Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

Here's the link to the study Scott mentioned from IAAPA and UCF -

https://iaapa-hosted-files.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Public_Affairs/FinalReportUCFmaskstudy4.7.21.pdf

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 64 new reported deaths, along with 2 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[GoofGoof]

What's interesting is that Broward County is deep blue which, based on polling, should mean higher than average acceptance. The mayor has been using 65% as his assumed number for a while now.

Aren’t there more natural infections than other parts of FL? That could factor in too. Places hit harder May actually need less people vaccinated. How close are they to 65% of adults?

Isn’t the county already close to 65% of adults with at least 1 dose? My county in PA is at 56% of the population with at least 1 dose. Assuming 78% of the population is 16+ that means about 72% of 16+ have started the vaccine already. 65% would have already been achieved. This weekend we just dropped below 20 cases per 100K again. It’s not looking like the time to remove restrictions yet.

 

[DisneyCane]

Aren’t there more natural infections than other parts of FL? That could factor in too. Places hit harder May actually need less people vaccinated. How close are they to 65% of adults?

Isn’t the county already close to 65% of adults with at least 1 dose? My county in PA is at 56% of the population with at least 1 dose. Assuming 78% of the population is 16+ that means about 72% of 16+ have started the vaccine already. 65% would have already been achieved. This weekend we just dropped below 20 cases per 100K again. It’s not looking like the time to remove restrictions yet.

Broward is a little over 51% of adults with at least one dose, roughly 40% of the total population. For natural infections, Broward has 230,827 documented resident cases, about 11.5% of the population. Assuming at least double the actual infections, I think we can safely say 23% are naturally immune (or were for a period of time).

I could have booked an appointment for Moderna at Publix in Broward for tomorrow when I looked this morning.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[SamusAranX]

I complete my series next week.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I'm glad that Fauci has finally said what I've been saying for a year now after reading early studies about outdoor spread. Responding to a question about changing the CDC guidelines to remove outdoor mask use, he said:

"But I think it's pretty common sense now that outdoor risk is really, really quite low, particularly -- I mean, if you are a vaccinated person, wearing a mask outdoors, I mean, obviously, the risk is minuscule."

The bolded part is before he was referring to vaccinated people. For those in this thread that always say that outdoors isn't a magic safe place, Dr. Fauci has essentially said that.

Obviously, there is no place, indoors or outdoors, where COVID risk is zero but the outdoor risk is so low that there is no reason to have measures outdoors at WDW or anywhere else (sporting events, the beach, etc.).

Went ahead and bolded the other part of that sentence to keep things in the right context. You pointed it out but you didn't include it. A year ago, no one was vaccinated. So, I don't understand how anyone is late to the party here except for the fact that you threw your hands up at masks and social distancing from day one.

 

[DisneyCane]

Went ahead and bolded the other part of that sentence to keep things in the right context. You pointed it out but you didn't include it. A year ago, no one was vaccinated. So, I don't understand how anyone is late to the party here except for the fact that you threw your hands up at masks and social distancing from day one.

He was doubling down on how the risk is even lower (to the point of calling it miniscule) if you are outdoors AND vaccinated. The first part of the statement was about how low outdoor risk is to begin with and that's where he is late to the party. Going back a year there were studies in China and Italy that showed little to no spread linked to outdoor environments.

 

[Parker in NYC]

He was doubling down on how the risk is even lower (to the point of calling it miniscule) if you are outdoors AND vaccinated. The first part of the statement was about how low outdoor risk is to begin with and that's where he is late to the party. Going back a year there were studies in China and Italy that showed little to no spread linked to outdoor environments.

You're moving the goalposts. A year ago, no one was vaccinated and while you were saying there was no need for masks or social distancing, the rest of us were dumbfounded.

 

[Bullseye1967]

Went ahead and bolded the other part of that sentence to keep things in the right context. You pointed it out but you didn't include it. A year ago, no one was vaccinated. So, I don't understand how anyone is late to the party here except for the fact that you threw your hands up at masks and social distancing from day one.

I read that as "outdoor risk is really, really quite low" if unvaccinated and "if you are a vaccinated person, wearing a mask outdoors, I mean, obviously, the risk is minuscule."

Two different levels of risk. One is very low and the other is almost non existent.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I read that as "outdoor risk is really, really quite low" if unvaccinated and "if you are a vaccinated person, wearing a mask outdoors, I mean, obviously, the risk is minuscule."

Two different levels of risk. One is very low and the other is almost non existent.

