danlb_2000
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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hopemax
Well-Known Member
The fourth wave is from the UK variant, that since December, have been predicted to become the dominant strain in the US in March. Now we're in March and we will see what happens; like a mid-term exam. It's not expected to be like winter, but more like the bumps that hit certain areas over the summer. This is why there are so many eyes watching the drop in cases that we have been experiencing that has flatlined this week. Is it the early warning sign of the predicted bump? We won't have to wait long to find out. It's not a "nebulous sometime, maybe" thing, but an imminent thing.
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
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So it might won't happen because many people in US are getting vaccine this month and next month.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
I think that's a very good point. I think there are a small contingent that will change. But I agree that people that want to party without masks have largely been doing that.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
She can't participate in trials due to allergic reactions to past immunizations.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
You don't want to ask me, I'm the negative nelly. Only 16% of the US population has received a first dose, which leaves a lot of people still eligible to get infected. A vaccine given next month will not help with this. But with so many elderly, and vulnerable people having completed their doses, a spike in cases will hopefully not turn into a spike in deaths.
The Trump administration mishandled Covid in countless ways. But absolutely — operation Warp Speed was a definite success. And the Trump administration rightfully deserves some of the credit -
As does Germany who primarily funded the Pfizer vaccine, the UK and EU, and the efforts of the pharmaceutical industry, and countless hard working scientists.
The speed at which we developed a vaccine was truly record setting.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
In January the CDC warning was the UK variant could become the dominant strain in the US by March.
That prediction has not come true. As recent as 4 days ago the UK variant only accounts for 10% of Covid cases. It’s up from the level it was at, but nowhere near the dominant strain.
UK coronavirus variant now accounts for 10% of US cases, CDC director says
The coronavirus variant first detected in the U.K. late last year now accounts for up to 10% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., officials said Friday.
www.foxnews.com
There‘s no guarantee it won’t increase still or that another variant could emerge and become dominant, but this highlights that the warnings about possible scenarios aren’t a guarantee they come true. Same goes for the need of a booster shot for variants. That could very well happen as well but it could also be a warning that doesn‘t come true either.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
The impact will be on people working. If you are a server in a restaurant at half capacity vs one that is 100%, you're risk of exposure goes up. If your boss told you to wear a mask before, and now is telling you not to (because you know there will be bosses that do that) your exposure goes up. And Texas is not prioritizing essential workers for vaccines.
Figgy1
Premium Member
What?????????? Nothing for front line workers??????? Grocery stores, servers, librarians and so on
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Yes, but now they will be able to do it around people who haven't been partying without masks proving more sources for spread.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
That's a long way away. There's still plans for the county fair in July and Oktoberfest to occur here, but they are contingent on the state positivity and vaccination rates a month before.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
There is a chart someone put together on wikipedia with the prevalence of the variant. Over the last few weeks the US numbers have been.In January the CDC warning was the UK variant could become the dominant strain in the US by March.
That prediction has not come true. As recent as 4 days ago the UK variant only accounts for 10% of Covid cases. It’s up from the level it was at, but nowhere near the dominant strain.
UK coronavirus variant now accounts for 10% of US cases, CDC director says
The coronavirus variant first detected in the U.K. late last year now accounts for up to 10% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., officials said Friday.
There‘s no guarantee it won’t increase still or that another variant could emerge and become dominant, but this highlights that the warnings about possible scenarios aren’t a guarantee they come true. Same goes for the need of a booster shot for variants. That could very well happen as well but it could also be a warning that doesn‘t come true either.
| Florida[113][116] | SGTF*Seq.% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 19.1% |
| United States[113][116] | SGTF*Seq.% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.05% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 12.9% |
| California[113][116] | SGTF*Seq.% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 15.3% |
In other countries the next weeks have jumped to ~30%, ~50%, because that's what the growth rate looks like. Feel free to dismiss the entire scenario because the prediction might have been off by 2 weeks.
SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant - Wikipedia
EDIT: The entry also says for the US, "The variant was expected to become dominant on March 8 for Florida, March 23 for United States, April 5 for California. The link for the source of these dates: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159v1
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Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Lifting indoor restrictions, though, will give venues for multiple small contingents to mix.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I’m just saying it’s not guaranteed to happen just because someone warns it might. The article I posted said it would be dominant by March in the US. It is not. That’s a fact. That doesn’t mean it won’t be dominant at some point, just that not every negative projection is a lock to come true.There is a chart someone put together on wikipedia with the prevalence of the variant. Over the last few weeks the US numbers have been.
Florida[113][116] SGTF*Seq.% – – – – – – – – – 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 2.3% 4.6% 8.1% 10.9% 14.9% 19.1% United States[113][116] SGTF*Seq.% – – – – – – – – – 0.05% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0% 1.7% 2.9% 4.4% 7.1% 12.9% California[113][116] SGTF*Seq.% – – – – – – – – – 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 2.0% 3.1% 5.2% 15.3%
In other countries the next weeks have jumped to ~30%, ~50%, because that's what the growth rate looks like. Feel free to dismiss the entire scenario because the prediction might have been off by 2 weeks.
SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
EDIT: The entry also says for the US, "The variant was expected to become dominant on March 8 for Florida, March 23 for United States, April 5 for California. The link for the source of these dates: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159v1
carolina_yankee
Well-Known Member
In NJ cases have plateaued or increased. NY Times has us up 3% over two weeks ago. The feeling at the pressers seems to be we are at the start of a fourth wave of infections but that hospitalizations may stay the same or continue to decline.
I personally think weather over the last month and reduced testing as a result may have had us artificially lower, but time will tell. Health officials do seem to expect an increase before another decrease in the next couple of weeks.
We did open dining further and increased capacity for sports so we’re not shutting down. All of that was also too recent to be the cause of the increases.
The mantra seems to be the end is coming but it’s a not here yet. Keep up the precautions and vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Yeah...they’re a bit behind on the messaging here.
As if anyone was waiting on this...
Miss Bella
Well-Known Member
Didn't the same thing happen in around August?
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