Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[ImperfectPixie]

I don't disagree with most of what you said. However, the fact is that since there is an appointment surplus, anybody with the slightest motivation to get vaccinated can do so easily. If somebody doesn't want to make the minimal effort to protect themselves ASAP, that's not my problem.

That isn't true everywhere.

 

[DisneyCane]

That isn't true everywhere.

Then keep the measures in place where it isn't true until it is. In FL, it is true in every county I checked.

 

[_caleb]

I don't disagree with most of what you said. However, the fact is that since there is an appointment surplus, anybody with the slightest motivation to get vaccinated can do so easily. If somebody doesn't want to make the minimal effort to protect themselves ASAP, that's not my problem.

Realistically, your life span is another 40 years or so and who knows how many of those years will be "good years" where you are physically and mentally capable of doing the things you enjoy like going to WDW or dining out. You should not be willing to waste a good percentage of the rest of your life by voluntarily not doing things you enjoy "for the greater good." Even waiting for others to be vaccinated is still several months best case. 6 months is over 1% of your remaining likely "good" life span.

 

[techgeek]

I don't disagree with most of what you said. However, the fact is that since there is an appointment surplus, anybody with the slightest motivation to get vaccinated can do so easily. If somebody doesn't want to make the minimal effort to protect themselves ASAP, that's not my problem.

I can appreciate and understand the logic behind your attitude on this, but ‘that’s not my problem’ has been a big part of the problem since day one of Covid.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't disagree with most of what you said. However, the fact is that since there is an appointment surplus, anybody with the slightest motivation to get vaccinated can do so easily. If somebody doesn't want to make the minimal effort to protect themselves ASAP, that's not my problem.

The people getting vaccinated now are looking to do it on their time not ours. I’d prefer they rush in ASAP like I did, but many won’t. People not willing to bother getting an appointment and going to a mass sight or waiting in line at CVS will get the vaccine when they run a clinic at their work or even if they go to their doctor for an unrelated thing and the doctor asks if they want a Covid vaccine. It’s a slower pace, but not zero. The goal of any good vaccination program is to run out of people to vaccinate. We will get there and probably soon.

For FL, the cases and even the deaths are way too high right now to just remove the local and business imposed restrictions. Community spread is way too high right now. When the daily average of cases drops below 2,000 or so (below 10 cases per 100K) that’s the time to consider further pull backs. There’s no reason the state won’t get there if they get enough people vaccinated.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I feel like once we've hit 50 percent fully vaccinated, we will have a huge decline like Israel. The little surge seems to be over though I'm not holding by breath on that one because this is covid we're talking about

 

[DisneyFan32]

I feel like once we've hit 50 percent fully vaccinated, we will have a huge decline like Israel. The little surge seems to be over though I'm not holding by breath on that one because this is covid we're talking about

We will get there, pal. No more surges for good. Vaccines are here to save the day as possible. Pandemic will be over in US this year.

 

[GoofGoof]

I feel like once we've hit 50 percent fully vaccinated, we will have a huge decline like Israel. The little surge seems to be over though I'm not holding by breath on that one because this is covid we're talking about

Seems about right. Due to the high efficacy of even the first shot I also like to look at percent of people with at least 1 shot. I think as early as when we hit the 50% of the population with at least 1 shot level we could see a big drop off. We are at 42.5% right now. Less than 25M first doses to hit 50%. Should be towards the middle to end of May when we hit that mark.

 

[havoc315]

Seems about right. Due to the high efficacy of even the first shot I also like to look at percent of people with at least 1 shot. I think as early as when we hit the 50% of the population with at least 1 shot level we could see a big drop off. We are at 42.5% right now. Less than 25M first doses to hit 50%. Should be towards the middle to end of May when we hit that mark.

The huge drop off had already begun and will accelerate. The question will be how low the case count goes.
Of course, it's largely the vaccine but not entirely. We had massive declines last April/May. It's hard to appreciate because we were ramping up testing nationwide at the same time cases were declining.
But if you look at the March 2020 hot spots (the Northeast, Michigan, Louisiana), By summer 2020, Covid was almost non-existent in New York, only to come roaring back in the fall.