Ok, so it's the difference between really, really quite low and miniscule. But I see as you and others agree with DisneyCane that masks outdoors could have been eliminated last year, I'm not going to press the argument.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Once the FDA officially approves these bad boys, all bets are off when it comes to guidelines/ vaccine passports. Companies know they can make $$$$$$$$$ once they loosen guidelines, the catch, everyones gotta be vaccinated. I keep saying this and I stand by it. Watch what may happen over the summer ( I think thats eta for approval). Vaccines will ultimately be money makers for companies big and small.

And with the EU announcement yesterday, why wouldn't airlines jump on board?

 

[hopemax]

Ok, so it's the difference between really, really quite low and miniscule. But I see as you and others agree with DisneyCane that masks outdoors could have been eliminated last year, I'm not going to press the argument.

IMO, this is a 20/20 hindsight thing. Also, a what government/business were willing to do thing. Several epidemiologists suspected that masking outdoors was unnecessary, but we lacked the necessary proof to have high levels of confidence, until we could see the evidence. Universal masking was also a step that businesses/government were willing to accept in lieu of closures while still trying to demonstrate that they were taking this seriously. In this case, if the decision to drop outdoor masking were made earlier we would "have gotten away with it." But with another virus, who knows if the outcome would be the same, so I hope people just don't assume for all viruses past and present outdoor masking is useless or any of the other precautions that were implemented but maybe weren't necessary.

People claim to be proponents of "hope for the best, but plan for the worst," but like a lot of things that turned out to be a bunch of hogwash. Many people would have liked the "Do nothing and only if things get really bad then they maybe might consider something." But when you wait until things get really bad, then things are going to get a lot worse before they get better, no matter what people decide to do then. You have to be pro-active, even if some of the things didn't help. The alternative is worse.

 

[Kevin_W]

Once the FDA officially approves these bad boys, all bets are off when it comes to guidelines/ vaccine passports. Companies know they can make $$$$$$$$$ once they loosen guidelines, the catch, everyones gotta be vaccinated. I keep saying this and I stand by it. Watch what may happen over the summer ( I think thats eta for approval). Vaccines will ultimately be money makers for companies big and small.

And with the EU announcement yesterday, why wouldn't airlines jump on board?

I'm not sure what you are referring to?

 

[DCBaker]

"West Virginia aims to entice residents aged 16 to 35 to get a coronavirus shot with the promise of a $100 savings bond.

Republican Gov. Jim Justice said Monday the move was to “jump-start” immunizing the demographic that officials say are most likely to be currently spreading the virus. There are about 380,000 people in the age range.

Justice said he chose a savings bond, over simply cash, for its “patriotic” factor and because he wants young people “to really see and understand that they’ve done something that’s really meaningful.” A bond may take many years to mature to reach its full value. The state will use federal CARES Act money to cover the costs.

The new incentive was announced as the state tries to turn around its sluggish vaccination program. Officials are also considering proposals to make vaccine clinics more ubiquitous by holding events at schools, fairs and more businesses."

West Virginia to give $100 savings bond for young vaccinated

Republican Gov.

apnews.com

 

[mmascari]

Virus Consulting

xkcd.com

Clearly a trending topic.

 

[DisneyCane]

Current Florida vaccine report -

View attachment 552079View attachment 552080

Here are my calculations of the percentage of each age group with at least one shot. 16-24 is slightly higher in reality due to my population data being 16-24. I've also included the increase from the 4/25 report to the 4/26 report for each group and total. I know it was a Monday report but that increase is pretty low. Hopefully this number increases on the weekday reports.

Age	% Vaccinated	Increase 4/25-4/26
16-24	18.2%​	7181​
25-34	24.1%​	8574​
35-44	34.0%​	9533​
45-54	42.3%​	10011​
55-64	58.9%​	9034​
65-74	85.0%​	3376​
75-84	84.3%​	1503​
85+	70.5%​	507​
Total	39.7%​	49719​

65+ combined is at 82.9%. Every report it becomes more clear that there is very soft demand in the younger demographics.

Appointments are easily booked for the next day or two days later and there are no appointment necessary sites as well. Anybody who hasn't started a series by now either doesn't wish to be vaccinated or isn't very motivated to get vaccinated.

Anybody who has started the series by now will be maximally protected by June 7th. Therefore all COVID measures and restrictions should be removed on June 8th. Enough with doing anything to protect people who can't be bothered to protect themselves.

This goes for WDW as well. Any CM who wants to be vaccinated will have had the opportunity to be maximally protected by that date. I know somebody will bring up the danger to kids who can't be vaccinated because they are under 16. However, the risk to children under 16 from COVID is lower than the risk to them from a lot of other things.

Using data from FL for 14 and under, the case hospitalization rate is 0.64% and the case fatality rate is 0.003%. We know that there are likely to be significantly more asymptomatic cases in that demographic than the older demographics so the infection hospitalization and fatality rate are essentially irrelevant in the scheme of things that cause children to be hospitalized or die.

