Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Yep, in order to get these vaccines out ASAP there simply wasn't time to trial different intervals. If there was, they'd have studied second doses at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 16 weeks, 6 months, etc. That's why we are now getting some data to support longer intervals, which is not unexpected given how many other vaccines have delayed second doses.

Ultimately, the USA follows the existing guidelines because they have sufficient supply and this is the correct choice. Canada and the UK delaying second shots is also the right choice, based on the current conditions. It has been reported that in Canada, new COVID cases amongst those with one shot account for only 2% of cases. One dose (for now) was a calculated risk that appears to be paying off.

The 3 or 4 weeks seems to be more like a “you have to wait at least this long”. A minimum wait as opposed to a maximum. Remember when they ran the trials the goal was to end the pandemic quickly so if they picked 6 months for the booster the US would be waiting until the end of Summer for a lot of people to get their second dose. The companies knew the desire was to determine how quickly you could complete the series and still have the vaccine be effective. The desire was to accelerate not delay. The plan to delay is due to a shortage of supply.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I think the CDC here may have jumped the gun by a little bit on what just happened and I would have preferred to wait for some more people to be vaccinated,

That I agree with, and have my own theories as to why the USA has pushed hard for "back to normal" while Canada hasn't beyond just the number of vaccines, but they're strictly political so I'll stop now before I get ahead of myself.

 

[danlb_2000]

The trials that were run for Moderna used 4 weeks between doses. The trials run for Pfizer used 3 weeks. Both companies independently determined the time spread based on advice from their scientists and set the protocols for their trials. There’s no right answer to the time between and both companies have said they don’t believe waiting longer is an issue based on the known science but they can’t recommend that definitively because the trials didn’t test for that. In the UK and Canada the government officials and medical experts there determined that due to a shortage of vaccine doses it was better to delay the 2nd dose and get more people dose 1. That was a public health decision.

I think this came down to a risk vs reward decision. Giving both doses of the Pfizer/Moderna timeline provided the fastest route to getting the best effectivity for the vaccinated person, but spreading them out allowed more people to get a decent level of protection faster which may have saved lives.

 

[danlb_2000]

What the CDC put out there is 100% backed by science. The administration ultimately supported releasing that knowing that it would effectively remove mask mandates in most situations (which it has). The science firmly supports that anyone fully vaccinated shouldn't have to wear a mask. It does not support dropping masks and distancing in all indoor settings today for everyone when less than half of Americans have even one shot and our daily death rate is still the equivalent of 225,000 deaths a year. The CDC didn’t fall for a ploy and neither did the administration. They knew this change would result in the dropping of the mandates and they took the gamble that it’s not too soon. I hope it works out. I think it will.

What this change from the CDC really did was allow businesses to shift the responsibility of following of CDC guidance to the individual. When mask mandates were first put in place, businesses were required to enforce them. Now that vaccinated people don't need to wear masks, some businesses are allowing vaccinated people to go maskless, but since they aren't asking for proof, they have shifted the responsibility to the customer. I will leave it up to everyone to decide for them themselves if people can be trusted with that responsibility or not.

 

[jlhwdw]

That's what has been said since vaccines came available. Masks and social distancing will be in place til then. In Ontario at least they figure by July we will have a lot of what was open like last summer. The only thing they have said that won't be coming back this summer is concerts and fans at sporting events.

Which is unfortunate, because the science says Canada can do a lot more safely than they are.

 

[Jrb1979]

Which is unfortunate, because the science says Canada can do a lot more safely than they are.

I have no issue with them staying on the safe side. If it gets more people vaccinated then I am all for it.

 

[BrianLo]

If the target remains 75% you will likely need to wait until kids under 12 are approved before lifting any restrictions unless you get 90%+ of eligible people vaccinated which is in theory possible. Probably not until September or October for the kids under 12.

