We are now entering the phase where we are hurt by not implementing vaccine passports.
We have enough people vaccinated, that the CDC correctly is saying that vaccinated people can drop almost all mitigation.
But we have absolutely no system in place for selective enforcement of mitigation.
Here are the problems:
There are people who are both over-estimating and under-estimating the danger of Covid to vaccinated people.
Fact is, vaccination DRASTICALLY reduces your chances of getting Covid. But much like a seatbelt drastically reduces you chances of serious injury in an automobile accident, if you drive recklessly at 120mph, you still are putting yourself in mortal danger.
If there is very little Covid around AND you are vaccinated, then the odds you will contract Covid is exceptionally low. That's a combination of the protection from the vaccine and the infrequency of contact with Covid.
But, even if you are vaccinated, if you are in a poorly ventilated room filled with Covid positive people... every single day... then even with vaccination, you are at pretty real risk.
Thus, it is a fallacy to say that "only unvaccinated people are at risk." And if Covid spikes to high numbers, then there is so much Covid around, that even vaccinated people are still at a real risk.
The solution of course -- vaccine passports. If you're vaccinated and around other vaccinated people, it is exceptionally safe.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb has been an intelligent calm voice for the last year, but I think he is dead wrong on this one thing: He thinks the new rules will drive people to get vaccinated because unvaccinated people will be "honest" and they will voluntarily keep wearing a mask until they get vaccinated. He believes they will go get vaccinated because they want to take off their mask and don't want to "lie" about being vaccinated.
But, it's not a question about "honesty." Without passports, under the new guidance, nobody is asking whether you're vaccinated or not. It's a "don't ask, don't tell" situation. An unvaccinated person can (and will) remove their mask whether they are vaccinated or not. It won't feel "dishonest" to them, because nobody is going to ask them if they are vaccinated. And if someone does ask, I'm sure they will honestly reply, "I'm not vaccinated, but I'm choosing not to wear a mask."
I've seen some people express concern that if we simply used CDC cards as passports, you'd get people forging the CDC cards: I'm sure there would be some of that. But this is where most people would be honest. Most people aren't going to forge CDC cards.
Some enforcement of the new guidance would indeed increase vaccination. It would also allow vaccinated people to feel safer -- to know that everyone in the theater/restaurant/theme park/stadium is also vaccinated.
But the people who will "voluntarily" follow CDC guidance have already gotten vaccinated -- because that was the CDC guidance.
If they have ignored the CDC guidance to get vaccinated, why would they now start following the CDC guidance to wear a mask until they are vaccinated?
I suspect that we will be ok nationally, but this new guidance will slow down our Covid decline a bit. There is the worst case scenario, that we see more isolated spikes on local levels as mitigation gets shed in low vaccination areas.