 

[GoofGoof]

Here are my calculations of the percentage of each age group with at least one shot. 16-24 is slightly higher in reality due to my population data being 16-24. I've also included the increase from the 4/25 report to the 4/26 report for each group and total. I know it was a Monday report but that increase is pretty low. Hopefully this number increases on the weekday reports.

Age	% Vaccinated	Increase 4/25-4/26
16-24	18.2%​	7181​
25-34	24.1%​	8574​
35-44	34.0%​	9533​
45-54	42.3%​	10011​
55-64	58.9%​	9034​
65-74	85.0%​	3376​
75-84	84.3%​	1503​
85+	70.5%​	507​
Total	39.7%​	49719​

65+ combined is at 82.9%. Every report it becomes more clear that there is very soft demand in the younger demographics.

Appointments are easily booked for the next day or two days later and there are no appointment necessary sites as well. Anybody who hasn't started a series by now either doesn't wish to be vaccinated or isn't very motivated to get vaccinated.

Anybody who has started the series by now will be maximally protected by June 7th. Therefore all COVID measures and restrictions should be removed on June 8th. Enough with doing anything to protect people who can't be bothered to protect themselves.

This goes for WDW as well. Any CM who wants to be vaccinated will have had the opportunity to be maximally protected by that date. I know somebody will bring up the danger to kids who can't be vaccinated because they are under 16. However, the risk to children under 16 from COVID is lower than the risk to them from a lot of other things.

Using data from FL for 14 and under, the case hospitalization rate is 0.64% and the case fatality rate is 0.003%. We know that there are likely to be significantly more asymptomatic cases in that demographic than the older demographics so the infection hospitalization and fatality rate are essentially irrelevant in the scheme of things that cause children to be hospitalized or die.

I posted an article earlier that highlighted the fact that having appointments available is actually not a bad thing, it was the plan all along and helps get people in who otherwise wouldn’t jump through hoops to get it. The vaccine push is far from over. On a national level we are receiving 28M doses of Pfizer and Moderna a week now and using 21M or less each week. That creates a surplus of 7M shots a week. That surplus is growing but that’s also what makes it possible to have vaccine time slots available anywhere and everywhere. It’s not necessarily that nobody wants a shot, we are still averaging nearly 3M shots a day. We’ve moved into the pull phase and that means slower vaccination rates as we find all of the people left and convince them to come in. The government needs to do a better job convincing people to get vaccines now. The Governor of FL needs to step up and make it happen instead of fighting the cause with nonsense executive orders. Local Government and community leaders need to step up too. We’re shifting from mass vaccine sights to smaller targeted vaccine clinics and a more local approach. That takes a lot of effort and coordination and a dedication from those in charge to actually want to succeed. I’m not sure that dedication exists everywhere right now.

Disney will not just remove their restrictions in a month because the vaccine pace in FL has slowed. They will be more focused on the CDC and the national picture. Remember they closed WDW before required by the state and when the cases in FL were not too bad back in March. The national picture matters. The good news is the trend is starting to slope downward. 2 straight days under 50,000 cases nationally. We’ve got a way to go, but it’s looking better.

 

[DisneyCane]

I posted an article earlier that highlighted the fact that having appointments available is actually not a bad thing, it was the plan all along and helps get people in who otherwise wouldn’t jump through hoops to get it. The vaccine push is far from over. On a national level we are receiving 28M doses of Pfizer and Moderna a week now and using 21M or less each week. That creates a surplus of 7M shots a week. That surplus is growing but that’s also what makes it possible to have vaccine time slots available anywhere and everywhere. It’s not necessarily that nobody wants a shot, we are still averaging nearly 3M shots a day. We’ve moved into the pull phase and that means slower vaccination rates as we find all of the people left and convince them to come in. The government needs to do a better job convincing people to get vaccines now. The Governor of FL needs to step up and make it happen instead of fighting the cause with nonsense executive orders. Local Government and community leaders need to step up too. We’re shifting from mass vaccine sights to smaller targeted vaccine clinics and a more local approach. That takes a lot of effort and coordination and a dedication from those in charge to actually want to succeed. I’m not sure that dedication exists everywhere right now.

Disney will not just remove their restrictions in a month because the vaccine pace in FL has slowed. They will be more focused on the CDC and the national picture. Remember they closed WDW before required by the state and when the cases in FL were not too bad back in March. The national picture matters. The good news is the trend is starting to slope downward. 2 straight days under 50,000 cases nationally. We’ve got a way to go, but it’s looking better.

I don't disagree with most of what you said. However, the fact is that since there is an appointment surplus, anybody with the slightest motivation to get vaccinated can do so easily. If somebody doesn't want to make the minimal effort to protect themselves ASAP, that's not my problem.