Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[hopemax]

How does that work, even in theory? We're vaccinating 2 million a day with a third vax that's much easier to distribute coming online. Where is this fourth wave coming from?

The fourth wave is from the UK variant, that since December, have been predicted to become the dominant strain in the US in March. Now we're in March and we will see what happens; like a mid-term exam. It's not expected to be like winter, but more like the bumps that hit certain areas over the summer. This is why there are so many eyes watching the drop in cases that we have been experiencing that has flatlined this week. Is it the early warning sign of the predicted bump? We won't have to wait long to find out. It's not a "nebulous sometime, maybe" thing, but an imminent thing.

 

[DisneyFan32]

The fourth wave is from the UK variant, that since December, have been predicted to become the dominant strain in the US in March. Now we're in March and we will see what happens; like a mid-term exam. It's not expected to be like winter, but more like the bumps that hit certain areas over the summer. This is why there are so many eyes watching the drop in cases that we have been experiencing that has flatlined this week. Is it the early warning sign of the predicted bump? We won't have to wait long to find out. It's not a "nebulous sometime, maybe" thing, but an imminent thing.

So it might won't happen because many people in US are getting vaccine this month and next month.

 

[Kevin_W]

Do you think there's a large contingent of people who will change their behavior because restrictions are lifted? People who want to party without masks have been partying without masks even with restrictions in place. People who want to wear masks are going to wear masks even with restrictions lifted.

I think that's a very good point. I think there are a small contingent that will change. But I agree that people that want to party without masks have largely been doing that.

 

[Patcheslee]

Was just at the pediatrician's office 3/1 and there was a flyer looking for kids under 18 to participate in trials. If you're interested in taking part, it might be worth contacting either your pediatrician's office or a nearby university that might be running trials.

She can't participate in trials due to allergic reactions to past immunizations.

 

[hopemax]

So it might won't happen because many people in US are getting vaccine this month and next month.

You don't want to ask me, I'm the negative nelly. Only 16% of the US population has received a first dose, which leaves a lot of people still eligible to get infected. A vaccine given next month will not help with this. But with so many elderly, and vulnerable people having completed their doses, a spike in cases will hopefully not turn into a spike in deaths.

 

[havoc315]

With all of the bumbling incompetence and dishonesty of the Trump administration, anyone who denies the tremendous success of Operation Warp Speed is partisan beyond reason.

The Trump administration mishandled Covid in countless ways. But absolutely — operation Warp Speed was a definite success. And the Trump administration rightfully deserves some of the credit -
As does Germany who primarily funded the Pfizer vaccine, the UK and EU, and the efforts of the pharmaceutical industry, and countless hard working scientists.

The speed at which we developed a vaccine was truly record setting.

 

[GoofGoof]

The fourth wave is from the UK variant, that since December, have been predicted to become the dominant strain in the US in March. Now we're in March and we will see what happens; like a mid-term exam. It's not expected to be like winter, but more like the bumps that hit certain areas over the summer. This is why there are so many eyes watching the drop in cases that we have been experiencing that has flatlined this week. Is it the early warning sign of the predicted bump? We won't have to wait long to find out. It's not a "nebulous sometime, maybe" thing, but an imminent thing.

In January the CDC warning was the UK variant could become the dominant strain in the US by March.

CDC warns UK coronavirus mutation might be the dominant strain in the US by March

That prediction has not come true. As recent as 4 days ago the UK variant only accounts for 10% of Covid cases. It’s up from the level it was at, but nowhere near the dominant strain.

UK coronavirus variant now accounts for 10% of US cases, CDC director says

The coronavirus variant first detected in the U.K. late last year now accounts for up to 10% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., officials said Friday.

www.foxnews.com

There‘s no guarantee it won’t increase still or that another variant could emerge and become dominant, but this highlights that the warnings about possible scenarios aren’t a guarantee they come true. Same goes for the need of a booster shot for variants. That could very well happen as well but it could also be a warning that doesn‘t come true either.

 

[hopemax]

I'm not being argumentative, I'm asking a sincere question.

Do you think there's a large contingent of people who will change their behavior because restrictions are lifted? People who want to party without masks have been partying without masks even with restrictions in place. People who want to wear masks are going to wear masks even with restrictions lifted.

The impact will be on people working. If you are a server in a restaurant at half capacity vs one that is 100%, you're risk of exposure goes up. If your boss told you to wear a mask before, and now is telling you not to (because you know there will be bosses that do that) your exposure goes up. And Texas is not prioritizing essential workers for vaccines.

 

[Figgy1]

The impact will be on people working. If you are a server in a restaurant at half capacity vs one that is 100%, you're risk of exposure goes up. If your boss told you to wear a mask before, and now is telling you not to (because you know there will be bosses that do that) your exposure goes up. And Texas is not prioritizing essential workers for vaccines.

What?????????? Nothing for front line workers??????? Grocery stores, servers, librarians and so on

 

[danlb_2000]

I think that's a very good point. I think there are a small contingent that will change. But I agree that people that want to party without masks have largely been doing that.

Yes, but now they will be able to do it around people who haven't been partying without masks proving more sources for spread.