I feel for you. It would be difficult to watch another Summer slip away, especially if things start to look really good. I think the CDC here may have jumped the gun by a little bit on what just happened and I would have preferred to wait for some more people to be vaccinated, but you have to set a realistic, achievable target. Based on the progression of vaccinations in Israel they reopened almost their entire economy when over 50% of the population was vaccinated (with masks and distancing) and saw their cases really flatline at 55%. They have likely effectively achieved herd immunity and still only have 60% of the population with 1 shot. Is it necessary to go to 75%? Who knows. Israel did have a high number of natural infections (on par with the US) so if Canada has less natural immune people it’s possible they do need a higher percentage vaccinated. As I said with the US plan, Israel is just a benchmark and there are many different ways to achieve the goal. Everyone doesn’t have to follow their exact plan but it does show that flatlined cases and potentially herd immunity can be achieved at a level below 60% vaccinated.

I think the confusion you guys have is the target is 75% of eligible adult Canadians. Not 75% of the whole population. This puts it much more in line with Israel when we correct. I think we're around 54% currently and if the pace keeps up it will be achieved by the start of June. We're about 6.5 million doses out and I believe around 4 million are coming this week and 3 the week after.

I'm hoping this is the case.

Last year I wore a mask while at the gym. I made a point of visiting restaurants on off peak hours, or eat outside. I didn't feel comfortable going to a movie theater, but didn't begrudge those who did.

Admittedly for all my Ontario friends out there - our experiences are not very equivalent, unfortunately. I just was out eating on a patio and getting my hair cut tomorrow. I do think we'll have an even more normal summer than last year. The messaging in Canada skews cautious and the US aggressive. In reality they both sort of are forced more to the middle.

But our vaccine uptake is actually officially way better (something people questioned me on two weeks ago). In the end that's the most important metric to end this properly.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[BrianLo]

IMO, come July 5th (the Monday after Canada Day long weekend) most businesses and activities should be allowed except things like concerts and sports with live spectators. Mask mandates, capacity restrictions, contact tracing? Yes to all of the above, but banned outright? No. By that time anyone who wants their first dose will have had one and we'll be well underway to doing second doses. We know far more about the virus now compared to last year and now are administering an antidote. The overly cautious approach to reopening at this point is an overcorrection that does not reflect the current situation.

I just want to address this too. It's easy to look at our vaccination penetration and ask why can't we be like the states right now? But the caution actually does reflect the current situation.

Where I agree though, today's caution does not reflect at all what the situation will be by July. About 20% of the total Canadian population have a single vaccine onboard that is under 21 days from administration. We know it really doesn't do much until 14 days and really develops most of its efficacy between 14-21.

We have an amazing amount of upcoming "partial herd immunity power", that isn't here quite yet, but 5-6 weeks from now I strongly do believe officials will be quickly changing their tune. The numbers today do indeed suck, but don't let it weigh you down. Things are going to be way, way better very soon for us. We know this from every country ahead of us, the drop off is coming. It just isn't here today because our vaccine rate of rise in the last number of weeks has been meteoric.

Today's caution sucks when the road has seemed so unending. But finally just a bit more patience should really pay off!

*Virtual Canadian pump up*

 

[GoofGoof]

I think the confusion you guys have is the target is 75% of eligible adult Canadians. Not 75% of the whole population. This puts it much more in line with Israel when we correct. I think we're around 54% currently and if the pace keeps up it will be achieved by the start of June. We're about 6.5 million doses out and I believe around 4 million are coming this week and 3 the week after.



Admittedly for all my Ontario friends out there - our experiences are not very equivalent, unfortunately. I just was out eating on a patio and getting my hair cut tomorrow. I do think we'll have an even more normal summer than last year. The messaging in Canada skews cautious and the US aggressive. In reality they both sort of are forced more to the middle.

But our vaccine uptake is actually officially way better (something people questioned me on two weeks ago). In the end that's the most important metric to end this properly.

I agree 100% that if it’s 75% of eligible adults then that’s a different story. Assuming 75% of the population is adults that’s a target of 56% of the total population which is in line with when Israel saw great results. I asked that question before and was told it was total population which makes little sense. Using 75% of eligible adults my county is very close to that mark right now and so are many places in the US. Nationally we are at 60% of adults but regionally much higher in a lot of places.

 

[BrianLo]

I agree 100% that if it’s 75% of eligible adults then that’s a different story. Assuming 75% of the population is adults that’s a target of 56% of the total population which is in line with when Israel saw great results. I asked that question before and was told it was total population which makes little sense. Using 75% of eligible adults my county is very close to that mark right now and so are many places in the US. Nationally we are at 60% of adults but regionally much higher in a lot of places.

