel due to the cost of getting a test.

It's a tentative first step towards easing travel restrictions.

It's good news for people who got "stuck" somewhere or travel south for winters, but I suspect the hassle of the COVID tests means it won't result in a large uptick of leisure travel out of Canada.