So the current decline is a combination of the vaccine + seasonality. (I do believe when we examine this in hindsight, there was a whole lot of seasonality in play).
The danger is going to be a fall resurgence. But with a high enough level of vaccination, we should be able to avoid any significant fall resurgence (and the south when through a late summer spike in 2020).

 

[DisneyFan32]

The huge drop off had already begun and will accelerate. The question will be how low the case count goes.
Of course, it's largely the vaccine but not entirely. We had massive declines last April/May. It's hard to appreciate because we were ramping up testing nationwide at the same time cases were declining.
But if you look at the March 2020 hot spots (the Northeast, Michigan, Louisiana), By summer 2020, Covid was almost non-existent in New York, only to come roaring back in the fall.

So the current decline is a combination of the vaccine + seasonality. (I do believe when we examine this in hindsight, there was a whole lot of seasonality in play).
The danger is going to be a fall resurgence. But with a high enough level of vaccination, we should be able to avoid any significant fall resurgence (and the south when through a late summer spike in 2020).

Great. No more fall resurgence or any surges, good riddance that one.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The huge drop off had already begun and will accelerate. The question will be how low the case count goes.
Of course, it's largely the vaccine but not entirely. We had massive declines last April/May. It's hard to appreciate because we were ramping up testing nationwide at the same time cases were declining.
But if you look at the March 2020 hot spots (the Northeast, Michigan, Louisiana), By summer 2020, Covid was almost non-existent in New York, only to come roaring back in the fall.

So the current decline is a combination of the vaccine + seasonality. (I do believe when we examine this in hindsight, there was a whole lot of seasonality in play).
The danger is going to be a fall resurgence. But with a high enough level of vaccination, we should be able to avoid any significant fall resurgence (and the south when through a late summer spike in 2020).

the decline was because people were scared...so they largely stayed away from each other.

funny how shutting up and doing the right thing has the greatest chance of success?

then the clown show began

 

[ImperfectPixie]

the decline was because people were scared...so they largely stayed away from each other.

funny how shutting up and doing the right thing has the greatest chance of success?

then the clown show began

And continues.

 

[GoofGoof]

The huge drop off had already begun and will accelerate. The question will be how low the case count goes.
Of course, it's largely the vaccine but not entirely. We had massive declines last April/May. It's hard to appreciate because we were ramping up testing nationwide at the same time cases were declining.
But if you look at the March 2020 hot spots (the Northeast, Michigan, Louisiana), By summer 2020, Covid was almost non-existent in New York, only to come roaring back in the fall.

So the current decline is a combination of the vaccine + seasonality. (I do believe when we examine this in hindsight, there was a whole lot of seasonality in play).
The danger is going to be a fall resurgence. But with a high enough level of vaccination, we should be able to avoid any significant fall resurgence (and the south when through a late summer spike in 2020).

Agreed. The drop off from the Jan highs was mostly just the normal 3 month arc of waves of this virus. We didn’t have enough people vaccinated to really move the needle back in Jan and Feb. That drop off stalled and we started to plateau and then cases moved upward again but that was driven primarily by a handful of large population states with a larger number of variants circulating. The hope is that vaccination rates are now having more of an impact since this recent spike was not as high and also much shorter than the typical 3 months. The bigger test is as we go forward will enough people be vaccinated to avoid a next wave from ever starting. I think we could still see regional outbreaks (especially in areas with lower vaccine uptake) but hopefully nationally the cases drop and then flatten out similar to Israel now.

 

[mmascari]

IAAPA Study: Theme Park Industry Can Move to 3ft Physical Distancing

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond

blogmickey.com

https://iaapa-hosted-files.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Public_Affairs/FinalReportUCFmaskstudy4.7.21.pdf

Bad news for those who would prefer to ditch masks before distance. It's an industry study that suggests how to increase capacity, so I would bet it's what we see as the first changes. Doesn't help dining, they'll need to solve that differently.

 

[DisneyCane]

You're moving the goalposts. A year ago, no one was vaccinated and while you were saying there was no need for masks or social distancing, the rest of us were dumbfounded.