Yes, sorry the messaging has been a bit confusing and we are feeding you this all second hand. I had to re-read it multiple times, but it is indeed going to be about 55% of total population (for simplicity) or 75% of adults. I honestly think we are on pace to clear that in a couple of weeks.

We still broadly are not offering vaccines to everyone quite yet. Certain high risk regions are, and certain regions are a bit ahead of others, but not the majority of Canada quite yet. So despite us approaching the US penetration I think we likely have another 10%+ push before we hit our plateau where demands drops off. I'm hoping for an Israel-like curve for us, especially since we are still in the thick of it.

 

[GoofGoof]

What this change from the CDC really did was allow businesses to shift the responsibility of following of CDC guidance to the individual. When mask mandates were first put in place, businesses were required to enforce them. Now that vaccinated people don't need to wear masks, some businesses are allowing vaccinated people to go maskless, but since they aren't asking for proof, they have shifted the responsibility to the customer. I will leave it up to everyone to decide for them themselves if people can be trusted with that responsibility or not.

I agree. I’m actually fine with that. I don’t think it‘s the business‘s responsibility to police vaccine status. What I am not Ok with is businesses that are saying no masks for anyone. That is not following the science and not following the CDC guidance. I’d rather see a policy that says only fully vaccinated people are allowed in without a mask but unvaccinated people will still need a mask. Hershey Park’s new rules:

• Face coverings and social distancing for guests who are fully vaccinated will no longer be required effective immediately. Of course, all vaccinated guests are free to continue to wear face coverings if they choose to do so.
• All guests two years of age and older who are not fully vaccinated must wear face coverings during their visit except while eating or drinking.
• We will rely on our guests to accurately follow the guidelines based on their vaccination status.

Some people may say what’s the difference because an unvaccinated person can show up and not wear a mask and they won’t be challenged, but it’s the principle. They still need to lie to do it. Make them lie, don‘t give in and let them off the hook. Yes, you get to walk around maskless, but you are still a lier and someone who didn’t follow the rules. IMHO a place like Hershey Park should ask each person as they walk through the gates without a mask if they are fully vaccinated. That simple step would actually probably weed out some people who wouldn’t want to lie to someone’s face and might actually encourage more vaccine uptake.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I almost became an anti-vaxxer when my now 15-year-old was a baby. What draws you in is fear because no one explains how vaccines work in simple terms...they're just some juice you get a shot of that keeps you from getting sick.

C-Span very recently aired some great videos on the history of vaccines. One was called, "Smallpox and the First Vaccine," but they had more than one video, and the title of that one, I'm not sure how to say here, but the content is broader than the title suggests.

A VERY BRIEF and summarized history:

The history of vaccines, and concerns about vaccines, date back to the origin of vaccines. Variolation was the precursor to the first vaccine. Variolation was - as far as I know- specifically a way to combat smallpox. There were a few parts to the idea:
1. Smallpox was very common.
2. Overall, about 1/3 of people did not survive smallpox, but there was variation between smallpox outbreaks. Some outbreaks had a higher survival rate, and some had a lower survival rate.
3. If a person survived smallpox, they generally couldn't get it a second time.

The basic idea of variolation was to inoculate people from smallpox by intentionally exposing them to a mild case of smallpox. The idea worked, but it came with some very real risk.
1. Variolation could trigger an unnecessary outbreak of smallpox.
2. Some variolation patients died.
3. I'm not quite sure how to explain #3- but in that time period, every cut was risky, because there was no good way to curb infections. One variolation/early vaccine concern stemmed from a concern that variolation not only gave the person smallpox, but it also corrupted a person's bloodstream. People thought it was a bad idea to put bad things into our bodies, just as some people now only want to eat healthy foods.

During the American Revolution (Boston 1775), Washington's army was nearly wiped out by a smallpox outbreak. British troops fared better because they had been inoculated. Washington quickly realized smallpox could be used as a weapon. In 1777, Washington mandated variolation of his troops.