 

[Patcheslee]

Now E3 2021 live event, San Diego Comic Con 2021 are postpone to next year, is NYCC 2021 will be still happen now?

That's a long way away. There's still plans for the county fair in July and Oktoberfest to occur here, but they are contingent on the state positivity and vaccination rates a month before.

 

[hopemax]

In January the CDC warning was the UK variant could become the dominant strain in the US by March.

CDC warns UK coronavirus mutation might be the dominant strain in the US by March

That prediction has not come true. As recent as 4 days ago the UK variant only accounts for 10% of Covid cases. It’s up from the level it was at, but nowhere near the dominant strain.

UK coronavirus variant now accounts for 10% of US cases, CDC director says

The coronavirus variant first detected in the U.K. late last year now accounts for up to 10% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., officials said Friday.

www.foxnews.com

There‘s no guarantee it won’t increase still or that another variant could emerge and become dominant, but this highlights that the warnings about possible scenarios aren’t a guarantee they come true. Same goes for the need of a booster shot for variants. That could very well happen as well but it could also be a warning that doesn‘t come true either.

There is a chart someone put together on wikipedia with the prevalence of the variant. Over the last few weeks the US numbers have been.

Florida[113][116]	SGTF*Seq.%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.2%	0.5%	0.9%	1.0%	2.3%	4.6%	8.1%	10.9%	14.9%	19.1%
United States[113][116]	SGTF*Seq.%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.05%	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%	1.0%	1.7%	2.9%	4.4%	7.1%	12.9%
California[113][116]	SGTF*Seq.%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.3%	0.3%	0.7%	1.1%	1.3%	1.9%	2.0%	3.1%	5.2%	15.3%

In other countries the next weeks have jumped to ~30%, ~50%, because that's what the growth rate looks like. Feel free to dismiss the entire scenario because the prediction might have been off by 2 weeks.

SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

EDIT: The entry also says for the US, "The variant was expected to become dominant on March 8 for Florida, March 23 for United States, April 5 for California. The link for the source of these dates: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159v1

 

[Heppenheimer]

I think that's a very good point. I think there are a small contingent that will change. But I agree that people that want to party without masks have largely been doing that.

Lifting indoor restrictions, though, will give venues for multiple small contingents to mix.

 

[GoofGoof]

There is a chart someone put together on wikipedia with the prevalence of the variant. Over the last few weeks the US numbers have been.

Florida[113][116]	SGTF*Seq.%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.2%	0.5%	0.9%	1.0%	2.3%	4.6%	8.1%	10.9%	14.9%	19.1%
United States[113][116]	SGTF*Seq.%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.05%	0.2%	0.4%	0.5%	1.0%	1.7%	2.9%	4.4%	7.1%	12.9%
California[113][116]	SGTF*Seq.%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.3%	0.3%	0.7%	1.1%	1.3%	1.9%	2.0%	3.1%	5.2%	15.3%

In other countries the next weeks have jumped to ~30%, ~50%, because that's what the growth rate looks like. Feel free to dismiss the entire scenario because the prediction might have been off by 2 weeks.

SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

EDIT: The entry also says for the US, "The variant was expected to become dominant on March 8 for Florida, March 23 for United States, April 5 for California. The link for the source of these dates: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.06.21251159v1

I’m just saying it’s not guaranteed to happen just because someone warns it might. The article I posted said it would be dominant by March in the US. It is not. That’s a fact. That doesn’t mean it won’t be dominant at some point, just that not every negative projection is a lock to come true.

 

[znolan]

Trying to plan our trip for May and they obviously only have their generic hours listed right now. Does anyone know which days are the longer days at the different parks on usual?

 

[carolina_yankee]

The fourth wave is from the UK variant, that since December, have been predicted to become the dominant strain in the US in March. Now we're in March and we will see what happens; like a mid-term exam. It's not expected to be like winter, but more like the bumps that hit certain areas over the summer. This is why there are so many eyes watching the drop in cases that we have been experiencing that has flatlined this week. Is it the early warning sign of the predicted bump? We won't have to wait long to find out. It's not a "nebulous sometime, maybe" thing, but an imminent thing.

In NJ cases have plateaued or increased. NY Times has us up 3% over two weeks ago. The feeling at the pressers seems to be we are at the start of a fourth wave of infections but that hospitalizations may stay the same or continue to decline.

I personally think weather over the last month and reduced testing as a result may have had us artificially lower, but time will tell. Health officials do seem to expect an increase before another decrease in the next couple of weeks.

We did open dining further and increased capacity for sports so we’re not shutting down. All of that was also too recent to be the cause of the increases.

The mantra seems to be the end is coming but it’s a not here yet. Keep up the precautions and vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate.

 

[GoofGoof]

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Isn't that what they were saying a couple of days ago?
Pretty sure I heard that exact message during an interview. Guess they want to make it official and he had the prepress copy

Yeah...they’re a bit behind on the messaging here.

As if anyone was waiting on this...

 

[Miss Bella]

View attachment 536883

Didn't the same thing happen in around August?

 

[Miss Bella]

Trying to plan our trip for May and they obviously only have their generic hours listed right now. Does anyone know which days are the longer days at the different parks on usual?

I would look at which parks have longer days in March and base it on that.