I'm not moving any goal posts. My positions from the beginning were that people should be allowed to determine what risk they want to take, "non-essential" businesses should be allowed to operate under the same protocols that "essential" businesses were allowed to operate under and, after several early studies on the lack of outdoor spread, I never supported any measures in an outdoor environment.

Fauci had to know how low risk there was for spread outdoors a year ago as he had at least the same access to studies (and likely more) that I did. Yet, he waited until now to make a statement about it.

Realistically, your life span is another 40 years or so and who knows how many of those years will be "good years" where you are physically and mentally capable of doing the things you enjoy like going to WDW or dining out. You should not be willing to waste a good percentage of the rest of your life by voluntarily not doing things you enjoy "for the greater good." Even waiting for others to be vaccinated is still several months best case. 6 months is over 1% of your remaining likely "good" life span.

I'm not sure what paraphrasing (or quoting, not sure which) a post of mine from a year or so ago has to do with the current discussion. However, I believe that even more now than I did back then because now "the greater good" is made up almost completely of people who aren't motivated to protect themselves.

I am happy to say that the only things I missed out on for the past year were things that were closed for a time. I made up for the trips I would have taken to WDW while it was closed by going several times when it first reopened and getting to have the lowest wait times I've ever experienced or will again. If I had to estimate, I got 80% of my normal enjoyment in the past year. Some of the enjoyment became a much better value because airfares were so ridiculously cheap.

 

[Figgy1]

Then keep the measures in place where it isn't true until it is. In FL, it is true in every county I checked.

IMHO Disney is a destination with too many people coming in from other areas to remove masks safely safely. I'll cheer the day it will be

 

[havoc315]

the decline was because people were scared...so they largely stayed away from each other.

funny how shutting up and doing the right thing has the greatest chance of success?

then the clown show began

That was a factor, certainly. And "re-opening" was a factor in cases increasing.
But we have seen similar seasonal effects in places that took dramatically different mitigation strategies. There is no question in my mind that there was a strong seasonality factor independent of mitigation measures.
Of course, even that seasonality is tied to human behavior -- were people spending more time socializing indoors or outdoors, etc.

 

[jinx8402]

IAAPA Study: Theme Park Industry Can Move to 3ft Physical Distancing

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond

blogmickey.com

https://iaapa-hosted-files.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Public_Affairs/FinalReportUCFmaskstudy4.7.21.pdf

Bad news for those who would prefer to ditch masks before distance. It's an industry study that suggests how to increase capacity, so I would bet it's what we see as the first changes. Doesn't help dining, they'll need to solve that differently.

This was always my assumption. That distance would be reduced before getting rid of masks. Allows for higher capacity, and containing lines a bit better than spilling into walk ways.

 

[Parker in NYC]

IMHO Disney is a destination with too many people coming in from other areas to remove masks safely safely. I'll cheer the day it will be

Yup.

 

[GoofGoof]

IAAPA Study: Theme Park Industry Can Move to 3ft Physical Distancing

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond

blogmickey.com

https://iaapa-hosted-files.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Public_Affairs/FinalReportUCFmaskstudy4.7.21.pdf

Bad news for those who would prefer to ditch masks before distance. It's an industry study that suggests how to increase capacity, so I would bet it's what we see as the first changes. Doesn't help dining, they'll need to solve that differently.

I think the next step is to reduce distancing like the report suggests which gets you increased ride and park capacity. That’s a big win for Disney going into the crowded Summer. I assume Disney had knowledge of this study and results before it went public. Probably a big reason they increased park reservation availability in May/June/July. I think if they make this change there is a pause and they look at the impact before continuing to relax restrictions. If the CDC does relax outdoor mask requirements for fully vaccinated people soon I don’t think that triggers an immediate change at WDW. The distancing change gets them more bang for their buck. Then once we hit a metric like 50%+ of the population vaccinated they will probably apply the outdoor mask rule too. It’s hard to enforce, but I think will happen at some point early Summer, before July 4th week. Cases have to drop down a lot more (somewhere below 5 per 100,000) to see a relaxing of masks indoors and that’s when dining returns to full capacity without the need for 6 foot spacing. Hopefully that’s also this Summer.