The current debate is very old and very connected to the history of this country. I found the film very interesting.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes, sorry the messaging has been a bit confusing and we are feeding you this all second hand. I had to re-read it multiple times, but it is indeed going to be about 55% of total population (for simplicity) or 75% of adults. I honestly think we are on pace to clear that in a couple of weeks.

We still broadly are not offering vaccines to everyone quite yet. Certain high risk regions are, and certain regions are a bit ahead of others, but not the majority of Canada quite yet. So despite us approaching the US penetration I think we likely have another 10%+ push before we hit our plateau where demands drops off. I'm hoping for an Israel-like curve for us, especially since we are still in the thick of it.

In the US we are about 25M first shots away from hitting 55% of the total population. I think we could hit that in around a month’s time. I’m not saying 55% is the red line and guarantees success like Israel had, but it’s a good target to shoot for. Hopefully we hit it before the end of June and hopefully we still end up with 70-75% of adults vaccinated too.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Admittedly for all my Ontario friends out there - our experiences are not very equivalent, unfortunately. I just was out eating on a patio and getting my hair cut tomorrow.

 

[GoofGoof]

2.7M doses administered yesterday. 2nd highest total in May. 1.3M new first doses (1M of them adults 18+). Saturday is the most popular day for vaccinations now, but last Saturday we only had 755K new first shots for adults 18+ so up 33% from last week. Not saying it’s definitely the impact of the CDC changes, but it’s possible that this did factor in on motivating people to get it done. When I look online at CVS for PA there are now over 80 locations with no appointments available. This was almost zero a week ago. Some of that is kids 12-15 but from the shot totals it’s not just kids signing up.

 

[Chi84]

I agree. I’m actually fine with that. I don’t think it‘s the business‘s responsibility to police vaccine status. What I am not Ok with is businesses that are saying no masks for anyone. That is not following the science and not following the CDC guidance. I’d rather see a policy that says only fully vaccinated people are allowed in without a mask but unvaccinated people will still need a mask. Hershey Park’s new rules:

• Face coverings and social distancing for guests who are fully vaccinated will no longer be required effective immediately. Of course, all vaccinated guests are free to continue to wear face coverings if they choose to do so.
• All guests two years of age and older who are not fully vaccinated must wear face coverings during their visit except while eating or drinking.
• We will rely on our guests to accurately follow the guidelines based on their vaccination status.

Some people may say what’s the difference because an unvaccinated person can show up and not wear a mask and they won’t be challenged, but it’s the principle. They still need to lie to do it. Make them lie, don‘t give in and let them off the hook. Yes, you get to walk around maskless, but you are still a lier and someone who didn’t follow the rules. IMHO a place like Hershey Park should ask each person as they walk through the gates without a mask if they are fully vaccinated. That simple step would actually probably weed out some people who wouldn’t want to lie to someone’s face and might actually encourage more vaccine uptake.

The CDC should have raised the age with its first revision.

 

[GoofGoof]

The CDC should have raised the age with its first revision.

Schools for the most part are finally open most places and doing very well with masks and distancing. I think it would be a huge mistake to mess with that. If you are suggesting raising it from 2 to 4 that‘s probably not an issue but school aged kids need to continue wearing masks until their age is approved.

 

[Chi84]

Schools for the most part are finally open most places and doing very well with masks and distancing. I think it would be a huge mistake to mess with that. If you are suggesting raising it from 2 to 4 that‘s probably not an issue but school aged kids need to continue wearing masks until their age is approved.

I would have suggested 5 unless in a school setting. Other children's health organizations like WHO and UNICEF chose 5 and 9.

 

[CatesMom]

In the US we are about 25M first shots away from hitting 55% of the total population. I think we could hit that in around a month’s time. I’m not saying 55% is the red line and guarantees success like Israel had, but it’s a good target to shoot for. Hopefully we hit it before the end of June and hopefully we still end up with 70-75% of adults vaccinated too.

My daughter (13) got her first Pfizer shot this afternoon at a hopping county-run vaccine clinic for teens. They were pumping shots into 12-17 year old arms faster than teenagers devour Chick Fil A nuggets. Interestingly, they also offered shots to all the parents and guardians as we signed in our kids. These are the kind of coordinated pushes that could help raise the overall success rates.